WCQ: Third Round - Window 2 (October 7-13, 2021)

[Fullback]

14 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

So can clubs refuse to release players in January or is it just a matter of them pressuring the players to “voluntarily” decline the call.   I know Tajon will be will want to settle into his new club quickly, but I also suspect that the guys are pretty bought into the Team Canada vision and would want to do what they could to get us to Qatar.  

I’m pretty sure they can’t. It’s a full international window, if the players want to go I don’t think there’s anything the clubs can really do.

I would be shocked if we have anything less than a full strength squad

[dyslexic nam]

4 minutes ago, Fullback said:

I’m pretty sure they can’t. It’s a full international window, if the players want to go I don’t think there’s anything the clubs can really do.

I would be shocked if we have anything less than a full strength squad

Thanks. That is what I thought, but I definitely wasn’t sure - especially given the craziness of this WCQ process.  

[ardsa]

1 hour ago, sstackho said:

Can we talk about the elephant in the room? 

 

ES has the easiest schedule so far. 3 home matches (1 win and 2 draws) and a crushing in their only away match.

They are below the theorized point average to qualify (21 points - 2 point average at home and 1 point average away).
First 7 games they have 5 home and 2 away. The reverse is true for the last 7.

If they don't win both of their next two they can still be considered off pace (away to CR and home to MEX).

Jamaica has the opposite schedule to ES - one that may be breaking them early. 5 of first 7 away and only 1 home match so far. Mentally it may be breaking them at the best time possible for Canada.

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

6 minutes ago, Fullback said:

I’m pretty sure they can’t. It’s a full international window,

It is indeed a full international window.

As @narduch and I (and maybe others) have suggested in the past, there is nothing stopping the CSA ( if they have the money) from having a Camp Poutine friendly the week before in Houston / Southern California / Florida to get the North American guys back up to fitness.

[Obinna]

ES with the easiest schedule thus far.

Conversely, we are the only team who's played Mexico and USA away. 

[ardsa]

5 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

As @narduch and I (and maybe others) have suggested in the past, there is nothing stopping the CSA ( if they have the money) from having a Camp Poutine friendly the week before in Houston / Southern California / Florida to get the North American guys back up to fitness.

There is no reason not to. Florida would be perfect.
It is likely that they stage/train in Florida before they head to Honduras. 1 week with the North America crew and then have the European guys join for a few days before they head to the jungle.  January is tough travel (Honduras, Vancouver, El Salvador). They would be silly not to get everyone 2/3 of the way to San Pedro Sula as early as possible

[The Beaver 2.0]

Quick note regarding Panama at BMO (and forgive me if this has already been arranged), but have we coordinated with the CSA to make sure we've got 200 or so rabid Canadian fans to greet the players when they get to the stadium? (Instead of 200 or so Panamanian fans?) 

[shorty]

4 hours ago, sstackho said:

Can we talk about the elephant in the room? 

 

Dude… relax:

 

[Greatest Cockney Rip Off]

Speaking of El Salvador…

 

El Salvador: Meet fan who googled players to improve side - and was rewarded with full-time job

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/58820062

Edited October 9, 2021 by Greatest Cockney Rip Off

[nolando]

38 minutes ago, Greatest Cockney Rip Off said:

Speaking of El Salvador…

 

El Salvador: Meet fan who googled players to improve side - and was rewarded with full-time job

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/58820062

There are about a dozen of us here waiting patiently for a first team contract with Herdman.

[Unnamed Trialist]

2 hours ago, Greatest Cockney Rip Off said:

Speaking of El Salvador…

 

El Salvador: Meet fan who googled players to improve side - and was rewarded with full-time job

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/58820062

Great find, super article. 

[Trois Reds]

17 hours ago, Obinna said:

ES with the easiest schedule thus far.

Conversely, we are the only team who's played Mexico and USA away. 

So did Jamaica.

The difference is, we became the first team to get points off both Mexico and the US away in the same qualifier.

