WCQ: Third Round - Window 2 (October 7-13, 2021)

[jtpc]

50 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

I would counter that people will feel far more exasperated if we go all out guns blazing against Mexico and lose anyway - then drop points against Jamaica or Panama because a few of our key guys are either injured or absolutely gassed and can’t get the job done.  

I get that there are differences of opinion on the subject, but for me there are realistically 6 points up for grabs in this window - and none of them are in Mexico.  

Totally agree. This is the strategic choice I prefer. If we're in it late in Mexico and have the chance to salvage something, then go for it, but my priority would be putting us in the best position for the final 2 matches, since those have the most point-earning potential.

[Floortom]

 

This suggests that they will be arriving to Mexico at least a few days before the match. Not sure if they're all going direct to Mexico or not - agreed that makes the most sense especially when you consider more than a few of the players wont be flying until the Monday morning

 

[footballfreak]

25 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

They need to get to Mexico City as soon as possible to be at altitude. Denver might be acceptable.

EDIT:

@RS Florida is a good idea for the January window. Maybe even a Camp Poutine match in Florida prior to playing Honduras.

Afik, the prevailing theory for sport at altitude gives us two options:

A. Get in and out as quickly as possible. 

or

B. Acclimatize well in advance. I forget the time frame, but I’m pretty sure it’s closer to weeks rather than days.

 

B is not available to us. A is the way.

Edited October 1, 2021 by footballfreak

[Free kick]

5 minutes ago, Floortom said:

 

This suggests that they will be arriving to Mexico at least a few days before the match. Not sure if they're all going direct to Mexico or not - agreed that makes the most sense especially when you consider more than a few of the players wont be flying until the Monday morning

 

It might not be enough.   I believe that you have to be there for about a week before.   A topic that came up during TFC’s run in the CL in 2018.  I think that they arrived a week before in order to acclimatize.  Seemed to have worked.   

[Free kick]

Of note,  canada have, in the past, managed to earn some draws against mexico while playing at home.   This was achieved with Canadian sides who werent as talented as this squad.  They are no where near as dangerous away from home than they are at azteca.  So if canada wins at home, that would be the split needed to keep us ahead or in line with the rest of the field.  Maybe the greater focus should be on the home game against Mexico in Nov moreso than this upcomming one at 2300 meters above sea level.

Edited October 1, 2021 by Free kick

[SoccMan]

5 hours ago, SpursFlu said:

Depending how much training they expect to do in Mexico, I wouldn't even send a handful of guys to Mexico. Davies, Hoilett, Eustaquio, David... send them directly to Jamaica to lay in wait

If we knock off Jamaica in Jamaica you basically stick a fork in them. 6 pts this window would put us in an amazing position for top 4. 3 or less, especially dropped points at home to Panama.. it starts to get to be white knuckle time

We should just forfeit the game , then everyone will be fully rested for the next two games .

[gator]

2 hours ago, trc2014 said:

Pre Suriname game is and I’m sure will be for awhile my highest stress level pre-game for CDNMT (beating out the non-spoken about game in Honduras)

If we continue to pick up points in these windows we could be in for some exciting and stressful times like most of us have never seen with this program as each match becomes more important, it could be quite a ride!

[Ruud]

1 hour ago, footballfreak said:

Here’s another way to think about the problem. 

Say you do go all out and play your best available 11 against Mexico. Minimum 5 outfield players are going to play all 90 mins in Mexico City at altitude. Jamaica match starts ~67 hours after that, including a travel day. Whoever those 5 are will be absolutely gassed and good for 45-60 mins at the absolute most. Probably less.

Assuming everything goes right and we challenge for a point or points in MEX. Who are those 5 guys? Because they’re not going to give you nearly as much as you want them to against Jamaica.

 

ZBG, Henry, Miller, Oso or Kaye,  Shaffleburg or Cavellini,Wotherspoon

 

[narduch]

Scanning my TV guide and Canada v Mexico will only be on Sportsnet 360. Of course it's still on One Soccer too

[An Observer]

I am pretty much of the view that you will see an approach against Mexico similar to what we used against the US. We will look to absorb pressure in the first half and hit them on the counter; the second half we will look to sub some players in and take it to them (assuming we are still in with a shout). On that basis, we will likely have a B+ to A- line up which will heavily influenced by who is available (and expected to be available during the next matches). I suspect something like David up top with the possibility of Buchanan or Davies joining him which means Mexico will have to really watch be careful about us on the counter. With Adekugbe and Laryea on the wings and Osorio, Eustaquio and Kaye in the Center as the 3 have the most legs and a back line of Miller, Vitoria and Johnston. Henry and Cornelius will be saved for Jamaica as they match up better.  Same with Piette. 

if we are in with a shout, you will see guys like Millar and Davies/Buchanan come on with some rotation of Wotherspoon and Fraser in the middle. And possibly ZBG for Laryea or Adekugbe although I think he is one player you could see start over Laryea to save the latter for Jamaica.  

if we are not, you might seem some of those subs to save the legs of the guys that will start against Jamaica but you probably will see Brym and Shaffleburg on up front on the wings to save David, Davies and/or Buchanan for Jamaica. 

