WCQ: Third Round - Window 2 (October 7-13, 2021)

[Yoginess]

Match 1: vs Mexico 🇲🇽
📍 October 7th  @ Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
🕗  9:40pm EST | 6:40 PST

Match 2: vs Jamaica 🇯🇲
📍 October 10th @ National Stadium Independence Park, Kingston
🕗  6:00pm EST | 3:00pm PST

Match 3: vs Panama 🇵🇦
📍 October 13th @ BMO Field, Toronto
🕢 7:30pm EST | 4:30 PST

 

Standings After Window 1

 

Edited September 10, 2021 by Yoginess
J. David was showing his appreciation a little too much for Atiba

[Strait Red]

Any predictions for player changes from window 1 to window 2?

I don’t think there will be many, maybe Pantemis and Fraser dropped?

Also curious to see if Herdman uses  a 26 man roster this time.

[Yoginess]

It's a weird window. Jamaica and Panama are the key games but only 2 days in between. Don't even know how we handle the squad rotation (kind of wish the Mexico game was 2nd). 

I think it's all hands on deck now and I can see Arfield getting back into the squad

[Floortom]

Punt the mexico match - mostly “b team” and play for an ugly draw.

Jamaica need to go for points. Will be interesting  what happens with this one - will Jamaica be added to the red list? Will they have fans? Possibly this could move to a neutral location.

Panama is an absolute must win so you go all out for that one 

[Yoginess]

14 minutes ago, Floortom said:

Punt the mexico match - mostly “b team” and play for an ugly draw.

Jamaica need to go for points. Will be interesting  what happens with this one - will Jamaica be added to the red list? Will they have fans? Possibly this could move to a neutral location.

Panama is an absolute must win so you go all out for that one 

Go B team in Mexico and throw out some supersubs if you're in it with 20 to go. 

Go all out in Jamaica for a result

Hope you have enough gas to get the result against Panama

[apbsmith]

Panama also has a tricky window to navigate. 

#1 @ El Salvador , I see them playing an A squad here as other teams have gotten road results in El Salvador thus big pressure is on them to do the same. 

#2 USA @ home , they may rotate this game but being at home you need to get your points at home.  

#3 @ Canada hopefully some fatigue sets in for them and the long travel. However, they know the importance of this game as many people have us finishing in the #3-#5 range which they believe they are in also and thus need points vs us. 

Huge DEPTH window imo.

Edited September 10, 2021 by apbsmith
Spelling

[OhCanadaOhBaby]

Knowing Herdman and this team's attitude thus far, I expect nothing but a full out best squad possible every game. They expect to win every game with whatever team they field and I would find it hard to believe they would fully (maybe partially) field a so-called "B Team" in this next window. 

[apbsmith]

1 minute ago, OhCanadaOhBaby said:

Knowing Herdman and this team's attitude thus far, I expect nothing but a full out best squad possible every game. They expect to win every game with whatever team they field and I would find it hard to believe they would fully (maybe partially) field a so-called "B Team" in this next window. 

Agree, but honestly, even our so called "B team" if set up properly for a road result is not even necessarily a B team. 

My major concern is Mexico being red listed over anything for our Euro boys. 

[apbsmith]

What is the update on Mexico with no fans in stadiums for homophobic chants? 

Did Fifa allow the women's game to count as an official match or does the ban include the game vs us? 

[PiedPilko]

8 minutes ago, Yoginess said:

Go B team in Mexico and throw out some supersubs if you're in it with 20 to go. 

Go all out in Jamaica for a result

Hope you have enough gas to get the result against Panama

I think we're at the point where much of our depth is interchangeable. We rotated 5 players between the Honduras and U.S game but still had basically the same quality 11 both times. 

I think the only question at this point is whether Davies can start all 3 games, and by the sound of it, Herdman sure thought so.

[Yoginess]

Just now, PiedPilko said:

I think we're at the point where much of our depth is interchangeable. We rotated 5 players between the Honduras and U.S game but still had basically the same quality 11 both times. 

I think the only question at this point is whether Davies can start all 3 games, and by the sound of it, Herdman sure thought so.

Before he came off against the States, Davies looked gassed. Didn't stop him blowing past defenders but that would be a tough ask. Granted he expended a TON of energy vs Honduras.

[Kadenge]

a squad of 23, including 3 keepers and Cav, was dicey in window 1. We  carried 7 mids and mostly went with a 2 mid formation with Laryea sometimes playing as some sort of hybrid mid. 3 mids had very little to no playing time and Kennedy had less than a half. Our forwards/wingbacks were over worked. This window is much more difficult so I do hope we have a larger squad and we bring additional forwards and wingbacks. We also need a back up for Alistair at RCB....perhaps James if he is playing consistently. He has the speed for a RCB and WCQ experience. 

