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archer21

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Everything posted by archer21

  1. Agreed, winning 2 out of window matches won’t do much for them. All 4 of those wins will get them maybe 14 points or something. Assuming we win our matches we’ll still have a healthy lead. And if we don’t win our matches we aren’t catching ES anyways so it doesn’t matter.
  2. This doesn’t make much sense. Playing the 27 and 28th back to back then flying to Thailand? No way.
  3. Can’t imagine this could be true. If it’s a 6200 capacity, concessions/security, etc would be cheaper than at a huge stadium as well. So yeah you’re making less than at a huge stadium but you should still make profit if your costs are lower.
  4. Yeah pretty much. If they get a win and a draw they’ll get about 2 points (assuming 2 wins gets them 7 like they said) though which gets us within 9 points. Would make it so that we could still catch them, especially if we play a couple out of window matches. ES would at least have to play a couple more minnows and have another chance to slip up again.
  5. Obviously 6 for Costa Rica and about 4 for Trinidad. I’m sure Kyle can give more accurate number but he posted a couple pages back that they’d be 4 points when rounded to the nearest integer.
  6. Need them to lose to Panama. Even if they beat the minnow, they’ll lose about 3 points.
  7. Honestly, I think the worse team they play the better chance ES makes the Hex. I don’t think they’re good enough to go 4-0 against teams that would get them 4 points. So say they go 2-1-1, they only gain 1 point (-1 for draw, -6 for loss). The odds of them going 4-0 against a team they’d get 3 points from goes way up, which would get them 12 points and make it damn near impossible for us to come back. Or they could draw one of those matches and get 7 points, still making it very difficult for us.
  8. Guess I missed that part. You’re right, that strategy for ES is definitely the smartest way to go. Didn’t make sense for them to play teams that they’d likely lose points against. On the bright side, if they do lose those matches, they’ll lose more points for it.
  9. If this ends up being the matches and ES plays Costa Rica and Panama, we need to obviously get better results than them. If we do 0.5 games better (e.g. 2 wins vs a win and a draw from ES), we gain 3.6 points. If we do 1 game better (e.g. 2 wins vs a win and a loss from ES) we gain 8.6 points. If we do 1.5 games better (e.g. 2 wins vs a draw and a loss from ES) we gain 13.6 points. If we do 2 games better (2 wins vs 2 losses from ES) we gain 18.6 points. Realistically, anything less than the 8.6 point gain would make it very difficult for us moving forward.
  10. That’s certainly a possibility. Gaining 9 points like I said would still put us within striking distance if they gained 0.5 points. I honestly don’t think ES are very good though. If we’re assuming they’ll lose to Costa Rica, the odds of a loss or draw to Panama would be higher than the odds of a win I’d think.
  11. 2 losses equals -9.5 points, a loss and a draw equals -4.5 points. It’d be huge if we could get 9 points in March. That would put us well ahead of ES lose both and basically dead even if they win and draw. Even 8 points would be a huge positive for us.
  12. I’m growing impatient as well but I won’t criticize until we actually know who we’re scheduling. Tactically, it makes more sense to announce it late anyways so that ES can’t alter their strategy based on what we do. Not much we can do but hope for the best at this point and hold out hope that Herdman and the CSA have a solid plan in place.
  13. Yeah I’d be willing to play any of these teams. I think Albania is a very good matchup where their ranking is maybe higher than their ability. Jamaica would be very good value as a win would be huge against them. Would be risky though with the pace they have on the counter. I still think we have an outside chance of getting to the hex but we’ve put ourselves in a tough position. It’s difficult to even strategize and plan what types of teams to play because we have no idea what El Salvador will do. If they’re gonna play minnows we probably have to schedule aggressively, whereas if they’re gonna play teams that can beat them, we can be a bit more cautious and let them hopefully fall back to us if they lose.
