CPL new teams speculation

[Winnipeg Fury]

1 hour ago, SpursFlu said:

Unreliable Source... what a great band. Are they still together?

No, but they have a rare 7", if you can find it.

[top cheese]

1 hour ago, Shway said:

Damn, is NL really that unsustainable? Why is Halfiax okay, but they aren't? 

Halifax is a progressive growing city

nf is on the verge of bankruptcy, a population that’s massively declining, impossible to do business, a lot of the same cyclical foolishness

[youllneverwalkalone]

^Sounds like most of the UK, where football is alive and well.

[m-g-williams]

2 hours ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

Vaguely remember reading that part of the problem is that there are too many flight cancellations out of St John's that leave teams stranded in Nfld for longer than they intended.

For the winter, yes - this is obviously an obstacle for hockey. For soccer in the spring/summer/autumn, not so much. 

All the same, as much as I want to see a CPL team in town, I just don't see it working. Sigh. 

[Shway]

3 hours ago, PaulV said:

Travel costs are always an issue for Newfoundland sports teams. They have a constant revolving door of hockey teams...AHL, ECHL, Junior. Teams are often required to subsidize the travel costs yof the rest of the league which is a huge barrier to entry.

I said "ahhhhh I see!" ... at first. Then I looked up the various leagues you mentioned and realized it's an apples to orange comparison.

These teams play in leagues that are North America wide, cross travel and play up to 90 games a season - depending on how they do in the postseason. 

Nooooooo wonder why they have to subsidize travel, flights get cancelled/or delayed so often. Its hard for it to make sense at the junior level, much less at minor league level. 

If there is a CPL team... 15-20 times they'll have to travel within Canada, and 15-20 times teams will have to travel to NFLD.

I still think it can be a good market in the likes of HFX. 

Edited January 8, 2020 by Shway

[CDNFootballer]

 

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

So how does that square with David Clanachan's repeated assessment around the time of the final games of three being close and more recently of four being furthest along? Not sure what to make of that.

[Winnipeg Fury]

4 hours ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

So how does that square with David Clanachan's repeated assessment around the time of the final games of three being close and more recently of four being furthest along? Not sure what to make of that.

 

It tells me there is serious interest in Ottawa.

 

[Gopherbashi]

9 hours ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

So how does that square with David Clanachan's repeated assessment around the time of the final games of three being close and more recently of four being furthest along? Not sure what to make of that.

I've lost interest in anything that comes out of Clanachan's mouth on the expansion front.

Heard enough of the same from Bill Peterson during the NASL days.  Clanachan hasn't shown himself to be any more reliable.

I'll believe it when there's a formal announcement.  Until then, it just seems like hot air.

Edited January 9, 2020 by Gopherbashi

[youllneverwalkalone]

Re: $9m Valuation for new clubs

I heard new Caps CEO Mark Pannes on the radio today. He was talking about the potential for a huge pay day for MLS in 2022 when all their media rights come up. He was saying that the value of a professional club is based primarily on these rights. He used the Boston Celtics as an example (I think because they don't own their own building). He said throw away all the titles, all the history. It's all about the rights.

So I looked into this a bit. Forbes values the Celtic at 2.2b. Their local rights are worth $36m per season until 2038, say $648m. The national right are about $84m till 2025, say $433m. I assume there are more streaming, international, and other rights out there I couldn't find.

But if there are 7 partners in CSB and CSB has a $200m media contract, you'd think a share of this for $9m might be a deal. Or put another way, it might be a window into how much of the MediaPro deal is cash, versus assumption of expenses to produce the matches. 

Edited January 9, 2020 by youllneverwalkalone

[Viruk42]

30 minutes ago, Gopherbashi said:

I'll believe it when there's a formal announcement.  Until then, it just seems like hot air.

To be fair, this is how you should treat any sports rumours, whether about acquiring/departing players or adding new teams. 

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

47 minutes ago, youllneverwalkalone said:

...But if there are 7 partners in CSB and CSB has a $200m media contract, you'd think a share of this for $9m might be a deal. Or put another way, it might be a window into how much of the MediaPro deal is cash, ...

Agree in part but you also have to factor in sponsorship deals like the Volkswagen one and keep in mind that they could be projecting a future huge post-2026 World Cup increase in the value of a CSB share into the equation.

[SpursFlu]

This Pannedsguy has been very transparent. He's said a lot of interesting things. The NFL/MLS synergy was interesting but a bit scary of you consider the strength they yield and how they can upset the world of football. I think it's already happening. I thought his comments about cities made up new citizens like Atlanta being a big opportunity. Clearly this relates to Vancouver as well

Edited January 9, 2020 by SpursFlu

[IAmPappy]

2 hours ago, youllneverwalkalone said:

Re: $9m Valuation for new clubs

I heard new Caps CEO Mark Pannes on the radio today. He was talking about the potential for a huge pay day for MLS in 2022 when all their media rights come up. He was saying that the value of a professional club is based primarily on these rights. He used the Boston Celtics as an example (I think because they don't own their own building). He said throw away all the titles, all the history. It's all about the rights.

So I looked into this a bit. Forbes values the Celtic at 2.2b. Their local rights are worth $36m per season until 2038, say $648m. The national right are about $84m till 2025, say $433m. I assume there are more streaming, international, and other rights out there I couldn't find.