Edited September 11, 2021 by Kadenge

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

53 minutes ago, Strait Red said:

maybe Pantemis...dropped?

If we drop Pantemis, who is our 3rd choice keeper?

Leutwiler is just getting himself established at his new club and the level is not superb (League 2 England). St. Clair isn't getting as much playing time in MLS these days. Do we bring Breza into the fold? A CanPL player?

53 minutes ago, Strait Red said:

maybe...Fraser dropped?

Also curious to see if Herdman uses  a 26 man roster this time.

I don't think Fraser is dropped. I just think we move to a 26 or 27-man squad.

 

13 minutes ago, PiedPilko said:

whether Davies can start all 3 games

No. These three games will be different. A match ~2250 metres (Mexico City) and then a match in the afternoon tropical heat and humidity (Kingston). Not going to happen. Play in all three? Yes. I think he starts in 2 of them and comes in as a sub in the 3rd.

---

My pet theories:

- Instead of playing 3 matches like in this past window, Hutchinson will only play in  2 and get the caps record in front of the fans at BMO Field ( as @El Hombre suggested).

- Arfield will get invited but only play two of the three matches.

- Hoilett will play in all 3 matches but won't play 90 minutes in any of them

Edited September 11, 2021 by Olympique_de_Marseille

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

20 minutes ago, apbsmith said:

What is the update on Mexico with no fans in stadiums for homophobic chants? 

Did Fifa allow the women's game to count as an official match or does the ban include the game vs us? 

The ban was reduced to only one match (already served). There will be fans in the stands against us in Mexico City.

[The Beaver 2.0]

Yeah, I've a feeling we might play our A-selection in Mexico, then rotate a bit for Jamaica, likely keeping Davies and one or two others on the bench and only bringing them on if we need them at the 60 - 65 minute mark.  And then the A-selection home against Panama. As a few of you have already suggested, we are going to need the right reinforcements to make this successful, which means if we play a very compact 4-5-1, we are going to need some help on the wings, and some coverage for Alistair "I Eat Babies for Lunch" Johnston. I would expect a similar formation against Jamaica: tough to break down defensively; deadly on the counter. While I like Arfield as an option at CM, I think he can play out wide if need be, yes?  I know he does not have the wheels to be a winger, but we need defensive depth and intelligence on the ball. We know he'll work his ass off.

But without a doubt, Herdman and his staff are preparing meticulously as we speak.

[dyslexic nam]

I have said this elsewhere but I am targeting 6 points from this window.  

I would use the Mexico game to go deep into our bench with an emphasis on resting our best attackers.  I would play a defensive setup like a 4-5-1 with Cavallini up front to smash and bash their defenders for as long as possible.  Piette would get the start to play the role of destroyer, possibly alongside Eustaquio (who seems to have limitless energy) or Hutch in a defensive double pivot.  I would have the bulk of Davies, Buchanan, Hoilett, Laryea and David on the bench - and some could even stay home.  Maybe have one speedster on to threaten on the counter.  Haven’t fully thought that part through, but the overarching idea would clearly be to limit the minutes of our best attackers. They sub in late to go for the win if it is close or just to give the starters a break to avoid injury.  The game wouldn’t be treated like a throwaway but it would be an attempt to bunker for a low scoring draw.   Anything else in the altitude of Azteca, with two crucial games immediately following, and I think we are asking for trouble.  I know we could go for it in Mexico and maybe get a draw (can’t see a win) but I am not sure the single point is worth the risk if it threatens the other results.  For me, the tactical focus would be on games 2 and 3. 

That strategy in Mexico would leave our best 11 fresh for the away game in Jamaica (which I think we can win) and the home game to Panama (which, like the game against ES, is another must win).  I really think we could take all 6 points available in those two games.  And if we did that, we would be sitting on 11 points - halfway to the kind of tally required to get to Qatar after only 6 games.  
 

I am sure there are flaws in this approach, and as other have pointed out, it seems unlikely that Herdman won’t go for it in Mexico, but the idea of realistically getting 6 points is just too tempting to me. Getting a win in Jamaica in the second game would set us up to be very much in control of our destiny at that point.  

[Craig11rm]

We could put out a line up similar to what we put out against Mexico in the gold cup except Cav instead of Tesho. I think there could be a big benefit to playing MLS based players in the first game of each window because of the time difference for the European players.

[apbsmith]

3 hours ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

No. These three games will be different. A match ~2250 metres (Mexico City) and then a match in the afternoon tropical heat and humidity (Kingston). Not going to happen. Play in all three? Yes. I think he starts in 2 of them and comes in as a sub in the 3rd.

