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Everything posted by WestHamCanadianinOxford

  1. Davies continues on the bench against leaky like sieve Augsburg (an ex-West Ham "wonderkid" plays for them sometimes at the back, so I can say that) Hopefully Davies gets some minutes. - Also Hoilett stayed on the bench last night in a 1-1 draw at home.
  2. Not to mention our first. https://int.soccerway.com/matches/2012/03/25/nc-america/olympic-qualifying-concacaf/united-states-u23/canada-u23/1234089/
  3. And then possibly a South American team or at least another half decent one. Even if you are demonstrably the better team, it does not mean you are going to win a playoff, even a two legged-one, every time (Or else Spurs would not have made the Champions League final.) We might be going to the World Cup in 7 years without qualifying by any kind of merit. I will still take that experience, every day of the week. You maximize your chance of getting to the big show and then do your best to show your talent when you are there. For me, the maximum chance is the Hex. You need to be better than 3 of 5 beatable teams (from what I have seen the last few windows) over 10 games. That is better than 4 playoff rounds even if some of the opponents are supposed to be weaker.
  4. If we beat the States, their 2 or 3 friendlies will need a very high difference in ranking. We would be 15-16 points ahead and to get 7-8 points, they would need a 300-ish point difference. That puts them up against Uruguay, Spain or Croatia-type teams.
  5. I have mixed feeling and that definitely is the down side, I agree. On the flip side, there are no garbage games for a while and I care about a whole lot of games during the international window, which from an entertainment standpoint is nice. And for good or bad, we are at a point where one win over the States is not something we can rest on. If we do make the Finals, the Hex is ours to lose, even if we are still slightly behind (ie with a draw against the US). I think. Some great points in the post. If we can get a friendly against Costa Rica, we would be crazy not to, in my opinion. They have little to lose, and we have a lot to gain by beating them.
  6. The US given their size and money should really beat us. They didn't a few days ago. What should happen, often does not; that is what is great about sports. Unfortunately we need to guard against that for next few months. If all goes well, we are going to have a group of winnable but intense games in the Hex next year and beyond, things happen and people will get a chance.
  7. I wholly agree in principle. I just am not sure it applies until June of next year. The boost for the program in playing in a Hex with 4/5 beatable teams would be beyond what any group of friendlies can do. Feels like we don't have the luxury of development without risking what we are developing for, unfortunately.
  8. For good or bad, right now I don't think we have friendlies in the normal sense. The fact that FIFA rankings are used for the Hex and that we are on the edge, points-wise, means every game we play, or don't play, means something. I think until we win the Gold Cup in two summers, that will be the case: FIFA rankings have long memories.
  9. True, here for instance. I think it is/was top 50 but you can always get around that by throwing a lot of money at someone and making them an "exceptionally" paid case.
  10. I agree on the opponent, if there was one. Not sure there are a lot of similar ranked teams available, that would want to play us. Edit : General question following from that: Beyond CONCACAF, anybody know how much FIFA rankings actually matter to teams? England could care less for instance but they are in exceptional territory.
  11. Having a similar conversation on a few threads, for me the risk would be having an emotional let-down coming off the US game, and against a "easy" team (and probably the only ones we could get at this point), that a draw would lose us 3 points and a loss, around 8. But as you say we will see.
  12. I think planning and cancelling, or not cancelling and coming off whatever kind of emotion the US game gives, is a distraction. Are we going face stiffer tests in the future? Yes but gambling with that future to prepare for it might not be the best at this stage. I will say, any which way, we have to make the March friendly window count. (Watching them play, I would think a Costa Rica friendly is a no-brainer and then maybe some glamorous overrated but tough opposition from afar. With all the problems with this format, it does reward you for dreaming big.)
  13. We have a very cohesive squad, I think even the most ardent Herdman holdouts would admit that. The team got amped and did their job and must do that again in Orlando. Putting another less galvanizing game right after, is a recipe for a banana skin for me - a great opportunity "to fall on our face" as you say. The numbers run something like: an easy match that will yield us 2 points for a win, will also give us -3 for a draw and -8 for a loss. If we lose, and the worst but probably likely happens around us, we will be about 16 points behind El Salvador and 7 ish behind Curacao. With only 4 friendly match days left before the deadline. That would mean if El Salvador surprisingly did nothing we would have to win 4 friendlies with teams slightly below us. And Curacao would have the two x25 Nations League finals games, guaranteed. If we draw it will be tight, but we will still have those Nation League games against decent opposition, one probably very winnable and the second will at the very least not cost us anything. The job is only half done, and that, I think, needs to be the focus of the window.
  14. I agree, there are pros and cons either way but.. Because they are in League B, if they win out, they will have nothing but friendlies in the two windows before the deadline. We will have the semi final and final/third place game of this competition, with x25 co-efficients and decent ranked teams. We would still have to schedule well for March and win the games, but I feel like it would be in our hands.
  15. They are worth so much less, and the US game is so important for getting those NL final points opportunities. It is a bit of gamble not scheduling one, we certainly will need it if we lose. But it will be so hard even with it, if we lose (and the States do the expected business again over Cuba), that it is worth focusing on the one game. I think.
