WCQ: Third Round - Window 1 (September 2-8, 2021)

[Kent]

8 hours ago, youllneverwalkalone said:

We're in second place!

Second or third, either way it's a drop. After the draw we were listed in first place! I can't find the screenshot anymore to prove it, but it's probably buried somewhere deep in the road to Qatar thread.

[Kusch to the Corner]

Mexico winning = great 

Costa Rica and Panama tying = great

USA tying I'm not so happy about. I think they will be pretty motivated against us and I was hoping we could catch them off-guard and get a point on the road

Edit: upon further reflection I'm not liking the Costa Rica Panama result. If Costa Rica is the greater threat, which I believe and Panama is the easier team, then Costa Rica achieving a draw on the road is mission accomplished for them. In hindsight wish Panama would have won

Edited September 3, 2021 by Kusch to the Corner

[canuckgbp]

The other matches basically went in our favour. It is a long campaign, weird things are going to happen. We didn't take care of business in this one and we may need some results on the road which will be difficult but not impossible. We have the quality. 

Jamaica loosing is big though. We can't worry about Mexico securing early qualification. At home against a depleted Jamaican side they are expected to win as with basically all of their home matches. They will most likely finish #1. 

Long and difficult road though within the respective windows it comes at you fast. 

[Kent]

On my ride home from the stadium last night I was flashing back to 2012. In 2012 I was naively moderately optimistic after we dominated Honduras at home, but only got a draw. There were some more grizzled vets that said that result would likely break our backs in the end. Sure enough, we got eliminated and would have gone through if we had eeked out a win that night (and all other results stayed the same).

The other draws from last night seem good, but when you look closer at it, the away teams were the clear favourites in terms of where they are expected to finish in the standings. Most people are picking El Salvador and Panama as the bottom 2 teams, and they are the ones we are tied with in terms of most dropped points at home.

The only thing giving me a glimmer of hope at the moment is that in 2012 it was a 6 game round, this one is 14 games. We may need to overperform in some games, but we will have plenty of chances to do that.

[dyslexic nam]

Different team different cycle.  Don’t get me wrong, I am disappointed that we couldn’t convert one of the penetrating runs we had into their box to get the win (or just to not concede a dumb PK), but I won’t declare defeat yet.  Discouraging Sportsnet graphic aside, we have the weapons to get an away win or two.  Fuck history.  Going to Panama or El Salvador and beating them shouldn’t be some Herculean task.  No idea what will happen against the States - I am not overly optimistic.  But as long as we get 3 pts off ES, we are still in this thing - even if there is a bit of an uphill climb.  

[WestHamCanadianinOxford]

9 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

Different team different cycle.  Don’t get me wrong, I am disappointed that we couldn’t convert one of the penetrating runs we had into their box to get the win (or just to not concede a dumb PK), but I won’t declare defeat yet.  Discouraging Sportsnet graphic aside, we have the weapons to get an away win or two.  Fuck history.  Going to Panama or El Salvador and beating them shouldn’t be some Herculean task.  No idea what will happen against the States - I am not overly optimistic.  But as long as we get 3 pts off ES, we are still in this thing - even if there is a bit of an uphill climb.  

At least, I think we approach the US game knowing what we need to do.  Start calmer, stay much tighter, and hit them with our weapons on the break. 

[archer21]

I watched a decent amount of the 2nd half of the Panama-Costa Rica game, and Panama absolutely dominated. Shots were 18-4. I know Panama were at home, but they shouldn’t be able to dominate that much. I honestly think Costa Rica is just not good any more. 

[BigMo]

1 hour ago, Kent said:

On my ride home from the stadium last night I was flashing back to 2012. In 2012 I was naively moderately optimistic after we dominated Honduras at home, but only got a draw. There were some more grizzled vets that said that result would likely break our backs in the end. Sure enough, we got eliminated and would have gone through if we had eeked out a win that night (and all other results stayed the same).

The other draws from last night seem good, but when you look closer at it, the away teams were the clear favourites in terms of where they are expected to finish in the standings. Most people are picking El Salvador and Panama as the bottom 2 teams, and they are the ones we are tied with in terms of most dropped points at home.

The only thing giving me a glimmer of hope at the moment is that in 2012 it was a 6 game round, this one is 14 games. We may need to overperform in some games, but we will have plenty of chances to do that.

Important distinction in your last paragraph, that's often lost when people make comparisons to previous cycles. Margin of error may be (slightly) wider, given the number of games we will play. 

I will say anything less than 3 points against ES next week is cause for panic IMO. 

[TOcanadafan]

3 hours ago, dyslexic nam said:

Different team different cycle.  Don’t get me wrong, I am disappointed that we couldn’t convert one of the penetrating runs we had into their box to get the win (or just to not concede a dumb PK), but I won’t declare defeat yet.  Discouraging Sportsnet graphic aside, we have the weapons to get an away win or two.  Fuck history.  Going to Panama or El Salvador and beating them shouldn’t be some Herculean task.  No idea what will happen against the States - I am not overly optimistic.  But as long as we get 3 pts off ES, we are still in this thing - even if there is a bit of an uphill climb.  

I brought a couple of friends to the game who are huge European soccer fans but don’t follow our National team closely…  they were astounded with how much better our individuals were (physically/ technically) than the Hondurans (with the exception of Miller).  Honduras had flurries of attack, but they weren’t going to score unless they drew a penalty which we gifted to them unfortunately.  If we figure out how to better link the midfield to the attack (and even line ourselves up better), and finish our chances, I’m  sure we will be able to get a few wins away, including in Honduras.

