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WCQ: Third Round - Window 2 (October 7-13, 2021)

Yoginess

By Yoginess
in Men's National Teams

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footballfreak
footballfreak

I haven’t posted here in a long time, so apologies if this turns into an essay. To those who are suggesting we go for it against Mexico, here’s a couple thoughts: Last window was one of the

El Hombre
El Hombre

This El Salvador-Mexico game is boring as shit.  Where are the 50 yard runs?  Where are the 4 dribbles in a row?  Where are the touchline scrums that empty the benches? Garbage.  Pure garbage.  

El Hombre
El Hombre

I did a similar analysis but I used Excel, so I think it might be a bit more accurate:

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dyslexic nam Grand Master

dyslexic nam

Posted
Posted

Tonight I am hoping for: 

- A Canada win.  Obvs.  9 points from the first 5 games would be immense - especially with one more home game to come this window.  Plus another strong away performance would keep building the kind of self belief that will serve us well in the remaining away games.

- A draw between CR and ES would be ideal to minimize their total points.  But I am fine with pretty much any outcome since I think we will handle these two teams.  I guess if there has to be a winner, I would opt for CR.

- A US win away to Panama would be a big help.  While a really confident US road team would definitely present a challenge for us later, having them take home points off Panama could help open up a gap between us and 4th place.    

- Mexico beating Honduras in Azteca will hopefully happen and would be pretty huge.  That would keep Honduras stuck on 3 points after 5 games and would make their next two home games (against Jamaica and Panama) absolutely crucial. 

—————

This is probably the most excited I have even been for a series of CMNT games.  It is ridiculous how much I am enjoying this process.  
 

 

 

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Cblake Grand Master

Cblake

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

If the ball doesn't bounce they'll call the game and we'll be required to reschedule. So it is a bit risky, frankly, because we may end up playing Mexico some other time, and not in our terms.

The US was lucky that match because Dempsey scored early, then the snow came hard and they kept playing, when it most definitely should have been called. By second half it was unplayable, and unplayable is a called or postponed match. CR ended up qualifying for the WC regardless. 

BTW that was played in March in Denver, so you might think it was not as risky as our doing Edmonton in November. The only time I was in Colorado I got caught in a major snowstorm in mid-May in the Front Range, my bus got stuck in the snow and slipped into a ditch. 

I am still amazed to this day that match was not called. When it was briefly halted I truly believe that if Costa Rica made a stink about it and insisted on a postponement, it would have been stopped at that point in time. 

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Sal333 Grand Master

Sal333

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

Tonight I am hoping for: 

- A Canada win.  Obvs.  9 points from the first 5 games would be immense - especially with one more home game to come this window.  Plus another strong away performance would keep building the kind of self belief that will serve us well in the remaining away games.

- A draw between CR and ES would be ideal to minimize their total points.  But I am fine with pretty much any outcome since I think we will handle these two teams.  I guess if there has to be a winner, I would opt for CR.

- A US win away to Panama would be a big help.  While a really confident US road team would definitely present a challenge for us later, having them take home points off Panama could help open up a gap between us and 4th place.    

- Mexico beating Honduras in Azteca will hopefully happen and would be pretty huge.  That would keep Honduras stuck on 3 points after 5 games and would make their next two home games (against Jamaica and Panama) absolutely crucial. 

—————

This is probably the most excited I have even been for a series of CMNT games.  It is ridiculous how much I am enjoying this process.  
 

 

 

I agree with most of your post except for the USA win. I want them to tie Panama. Why? Because I know we can be competitive with the USA for top spot. A tie would give them 9 points and 6 to Panama. We would be top dog or 2nd dog (if Mexico wins). I know the objective is to go to Qatar but I want this team to go to Qatar and have the confidence to make it to the round of 16. Finishing first (or even second) in the qualification round will help to instill swagger in this team.

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apbsmith Experienced

apbsmith

Posted
Posted (edited)

I'm very similar to @dyslexic nam

I wouldn't over look CRC yet.

Costa Rica, yes are past their prime but still have a class keeper, are experienced, know how to grind out results and no way do they take the same approach vs us away in November like the GC.

Arguably, Costa Rica's only bad result so far was dropping points to Jamaica at home. Losing to Mexico is expected and they got 2 away results.  

Further the distance, the better, so I'm cheering for the tie :).

Canada - win 

Mexico - win

Costa Rica/EL Salvador - tie

Panama/US - tie

*Don't think US hype train is locked in yet, I could see US potentially tying next two games which puts them at only 10 points* ... Plus I want the US team back on the pressure cooker :)

Edited by apbsmith
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dyslexic nam Grand Master

dyslexic nam

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Sal333 said:

I agree with most of your post except for the USA win. I want them to tie Panama. Why? Because I know we can be competitive with the USA for top spot. A tie would give them 9 points and 6 to Panama. We would be top dog or 2nd dog (if Mexico wins). I know the objective is to go to Qatar but I want this team to go to Qatar and have the confidence to make it to the round of 16. Finishing first (or even second) in the qualification round will help to instill swagger in this team.

I guess I would rather a clear top 3 of Canada, Mexico and the US.  Not out of any love for the other 3, but I think Mexico and the US are both top 3 teams this cycle so any results that move points from them to the other teams let’s the rest of the pack get closer to us.   

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An Observer Veteran

An Observer

Posted
Posted

The Panama result definitely puts them as one of the favourites to qualify and puts added pressure on us to get 3 points on Weds.  It also keeps the US in the mix.

I think Costa Rica will hang around but I don’t think they will take any of the top 3 spots. They could sneak into 4th if one of the US, Panama or us falters. 

I think the rest of the sides are pretty much out of it (assuming the Mexico wins tonight) but the point Jamaica took against us will at least give them some hope to not through the towel in yet.

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sstackho Experienced

sstackho

Posted
Posted

FWIW, here's what el_noido's simulation model looks like after Game 5. 

image.png.81cfa328766ff0ae45beafd289303366.png

Remember that this is an Elo-based model, so it implicitly assumes that teams with better Elo ratings (USA, Canada) will get better future results than lower rated teams (Panama).  It also considers quality of opponents and home/away factors. 

Here is how the Top 3 simulations look depending on the results of the next match against Panama.

image.png.c0d691ff57179cecc3536046a75afa56.png

So, yeah, it's a pretty big game. 

The other Game 6 matches don't move the needle all that much for Canada. 

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