Jump to content

footballfreak

CSN
  • Posts

    416
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Contact Methods

  • MSN
    mattkowalewski@hotmail.com

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

footballfreak's Achievements

  1. Davies should be subbed out, imo. Coming off an injury and the chances of a comeback are slim. No sense risking him.
  2. FC Basel crash out of the Swiss Cup to third division side Etoile Courage (0-1). Liam Millar came on in the 68th minute.
  3. I can see the wisdom in either scenario: - Canada camp gets the guys used to playing at BC Place - US camp simulates Central American conditions and means less transit time. I think the benefits of a US camp are worth it this time around given the away-home-away schedule. Same thing in March.
  4. With the cold weather and busy schedule in Europe, and the questionable fitness of the MLS contingent, you have to figure we will accrue unexpected injuries both before and during window 4 - maybe even more than in window 2. There cannot be a repeat of the October window nonsense where we called in a skeleton crew and 4 guys who were never going to be fit in time. If David had gone down in Mexico or Jamaica, we would have had to play with no natural strikers (or Brym) in a must-win against Panama. Unacceptable. Get the CSA to dig around in the couch cushions and bring every MLS/out of season player who answers the call to Florida. Make it a de facto tryout for some of those fringe guys who will be desperate to make the Qatar squad. Bring in your Euro guys at the end and make the final selection - 23 plus maybe a couple spares to bring down to Honduras, then send a taxi squad of 5-8 more guys to Vancouver. Saves a bit of money and provides some emergency cover in case illness strikes the team in SPS (covid or otherwise). A pool of ~28-30 should be the goal for these 3-match windows. Anything less is just asking for trouble.
  5. James - Vejle’s last game before the break is November 29. Next match February 20. Sturing - Nov 27 - Feb 18 Henry - ~Dec 1-Mar 1 (going off 2019 schedule) Effectively, that puts these guys in the same position as the MLS pool. Potentially worse, because they may be tied to team training and thus unable to attend Camp Poutine.
  6. Amputate both arms to alleviate any balance issues. Problem solved.
  7. Coming back from hamstring injuries is such a mental thing too. Highly doubt he plays in Edmonton unless he gets at least one game under his belt in Germany first.
  8. Max Crépeau and Russell Teibert both played 90mins for Vancouver Whitecaps in a 1-1 draw at San Jose. Crépeau made a great recovery to deny a 90th minute tap-in to Chris Wondolowski. Lucas Cavallini and Michael Baldisimo came on in the 63rd minute. Ryan Raposo came on at 85’. Doneil Henry scores a goal, gets a yellow card, and goes 90mins in a 2-0W for Suwon Bluewings over Daegu FC. Suwon Bluewings finish the first phase in 6th and advance to Group A for the final 5 games of the season.
  9. Manjrekar James goes the full 90 for Vejle in a 2-0 win over Nordsjælland in Denmark.
  10. Vejle get their first win of the season in match 12 (oof). 2-0 against Nordsjælland. Still 7 points from safety and overwhelming favourites to be relegated, but the split format of the Danish league at least makes great escapes more possible. Sloppy game all around if the stats say anything. No one on the Vejle backline had a pass completion above 70% and they finished with 38% possession. That said, Nordsjælland didn’t really threaten either. 3 shots on target. 0.75xG. Going on stats alone it doesn’t look like James or his central defensive partner had a massive amount to do, but managed well nonetheless. 4/4 on aerial duels, 1 interception, 5 recoveries, 68% pass completion.
  11. My Spanish is pretty much nonexistent, but from what I can gather Panama just received a $20.5K fine for a pitch invasion during the El Salvador game. Fun fact which I did not know is that the Panamanian currency is pegged 1:1 to the USD. Not a huge story for now, but it certainly makes Panama more likely to be handed a fan ban if there are any more problems.
  12. Look at it this way, if they get a full stadium ban for the Jamaica game, they can’t do anything bad to get a ban for the Canada game. Not to mention we’d be better off with them winning/drawing the Jamaica game anyways. Jamaica, as bad as they were to start, have way more talent to put together a run than El Salvador. I don’t think either present a substantial threat, but El Salvador have played 4 home games, and are probably the weakest side on paper in the ocho. Any points they can take off other teams is a big plus.
  13. Jamaica actually bottomed out after round 5 at 2.4% (top 3) and 7.7% (top 4). If that feels low, please consider this snapshot after 5 games: Before the ocho started, most projections and pundits estimated that the threshold for qualifying in the top 3 would probably fall somewhere between 20-24 poins, with 24 points pretty much representing a stone cold lock for qualification and ~17-20 points being good for 4th. However, it should be noted that Canada’s projected total has slowly been ticking towards the upper edge of that range (23.7), so the target is not a static one for Jamaica. The higher that target goes, the less likely it becomes that they can catch us even if they get hot. But let’s be generous and say a total of 20 gets you over the line. Jamaica would have needed to average 6W-0D-3L or 5W-3D-1L in a schedule with tough home games remaining against USA/Mexico and road trips to Honduras, Canada, Panama and El Salvador. There are maybe 3 games in that stretch where they would be considered better than 50/50. Even if we assume a 50/50 coin flip model with no draws, they only reach 6 wins or more 25.4% of the time. If you assume 23 points (7 wins) is the the threshold, those odds dip to 9.0%. And that’s before you consider... By ELO rating, Jamaica are the 6th best team in the ocho. Maybe they’re actually