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CPL new teams speculation

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2 hours ago, Ansem said:

I view Barrie as a potential Division 2 location.

Very much so. The numbers just don't add up. 

This list on Wikipedia is done by size and frankly is the only guide we need for where to talk about putting teams. Once we have either placed a team , or eliminated from contention for other reasons, the first 16 municipalities on the list in the CanPL, then we can talk about Barrie which is ranked 21 in terms of metro population.

Edit: I still like either Saskatoon or Regina for emotional reasons even if they are below the 16 threshold.

Edited by ted
romance

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8 minutes ago, ted said:

Very much so. The numbers just don't add up. 

This list on Wikipedia is done by size and frankly is the only guide we need for where to talk about putting teams. Once we have either placed a team , or eliminated from contention for other reasons, the first 16 municipalities on the list in the CanPL, then we can talk about Barrie which is ranked 21 in terms of metro population.

Edit: I still like either Saskatoon or Regina for emotional reasons even if they are below the 16 threshold.

The league has actively been involved in courting the founding or key markets in the build up to launch and subsequent discussions, but I am not sure we want something as tightly managed as a list of the only 16 CPL sites possible - and others need not apply.  St. John's is #20 and would essentially get the support of a whole province (not in the stands per se, but emotionally).  Does that mean they shouldn't be considered?  And if they are a legit possibility, along with Saskatoon or Regina for sentimental reasons, who is to say that a Barrie or a Moncton couldn't punch above their weight and make a go of it.

Certainly the league has a responsibility to ensure that overall operations are done in a way that facilitates success, but I would oppose anything like a heavy handed exclusion of some locales - especially those on the fringe of a population-based "top 16".  If an owner is available who will meet the due diligence requirements and can convince the league they are in it for the long haul, and a stadium can be secured, and the supporter base is there, it would be unfortunate if the league stage-managed entry to the extent that the market was excluded. 

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Given the way things are unfolding it looks like the order of expansion will be determined primarily by which markets can provide a suitable stadium and somebody willing to sign a cheque for $9,000,000. In recent weeks we have been hearing that Ottawa and Quebec City may not be happening because of the latter part of that equation, and it's important to bear in mind that Victoria has already replaced lower mainland BC at launch for stadium related reasons even though it was probably not the BC market that the league would have preferred for population size related reasons.

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1 hour ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

Given the way things are unfolding it looks like the order of expansion will be determined primarily by which markets can provide a suitable stadium and somebody willing to sign a cheque for $9,000,000.

He's forgetting that one of the richest estate in Canada, Saputo, thought that MLS expansion fees were too expensive at $40M while TFC had paid $10M. (Settled at 35M I think)  

Is he regretting now? No need to answer that. If you pause at the expansion fee, you aren't what the league is looking for and best to keep moving.

As for the stadium issue, governments aren't as willing to pay for a stadium like they did for TFC which was mostly built with public funds.

Edited by Ansem

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2 hours ago, dyslexic nam said:

...I am not sure we want something as tightly managed as a list of the only 16 CPL sites possible - and others need not apply.  St. John's is #20 and would essentially get the support of a whole province (not in the stands per se, but emotionally).  Does that mean they shouldn't be considered?  And if they are a legit possibility, along with Saskatoon or Regina for sentimental reasons, who is to say that a Barrie or a Moncton couldn't punch above their weight and make a go of it.

Fair enough. Make a case sure, but they have to have something that compensates for the lack of size. St. John's is a viable option because of the support it would receive as the only game in town. Saskatoon and Regina aren't so much sentimental for me as I am acknowledging that inside the province they expect to travel crazy distances to support "their" team (Roughriders).

I think Barrie is off the list for CanPL IMO because there are too many options nearby. It would make a great D3 or D2 city which could then grow. That said, if they could mobilize the support of the military in the area (permanent residents and transient) they might be able to make a case. Someday I think a Barrie-York Derby in the CanPL would be magnificent.

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5 hours ago, Ansem said:

He's forgetting that one of the richest estate in Canada, Saputo, thought that MLS expansion fees were too expensive at $40M while TFC had paid $10M. (Settled at 35M I think)  

Is he regretting now? No need to answer that. If you pause at the expansion fee, you aren't what the league is looking for and best to keep moving.

As for the stadium issue, governments aren't as willing to pay for a stadium like they did for TFC which was mostly built with public funds.

So you're example is of a potential owner who thought the expansion fees for the league were too high and balked at it, and the league agreed and lowered them because they understood the value of being in that market at that time?

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28 minutes ago, Watchmen said:

So you're example is of a potential owner who thought the expansion fees for the league were too high and balked at it, and the league agreed and lowered them because they understood the value of being in that market at that time?

Oops....my bad...MLS ended getting what they wanted. They paid $40M but refused at first

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/montreal-impact-financial-trouble-saputo-1.4861845

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16 hours ago, Ansem said:

He's forgetting that one of the richest estate in Canada, Saputo, thought that MLS expansion fees were too expensive at $40M while TFC had paid $10M. (Settled at 35M I think)  

Is he regretting now? No need to answer that. If you pause at the expansion fee, you aren't what the league is looking for and best to keep moving.

As for the stadium issue, governments aren't as willing to pay for a stadium like they did for TFC which was mostly built with public funds.

If i remember correctly he once said on a radio interview that $10 mil. was too high.

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30 minutes ago, MtlMario said:

If i remember correctly he once said on a radio interview that $10 mil. was too high.

It's possible, wouldn't surprised as he was trying to get a city tax reduction of like 90% and got a fraction of it.

