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An Observer

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An Observer last won the day on February 21 2017

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  1. Perhaps you guys are right and CPL is lower than Austrian Bundesliga 2. If so, that really should stop the discussions about any players in the CPL repping for the national team. And the argument that we have a lot of depth as clearly we don’t as if the CPL is comparable to the 3rd division of a middle ranking European country that rarely qualifies for the World Cup or Euros, we really aren’t very good. I highly doubt even a pretty mediocre side like Austria would reach into their third tier to have players on their national team.
  2. I don’t think he is being ignored. He is just playing second division in a small European country that doesn’t have a recent history as a strong footballing nation. I wouldn’t expect that his current level is any better than CPL and possibly could be lower. If his side gets promoted and he does well, he will definitely get a look but even still he would only be playing at a level somewhere between CPL and MLS.
  3. He is still young and while we have depth, I certainly wouldn’t discard him. He could easily have a breakout season this year or next so frankly I hope he commits to us. Perhaps he could play for us in the Olympic qualifying
  4. He is not just a golden cock but a golden cock who is a top shooter!
  5. When David was with the U17s, he stood out. I always thought he just looked and operated on a different level than anyone else in qualifying. The same with Tabla in the cycle before him. I personally didn’t see anyone like that in the last cycle. Nelson was good but kinda Aleman good in that he has the potential to develop into something special or stall as a ball hog but I don’t think he will be a superstar. Habiboula looked similar but I give him some slack as he was young. The Vancouver Cb (forgot his name) looked the best in my opinion. On the next u17 cycle, possibly Rutty or the Montreal kid Alessi (I think) have the possibility to develop into a Davies or David but I would defer judgment until I see them at the u17 level (and even then it’s guess work).
  6. Maybe stick to something you know something about. I have worked in the financial industry for the last 20 years and the 3 major credit ratings agencies have objective criteria for assessing all sovereigns and companies and effectively their ability to pay back to their bond investors. I have never seen an American bias unless you mean by that a market driven finance system. But even then, these guys would rate companies higher who are backed by the Governement (ie. mom-market based Finance). And probably one of the reasons why they rate Boeing higher as it’s likely to get a government bail out as one of only two large Commerical passenger jet aircraft manufacturers in the world and the only one in the US. That’s not a bias of the rating agency as they don’t make policy but just asses the risk of where’re someone gets their money back Trust me, when compared to local based ratings agencies in places like China and India for example, that is where you see a complete unabashed bias. 95% of all Chinese companies are rated AAA or AA by their credit rating agencies! And the Europeans wanted to start their own government back credit rating agency after the Euro crisis until they found out all major investors worldwide would still require a Moody’s or S&P rating as that is the only objective criteria they would trust and they certainly wouldn’t trust the Europeans to rate themselves. Talking about conflict of interest. In the previous GFC, it is true that the ratings agencies methodology failed on securitisation but that wasn’t exclusive to the US. The same methodology was used in Europe and elsewhere by the same rating agencies. What these guys got wrong was the fact that banks in places like the US, Spain (where you live), Ireland, etc. were incentivised to handout mortgages without really verifying the ability of borrowers to pay back especially in a crisis as they no longer kept the loan on their balanced sheet but instead Securitized it (ie. sold it off to other investors). Securitization was originally held as a very clever way to pool loans and then tranche them so some investors took the real default risk but others would effectively have 0 risk (as not all the loans would ever default) thereby resulting in a more diversified investor base and a much more financially stable system. The ratings agencies gave higher credit ratings to those top tiers as historically housing markets in the US as a whole had never fallen in value together. But when you don’t align incentives, greed creeps in. Banks sold the mortgages without a care in the world as they got paid upfront, investors bought the highest tranches of securitised products as they thought they were safe but really didn’t understand what they were buying; ratings agencies got paid to rate them highly as they thought the whole market would never sink; regulators allowed it to happen as they thought securitization was diversifying risk not creating systemic risk, and borrowers (ie mom and pop) happily borrowed beyond their means as the western mentality these days is to gorge on credit to keep up with the Jones. It didn’t take much for all that to unravel and then have knock effects in the derivatives markets, caused runs on banks, and government bail out on a massive scale.
  7. Very different as this only involves two countries and everyone is quarantined from locals for the period they are all playing out of a neutral venue (hub). World Cup qualifying requires constant travel throughout the year with well over 100 countries having their nations sided moving around their region and drawing players from all over the world. It doesn’t take much to shut that down for at least some nations who have outbreaks or for players coming from those nations representing multiple countries to not be able to travel to play for their national side. Plus for most of the world you need fans to make this economically possible as tv alone won’t cover the costs. I just don’t see that being possible in the next year.
  8. This is going to be a problem well into 2021. The pandemic will continue until their is a vaccine readily available to all. That is why I can’t see World Cup qualifying for all regions being able to go ahead until then. For example, what happens if the pandemic gets a second wave in Mexico in early 2021. Mexico gets the automatic points as teams refused to travel there or refuse them entry? The reality is that many counties will have second and third waves which will completely put waste to a World Cup qualifying. They either need to move to tournaments at neutral venues or move the World Cup until late 2023. That is what they should be planning
  9. This could be dangerous for us unless the top 8 seeds are seeded which I hope they will be and not only the top 6 as that could easily mean we draw a Mexico or US in that round if were unlucky.
  10. I don't think so as he played for Cuba in the U17 World Cup Qualifying and then filed his one time switch to play for us when he was an U20.
  11. In case no one's mention it, I think he would be better off going to Leipzig.
  12. Unless the 2nd versus survivor of the lower seeded teams is only a one match playoff and not double legged, the better approach with limited match dates would be to have a tournament at a neutral site venue (or the side that finishes with the best 2nd place record) where the top ranked side would play the best of the rest; and the two other second place sides would play each other in a one match with winners playing one game to get to the intercontinental playoffs. Same number of games much fairer result. In the current scenario, the best of the rest has a much better chance of qualifying than most of the sides in the 3 groups of 12. Mark.
  13. We were also in the group of death. Going in all those 3 sides were highly rated.
  14. I personally think that if his strategy is to commit to whatever side calls him up first it is a boneheaded strategy. That would open him up to being called up, capped as a sub for a few minutes and then sat for the rest of his international career. I think he needs to get better career advice if that is really his view.
  15. McDavid finished second in scoring and if led the Oilers deep into the stanley cup playoffs, he is definitely a possibility. But Davies definitely has as good a chance as any at present
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