 

Man altitude games and being at altitude are a different animal. 

Even post being at altitude can take up to 3 days to recover, just from changes in red blood cells from basic oxygen intake. With our boss being an attention to detail specialist, I wonder if a handful of guys on our squad don't even go to Mexico to avoid altitude altogether.

Altitude also gets tricky when you should  arrive, I think if you are in an out within 36 hours it's the least amount of negative effect on body but still has effects. 

There are types of medications approved by WADA you can take to help reduce any altitude side effects, short and long term 3-5 days.

We use to use this guy for endurance sports at altitude... Maybe someone from CSA can click forward to Herdman, so they can have a chat, if they have not already :). He's the best, legit. 

http://www.csicalgary.ca/en/dr-david-smith

"He has spent 30 years conducting altitude training with Olympic athletes, working with coaches at many different altitude training camps around the world."

Edited September 11, 2021 by apbsmith
Herdman - auto correct

[Christian B.]

I want to be realistic here. A 1 goal loss in Mexico and a 1 goal win in Jamaica and also at home against Panama would be amazing and is clearly attainable. That would give us 11 points after 6 games.

[Unnamed Trialist]

Couple things

1-I think if we are aspiring to be third, we can't throw the Mexico game. It is a poor approach to a 14 match season we are in the midst of. We have to try to get a result, and of course if we can get deep into the match and be drawn or close, even more so. This is the same as saying if you are Watford you can't go to Man City and roll over, nothing more. Having a good match is something we can take forward with us to Jamaica, while rolling over then creates a negative dynamic, and shows rivals we are vulnerable. Further: Jamaica almost got a result in Mexico City, if they see we are nowhere near that, it'll also make us look weaker in their eyes. 

2-For travel, we really should send our players directly to a hotel with training facilities in Mexico, near the capital but not in it. Was speaking about this with a fellow V yesterday over breakfast. None of this going to TO first. There are direct Turkish Air flights to DF, so keep it simple. London-DF, and from NA destinations too. Get our players there and forget about trying to gather beforehand in Toronto, adding an extra flight and even time zones to the endeavour. It is a major enough destination to enable this from pretty well everywhere, even Korea. 

3-After watching Cavallini today for the Caps, and the other day for Canada. He's really fallen off form. Unless he can get it back this next month, I have my doubts. While I think having a target like that is useful and gives us another option, he has not looked effective for a while now. But if we were not to call up Cav, or had doubts about his form, where do we go to call up someone with a similar skill set? 

4-Related: for sure we'll see some things this month which will justify some alterations in the call-up. But as others have said, the only ones we could consider now are the third keeper, whether Liam Fraser would go, or cases like Liam Miller (I am for bringing him in), or Derek Cornelius if we thought, with possible second yellow cards, a CB might get suspended a match. Corbeanu only if he is on form and taking him from his club is really necessary. The only other possible suprise, related to above about Cavallini, would be Richie Ennin.

 

Edited September 11, 2021 by Unnamed Trialist

[apbsmith]

As for your #3 @Unnamed Trialist- 100% bang on, no point in flying to Canada first if can be avoided. Lots of direct flight to Mexico. 

Not overly playing devil's advocate, but I always found 3rd day at altitude to be the hardest on lungs and tiring on body. Goes back to the "in and out" altitude approach.  Wonder if anything within reason with a little less pollution with lower altitude could work. 

Edited September 11, 2021 by apbsmith

[baulderdash77]

I’m glad that we’re playing in Mexico 1st and not 3rd match day.

We the the opportunity to get acclimated to the Mexico altitude first which is great.

The best case scenario is 7 points with a draw, win, win.

I think winning both the last 2 legs is the key and important for qualification.  We need to get a solid win in Jamaica.  
 

4 points out of this window would be a bit of a disappoint whereas 6 points will put us in the drivers seat for direct qualification.

[Floortom]

I would be more than pleased with 4 points from this window. That would keep us right on track for qualification. Obviously 6 would be amazing but the match at Mexico is realistically a write off and at Jamaica won’t be easy.

[Free kick]

The order of the opponents is tricky with this window. If the Away game with Jamaica were first up and followed by the other away game with Mexico, that would be much better. Whats going to be the effect of playing at altitude of mexico city (2250 metres) from the get go and then have to travel to Jamaica (9 metres altitude)?  
The two games that you have to get points in are the 2nd and 3rd matches and they are only 2 days apart.

Edited September 11, 2021 by Free kick

[trc2014]

You also need to consider players on yellows and whether you want to make sure they are in the Jamaica or Panama game, therefore not worth risking them the game before:

Buchanan 

Adekugbe

Kaye

Laryea

Vitoria