I don’t think you see Fraser, Piette or Wotherspoon start against Mexico as none of them have the legs to run 90 at altitude nor does Hutch but he’s injured anyway.  One issue we have is generally our best players are our fittest so I think you will see more of them in Mexico than some think.

Hoilet will start against Jamaica as he can’t versus Mexico it seems.  And likely some of Hutch, Larin and Cav will see the field as starters or subs there.  

I get what people are saying about playing our best against Jamaica but what people are forgetting (as per usual here) is availability of players, match ups, fitness, conditions, etc. All that has to be factored into the equation. 

[Stoppage Time]

1 hour ago, Free kick said:

It might not be enough.   I believe that you have to be there for about a week before.   A topic that came up during TFC’s run in the CL in 2018.  I think that they arrived a week before in order to acclimatize.  Seemed to have worked.   

I am assuming that many or most of the Mexicans do not normally live or play at high altitude, so I wonder if the Mexicans will face, to some degree, the same altitude issues as we will.

[footballfreak]

32 minutes ago, An Observer said:

I am pretty much of the view that you will see an approach against Mexico similar to what we used against the US. We will look to absorb pressure in the first half and hit them on the counter; the second half we will look to sub some players in and take it to them (assuming we are still in with a shout). On that basis, we will likely have a B+ to A- line up which will heavily influenced by who is available (and expected to be available during the next matches). I suspect something like David up top with the possibility of Buchanan or Davies joining him which means Mexico will have to really watch be careful about us on the counter. With Adekugbe and Laryea on the wings and Osorio, Eustaquio and Kaye in the Center as the 3 have the most legs and a back line of Miller, Vitoria and Johnston. Henry and Cornelius will be saved for Jamaica as they match up better.  Same with Piette. 

if we are in with a shout, you will see guys like Millar and Davies/Buchanan come on with some rotation of Wotherspoon and Fraser in the middle. And possibly ZBG for Laryea or Adekugbe although I think he is one player you could see start over Laryea to save the latter for Jamaica.  

if we are not, you might seem some of those subs to save the legs of the guys that will start against Jamaica but you probably will see Brym and Shaffleburg on up front on the wings to save David, Davies and/or Buchanan for Jamaica. 

I don’t think you see Fraser, Piette or Wotherspoon start against Mexico as none of them have the legs to run 90 at altitude nor does Hutch but he’s injured anyway.  One issue we have is generally our best players are our fittest so I think you will see more of them in Mexico than some think.

Hoilet will start against Jamaica as he can’t versus Mexico it seems.  And likely some of Hutch, Larin and Cav will see the field as starters or subs there.  

I get what people are saying about playing our best against Jamaica but what people are forgetting (as per usual here) is availability of players, match ups, fitness, conditions, etc. All that has to be factored into the equation. 

I’m neutral or in agreement with most of this barring one major exception:

Adekugbe and Davies both have Sunday games and we don’t have a ton of options at LB/LWB to be tiring out both in game 1. I expect they’ll spell each other off at LB/LWB, with neither playing more than 60 mins.

[Gian-Luca]

Just saw the roster, very surprised about Brym based on what he showed (or didn't show) in the Olympic qualifiers. With Larin & Cavallini both called not sure he sees any time, but its certainly suggests that Herdman must have been keeping some pretty good tabs on the player to pick him.

I am not surprised about Shaffelburg, but then I did predict a couple of days ago that he might get the call this window, so I shouldn't be.

Other than that, it's everyone who I expected to be called, barring the injury to Kennedy. Nice to see Cornelius back though.

[CanadaFan123]

3 hours ago, footballfreak said:

Here’s another way to think about the problem. 

Say you do go all out and play your best available 11 against Mexico. Minimum 5 outfield players are going to play all 90 mins in Mexico City at altitude. Jamaica match starts ~67 hours after that, including a travel day. Whoever those 5 are will be absolutely gassed and good for 45-60 mins at the absolute most. Probably less.

Assuming everything goes right and we challenge for a point or points in MEX. Who are those 5 guys? Because they’re not going to give you nearly as much as you want them to against Jamaica.

 

Those 5 won’t be absolutely gassed if they’re the right players. Johnston, Laryea and Eustaquio will be good to go.

[Addona]

Is there a consensus that 4 points from these 3 games is satisfactory?

[SpursFlu]

4 minutes ago, Addona said:

Is there a consensus that 4 points from these 3 games is satisfactory?

