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WCQ: Third Round - Window 2 (October 7-13, 2021)

Yoginess

By Yoginess
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canadasoccer20 Community Regular

canadasoccer20

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, jtpc said:

Fantastic results in the other matches. Honduras and Costa Rica draw. El Salvador keeps Panama at 5 points.

I think both of those results are great for us. What a chance on Wednesday to put some additional space between us and Panama.

I really don't think it could have gone any better tbh. USA won but Mexico and USA I hypothetically have in the top 3 imo so win isn't terrible and worsens Jamaicas demeanor I am sure and Honduras and Costa Rica minimizes points for both and El Salvador is a non threat so a win against Panama who had a hot start to qualifying could be massive because they have some a favourable home stadium. I think the other 3 matches went just about perfect!

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footballfreak
footballfreak

I haven’t posted here in a long time, so apologies if this turns into an essay. To those who are suggesting we go for it against Mexico, here’s a couple thoughts: Last window was one of the

El Hombre
El Hombre

This El Salvador-Mexico game is boring as shit.  Where are the 50 yard runs?  Where are the 4 dribbles in a row?  Where are the touchline scrums that empty the benches? Garbage.  Pure garbage.  

El Hombre
El Hombre

I did a similar analysis but I used Excel, so I think it might be a bit more accurate:

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CanadaFan123 Grand Master

CanadaFan123

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Jedi Ram said:

Updated simulations after match day #4 based on Elo and Monte Carlo stats - courtesy of reddit/el_noido

image.png.7a21091a723b8ba0bd7a5a158c2d1a3d.png

This doesn’t logically make sense. We have collected 50% of points from 4 games... if we lose in Jamaica and Panama wins vs USA they’re ahead of us. The margins are way too close to go off something so silly. 

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SthMelbRed Veteran

SthMelbRed

Posted
Posted

If you did a 'Strength of Schedule' modifier on the table thus far, Canada would definitely have the hardest fixtures, along with Jamaica. We're still on 6 points from 4 games, while they're on 1. We definitely are looking like the real deal. We need to now make hay against the lower half teams while we can. Six more points in this window and four in Edmonton and we'll all be on tables helicoptering our junk while we research the words to the Qatari national anthem.

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Floortom Grand Master

Floortom

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, CanadaFan123 said:

This doesn’t logically make sense. We have collected 50% of points from 4 games... if we lose in Jamaica and Panama wins vs USA they’re ahead of us. The margins are way too close to go off something so silly. 

It’s ELO based - it makes perfect sense. You say “if we lose in Jamaica and Panama wins vs USA they’re ahead of us” - well sure. But based on ELO rankings the combined chance of that happening is less than 7%.  That strikes me as being a bit low but it’s just math.

Also, we collected 50% of points from 4 matches but half of those matches are the two toughest (at Mexico and and USA). Panama hasn’t played at either team and only Jamaica has played away to both like us  

 

 

 

 

 

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mrstepp817 Community Regular

mrstepp817

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Panama is now a desperate team with the US coming Sunday and an away game in Toronto things could go from bad to worse in a hurry...if they lose to the US and Canada pulls 3 from Jamaica all of a sudden they could be staring at the possibility of Canada being 7 points clear...and the US and Mexico being as much as 9 points clear

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Floortom Grand Master

Floortom

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4 minutes ago, mrstepp817 said:

Panama is now a desperate team with the US coming Sunday and an away game in Toronto things could go from bad to worse in a hurry...if they lose to the US and Canada pulls 3 from Jamaica all of a sudden they could be staring at the possibility of Canada being 7 points clear...and the US and Mexico being as much as 9 points clear

The good thing is that Panama needs to go all out vs the US. They're going to play their best XI and sink or swim. It's great that we're getting them worn down at home in Game 3. 

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El Hombre Grand Master

El Hombre

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Posted
58 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

Holy shit these next two games are massive.   Not sure how I am going to get through the next week.  Far too early for anything definitive but imagine adding 7 points this window.   

No joke.  Sunday is going to be tough.  Thanksgiving with the family and undoubtedly there will be a round table about what we're thankful for and I'm pretty sure I'll blurt out: "Well, I would be really thankful if we could just hurry this along because I have places to be.  Chop chop Grandma."

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gator Grand Master

gator

Posted
Posted
Just now, El Hombre said:

No joke.  Sunday is going to be tough.  Thanksgiving with the family and undoubtedly there will be a round table about what we're thankful for and I'm pretty sure I'll blurt out: "Well, I would be really thankful if we could just hurry this along because I have places to be.  Chop chop Grandma."

Ha, I have already mentioned to the wife it would be nice to have supper after 8, she understands!

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Mattd97 Experienced

Mattd97

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Posted
1 minute ago, shorty said:

Honestly, guys. We had Thanksgiving dinner organized at our house for Saturday weeks ago. Sheesh. Herdman would not be impressed with your advanced scouting. 
 

🤓

Some of us have two families to see! No ones down for a Monday Thanksgiving dinner, but wait four years when we're defending world cup darlings doing this again and I'm hoping for a more enthusiastic response

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mrstepp817 Community Regular

mrstepp817

Posted
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48 minutes ago, Floortom said:

The good thing is that Panama needs to go all out vs the US. They're going to play their best XI and sink or swim. It's great that we're getting them worn down at home in Game 3. 

Absolutely and if they go all out Sunday vs the US and get anything less than 3 you are going to see a deflated and tired team in Toronto Wednesday

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maplebanana Experienced

maplebanana

Posted
Posted

One thing I just noticed in the scheduling: For our next 4 matches, the USA plays that team immediately preceding us. So if that team gets yellow cards against the USA they are out for the Canada match (JAM, PAN, CRC then MEX). 

I wish the USA team all the luck in the world in drawing yellow cards. Play scrappy, my yankee friends.

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El Diego Mentor

El Diego

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, shorty said:

Honestly, guys. We had Thanksgiving dinner organized at our house for Saturday weeks ago. Sheesh. Herdman would not be impressed with your advanced scouting. 
 

🤓

"You know, Thanksgiving dinner is something we've really had to suffer through. We're content with the one plate, but are a bit disappointed because there were three plates for the taking. Still, it's remarkable what the lads have done, putting on that type of performance in Grandma's House. Not many people can go in and say they've done that."

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