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jtpc

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  1. We started the month 30 points behind El Salvador and 19 points behind Panama. Now we're only 5 points behind El Salvador and Panama trails us by 6 points. I'm getting really excited about next month. What a chance to gain points, a 25 multiplier against the US at home, while El Salvador plays 2 away matches. Curacao is in a very good position as well, so hopefully Costa Rica can take care of business and prevent Curacao from advancing past the group stage. Let's get that November friendly finalized. It would be great if there was a country with a super-inflated ranking and the logistics worked out perfectly, but if not and we're looking within our region, I think the mid-tier underneath Haiti would be ideal. Perhaps an Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Kitts and Nevis, or Trinidad and Tobago. High enough that we would feel good about our ability to get a result (we've defeated Trinidad and Tobago 2-0 and Saint Kitts and Nevis 1-0 recently) but not low enough that the points would be almost meaningless. Even if the friendly only gave us another 3 points, I would rather play it safe and take that, than shoot for the moon by playing a very high ranked team and lose.
  2. Can't wait for the next rankings update on September 19th. 6th is definitely in play now for the Hex. Get that November friendly finalized!
  3. Dominican Republic has defeated El Salvador 1-0!
  4. Now that we already have 6 goals in the bag, I want a double digit goal differential and another clean sheet. Fill the net. Should our 2 matches with the US end in draws, let's set the bar as high as possible for how many goals they would need to score against Cuba.
  5. Since we're +6 on goal differential, I think having a double digit goal differential after our home and away with Cuba would be a nice goal to set. I'll take 4-0 as that would get us to +10.
  6. El Salvador begins a stretch of 3 straight Nations League games on the road, so maybe they will have a draw or a loss somewhere between tomorrow's match in the Dominican Republic and the end of the October window. In Nations League qualifying, if it wasn't for El Salvador scoring on the last kick of the match, Montserrat would have earned a draw with them at home. Montserrat plays El Salvador at home on October 12th. I still can't believe Bermuda won 2-0 in Panama last night. It's nice to know that Panama has basically been pulled back to where we are points-wise. If we could ever win our group, whether that might come from a home win against the US and a draw away, or 2 draws with the US but a higher goal differential, the potential could be there to really rack up the points. We know El Salvador won't have any post-group stage matches since they're in Group B. As long as Mexico does their job twice against Panama, Panama wouldn't have any post-group stage matches either. Win your group in League A, and it seems like you're guaranteed 2 more matches, a semi and either the final or the 3rd place match. Let's go CanMNT! 😃
  7. Update: Bermuda wins 2-0! Panama shutout at home, losing to a country ranked 100 places lower than they are. This is huge considering Panama's only other group stage matches are against Mexico. El Salvador will be cheering this result as much as we are.
  8. There's something very peak CONCACAF about a non-FIFA member being awarded a 3-0 forfeit victory on the opening day of the Nations League. 😂 Who knows if French Guiana will win their group in League B, but if they do, they qualify for the next Gold Cup and for League A of the next Nations League. I really hope we're still not dealing with some matches earning ranking points while others don't by the time the next Gold Cup and Nations League roll around.
  9. I'm feeling pretty excited about this change, knowing that the Nations League matches will be worth more. Excellent! Now we just have to take care of our business and hope that El Salvador is held to a draw maybe once or twice by Montserrat, Dominican Republic, or Saint Lucia. It's a shame we only have 4 group stage matches when El Salvador, qualifying in a lower group, plays 6. Thinking way too far ahead to after the group stage, you'll notice they didn't draw placeholder matchups for the semi-finals when the group stage draws were made. I'm assuming they want to see who wins each group first before determining those. Should we end up with a scenario where the group winners are us, Mexico, Honduras, and someone from Group D, we have to avoid playing Mexico in the semi. Best case scenario, Honduras would get Mexico in the semi while we played the Group D winner. It will be fun to see how it all plays out now with the higher multipliers. I'm really hoping we see an October and November friendly develop. Even if they only get us 2 or 3 extra points each window, that could literally make all the difference by next June.
