WCQ: Third Round - Window 2 (October 7-13, 2021)

[dyslexic nam]

17 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Exactly. Say we get three more out of this window, three more in November, rather modest results most would say.

That would put us on 12 points after 8 matches, on pace for 21 in total. Which likely takes us to Qatar. 

If we are ahead of that, and need less than 9 points in our last 6 matches (four of which will be away), all the better, but even a poor scenario is not a damning scenario.

For me, the one big bonus is our March window.  January will be tough with an away game in Honduras and hosting the US.  Away to ES may be easier but it isn’t like we have historically thrived away in CONCACAF.  

But if we are in anything like decent shape after January, March has the potential to send us to Qatar.  There are legitimately 9 points that we could get.  Every one of these fixtures is winnable so for me the main thing is staying within touching distance of the finish line before March.   Because even if the table looks a lot more depressing than it does now, those three games in March could be monumental.  

 

[Mattd97]

7 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

For me, the one big bonus is our March window.  January will be tough with an away game in Honduras and hosting the US.  Away to ES may be easier but it isn’t like we have historically thrived away in CONCACAF.  

But if we are in anything like decent shape after January, March has the potential to send us to Qatar.  There are legitimately 9 points that we could get.  Every one of these fixtures is winnable so for me the main thing is staying within touching distance of the finish line before March.   Because even if the table looks a lot more depressing than it does now, those three games in March could be monumental.  

 

That's supposed to say AT panama

[dyslexic nam]

Just now, Mattd97 said:

That's supposed to say AT panama

Damn.  Of course that is right - but I wasn’t thinking about it too critically so missed that.  I just took it off the screen shot shown by OS a while back.  

Still a good window and I still think 7-9 points is very possible, but yeah that is a bit deflating.  The whole time I was thinking we had this magical last round.  Just underscores the important of getting another 4-6 points this window I guess.  
 

[Approve My Account Pls]

Man the fact that we have no travel aside from getting the boys to Edmonton and the fact that Mexico is away to the US before coming to up north is a huge opportunity for us. I'd argue 4 points has to be the minimum target for next window

[narduch]

Davies and Osorio make the Match Day 4 best 11

 

[Yoginess]

1 point away to Mexico and USA is probably the most difficult challenge but anyone else wish we had 3 points away to El Salvador & Panama in the bag instead? Would love if we got some points on the board, we've only got that 1 win and it makes me nervous

[Unnamed Trialist]

37 minutes ago, narduch said:

Davies and Osorio make the Match Day 4 best 11

 

So beating the worst team in the Octo at home gets you 4 on that XI, but being one of ten teams to get points at Azteca since the 1930s gets you two. Right.

[sstackho]

These Monte Carlo simulation models are fun - for me, at least. 

The WCQ models wrap up into a World Cup simulation model.  And in 1 of the 5,000 randomized scenarios - Canada wins the World Cup! 

Here is how it's going to go down:

• We qualify for the World Cup
• We are in Pot 4 and get a fortunate draw into Group A
  • Qatar
  • Colombia
  • Slovakia (who were very fortunate to qualify, given their 3% chance of doing so based on slightly outdated UEFA standings when this simulation was run)
  • Canada
• We are favourites against Qatar but only manage a 1-1 draw.
• Big upset against Colombia, when we win 3-2.
• We are slight favourites against Slovakia and we win 3-1.  We top Group A!
• We get Austria in the Round of 16.  We are slight favourites.  We win 1-0. 
• Quarterfinals.  Oh no, it's Argentina.  We are big underdogs.  Regardless, we win 2-1.
• Semifinals.  Bring it on - we can beat anyone.  Oops, it's England.  We are big underdogs again.  It's 1-1 after 90 minutes.  In this simulation, they flip a coin after 90 minutes and we win it. As is tradition. 
• The finals.  France.  We have our lowest chance of winning yet.  No matter.  Canada wins 3-1! 
• Unfortunately, the Leafs had game at the same time as the finals, so we were second in the TV ratings.  Still, making the second page of the Toronto Star Sports section isn't so bad. 

I had to type this out before the spreadsheet recalculates with new random numbers and this turn of events disappears forever...

 

[MtlMario]

On 10/8/2021 at 3:59 PM, mrstepp817 said:

They were pretty rowdy when that goal was scored.....it seemed pretty wild based on the little I saw

You know what's the best way to solve that don't you?😎

[Scottie]

2 hours ago, Yoginess said:

1 point away to Mexico and USA is probably the most difficult challenge but anyone else wish we had 3 points away to El Salvador & Panama in the bag instead? Would love if we got some points on the board, we've only got that 1 win and it makes me nervous

Yes, I wish we had hypothetical wins (or a win, since winS would be 6 points) against teams we haven't played away yet instead of actual draws that have happened in reality!

