WCQ: Third Round - Window 2 (October 7-13, 2021)

[dyslexic nam]

8 minutes ago, Floortom said:

None of the other matches have big implications for us IMO, but I would go for:

1. USA win over CR - keeps CR firmly in our rear view mirror

2. Honduras draw vs Jamaica - keeps both squads down at the bottom. If one team has to win I would probably go for Jamaica because that would effectively end Honduras' campagin

3. Mexico win over El Salvador

I kind of disagree that they don’t have big implications.  With the grouping the way it is now (and 3 points separating 2nd from 6th) pretty much every game has big implications for the group.  Hell, even a game like Mexico (1st) vs Jamaica (last) is a big deal insofar as it has the potential to move Jamaica up into the chase group and drag Mexico CL down into the dogfight.  That is what makes this whole process so exciting for me - at this stage (and for the next window or two) there are literally no meaningless games.  

[Approve My Account Pls]

1 hour ago, Floortom said:

None of the other matches have big implications for us IMO, but I would go for:

1. USA win over CR - keeps CR firmly in our rear view mirror

2. Honduras draw vs Jamaica - keeps both squads down at the bottom. If one team has to win I would probably go for Jamaica because that would effectively end Honduras' campagin

3. Mexico win over El Salvador

Am I naive in hoping the US draw Costa Rica? Based off CR's play I don't really see them as a legitimate threat and having the US sweat longer forces them to have to beat down other teams later in qualifiers

[CanadaFan123]

5 minutes ago, Approve My Account Pls said:

Am I naive in hoping the US draw Costa Rica? Based off CR's play I don't really see them as a legitimate threat and having the US sweat longer forces them to have to beat down other teams later in qualifiers

Nope I think you're spot on. Also gives us a chance to win a morale victory by jumping into 2nd with a win. 

[Cblake]

4 minutes ago, Approve My Account Pls said:

Am I naive in hoping the US draw Costa Rica? Based off CR's play I don't really see them as a legitimate threat and having the US sweat longer forces them to have to beat down other teams later in qualifiers

Not at all, it would would certainly apply some heat to the US as you mentioned and keep Canada in a decent place regardless of their result. A tie in the match and a Canada win would be huge for their World Cup qualifying attempt going into the November matches. It should be interesting. 

[Unnamed Trialist]

10 hours ago, Floortom said:

None of the other matches have big implications for us IMO, but I would go for:

1. USA win over CR - keeps CR firmly in our rear view mirror

2. Honduras draw vs Jamaica - keeps both squads down at the bottom. If one team has to win I would probably go for Jamaica because that would effectively end Honduras' campagin

3. Mexico win over El Salvador

If they all draw and we win, that puts us within a win of taking over the lead in the group. 

It also puts us ahead of the States in 2nd spot.

I realise that may not happen. But still, better to have two teams behind us than one. 

Yes, I am seriously thinking about winning the group. Let the rest fight it out for the other spots.

Edit: sorry for the edit but want to lay this out.

Clearly, winning today is very important. If you win you can forget about the rest.

If not, though, if we draw, we are still a point behind third spot. And if the US draw, a point behind the second spot. 

That essentially makes the next match in November, vs. Costa Rica, equivalent to this one: we get to try another must win, but with players fresh. While the US is handling Mexico. 

As long as all the other teams have a chance, they have to go all out all matches. In these 2-3 match windows, that stretches depth, forces injuries, means they can't let up, everyone has to travel. Better for us as I see it, given we are currently playing without Larin, Hoillet, Hutch, Cavallini, Ayo even...

Edited October 13, 2021 by Unnamed Trialist

[An Observer]

5 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

If they all draw and we win, that puts us within a win of taking over the lead in the group. 

Good chance Mexico loses both matches next window (away to US and us) and we win both which would put us ahead of them even if we both win today 

[Cblake]

The Americans will definitely be looking to step up tonight vs. Costa Rica at home. They will be motivated in front of a home town crowd. To call the starting lineup chosen by Gregg Berhalter for Sunday’s  World Cup qualifying loss to Panama a surprise is an understatement. The result of Berhalter’s seven-player shakeup was the arguable their worst performance in a competitive match since he took over as U.S. men’s national team coach. I am still shaking my head at how many in form players he sat coming off the victory over Jamaica. 

[CanadaFan123]

Another thing to keep an eye on is Costa Rica's card situation. We should be hoping they chop it up against the US so they have suspensions vs. us next month.

[Floortom]

5 minutes ago, An Observer said:

Good chance Mexico loses both matches next window (away to US and us) and we win both which would put us ahead of them even if we both win today 

I actually want Mexico to win their next two matches - and especially the one against the US. That will make them most vulnerable when they come to Edmonton. If they lose vs US you can bet they’re going to be coming into Edmonton guns blazing.

[Approve My Account Pls]

2 minutes ago, Floortom said:

I actually want Mexico to win their next two matches - and especially the one against the US. That will make them most vulnerable when they come to Edmonton. If they lose vs US you can bet they’re going to be coming into Edmonton guns blazing.

For Mexico I hope the ref whips out a crazy amount of yellow cards today and in the US match in Nov to hopefully weaken them further coming up to Edmonton

[SpursFlu]

If the US lose and Honduras win this thing turns in to a giant toss up

[Cblake]

1 minute ago, Approve My Account Pls said:

For Mexico I hope the ref whips out a crazy amount of yellow cards today and in the US match in Nov to hopefully weaken them further coming up to Edmonton

I will be very interesting to see what the Mexican yellow card situation is after tonight. Does anyone know what it is currently

[Gian-Luca]

21 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

If they all draw and we win, that puts us within a win of taking over the lead in the group. 