  10. El Salvador has an interesting quirk in their Nations League schedule. After opening at home against Saint Lucia this Saturday, they play 3 away matches in a row, September 10th in the Dominican Republic, October 12th in Montserrat, and October 15th in Saint Lucia. All of their away games in League B, Group B, will be done by the time the October FIFA rankings come out. You'd think that El Salvador's ranking would be a bit more vulnerable in the short-term with all the upcoming away matches, so hopefully we can make up some of the current +30 point differential that separates us. October could be quite an exciting window knowing that El Salvador has 2 away matches and we have our home match against the US.
  11. According to ELO, Panama has 4 home friendlies scheduled during November, which is in addition to their one Nations League match in November against Mexico. The home friendlies are against Nicaragua, Bolivia, the UAE, and Suriname. I guess they figure they had to do that since they're in Mexico's Nations League group, so they're looking at a scenario where they might only earn points from 2 matches with Bermuda. Honduras is in a group with Martinique, so in the group stage at least, the only points they can earn come from 2 matches with Trinidad and Tobago. If Montserrat can give El Salvador a run for their money again like they did in Nations League Qualifying, that could be massively helpful for us. I know we have 2 matches against Cuba first, but I'm really getting excited for our home match against the US on October 15th.
  12. If I was someone at Canada Soccer looking at friendly results within CONCACAF and comparing them to the current FIFA rankings so that I could try and maximize our points to get us closer to the top 6, I would be thinking that the group of 3 countries right underneath Curacao and Haiti (Trinidad and Tobago, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Kitts and Nevis) would be ideal opponents if you don't want to set up a friendly with a country you're also competing with for a top 6 spot. Those 3 countries are just 3, 4, and 5 spots below us in the FIFA rankings so they would be the next best thing. We defeated Trinidad and Tobago 2-0 in the closed door friendly and Saint Kitts and Nevis 1-0 in Nations League Qualifying. Saint Kitts and Nevis just hosted Antigua and Barbuda for 2 matches the last 3 days and defeated them 3-0 and 4-3. They would be ideal opponents, if possible, at some point before June 2020 and would earn us more points than minnows, who we shouldn't be considering anyway. Those 3 countries aren't available for the October or November window unfortunately where we need to have a 2nd match scheduled. Saint Kitts and Nevis and Antigua and Barbuda both have 2 Nations League matches in October and November. Trinidad and Tobago was available for a 2nd match in October until Mexico snapped them up for an early October friendly. Panama and Curacao (currently ranked 7th and 9th in CONCACAF) each only had 1 October match (Nations League), but they have created a 2nd match for themselves by playing a friendly against each other on October 10. The clock is ticking to get a 2nd October match set up, and within our own region, the number of good, comparable teams available are diminishing.
  13. It looks like Honduras has their September friendlies confirmed since they don't start Nations League until October. Elo lists them as playing 2 home matches, September 5th against Puerto Rico and September 10th against Chile. If our Nations League match against Cuba is only expected to earn us around 3 FIFA points, Honduras will earn even less than that since their match is only a friendly. If their match against Chile goes how you'd think it would, hopefully they lose more points than they gain and they finish the September window lower than 1350 points.
  14. It's neither here nor there at this point, but I did some searching to see if anyone still had one of the recent CONCACAF rankings before they were scrubbed from the CONCACAF website. Here's how things looked at the start of April, after the end of Nations League Qualifying but before the Gold Cup: 1. Mexico 2009 2. USA 1879 3. Costa Rica 1776 4. Honduras 1641 5. Panama 1558 6. Canada 1502 7. Jamaica 1473 8. Guatemala 1431 9. El Salvador 1424 10. Haiti 1392 15. Curacao 1069 We certainly had the upper hand on El Salvador, but those tables have been turned now with the FIFA rankings currently giving El Salvador an automatic spot in the Hex. I included Curacao as well just because they must be loving the change. They were nowhere close to challenging for a Hex spot, but only find themselves 3 points behind us in the current FIFA rankings, 1312 to 1309.
  15. Not at all! I'm already looking forward to mid-October. Not only do we have our home match against the US, but the potential is there to gain some significant ground on both Honduras and Panama. Honduras won't be earning any points against Martinique, and hopefully Panama doesn't earn any points in Mexico. Could be a great month all around for CanMNT! 💪 😃
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