But if there are 7 partners in CSB and CSB has a $200m media contract, you'd think a share of this for $9m might be a deal. Or put another way, it might be a window into how much of the MediaPro deal is cash, versus assumption of expenses to produce the matches. 

THIS ^^^^^

The most underrated post of the week. Refreshing. Imagine, doing a little homework to get some quantitative backing for your hypothesis, rather than “$9M just feels too high”. Thank you!

[The Real Marc]

Still feels too high though 

[BFBF]

5 hours ago, Gopherbashi said:

I've lost interest in anything that comes out of Clanachan's mouth on the expansion front.

Heard enough of the same from Bill Peterson during the NASL days.  Clanachan hasn't shown himself to be any more reliable.

I'll believe it when there's a formal announcement.  Until then, it just seems like hot air.

This is funny, given that the NASL gave out franchises to anyone with pockets (not even deep pockets). The CPL is yet to announce a team. Not similar approaches...

[Watchmen]

8 hours ago, youllneverwalkalone said:

Re: $9m Valuation for new clubs

I heard new Caps CEO Mark Pannes on the radio today. He was talking about the potential for a huge pay day for MLS in 2022 when all their media rights come up. He was saying that the value of a professional club is based primarily on these rights. He used the Boston Celtics as an example (I think because they don't own their own building). He said throw away all the titles, all the history. It's all about the rights.

So I looked into this a bit. Forbes values the Celtic at 2.2b. Their local rights are worth $36m per season until 2038, say $648m. The national right are about $84m till 2025, say $433m. I assume there are more streaming, international, and other rights out there I couldn't find.

But if there are 7 partners in CSB and CSB has a $200m media contract, you'd think a share of this for $9m might be a deal. Or put another way, it might be a window into how much of the MediaPro deal is cash, versus assumption of expenses to produce the matches. 

This is where it would be very handy if the league actually provided a breakdown on that $200m contract.  Because we know it's not all cash.  And we also know it's not all for the CPL, as the national teams are getting some portion of it.  And a fun new wrinkle for this year: the CPL is almost certainly going to be paying Onesoccer something.  We know this because they're giving away Onesoccer subscriptions with season tickets sold, and someone's eating that cost.  And by someone, I mean the league.

 

[PaulV]

8 hours ago, Watchmen said:

This is where it would be very handy if the league actually provided a breakdown on that $200m contract. 

 

Yes, we really know next to nothing about the contract and the money involved. The league has taken non-transparency to the next level, which is their right of course. We can only infer things from what's actually happening. So far, the investment has resulted in zero people signing on the dotted line. This can all change, so it will be a while before we know for sure. If they get credible business people to hop on the bandwagon then they can show it to be a good investment; if no one signs on or if we find out that they have to drop the expansion fee to a much smaller amount then it might amount to be more 'promise' than reality.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

 

[BuzzAndSting]

On 1/5/2020 at 7:02 AM, Ottawafan said:

It’s not about beating a dead horse. In a league that charged a million or so to be a part of, they will need to justify a $9M expansion fee one year later. See anyone joining this year?  Anyone at this point on track for 2021?
I’m glad the league didn’t go broke in its first year. I’ve been involved in this game a long time and want opportunities for young Canadians to play and develop here. I have always been about what’s best for the development of the game in Canada. I don’t feel the need to tear down others who are willing to put their time and money on the line to advance the game. But your mentality of our way or the highway is what is wrong with soccer in Canada. 

 

On 1/5/2020 at 10:16 AM, Ottawafan said:

The expansion fee number isn’t my number it’s the CPL’s. And that was what the expansion fee was to start in the new league last year. 
It has stopped expansion into at least one market. Maybe a strong second season would justify that $9M expansion fee. 

🤔 If the rumours are true, the $9M isn’t that big of a deal...

[IAmPappy]

22 minutes ago, BuzzAndSting said:

 

🤔 If the rumours are true, the $9M isn’t that big of a deal...

Yup. I’ll stand by my position that $9M is not outrageous and that anything under $3M would actually point to a failing business model. I base this opinion on my rudimentary valuation of CSB, which is based on data that is public or estimated. Not feelings. 

Edited January 15, 2020 by IAmPappy

[Viruk42]

As I shared in the Ottawa CPL thread...

o.O

[narduch]

Its a little hilarious following these 'insiders'.

The new rumour is Atletico is the group.

That's a damn definitive statement by Nef though.

[toontownman]

Yep. Wouldn't call Atletico much bigger than Espanyol tbh. 🤷‍♂️

Great news though and much needed. Getting up to the 8 team mark seemed very unlikely not that long ago so very excited. 

Less excited by the prospect of pushing Saskatoon back to 2022. Hope that is baseless. Will all depend on how the city supports the SKSSS this year in the stands and off them. 

[dnina10]

28 minutes ago, toontownman said:

Yep. Wouldn't call Atletico much bigger than Espanyol tbh. 🤷‍♂️

Great news though and much needed. Getting up to the 8 team mark seemed very unlikely not that long ago so very excited. 

Less excited by the prospect of pushing Saskatoon back to 2022. Hope that is baseless. Will all depend on how the city supports the SKSSS this year in the stands and off them. 

I'm with you on that front. Based on the attendances for sporting events in the province, and that there is space to play, it would be unwise to push them back farther than 2021. I really hope they get a team soon. When they do, I will definitely support them too.

Edited January 15, 2020 by dnina10
Typo