It also puts us ahead of the States in 2nd spot.

I realise that may not happen. But still, better to have two teams behind us than one. 

Yes, I am seriously thinking about winning the group. Let the rest fight it out for the other spots.

Edit: sorry for the edit but want to lay this out.

Clearly, winning today is very important. If you win you can forget about the rest.

If not, though, if we draw, we are still a point behind third spot. And if the US draw, a point behind the second spot. 

That essentially makes the next match in November, vs. Costa Rica, equivalent to this one: we get to try another must win, but with players fresh. While the US is handling Mexico. 

As long as all the other teams have a chance, they have to go all out all matches. In these 2-3 match windows, that stretches depth, forces injuries, means they can't let up, everyone has to travel. Better for us as I see it, given we are currently playing without Larin, Hoillet, Hutch, Cavallini, Ayo even...

Quite. Mexico & the US still have to take points off each other, which is something that is rarely being mentioned when people talk about (or assume) both teams being unreachable. Unless Costa Rica upsets the US with their 39 year olds, or El Salvador beats Mexico at home, we would still be in 4th place even with a disastrous loss tonight. The disastrous part in that scenario would be that the top three would all be 4 or more points ahead of us, rather than us falling down the table. And our last game of this tourney is in Panama so we want to be ahead of them going into that last game if they end up being with us in the top 4

I am more concerned about not winning tonight with the majority of our top offensive players out injured or tired than I am about losing, but anything is possible. Hopefully our tired boys get some adrenaline from playing in front of the home support.

Edited October 13, 2021 by Gian-Luca

[An Observer]

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/oct/13/canada-are-stronger-than-ever-and-the-best-may-be-yet-to-come

[Approve My Account Pls]

1 minute ago, Cblake said:

I will be very interesting to see what the Mexican yellow card situation is after tonight. Does anyone know what it is currently

If I counted correctly I believe Corona, Gallardo, and Vega are all on yellows. Alvarez and Montes already had two each and served suspensions

[Cblake]

3 minutes ago, Approve My Account Pls said:

If I counted correctly I believe Corona, Gallardo, and Vega are all on yellows. Alvarez and Montes already had two each and served suspensions

Hopefully all those guys survive the tonight and a few more for others pile up, then the second ones can all come vs. the US next month and before you know it they are all out for the game vs. Canada in Edmonton. Fingers Crossed ( :

[narduch]

One Soccer post game show will be free on YouTube 

 

[Kent]

4 hours ago, Approve My Account Pls said:

Am I naive in hoping the US draw Costa Rica? Based off CR's play I don't really see them as a legitimate threat and having the US sweat longer forces them to have to beat down other teams later in qualifiers

I am definitely hoping the USA beat Costa Rica. Costa Rica are too close behind us (only 1 point!) for my liking. I don't want them to be let back in. So far Canada and Costa Rica have both beaten El Salvador at home, tied Honduras (us at home, them on the road), tied Jamaica (us on the road, them at home). We tied the USA, they tied Panama. We got a draw against Mexico, while Costa Rica lost to Mexico. The margin between the two of us is razor thin at the moment, deprive them of points!

I said this before, probably in another thread, if other teams get draws in USA, that nullifies our good result in Nashville.

[A_Gagne]

14 hours ago, narduch said:

Canada used to use Kevin McKenna as a striker when he was young.

He did so well at one point he was on pace to be Canada's all time leading scorer. Ended up with 11 goals for Canada 

Vitoria and Doneil be like #thedream!

[kacbru]

4 hours ago, Approve My Account Pls said:

If I counted correctly I believe Corona, Gallardo, and Vega are all on yellows. Alvarez and Montes already had two each and served suspensions

Where do you go to find this? Is there a table somewhere that collates all this or do you have to count from the match reports?

[Club Linesman]

This qualifying will be a dog fight right to the end.  The closeness of the results so far has demonstrated that.  We need to win 2 of our next 3 games and tie the other one minimum.  Do that and I would be in the draw camp for other results as 7 points and other teams only grabbing 2 or 3 would move us to the top and start separating us from our true competition for 3rd.  We also really want the US and Mexico to have something to play for. I would hate to have them tank their final game at our expense.

[footballfreak]

6 hours ago, Floortom said:

None of the other matches have big implications for us IMO, but I would go for:

1. USA win over CR - keeps CR firmly in our rear view mirror

2. Honduras draw vs Jamaica - keeps both squads down at the bottom. If one team has to win I would probably go for Jamaica because that would effectively end Honduras' campagin

3. Mexico win over El Salvador

These games definitely have implications for us. Looking ahead, our last window is Costa Rica, Jamaica, Panama. Anything that takes any of these three teams out of contention for the 4th spot before March is a positive.

Costa Rica without Keylor? Yes please.

Edited October 13, 2021 by footballfreak

[Kadenge]

1 hour ago, Club Linesman said:

This qualifying will be a dog fight right to the end.  The closeness of the results so far has demonstrated that.  We need to win 2 of our next 3 games and tie the other one minimum.  Do that and I would be in the draw camp for other results as 7 points and other teams only grabbing 2 or 3 would move us to the top and start separating us from our true competition for 3rd.  We also really want the US and Mexico to have something to play for. I would hate to have them tank their final game at our expense.

This...Honduras (away)tied Mexico in their last game in 2018 WCQ

[CanadianSoccerFan]

15 minutes ago, Kadenge said:

This...Honduras (away)tied Mexico in their last game in 2018 WCQ

Not enough is said of this debacle.  Mexico put out a bunch of kids and it cost us a place in the hex 

[maplebanana]

Uhhh.... CRC just scored in the first minute against the USA.