[Sal333]

2 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

So beating the worst team in the Octo at home gets you 4 on that XI, but being one of ten teams to get points at Azteca since the 1930s gets you two. Right.

That's why I will call this federation CONCACA until further notice.

Just to add to your argument: Mexico is ranked 9th by FIFA. Jamaica is where? In the 7th circle of FIFA hell?

Edited October 9, 2021 by Sal333

[Sal333]

44 minutes ago, sstackho said:

These Monte Carlo simulation models are fun - for me, at least. 

The WCQ models wrap up into a World Cup simulation model.  And in 1 of the 5,000 randomized scenarios - Canada wins the World Cup! 

Here is how it's going to go down:

• We qualify for the World Cup
• We are in Pot 4 and get a fortunate draw into Group A
  • Qatar
  • Colombia
  • Slovakia (who were very fortunate to qualify, given their 3% chance of doing so based on slightly outdated UEFA standings when this simulation was run)
  • Canada
• We are favourites against Qatar but only manage a 1-1 draw.
• Big upset against Colombia, when we win 3-2.
• We are slight favourites against Slovakia and we win 3-1.  We top Group A!
• We get Austria in the Round of 16.  We are slight favourites.  We win 1-0. 
• Quarterfinals.  Oh no, it's Argentina.  We are big underdogs.  Regardless, we win 2-1.
• Semifinals.  Bring it on - we can beat anyone.  Oops, it's England.  We are big underdogs again.  It's 1-1 after 90 minutes.  In this simulation, they flip a coin after 90 minutes and we win it. As is tradition. 
• The finals.  France.  We have our lowest chance of winning yet.  No matter.  Canada wins 3-1! 
• Unfortunately, the Leafs had game at the same time as the finals, so we were second in the TV ratings.  Still, making the second page of the Toronto Star Sports section isn't so bad. 

I had to type this out before the spreadsheet recalculates with new random numbers and this turn of events disappears forever...

 

Carlo must be living in my head rent free. That's the very scenario I've been living over and over in my head. BTW what do you call him Montee or Carlo?

[Sal333]

6 hours ago, narduch said:

My guess is full capacity. Whether they can sell it out in 3 or 4 days is another question 

I'm not from T.O. What is full capacity at BMO Field?

[narduch]

Just now, Sal333 said:

I'm not from T.O. What is full capacity at BMO Field?

30,000

[Jedi Ram]

As per We Global Football simulations...

 

Seems like everyone is jumping on Canada's bandwagon and already assuming all North American countries make the World Cup...We must not let get these stimulations to become over-confident...Just win the games and ensure we get 21 points...

[Sal333]

15 minutes ago, Jedi Ram said:

As per We Global Football simulations...

 

Seems like everyone is jumping on Canada's bandwagon and already assuming all North American countries make the World Cup...We must not let get these stimulations to become over-confident...Just win the games and ensure we get 21 points...

I'm pretty sure we can get as over-confident as we want. No one on this board is playing on the team. 

[Wayverider]

Prior to the last game I suggested we are now a confident enough team that should concede nothing to Mexico in the Azteca. Our boys did us proud. We are the only team in the group who have already played its two most challenging away matches - and we have draws in both of them.  Many of our opponents will garner 1 or zero points in their away US/Mexico combo.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves too much. 1 pt is not 3 and we’ve played a grand total of four games. We’ve only taken mere steps in a long journey. And just as I said we should concede nothing against Mexico, similarly I expect Jamaica to concede nothing against us. We should anticipate in Kingston Town a wounded animal backed into a corner. It will require an all guns blaring approach on our part! Let’s go! 

[Metro]

3 hours ago, sstackho said:

These Monte Carlo simulation models are fun - for me, at least. 

The WCQ models wrap up into a World Cup simulation model.  And in 1 of the 5,000 randomized scenarios - Canada wins the World Cup! 

Here is how it's going to go down:

• We qualify for the World Cup
• We are in Pot 4 and get a fortunate draw into Group A
  • Qatar
  • Colombia
  • Slovakia (who were very fortunate to qualify, given their 3% chance of doing so based on slightly outdated UEFA standings when this simulation was run)
  • Canada
• We are favourites against Qatar but only manage a 1-1 draw.
• Big upset against Colombia, when we win 3-2.
• We are slight favourites against Slovakia and we win 3-1.  We top Group A!
• We get Austria in the Round of 16.  We are slight favourites.  We win 1-0. 
• Quarterfinals.  Oh no, it's Argentina.  We are big underdogs.  Regardless, we win 2-1.
• Semifinals.  Bring it on - we can beat anyone.  Oops, it's England.  We are big underdogs again.  It's 1-1 after 90 minutes.  In this simulation, they flip a coin after 90 minutes and we win it. As is tradition. 
• The finals.  France.  We have our lowest chance of winning yet.  No matter.  Canada wins 3-1! 
• Unfortunately, the Leafs had game at the same time as the finals, so we were second in the TV ratings.  Still, making the second page of the Toronto Star Sports section isn't so bad. 