I remember him clearly saying that paying more than TFC was unfair. He came around after Vancouver and Portland joined.

If an ownership doesn't want to pay what CPL is asking, they should keep moving. 

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1 hour ago, Ansem said:

It's possible, wouldn't surprised as he was trying to get a city tax reduction of like 90% and got a fraction of it.

I remember him clearly saying that paying more than TFC was unfair. He came around after Vancouver and Portland joined.

If an ownership doesn't want to pay what CPL is asking, they should keep moving. 

If ownership groups "keep moving" you get stuck with fewer teams, which isn't good for the league yet either.

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21 hours ago, ted said:

Very much so. The numbers just don't add up. 

This list on Wikipedia is done by size and frankly is the only guide we need for where to talk about putting teams. Once we have either placed a team , or eliminated from contention for other reasons, the first 16 municipalities on the list in the CanPL, then we can talk about Barrie which is ranked 21 in terms of metro population.

Edit: I still like either Saskatoon or Regina for emotional reasons even if they are below the 16 threshold.

Just to add to the pile-on - as of right now I would *AT MOST* allow one more southern Ontario team directly into the CPL and that would be Ottawa. There is already York, TFC & Hamilton and I think the division of market right now is not needed. So if we exclude those cities and those already with professional teams that leaves Quebec City, Saskatoon/Regina (when one is formed the other won't come around for quite a while), Sherbrooke, St. John's, Kelowna & Abbotsford - Mission (ie Fraser Valley). Of those six, three have been heavily involved in expansion talk so there's something to it all.

 

So what for the rest of Ontario? L1O. I would suggest that L1O is the proto-CPL2 and to use that platform as a way to prepare for entry into the CPL.

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59 minutes ago, Watchmen said:

If ownership groups "keep moving" you get stuck with fewer teams, which isn't good for the league yet either.

Letting in ownership that aren't financially sound leads to CSL 2.0.

Not of us wants that. 

Better less teams with strong ownership than double that with a third folding or dragging the league down 

Edited by Ansem

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Just now, Ansem said:

Letting in ownership that aren't financially sound leads to CSL 2.0.

Not of us wants that. 

Better less teams with strong ownership than double that with a third folding or dragging the league down 

100% agree on all of this.  Which is why if strong potential ownership comes along and doesn't agree on the $9 million value (and I think at this stage that's an extremely aggressive valuation), I wouldn't get hung up on that.  I guess to flip it around: if the the other CPL owners *need* that expansion money , they shouldn't have been allowed to be owners in the first place.

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7 minutes ago, Watchmen said:

100% agree on all of this.  Which is why if strong potential ownership comes along and doesn't agree on the $9 million value (and I think at this stage that's an extremely aggressive valuation), I wouldn't get hung up on that.  I guess to flip it around: if the the other CPL owners *need* that expansion money , they shouldn't have been allowed to be owners in the first place.

I dont think it's simply about CPL owners needing the expansion money but also buying a piece of CSB which is in charge of generating extra revenues through diversification/other means. This is valuable and the MediaPro deal and surely, the response from the corporate sector that seemed to have exceed expectations thus far is valuable.

Ownership trying to get in at a discount is a red flag and to be avoided at all cost. If there's something to learn from MLS, it's that they didn't allow it.

The earlier you get in, the most likely you recoup that money faster. That fee is also a way to establish the seriousness of your involvement in the league and that you won't just cut your losses and bail in tougher times...that's the foundation of business...I believe is called having "skin in the game"

Edited by Ansem

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Just now, Ansem said:

I dont think it's simply about CPL owners needing the expansion money but also buying a piece of CSB which is in charge of generating extra revenues through diversification/other means. This is valuable and the MediaPro deal and surely, the response from the corporate sector that seemed to have exceed expectations thus far is valuable.

Ownership trying to get in at a discount is a red flag and to be avoided at all cost. If there's something to learn from MLS, it's that they didn't allow that when NY Cosmos tried to get in on their terms and at a discount.

They couldn't even get 7 different corporate sponsors for each team's kit and they're giving away Onesoccer subscriptions this year, so how valuable is this corporate sector and MediaPro deal.  Further, yes the other owners have been investing in CSB and the product.  But they probably haven't sunk $9 million each in to it yet, which is what you'd be asking a new owner to do here (even before probable losses during the early years).

I think we're in agreement on the key part: vet potential owners properly.  After that, I wouldn't get too hung up on the expansion fee. 

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...especially if you want to grow as quickly as David Clanachan wants them to, if pro/rel is supposed to be happening by 2026. MLS wanted the Impact in at the launch in 1996 (I remember listening to Dale Barnes interviewing Joey Saputo on the FAN590 at the time explaining why they would not be joining) and it took them until 2012 to finally get them on board kicking a ball in anger. CanPL is looking increasingly like MLS in its approach, if all the stuff about ten year commitments and $9 million expansion fees is accurate, in addition to the way CSB is set up. That's a good thing in many ways, as long as they don't go crazy about it to the extent it scares blue chip investors away.

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9 hours ago, Watchmen said:

I think we're in agreement on the key part: vet potential owners properly.  After that, I wouldn't get too hung up on the expansion fee. 

Total agreeement. It would be a huge mistake to get a great expansion windfall from an investor that isn't on-board with the goals of this CPL project. The damage a bad or short-lived owner could do to the league would out-weigh a few million or more dollars.

Boiling the expansion discussion down to an expansion fee amount misses the point. The league is doing a lot more due diligence than that. The league is looking for partners in their project first and foremost.

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