Not me.. we need 6 to be comfortable. We should beat Jamaica and Panama 

[Floortom]

19 minutes ago, Addona said:

Is there a consensus that 4 points from these 3 games is satisfactory?

the truth is even 3 points keeps us in solid position. 4 would be a good result though and anything more than that excellent. 

After the first window and all those draws, simulations are are generally showing 18-19 points will be enough for 3rd spot.  For us that means winning most of our remaining home games (we could realistically afford to drop some points to Mexico and the US) and stealing another few points on the road (El Salvador, Jamaica and Panama are probably our best opportunities.

All that to say - I sure hope we get 4 or more points but a win vs Panama is by far the most important result. 

Edited October 2, 2021 by Floortom

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

3 hours ago, footballfreak said:

Whoever those 5 are will be absolutely gassed and good for 45-60 mins at the absolute most. Probably less.

Altitude (Mexico) and tropical humidity (Jamaica) changes the game for this window.

 

Let's look back at the three (non - GK) players that played serious minutes during the previous window. How much could they play after?
- Laryea was rested by TFC on Saturday, September 11th after going 280+ (all possible) minutes during the 3-match window.
- Johnston was a sub and played about 30 minutes for Nashville on on Saturday, September 11th after going 280+ (all possible) minutes during the 3-match window.
- Eustáquio played a full match for Paços de Ferreira on Saturday, September 11th after going 265+ minutes during the 3-match window. An absolute machine. He was given no rest by his club. 😲

---

- Brym is in the squad to see minutes against Mexico to keep other players fresh

- Piette also has to get minutes against Mexico to keep  other players fresh

[trc2014]

14 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

Brym is in the squad to see minutes against Mexico to keep other players fresh

In this case - id almost argue to give Tabla the shot.  It’s going to be hard for me to shake what I saw at the Olympic qualifying...

[footballfreak]

32 minutes ago, CanadaFan123 said:

Those 5 won’t be absolutely gassed if they’re the right players. Johnston, Laryea and Eustaquio will be good to go.

At 2200m, every breath you draw has ~25% less oxygen. You’re putting a much greater stress on your body than an ordinary game, and that’s before accounting for a high quality opponent who will monopolize possession. Recovery time is proportionate to that stress. There is less than 72 hours between Mexico and Jamaica. 

 

[CanadaFan123]

20 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

Altitude (Mexico) and tropical humidity (Jamaica) changes the game for this window.

 

Let's look back at the three (non - GK) players that played serious minutes during the previous window. How much could they play after?
- Laryea was rested by TFC on Saturday, September 11th after going 280+ (all possible) minutes during the 3-match window.
- Johnston was a sub and played about 30 minutes for Nashville on on Saturday, September 11th after going 280+ (all possible) minutes during the 3-match window.
- Eustáquio played a full match for Paços de Ferreira on Saturday, September 11th after going 265+ minutes during the 3-match window. An absolute machine. He was given no rest by his club. 😲

---

- Brym is in the squad to see minutes against Mexico to keep other players fresh

- Piette also has to get minutes against Mexico to keep  other players fresh

I really doubt we see Brym.

[SpursFlu]

42 minutes ago, Floortom said:

the truth is even 3 points keeps us in solid position. 4 would be a good result though and anything more than that excellent. 

After the first window and all those draws, simulations are are generally showing 18-19 points will be enough for 3rd spot.  For us that means winning most of our remaining home games (we could realistically afford to drop some points to Mexico and the US) and stealing another few points on the road (El Salvador, Jamaica and Panama are probably our best opportunities.

All that to say - I sure hope we get 4 or more points but a win vs Panama is by far the most important result. 

3 points will keep us in a solid position? You are aware the other teams can earn points also

[dyslexic nam]

57 minutes ago, Addona said:

Is there a consensus that 4 points from these 3 games is satisfactory?

Not really satisfactory for me.  3 is the absolute bare minimum we need to get, but it would be pretty disappointing.  We are absolutely capable of getting a result away to Jamaica - a draw at least and possibly a win.  Unlike some, I don’t expect pints from the Mexico game, but it would be a nice bonus.  So for me, 3 points is not good enough, even if it technically keeps us on the running.  4 points would be satisfactory.  And anything over that would be a really good result. 

[Joe MacCarthy]

Not sure if this was posted or not

 

[Cblake]

4 hours ago, Floortom said:

 

This suggests that they will be arriving to Mexico at least a few days before the match. Not sure if they're all going direct to Mexico or not - agreed that makes the most sense especially when you consider more than a few of the players wont be flying until the Monday morning

 

Absolutely it makes sense to have everyone fly directly into Mexico City and get ready there in the climate the first match will be played in. Getting adjusted to the altitude will do them wonders, not putting them behind the eight ball the moment they set on the pitch.