I had to type this out before the spreadsheet recalculates with new random numbers and this turn of events disappears forever...

 

👊 👊 👊

Although you are missing the obligatory "screwed over by CONCACAF ref" moment who inexplicably will be appointed for one of our matches. 

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

1 hour ago, Wayverider said:

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves too much....

That train has already left the station; people here were already talking about trying to get into Pot 3 for the World Cup!

[Approve My Account Pls]

4 hours ago, sstackho said:

And in 1 of the 5,000 randomized scenarios - Canada wins the World Cup! 

Edit: now that I'm looking at is Eustaquio would make a great Dr. Strange

Edited October 10, 2021 by Approve My Account Pls

[Kent]

4 hours ago, sstackho said:

These Monte Carlo simulation models are fun - for me, at least. 

The WCQ models wrap up into a World Cup simulation model.  And in 1 of the 5,000 randomized scenarios - Canada wins the World Cup! 

Here is how it's going to go down:

• We qualify for the World Cup
• We are in Pot 4 and get a fortunate draw into Group A
  • Qatar
  • Colombia
  • Slovakia (who were very fortunate to qualify, given their 3% chance of doing so based on slightly outdated UEFA standings when this simulation was run)
  • Canada
• We are favourites against Qatar but only manage a 1-1 draw.
• Big upset against Colombia, when we win 3-2.
• We are slight favourites against Slovakia and we win 3-1.  We top Group A!
• We get Austria in the Round of 16.  We are slight favourites.  We win 1-0. 
• Quarterfinals.  Oh no, it's Argentina.  We are big underdogs.  Regardless, we win 2-1.
• Semifinals.  Bring it on - we can beat anyone.  Oops, it's England.  We are big underdogs again.  It's 1-1 after 90 minutes.  In this simulation, they flip a coin after 90 minutes and we win it. As is tradition. 
• The finals.  France.  We have our lowest chance of winning yet.  No matter.  Canada wins 3-1! 
• Unfortunately, the Leafs had game at the same time as the finals, so we were second in the TV ratings.  Still, making the second page of the Toronto Star Sports section isn't so bad. 

I had to type this out before the spreadsheet recalculates with new random numbers and this turn of events disappears forever...

 

Now all we have to do is keep this "golden generation" level of players for (5000 simulations x 4 years per World Cup) 20,000 years to be reasonably confident we win a World Cup! Heck, if FIFA does change it to every 2 years it could be as low as 10,000 years!

[Cblake]

19 hours ago, Approve My Account Pls said:

Man the fact that we have no travel aside from getting the boys to Edmonton and the fact that Mexico is away to the US before coming to up north is a huge opportunity for us. I'd argue 4 points has to be the minimum target for next window

Absolutely, at least 4 has to be the goal. This team beat Costa Rica. I have visions of this on the frozen tundra of Commonwealth Field. Heck if it can happen in Denver in March it certainly can happen in Edmonton in November. 

Edited October 10, 2021 by Cblake

[Unnamed Trialist]

14 hours ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

That train has already left the station; people here were already talking about trying to get into Pot 3 for the World Cup!

I have 50-50 confidence about making the 4th spot but am very interested in Pot 3. Live with it!

[Unnamed Trialist]

12 hours ago, Cblake said:

Absolutely, at least 4 has to be the goal. This team beat Costa Rica. I have visions of this on the frozen tundra of Commonwealth Field. Heck if it can happen in Denver in February it certainly can happen in Edmonton in November. 

If the ball doesn't bounce they'll call the game and we'll be required to reschedule. So it is a bit risky, frankly, because we may end up playing Mexico some other time, and not in our terms.

The US was lucky that match because Dempsey scored early, then the snow came hard and they kept playing, when it most definitely should have been called. By second half it was unplayable, and unplayable is a called or postponed match. CR ended up qualifying for the WC regardless. 

BTW that was played in March in Denver, so you might think it was not as risky as our doing Edmonton in November. The only time I was in Colorado I got caught in a major snowstorm in mid-May in the Front Range, my bus got stuck in the snow and slipped into a ditch. 

Edited October 10, 2021 by Unnamed Trialist

[narduch]

5 hours ago, Cblake said:

Absolutely, at least 4 has to be the goal. This team beat Costa Rica. I have visions of this on the frozen tundra of Commonwealth Field. Heck if it can happen in Denver in February it certainly can happen in Edmonton in November. 

Costa Rica fans are still pissed about this game