better than that, but so far the the limited results we have say they are pretty much who we thought they were. They’re already going into most games as an underdog, so a coinflip model overestimates them. It’s not a two horse race. There are other teams involved, and every single one of them was ahead of Jamaica in the standings at that point. This is the big one that drastically cut into their odds. They not only had to overcome a 6 point deficit in only 9 games, they needed to leapfrog 5 other teams. Even in the tail-end outcomes where Canada/Panama both fall off dramatically, and the points threshold is lowered, and the stars align for Jamaica, some other team pips them to that third spot more often than not by virtue of being better positioned to take advantage. Home advantage. We all know. I think the number was something crazy like a 17% win rate on the road since the Hex began, but I wasn’t able to retrieve that stat. Draws do very little for Jamaica given the hole they’re in, so they need road wins. They got one, and they probably need at least 1-2 more. Not easy. Not likely. Can they do all that and make the top 3? Sure. How likely is it though? I would argue that 2.4% (~1 in 42) to finish top 3, and 7.7% (1 in 13) is completely reasonable for a last place team through 35% of the schedule. 1 in 13 is certainly not hopeless given how deep a hole they were in, and even 1 in 42 is 6x as likely as having twins (1 in 250). Is the prospect of having twins hopeless? You can quibble over a few percentage points, but it’s not like Jaimaica were underestimated by an order of magnitude. Flash forward to round 6. Almost every result that needed to go their way went their way. They won away from home and 4 of the 5 teams directly above them dropped all 3 points. Honduras in particular tanked their chances in a massive way. Despite that, Jamaica currently sit at 6.4% (not 8%) to finish top 3 and 23.6% to finish top 4. That seems like a pretty fair chance seeing as they still sit 6th, haven’t played very well, and are still in a hole. —— Regarding the use of poisson distribution, I found a brief explanation from El Noido.
  14. There’s a whole lot wrong to unpack here, and I don’t know if I have the energy to do it after two years of arguing with anti-vaxxers, but here goes. First and foremost, the simulation of remaining games is not based on current record, but on elo rating. For example, Canada’s most likely finish after match day 5 was still 3rd, despite the fact we were in 4th in the live standings. If we’re getting even more pedantic, I don’t think the guy who produces the model even uses updated elo rankings each round, but rather a static set from before the ocho began. So no, the odds of each individual game don’t change afik. Even if they did update elo rating each round, tweaking the odds based on newer, better data is a feature not a bug. Second, the fact that the probability of qualifying fluctuates as the model is updated with results is not some gotcha. That is what is actually happening irl. Canada winning against Panama altered both teams’ respective chances of qualifying. Every team will ultimately end up in one of two bins - in or out. You will either be at 0% or 100% qualified. The results teams achieve throughout qualifying, and the results of other games, will begin to shift them closer to one bin or the other. All this model does is try to accurately reflect how close each team is to each bin. You can argue it doesn’t do an adequate job, or factor in enough variables, but you’re not gonna have better accuracy with some static crystal ball. If Mexico has a 65% chance of winning their next game, the probability of them qualifying afterward will have changed irrespective of any other result - because you can’t 65% win a soccer game. The pendulum is always swinging. The plinko balls are always falling left or right. Pick whatever metaphor you want, but if you’re not factoring in current data into your predictive model, then it has no more value than a magic 8 ball. Third, Jamaica was a particularly poor choice of example, because their changing fortunes in reality are quite well reflected in the model. Before the start of game 1, they were given a 10.3% chance to finish in the top 3, and a 23.8% chance to finish in the top 4 - with ~60% of outcomes putting them in the 5th to 7th range. This more or less passes the sniff test. You can argue they should have been slightly higher or lower, but most assessed them as being something of a wildcard that could fall anywhere in the 3-7 range depending on how well their new players bedded in. Anywho, they then had a bad run of games which significantly lowered their chances (go figure), then rebounded slightly when they outperformed the average number of points they were predicted to win in Honduras. None of that is surprising. Ultimately, their odds are currently better than they were before game 6, but worse than at the start of qualifying. Again, that passes the sniff test - they went from being on zeros with everyone else to being in a point deficit, with fewer games remaining to overcome it. I’m gonna go to bed and trust someone else will be able to explain the finer points of Monte Carlo models and Poisson distributions way better than I ever could, but in closing...
  15. Rather than saying we need 3/4/6 points from this window, if we look at things holistically the most realistic pathway to qualification is: 3 points from the Costa Rica home game 3 points from the Jamaica home game 3 points from either USA or Mexico If we do those things, we only need 1 point from the 4 away games to hit 20 points. Even that may be enough to finish 3rd. If that draw becomes a win, we’re at 22 points which will almost certainly be enough. Obviously, it would be preferable to win all our home games and avoid road shenanigans, but chances are something goes wrong in at least one of those games. But if we can get 9 from 12 at home, we’re still in very good shape.
×
×
  • Create New...