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An Observer

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An Observer last won the day on February 21 2017

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  1. I found him insufferable so fine with him not being here. Glad that he was a nicer person in real life
  2. Would be great if the list was sorted by last name or by club; much easier to check to see if someone is missing
  3. Tbh, I am more excited about the upside of Ballou Tabla than Millar from what I have seen of them; that being said, the former seemingly needs to get his head out of his ass to reach that potential and the clock is ticking so Millar maybe the safer bet
  4. I generally agree that the consultation route isn’t as bad for the reasons people say including we have a young maturing team that may grow into itself over the next two years whereby I anticipate fancying ourselves even more against a Costa Rica, Honduras or Jamaica in two years time than in one. That being said, the Hex may give us a 15-25% chance of qualifying directly and something similar for being the 4th place side; whereas all we have to play for is the equivalent of the 4th place position if we have the consolation route. I suspect if you did an algorithmic analysis of the possibilities of us reaching the World Cup it would be significantly better if we were in the Hex. The one thing that always worries me about a two game playoff is that a bad bounce here or a cheap red card there combined with some bad luck could easily see you out against an inferior opponent. I remember Guatemala in 1990 qualifying. And we would need to go through 5 rounds of that!
  5. The best thing is that we will likely still be in the thick of World Cup qualifying until middle to late 2021 at least. Normally we are eliminated about 2 years out from the World Cup!
  6. I suspect that if you did the same fraction for Europe (13 spots currently) you may find that all of those that qualified in the past had come from the equivalent of the top 6 in Concacaf. In Europe's case, that would be the top 22 ranked sides to produce the 13 qualifiers (using the fraction of 6/3.5). You may have found the odd side outside that 22 that qualified, but probably not very many.
  7. While it would be difficult to beat a South America side in a two way match, it’s not impossible. Playing them in Edmonton in March would not be something any of them would want. And by then, we likely would have gone through a few rounds of playing Latin American sides in hostile conditions which we would have learned from. That being said, we clearly would not be favourites.
  8. I thing Davies is a very solid LB and can play there for Canada but then he would primarily be a shut down defender and only occasionally venture forward just like the way he does at Bayern. The problem with Canada is that he goes forward too often, tries to do too much and then leaves a weak back line exposed. So either you play him higher up the pitch to benefit from his strengths there with a weaker LB behind him; or you have him play LB but conservatively especially the first 30 mins or so away from home and that gets you another offensive player on the pitch. It’s a tough call but what you don’t do is have him play LB but allow him to bomb forward, play like a winger and lose the ball so that your defence is exposed. So people are wrong that he can’t play LB for Canada, he can but he just wasn’t used properly in this regard by Herdman
  9. I doubt they will nationalise many. It’s very controversial there. Nationality is based on ethnicity in China. There is something like only 1000 people in all of China who have been able to get a passport who are not Chinese (other than of course their own minorities that were born there)
  10. My take on this is essentially what I said a year ago when they first were denied sanctioning that was reversed. Fury have just made a shockingly bad business decision by staying in the USL in year 1. Granted, they were not put in an enviable situation by the circumstances they found themselves in by having to choose in year 1 between USL and CPL but as others have said, they should have known years ago that this was a likely eventuality. They either had to stay on the outside and hope they could claim “special circumstances!” Indefinitely or at least until they could wiggle their way in for nothing once the league was established or join a first year league with all the risks it entails. In fairness to them, not an enviable choice but it’s the choice they should have been aware of they needed to make. If I was them, I would have joined the league in year 1 as they would have seen from the inside the commitment of the ownership groups and whilst still a risk, that to me was a lot less risky than staying outside, hoping for an indefinite exemption in the FIFA world, and not paying an expansion fee once the league was established. from a business point of view, the CPL teams took all the risks, establish the league, signed the deal with media pro, got the sponsors, etc., they should be rewarded for those risks as Fury didn’t help them to create it Fury bet against them league by staying outside and now they go burned. It’s as simple as that
  11. Exchange rates really only matter when there is volatility (and the hedging costs even in normal times) as you can get caught out if at the beginning of the season you are charging X and that is worth Y but as the exchange rate goes down over the course of the season it is worth Y-20%. That is the problem. The real problem is that clubs are just not generating enough revenue. If a ticket is $50 in USD, it has to be $50 plus the exchange rate differential in CAD to be the same as that gives it the same value (ie. CAD is not worth the same as USD). When people claim the exchange rate is the problem, they are usually operating under this mistaken belief that somehow the currencies should trade at par. That is bonkers. Currencies trade at what their underlying value is. I live in Hong Kong where the rate is pegged at $7.8 HKD to $1 USD. No one things that you would translate a USD $1 price into a HKD $1 price. The real issue with Canadian clubs is the fanbase (or sponsors or TV) is too cheap to pay at the level of their US counterparts or they are overall significantly poorer (which is probably part of the problem) than their US brethren so cannot pay at that level. Or the clubs don't market themselves well enough to the fanbase (or sponsors or tv). Or the fanbase is significantly smaller. I suspect its some combination of all of that for Montreal and Vancouver. Clearly it doesn't impact Toronto as they are in the top 5 in terms of revenue.
  12. i think the more worrying thing is in spite of decent attendance, Montreal and Vancouver are in the bottom 4 of revenue.
  13. It’s interesting that this is a repeat of the first final in the CSL where the Kickers prevailed over the Steelers after both finished 1 and 2 respectively over the regular season. For history sake, I will go with Calgary this time as well.
  14. I agree he should aspire to play for England as I am certain he feels more English than anything else but just not sure I would commit my international future to them after having a few starts in the premiership. I would concentrate on my club career and when I was established and I knew I was going to be first or second choice I would commit.
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