  14. Yes, we’d have to finish ahead of all 3 of them. Just as they’d have to finish ahead of all 3 of us. Doesn’t change the odds at all. Why are we all so damn scared to play good teams? I’d put our team against any of those teams and say we are as good as any of them. Sure, history says we won’t be able to win but historically we’ve been terrible so that’s really not relevant. Our “recent results” are such a small sample size that IMO you can’t take much from them. Our only real bad result recently with an A squad is the loss to Haiti.
  15. If our chances of coming 3rd are 5% then our chances of beating the 4th place team after winning the losers bracket would be ridiculously low as well. There’s no way those teams are that much better than us.
  16. This is basically how I feel about it as well. Sure, your numbers may or may not be accurate but even if they’re off by a little bit, it wouldn’t make up for the difference from 24% to 10%. I don’t think your numbers are that far off either, if anything you were generous to the long route. Assume spots 1&2 are taken (maybe not a safe assumption with USA struggling), we have about 25% chance of finishing 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th. Reduce it to 20% seems fair if you think we aren’t quite as good as the other 4 teams (on paper we are but we haven’t proved it). Our chances surely aren’t 80% in semis and 70% in finals of losers bracket. That would be presumably against Haiti and Panama or Curaçao, both good teams. My point isn’t to rip apart your calculations by the way. I’m just pointing out to people who criticize your way of thinking that if anything, the difference between the odds through the Hex and the odds through the losers bracket is even larger.
  17. I understand we are all worried that it will be very difficult to finish 3rd in the Hex, but the alternative is the get through 2 of Curacao, Panama, and Haiti in semis/finals, THEN playing someone like Jamaica. THEN intercontinental playoffs. We’re gonna have to get by some really good teams no matter what. The HEX leaves more room for error IMO because we can lose a couple matches away from home and still get through. Panama finished 3rd in the Hex in 2018 WCQ with 13 points. We could get that by beating 3 teams at home, 1 on the road, and 1 draw. That’s very achievable.
  18. I don’t think Costa Rica, Jamaica, and Honduras are much better than Haiti, Panama, and Curacao so by that logic, if we didn’t finish top 3 in the Hex (if we made it) something is wrong as well.
  19. The Hex still gives us a way better chance of making it to the World Cup IMO. The fact that there’s a chance to get direct qualification trumps any other argument for me. Not that I think we’ll definitely finish top 3, but there is a chance. And even if we finish 4th, we’d play a weaker team than if we won the loser’s bracket. Then to just lose in the intercontinental playoff. i don’t get the argument that the lower route is better because we won’t finish 3rd anyway, but then say that we have a chance to beat someone like Chile over 2 legs, who would be 2nd best in CONCACAF. I guess if we knew we’d be playing Oceania then I would maybe buy it.
  20. So basically beat 4 teams around our ranking for 20 points between March and June. That’s give us a 6 point lead and make ES have to at least play a couple games, which they’d probably be favoured in but hopefully they’d drop one of them or at least draw. Of course, there’s also the non FIFA windows too where we could hopefully play 3 games again to add points. Margin for error is basically 0 now though.
  21. Does anyone know someone in Canada soccer that they could ask about whether the ES game is for points or not? Surely the CSA would know. Or is there a reporter that everyone could tweet at looking for an answer?
  22. This game against Iceland is absolutely massive for our chances IMO. If we’re only 9 points away, I could see them playing those types of friendlies. If we lose and are back to 14 points away, they’ll probably just stay in hiding I’d think. Or at the most, play someone like Bahamas that they can easily grab a couple insurance points.
  23. They could very easily lose 7 points, which would put us down by 2 if we beat Iceland. Even if they get a loss and a draw, we’d be 7 points back which is very manageable for us to pick up in March with 2 matchups we’d be heavy favourites in.
  24. Any chance you could post the points won/lost in matches for ES against Switzerland/Hungary?
  25. If there are no June rankings and they go off of the most recent rankings in June (April) were totally screwed either way. Can’t imagine this would be the case though.
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