[JohnnyFranchise]

my biggest reason for optimism from last night is that the US looked like sh*t.

and i'm not talking big-game jitters sh*t like our boys in the first half, i'm talking overrated team sh*t.

i see no reason why we shouldn't think that we can get a result on sunday.

[youllneverwalkalone]

19 minutes ago, TOcanadafan said:

I brought a couple of friends to the game who are huge European soccer fans but don’t follow our National team closely…  they were astounded with how much better our individuals were (physically/ technically) than the Hondurans (with the exception of Miller).  Honduras had flurries of attack, but they weren’t going to score unless they drew a penalty which we gifted to them unfortunately.  If we figure out how to better link the midfield to the attack (and even line ourselves up better), and finish our chances, I’m  sure we will be able to get a few wins away, including in Honduras.

Had the same experience with my brother-in-law. Always good to listen to a neutral's perspective.

[Floortom]

4 minutes ago, JohnnyFranchise said:

my biggest reason for optimism from last night is that the US looked like sh*t.

and i'm not talking big-game jitters sh*t like our boys in the first half, i'm talking overrated team sh*t.

i see no reason why we shouldn't think that we can get a result on sunday.

Playing in Central America is always tough. Agreed they didn’t have a strong performance but I’m amazed at how many posters here are just assuming we’re going to get walk into to San Salvador and and grab three points. In the end, I do not think the US nor Costa Rica will be particularly upset about earning their draws last night no matter how bad they looked

Guaranteed they will be a very different squad at home on Sunday 

[JohnnyFranchise]

1 minute ago, Floortom said:

Playing in Central America is always tough. Agreed they didn’t have a strong performance but I’m amazed at how many posters here are just assuming we’re going to get walk into to San Salvador and and grab three points. In the end, I do not think the US nor Costa Rica will be particularly upset about earning their draws last night no matter how bad they looked

Guaranteed they will be a very different squad at home on Sunday 

depends on what time of day they play the game for me. middle of the afternoon heat and humidity would make it very difficult indeed, a night game and i like our chances much better.

[Floortom]

1 minute ago, JohnnyFranchise said:

depends on what time of day they play the game for me. middle of the afternoon heat and humidity would make it very difficult indeed, a night game and i like our chances much better.

All octagonal matches are at night - which will be great for our Honduras match. Nighttime in January is very different than our usual daytime in Summer outings there.

[JohnnyFranchise]

1 minute ago, Floortom said:

All octagonal matches are at night - which will be great for our Honduras match. Nighttime in January is very different than our usual daytime in Summer outings there.

i didn't know that was the rule, thought it was just a coincidence last night. that IS huge for us.

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

7 minutes ago, JohnnyFranchise said:

depends on what time of day they play the game for me. middle of the afternoon heat and humidity would make it very difficult indeed, a night game and i like our chances much better.

Honduras are the ones who do that, not El Salvador.

[theaub]

Catching up on the other matches...wtf are those Costa Rica kits?

Costa Rica has to be thrilled with the draw considering they got played off the park.  

 

[red card]

This is what it is about.

During the Gold Cup, I thought the Salvadoran anthem is quite under rated. OneSoccer missed it since post match show was on and replay also passes over it.

 

[Approve My Account Pls]

Couldn't figure out how to embed the tweet - sorry guys still a newbie

But would be awesome to get a big one of those Ted Lasso's Believe signs in the south end, unreal sign by whoever made that 👏🏼👏🏼

[mrstepp817]

Costa Rica's an old team and aging quickly...they'll be a problem at home because they are by far the toughest place to play in Central America..but on the road they'll be vulnerable...Panama has to be kicking themselves for dropping points at home

That being said ANY points in Central America are valuable...a lot of US folks are disappointed with the tie...but those are people who just dont understand how tough it is to go down there and play in those environments in WCQ...especially when you are playing with a bunch of folks who are in their first go-round....

[jtpc]

Every team has at least 1 player who received a yellow card last night. Mexico, USA, and Honduras have 2 players on yellows.

Edited September 3, 2021 by jtpc

[TOcanadafan]

28 minutes ago, mrstepp817 said:

Costa Rica's an old team and aging quickly...they'll be a problem at home because they are by far the toughest place to play in Central America..but on the road they'll be vulnerable...Panama has to be kicking themselves for dropping points at home

That being said ANY points in Central America are valuable...a lot of US folks are disappointed with the tie...but those are people who just dont understand how tough it is to go down there and play in those environments in WCQ...especially when you are playing with a bunch of folks who are in their first go-round....

Canada will need to be able win on the road to qualify…. case closed.  So if people think we can’t go into to 1 or realistically 2 of these road games and win, then they should think right now that we’re not qualifying. 

[mrstepp817]

53 minutes ago, TOcanadafan said:

Canada will need to be able win on the road to qualify…. case closed.  So if people think we can’t go into to 1 or realistically 2 of these road games and win, then they should think right now that we’re not qualifying. 

Dropping points at home almost certainly means Canada needs to get three on the road somewhere to offset the loss of home points...

[JamboAl]

I think we will pick up some points on the road; it would be hard not to pick any from 7 games.  But in retrospect, 1-0 away at Haiti was way better than people realize.  Imagine if there were fans in the stadium??

[dyslexic nam]

19 minutes ago, JamboAl said:

I think we will pick up some points on the road; it would be hard not to pick any from 7 games.  But in retrospect, 1-0 away at Haiti was way better than people realize.  Imagine if there were fans in the stadium??

One of the benefits of this window is that we have 7 away games to try and deal with the away game hostilities.   By the time March rolls around and we are in Costa Rica (possibly playing one of the weaker teams that could even be mathematically eliminated by that time) we may be able to get a win.   I know it is hard to win away but we have seven kicks at that particular can.  I think it is unlikely that we don’t manage it at least once.