maplebanana

I think so. 3 or less caps (of which at least one is official) and you can still switch, unless one of those caps is a world cup or gold cup game (not qualifier). I forget if nations league counts as '1 cap = cap-tied', but his 2 caps were in nations league qualifying anyway.

That's Lloyd Sam, the English commentator for CBS. I watch all of Canada's games on Paramount Plus but I think that's only available here in the US? He did the commentary for the HON, @JAM games too. He does a bunch of CONCACAF WCQ games if you flip around the channels on Paramount Plus.

Are the rankings point basis calculated from match to match or window to window? Match to match would seem more accurate, but I always thought that was overcomplicating it for FIFA. Happy to be wrong though if you have a reference.

Cool. Considering your original message disparaging the simulations, I would argue you have no clue how these simulations work to begin with. They do not just say 'team A is in position x, therefore will finish position x'. But go ahead and think whatever you want.

Wow. Please point to the area where Monte Carlo simulations hurt you. If you don't like the simulations and you don't agree with them, can you just move on? Some of the rest of us find it insightful.

Further, if we go with the fairly reasonable scenario of Canada beating CRC and losing to Mexico, while CRC beats Honduras, we end the window with 1437.9 and CRC at 1437.35. So *just* sneak into 3rd in CONCACAF.

CRC: Win/Draw/Loss: +12.67 / +0.49 / -12.33 MEX: Win/Draw/Loss: +17.89 / +5.39 / -7.11 Two wins = +30.56. If all other teams around us don't move much, then we'd jump up to 38th, one spot behind Norway.

Perfectly put. Please keep up the analysis (I should figure out how to use el_noido's files too). Don't let people who hate math-based analytics discourage you.

Not sure if this was mentioned elsewhere (apologies, if so), but Keylor Navas got injured yesterday. So much so he was subbed out at half. https://www.marca.com/en/football/psg/2021/10/14/61680be0268e3e9d2d8b459b.html CRC w/o Navas becomes a lot more pedestrian.

Exactly. Otherwise we'd all be bandwagon fans when, every 4 years, we all suddenly become ice dance experts.

Just some random tidbits, looking at the Ocho table: 1) Jamaica: I'm worried they have awakened. They are the only team to play only 2 of their first 6 at home, and both were without fans. And they've gotten their @USA and @MEX matches out of the way. Despite only 5 pts now, they are better than their current 6th place, especially when they get Antonio and Bailey back. 2) El Salvador: They're done. They are the only team with 4 home matches and still have both their away MEX/USA matches to do. We should be cheering for them to act as spoiler against any team they play because they will not threaten 3rd or 4th. To borrow from @footballfreak analysis of 'dropped points': Home: W=0, D=-2, L=-3 Away: W=2, D=0, L=-1 pts/home points/away pts Mexico +2/-2/+4 USA. -1/-2/+1 Canada. -2/-2/0 Panama. -4/-4/0 Costa Rica -6/-5/-1 Jamaica -4/-5/+1 El Salvador. -9/-7/-2 Honduras. -9/-8/-1

5 pts this window, 10 after 6 games. If you had told me we were at 10 after 2 windows before the start of the campaign, I'd have been pleased but not thrilled. I would have thought it'd be 3 home wins against HON/ESV/PAN and a draw away at JAM though. So 2 extremely hard away draws made up for dropped pts at home against HON. Not making it easy on ourselves, but we're on pace. Booking my tickets to Vancouver for January now...

No cards for either team in the USA-CRC game. So no suspensions for the game vs us. I really hope the USA-MEX game gets super scrappy, with red card after red card...

Lloyd Sam, in case any of you are interested.

I'm glad others have discovered this commentator. He's the commentator i've been watching all qualifying campaign, as he's the voice for Paramount+. (but he's English btw)