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jtpc

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  1. Iceland has defeated El Salvador 1-0. Really hope El Salvador wasn't successful in changing this to a training match.
  2. Thinking of the lower-seeded 7-35 side for a moment, it's too bad the intercontinental playoff matchups are still TBD. What a difference between the prospect of facing the 5th place South American country or New Zealand as your final hurdle to get to the World Cup. If it's the former, I would want to be in the Hex no matter what. If it's the latter, the 7-35 side looks fantastic. Saint Kitts and Nevis + Suriname might be scheduling a few friendlies between now and July as one of them will end up in pot 1. They're currently separated by only 1 ranking point for that final seeded spot. If you wanted to be guaranteed in the first round not to play any of the 7 countries ranked ahead of you, it's worth fighting for. Apart from that and whether we catch El Salvador or not, the pots on the 7-35 side look pretty much set. If you're a lower-ranked country, there really isn't any incentive to try to get into pot 2 instead of 3, so I don't see a lot changing there. Assuming things stayed the same as they are today, once you gave us, Curacao, Panama, Haiti, Trinidad and Tobago, Antigua and Barbuda, Guatemala, and Saint Kitts and Nevis their own group, the FIFA ranking of the next 8 countries range from 141 to 168. Quite a drop. Not only would that be your closest competition ranking-wise in that initial group stage, but 5 of the 8 groups would also have 2 countries ranked even lower than that.
  3. I'll be shocked if we don't give up a goal trying to play it out of our own end. El Salvador has to be loving this. We go to the trouble of scheduling 3 friendlies and hardly gain anything on them at all, 0.56 of a ranking point.
  4. I like Antigua and Barbuda as a possible opponent for us if we were looking to set something up within CONCACAF. They're right underneath Trinidad and Tobago, in that next tier underneath Curacao, Panama, and Haiti. They lost 8-0 to Guatemala in November, but their ranking is still high enough that we would get 3 points from a win against them. Play them twice and you're looking at a great chance for 6 more points.
  5. Well done, boys! 1333 points now for CanMNT. Just like that, the 15 point deficit has been narrowed to 13. Those footsteps you hear behind you, El Salvador, are getting louder!
  6. If we were looking at CONCACAF opposition, I still like Trinidad & Tobago as a potential matchup. They're right underneath similarly ranked teams to us (Curacao, Panama, Haiti) and they're high enough that we would still receive 4 points for a win. We defeated them 2-0 just last year, right before the Gold Cup. Just my own gut feeling, but I would rather take a little less risk and have an excellent chance to gain 4 points than try for a 5 or 6 point team and end up with a draw or a loss.
  7. We began the night 15 points behind El Salvador and now we've cut it to 14. Well done, boys!
  8. I don't think I've ever wanted 1.13 FIFA ranking points so badly in my life. Let's go CanMNT!
  9. I'm quite pessimistic about our chances against Iceland as I feel their players will have had developmental systems in place that will result in better cohesion even though they're not the A squad. When I first saw that we were playing Iceland, my reaction was: "We're trying to gain points, right, and not lose them?" I don't have any confidence that without our international players, we would defeat even a domestic Icelandic side. So, I'm glad to see the 2 additional matches against Barbados. I think we don't come out of this any further ahead points-wise. I wouldn't be surprised if what we gained against Barbados (+2.25) was basically given back against Iceland (-1.89). I'd be ecstatic with two 1-0 wins over Barbados (+1.13 and 1.12 points) and a 0-0 draw with Iceland (+0.61 points), giving us an additional 2.86 points (3 with rounding).
  10. Confirmation on ELO that El Salvador will play Iceland on January 19th and the US on February 1st. Best case scenario, they lose both and drop 3.5 points (hopefully 4 full points with rounding). Instead of a 15-point difference between them and us, it would be down to 11, 1342 to 1331.
  11. I'm hoping El Salvador keep those friendlies they've scheduled as I'm not convinced they'd be overly successful given who they're playing. If the intercontinental playoff is against South America, forget it, we need to be in the Hex. If it's against one of the other 2 regions, I don't mind the 7-35 side, especially if it's Oceania. In addition to what we schedule, I'll be interested to see what Saint Kitts and Nevis and Suriname schedule between now and June 2020. There's a real incentive for one of those countries to be ahead of the other in the June 2020 rankings. Of the countries on the 7-35 side, Saint Kitts and Nevis is currently 8th with 1074 points and Suriname is only 1 point behind them. The benefit to finishing 8th is you're a top seed for the first round and you don't have anyone in your group that is ranked higher than you are. One of those 2 countries will avoid the likes of Canada, Curacao, Panama, and Haiti in the group stage, while the other could potentially be in a group with one of them. That's quite a significant difference for only being 1 point apart right now in the rankings.
  12. If Dominican Republic can hold El Salvador to a draw, it looks like El Salvador would lose around 6.5 points. I think they would drop to 1334, only 3 points higher than us at 1331. Imagine how nice it would be to only have 3 points to make up with friendlies.
  13. I'd be interested to know far into the 7-35 qualification process teams will be seeded for draws. Of course, because it's CONCACAF, I'm sure they won't decide that until each stage of the process unfolds. 😉 Since there are 8 groups, I would assume that the 8 highest ranked teams as of the June 2020 rankings (teams 7-14), will each get their own group. That makes sense. Once the group stage is over and we have 8 group winners, I wonder if they'll rank the 8 countries into a top 4 pot and a bottom 4 pot and draw the quarter-final matchups that way, or if it will be a free for all where you could get any matchup with the remaining 8 countries. I guess it depends how long they want to protect the top 4 for (say that's us, Curacao, Panama, and Haiti just as an example), or do they want to open up the possibility that a top 4 team could play another top 4 team as soon as the knockout stage begins.
  14. I was really starting to think Montserrat was going to hang on. We were minutes away from being no worse off having lost 8 points on Friday, as El Salvador would have lost 9 points themselves. Instead, now they're up 9 points on us, 1340 to 1331. It's not much consolation since El Salvador ultimately won, but that was some pretty tough sledding for El Salvador for 4 ranking points.
  15. @Kent did some great calculations for this window on page 25 of the USA/Canada match thread. El Salvador would gain 4 with a win over Montserrat. They would lose 8.5 with a draw and 21 with a loss. Against Dominican Republic, El Salvador would gain 6 with a win. They would lose 6.5 with a draw and 19 with a loss.
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