  16. Even going practically... Going by the simulator and what people posted other threads we should be 3-4 points ahead of El Salvador and 16-17 points ahead of Curacao in the next rankings. In the next window, El Salvador can get about 10 points for winning both their games and Curacao get about 15 if they beat Costa Rica at home (their only game). If we draw in Orlando, we get 5 points and would be just behind a perfect El Salvador and have 6-7 point lead on Curacao (with them winning). We and Curacao would then have a x25 Nations League semi final and final/third place game planned for us. El Salvador would not. Not a horrible position with good friendly planning in March and winning at least a game in those finals in June. (Losses don't hurt) However a win against the States means a decent to commanding lead over those two, no matter what they do. And if somehow Honduras loses to T&T at home, we would catch them, adding another positional buffer. (They have already qualified for the final of the Nations League and we could face them with the chance to prevent them taking points in one of those games.) The second sounds better to me.
  17. I don't watch a lot of ESPN FC, usually on a the wrong time and I have to go looking. But watching those guys without a lot of context, it felt a bit shock jock-like. Say things to get a reaction rather than be factual.
  18. Enjoying the American woes that are being reported a bit over here but we really have only done half a job, so far. A loss would probably put us behind El Salvador and Curacao in the rankings and barring a Cuban miracle, we would have no more big point games before the deadline. In the words of a voice of my generation "Great kid, don't get cocky."
  19. As with any kind of qualifying this is increasingly complicated, apparently. But one question I now have: is it two more wins or four? - potentially for El Salvador. The two rounds of playoffs are both 2-legged. - If they finished 2nd in their group El Salavador would play a team that won their group in League C in the first round "The four winners of Nations League C will face the four runner-ups of Nations League B, played as two-legged ties in March 2020. The four winners will advance to the second round." (Now what I don't know is whether than draw has yet to be made or teams will be slotted in) So realistically, Barbados, Cayman Islands, Bahamas, Bonaire, Guatemala, or Guadeluope. Guatemala being worth the most, currently - ranked 133rd - and Bonaire and Guadeloupe worth nothing. - If they win, they would face a team from our League A "The four first round winners will face the four third-place teams from Nations League A, played as two-legged ties in June 2020. The four winners will qualify for the 2021 CONCACAF Gold Cup." So likely Cuba, Panama, Bermuda, Martinique, T&T, Costa Rica or Haiti. Costa Rica, I guess being the big worry but they have a game in hand on Haiti and then play them at home in the group. Martinique being another that yields no points. Overall, a whole lot of risk on that path - in addition to the DR loss point drop - even if they get points for both legs of both playoffs. And the good news is they will never face Jamaica. But it does start to show some cracks in a system where rankings and direct qualifications are being used for the same tournament.
  20. They do them after the windows, last one was September 19th, the one before July 25th, the June one was the 14th.
  21. Speaking of Yedlin, I am enjoying the seeping through of even a little bit of our good news over here. Perspective needed for DeAndre Yedlin as Newcastle defender has a shocker for USA https://www.geordiebootboys.com/opinion/perspective-needed-for-deandre-yedlin-as-newcastle-defender-has-a-shocker-for-usa/ Chelsea fans slam Christian Pulisic’s tears for the USA https://www.footballfancast.com/premier-league/chelsea/chelsea-fans-slam-christian-pulisics-tears-for-the-usa
  22. He played it safe against Yedlin. Giving him lots of space, probably smart since the latter is fast but I have never seen him have a consistent final ball.
  23. Yes. They are in the March and June windows. At least according to this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_CONCACAF_Gold_Cup_Qualifiers Edit - More officially here "Gold Cup Qualifiers (4 teams): After Concacaf Nations League group stage play in November 2019, the third-place finishers in League A, the second-place finishers in League B and the first-place finishers in League C will advance to a two-round qualifier, to be played in March and June of 2020." https://concacafnationsleague.com/en/article/concacaf-nations-league-to-serve-as-pathway-for-2021-gold-cup
  24. Thinking that through, they would lose a lot more points in order to finish second, than they would gain wouldn't they? I guess it depends, too much math too quick for me. Teams like Haiti, T&T. or even Costa Rica would be there in the second round of those playoffs. But the first round will be against some very low ranked teams. Edit- Would they get points for both legs?
  25. Thanks, so it means getting at least a draw Orlando will not only give us those points but will means we will be playing two games (3rd place game even if we lose) in June with a x25 co-efficient again and no risk. (Face a Mexico team that does not care, stranger things have happened). El Salvador definitely will not have that and even if they continue to beat the teams in their group, will then only have 4 friendly slots left before the June deadline. (with x10 co-efficient) Curacao has a chance obviously, though their group is still can be lost (Costa Rica just need to hold them away and then beat Haiti by a couple at home, I believe). Whoever comes out looks to be the worst seeded in the Nations League playoffs. But will still have a chance for some big points. We have the best points and goal difference right now for seeding but we have 1 game to Mexico's (probably) and Honduras' (definitely - already qualified ) 2. And our one is harder than any of theirs on paper. Lots of fun permutations. Edit - Including the one TOCanada115 mentioned above that I missed.
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