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About ardsa

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  1. RE: March Friendly I keep thinking that everyone is waiting until after the November window, and only then there will be some large incentives to be risky. Between Canada, El Salvador, Curacao, and Panama there will be 2 to 3 teams trying to get points and the team sitting in sixth scared to lose ground. Honduras is sitting pretty already qualified for Nations League Finals. Canada and Curacao have decent chances to move onto the Nations League Finals. If either of these teams makes the Nations League Finals , they will likely not need friendlies and will pin their hopes on Nations League in June. If either of those two don't make the semis, then they are in the mix. For everyone not in the Finals, (El Salvador, likely Panama, and possibly Canada and Curacao), the best coarse of action may be playing each other in a neutral site and laying it all on the line over March and June. A nice mini-tournament with four games each and all the other external factors eliminated may be the best. I these two to four teams are all scheduling friendlies across the globe with random countries there is no way to even guarantee that if you win four games you will be in. The mini tournament at least gives one of these countries a chance. One other thing to think about is location of the Nations League A Finals. Canada is really nice in June. If the USA is not in the Finals, perhaps the CSA will bid a good chunk of money to host this thing. Is anyone outside of USA, Mexico, and Canada likely to have the bid necessary to stage four matches with only two of them involving the home nation? Could anyone else net enough tickets at the gate to cover costs? If concacaf wants to make money (or a least break even) then I think those three are the best choice. Hopefully it is in Canada.
  2. January is not an official international break. We would have to be pretty desperate to need to schedule low coefficient matches without our top players.
  3. My understanding is that points are actually recalculated on a daily basis. Our second win against Cuba was worth less since the first win widened our point spread against them. If you want exact numbers you will have to recalculate the world on a daily basis. I hope the federation has a good spreadsheet or program for figuring out how to make the top six if they are doing future scenarios.
  4. -19.6 points to El Salvador if that score holds.
  5. Belize no showed for the game against French Guiana. https://concacafnationsleague.com/en/article/concacaf-statement It will be interesting to see why. May they didn't want to spend the money to travel to South America for a game that gets them no points?
  6. https://concacafnationsleague.com/en/article/concacaf-nations-league-to-serve-as-pathway-for-2021-gold-cup Canada, Honduras, and Panama have 4 + 2 possible games in Nations League. Honduras has the easier opponents. Canada is in tough and it may be impossible to make the hex. Mexico, US, and Costa Rica are likely guaranteed. Jamaica and El Salvador have 6 easy high point games. Honduras has an easier schedule and likely cannot be caught. I may get ambitious tonight with a spreadsheet, but I don't think we have a shot at top 6 points in June 2020 without winning all of our games through at least semi-finals if not the final of Nations League. edit: Honduras is in a group with Martinique and those won't accrue points. They have 2 guaranteed games.
  7. I'm not sure it is possible to decrease points in the semi-final or finals. Those matches should be: I= 25 Play-off and final matches of Nations League competitions Competitive matches in championship tournaments are now distinguished between group stage matches and late-stage knock-out matches in order to reward the most successful teams in the most difficult competitions. Furthermore, to mitigate the negative consequences of losing matches in championship tournaments, losses in the knock-out rounds of final competitions will not result in point deductions for the losing team. source: https://resources.fifa.com/image/upload/fifa-world-ranking-technical-explanation-revision.pdf?cloudid=edbm045h0udbwkqew35a
  8. I know, but it is the semantics of it I am referring to. Rankings seem to come out 8 days after an international window closes, or a major tournament finishes. Points are calculated on a daily basis, but not published right away. The June 2020 window is 1-9 June. This is when the Nations League semi-finals and finals will be. Canada will either compete in these matches or schedule friendlies ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. Rankings should be published June 17th. Is it too hard for Concacaf to be clear that it is the June 17th rankings that will determine the hex? Make it clear that it is not the rankings as of June 1 or 30th. What is stopping us from scheduling more friendlies outside of the June window to scrape a few points until the end of June?
  9. I'm just echoing everyone's frustration, but Concacaf really needs to do better in laying out their four year schedules in advance and advising teams of the "Importance" factor of every game. This is amateur hour, and not just for Canada. Panama has apparently scheduled a bunch of friendlies that may not accomplish what they wanted them to do now that the Nations League games are worth more. They may have wasted millions of dollars with their plans as well.
  10. As we are thinking of scenarios, keep in mind that the Nations League Playoffs (top team from each of the four League A groups) will playoff in June 2020. These will I have I=25 (Play-off and final matches of Nations League competitions), but there should be no loss of points if we don't win those games. Of course the FIFA document only references "competitive tournaments" - Nations League should apply. I'm not 100% sure of the timeline, but these matches may count for the Hex top 6.
  11. There is new information from the Gold Cup 2021 thread. These games are now assigned an importance of a Gold Cup Qualifier, (I = 25 instead of 15). Therefore there are 1.66 times more points up for grabs. Games vs Cuba worth about 5 points for a win or loss (actual points in game 2 depend on revised team points following game 1) Games vs USA worth about 17.8 points instead of 10.7
  12. Herdman interview from earlier today: https://www.tsn.ca/soccer/video/herdman-we-had-our-minds-in-costa-rica-bit-of-a-shock-we-ll-be-playing-haiti~1716256
  13. Also of note in the regulations, CONCACAF has its say on friendlies within 100 miles of venues within 60 days of the competition. This may be some insight into why the game vs T&T was not an official match. They likely would have had to pay money to CONCACAF to hold an official match in L.A.
  14. I got curious and looked it up. Yellows do reset after the QF. https://res.cloudinary.com/concacaf-production/image/upload/v1554934799/goldcup-prod/assets/2019_Gold_Cup_Regulations_-_ENG.pdf
  15. Women's game on June 15 is at 3pm Eastern
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