Edited October 9, 2021 by Trois Reds

[Approve My Account Pls]

33 minutes ago, Trois Reds said:

So did Jamaica.

The difference is, we became the first team to get points off both Mexico and the US away in the same qualifier.

Can't wait to make it off both on the road and at home 😎

[sstackho]

Thanks to /u/el_noido for sharing his CONCACAF WCQ ELO-based simulation spreadsheet. 

His model currently gives odds of 73.4% that Canada finish in the top 3.  (Not considering 4th place, since 4th place is for suckers...) 

Here is what his model predicts would be the change to Canada's chances of finishing Top 3 for each possible result of tomorrow's matches.  This is to help you decide who to cheer for in the other matches. 

 

Edited October 9, 2021 by sstackho

[narduch]

Capacity increased for Panama game

 

[Sal333]

1 hour ago, Approve My Account Pls said:

Can't wait to make it off both on the road and at home 😎

Except at home we get 6 points. Not two or four.

Edited October 9, 2021 by Sal333

[Sal333]

29 minutes ago, narduch said:

Capacity increased for Panama game

 

Do you know what the capacity will be? CSA needs as many shekels as possible.

[canuckgbp]

On ticketmaster seems a lot has been added to the upper bowl. Must be close to full capacity? 

[king1010]

Just now, canuckgbp said:

On ticketmaster seems a lot has been added to the upper bowl. Must be close to full capacity? 

Its full capacity of tickets released. 28k plus

Edited October 9, 2021 by king1010

[narduch]

10 minutes ago, Sal333 said:

Do you know what the capacity will be? CSA needs as many shekels as possible.

My guess is full capacity. Whether they can sell it out in 3 or 4 days is another question 

[SthMelbRed]

1 minute ago, narduch said:

My guess is full capacity. Whether they can sell it out in 3 or 4 days is another question 

Beat Jamaica in Kingston tomorrow and I think the tickets will sell.

[sstackho]

This chart shows the distribution of outcomes based on how many points Canada obtains after all matches. 

e.g. Canada finishes Top 3 in 71.7% of the scenarios where we finish with 21 points.  (Also, Canada finishes in 1st in all scenarios where we win out from here.)

[dyslexic nam]

17 minutes ago, Sal333 said:

Except at home we get 6 points. Not two or four.

At the risk of being accused of defeatism and cowardice, I will be satisfied if we get 3 points out of the November window when we host both CR and Mexico.  4 would be great considering Mexico will take points off others in away games (and obviously 6 would be ideal) but at the end of the day it is safe to assume we won’t have a perfect campaign from now until the end of WCQ.  There will inevitably be slip ups over the 10 remaining games.  Thus it wouldn’t be crushing if we got through November with a win against CR  and a loss against Mexico.  

[Unnamed Trialist]

9 hours ago, dyslexic nam said:

At the risk of being accused of defeatism and cowardice, I will be satisfied if we get 3 points out of the November window when we host both CR and Mexico.  4 would be great considering Mexico will take points off others in away games (and obviously 6 would be ideal) but at the end of the day it is safe to assume we won’t have a perfect campaign from now until the end of WCQ.  There will inevitably be slip ups over the 10 remaining games.  Thus it wouldn’t be crushing if we got through November with a win against CR  and a loss against Mexico.  

Exactly. Say we get three more out of this window, three more in November, rather modest results most would say.

That would put us on 12 points after 8 matches, on pace for 21 in total. Which likely takes us to Qatar. 

If we are ahead of that, and need less than 9 points in our last 6 matches (four of which will be away), all the better, but even a poor scenario is not a damning scenario.

[CanadaFan123]

22 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Exactly. Say we get three more out of this window, three more in November, rather modest results most would say.

That would put us on 12 points after 8 matches, on pace for 21 in total. Which likely takes us to Qatar. 

If we are ahead of that, and need less than 9 points in our last 6 matches (four of which will be away), all the better, but even a poor scenario is not a damning scenario.

The problem there is that we would need 9 points with only 2 home matches remaining - one of which is against the USA plus away games to Honduras and El Salvador.