WCQ: Third Round - Window 2 (October 7-13, 2021)

[El Hombre]

This El Salvador-Mexico game is boring as shit.  Where are the 50 yard runs?  Where are the 4 dribbles in a row?  Where are the touchline scrums that empty the benches?

Garbage.  Pure garbage.  

Can't wait for teams like these to catch up to Canada's quality.

[Scottie]

lol, the commentator in this game defending Salvadoran fans throwing piss bags at players, saying they're water bags 

[king1010]

10 minutes ago, Scottie said:

lol, the commentator in this game defending Salvadoran fans throwing piss bags at players, saying they're water bags 

Thats messed up. Concacaf needs to clean this trash up. 

[canuckgbp]

22 minutes ago, Scottie said:

lol, the commentator in this game defending Salvadoran fans throwing piss bags at players, saying they're water bags 

Met the minimum dilution threshold lol. 

[baulderdash77]

45 minutes ago, jtpc said:

While the point totals are fairly close in spots, the goal differential of the current top 3 compared to the rest is just staggering.

The current top 3 are either +6 or +5. Everyone else is either even or under water. Quite the visual.

Having a final 8 teams instead of 6 increases the sample size and spreads out the effect of a single bad game to an extent.

So far Mexico, US and Canada have shown to be the strongest teams.  When you see the goal differential it tells the story.

The bottom teams all remain dangerous and there’s no pure pushovers though.

[footballfreak]

Quick correction to the comment about the game against Honduras being at the end of the January window. It’s the first game of that window. Same order as window 1. @ HON, vs USA, @ SLV. Very good chance El Salvador are eliminated or very close to eliminated by then. 3 of their next 4 games are on the road before then. JAM (H), PAN(A), USA(A), HON (A). If they’re not completely out, they will be desperate for a win and forced to open up.

Speaking of El Salvador, they shithoused an almost perfect result for us from Mexico: yellow cards to Lozano, Moreno, and Jimenez, and a double yellow to Araujo. Almost perfect because that means Araujo can’t pick up a suspension for our game. Eyes firmly glued on Columbus (edit: Cincinnati) next window.

Edited October 14, 2021 by footballfreak

[sstackho]

Here is how el_noido's Elo-based simulation model looks after Match 6. 

[Yoginess]

53 minutes ago, footballfreak said:

Quick correction to the comment about the game against Honduras being at the end of the January window. It’s the first game of that window. Same order as window 1. @ HON, vs USA, @ SLV. Very good chance El Salvador are eliminated or very close to eliminated by then. 3 of their next 4 games are on the road before then. JAM (H), PAN(A), USA(A), HON (A). If they’re not completely out, they will be desperate for a win and forced to open up.

Speaking of El Salvador, they shithoused an almost perfect result for us from Mexico: yellow cards to Lozano, Moreno, and Jimenez, and a double yellow to Araujo. Almost perfect because that means Araujo can’t pick up a suspension for our game. Eyes firmly glued on Columbus (edit: Cincinnati) next window.

That's proactive by the Mexican players. I'm sure someone has told them about the average daily high temperatures in Edmonton in November, best to be suspended for that match.

[sstackho]

Here is a progression of the Top 3 probabilities throughout the third round after each matchday.  This gives you a good sense as to how the probabilities looked before a ball was kicked and how it has changed based on the results.

Wow, I feel so bad for Honduras.  Like, really, really bad.  Such bad. 

[maplebanana]

Just some random tidbits, looking at the Ocho table:

1) Jamaica: I'm worried they have awakened. They are the only team to play only 2 of their first 6 at home, and both were without fans. And they've gotten their @USA and @MEX matches out of the way. Despite only 5 pts now, they are better than their current 6th place, especially when they get Antonio and Bailey back. 

2) El Salvador: They're done. They are the only team with 4 home matches and still have both their away MEX/USA matches to do. We should be cheering for them to act as spoiler against any team they play because they will not threaten 3rd or 4th.

To borrow from @footballfreak analysis of 'dropped points':

Home: W=0, D=-2, L=-3

Away: W=2, D=0, L=-1

pts/home points/away pts

Mexico   +2/-2/+4

USA.       -1/-2/+1

Canada.  -2/-2/0

Panama.  -4/-4/0

Costa Rica -6/-5/-1

Jamaica -4/-5/+1

El Salvador. -9/-7/-2

Honduras.  -9/-8/-1

 

[footballfreak]

Adjusted home/away standings

 

Edit: Random thought. With so much of our squad depth based in MLS, will the CSA and Herdman be putting to together an extended Camp Poutine in   early January? 13 members of this window’s squad will be months out of season before the January/February window. 

Edited October 14, 2021 by footballfreak

[scullion44]

Borjan right back in next window? What are you guys thinking?

[Floortom]

Costa Rica looked poor last night other than capitalizing on one poor clearance by Steffens early. The above kind of highlights how slow and non threatening they look. We have to beat them in November 

[dyslexic nam]

4 minutes ago, Floortom said:

Costa Rica looked poor last night other than capitalizing on one poor clearance by Steffens early. The above kind of highlights how slow and non threatening they look. We have to beat them in November 

“He was never quick, but these days he is vey slow…”

 

lol

[Approve My Account Pls]

8 hours ago, footballfreak said:

Quick correction to the comment about the game against Honduras being at the end of the January window. It’s the first game of that window. Same order as window 1. @ HON, vs USA, @ SLV. Very good chance El Salvador are eliminated or very close to eliminated by then. 3 of their next 4 games are on the road before then. JAM (H), PAN(A), USA(A), HON (A). If they’re not completely out, they will be desperate for a win and forced to open up.

Speaking of El Salvador, they shithoused an almost perfect result for us from Mexico: yellow cards to Lozano, Moreno, and Jimenez, and a double yellow to Araujo. Almost perfect because that means Araujo can’t pick up a suspension for our game. Eyes firmly glued on Columbus (edit: Cincinnati) next window.

Adding to the list of Mexicans on yellows, I believe that means heading into Cincinnati the total group on yellows is Lozano, Moreno, Jimenez, Gallardo, Corona, and Vega. Unless I'm wrong, Araujo comes back into the fold because his suspension will be for their US away match

[Kent]

This probably belongs more in the Panama game thread, but I haven't caught up to it, and I do plan on doing that. But this morning on Sportscentre it began with something like this (going from memory so not exactly correct). "Big night last night, with 5 Canadian teams starting their NHL seasons, but first..." and they proceeded to show highlights and talk about the Canada vs Panama game for 7 minutes. I know it has been a gradual shift, but I can't help but think back to 15 years ago, 30 years ago, when a Canada game on a slow day in sports would get a 20 second blurb very late in the show. Leading off the show on (essentially) opening night for the NHL, and spending that much time on it. It's amazing. The hype is real!

[Gian-Luca]

Lots of people pencilling in Panama as the main threat being that they are in 4th but I think Jamaica have a real threat to beat them out for that spot. Consider that they have only played two home games (the fewest of any team - though they have only picked up 1 point from them) and have also already played their two toughest opponents on a paper on the road in Mexico and the US, unlike Panama. El Salvador by comparison have played the most home games with 4 out of 6, I expect they may fade further down the stretch. 

[sstackho]

If there is one good thing about this damn pandemic, it's that they did away with the god-awful original qualifying format.  I can't even. 

Original format

On 10 July 2019, CONCACAF announced a restructured qualifying format for the World Cup.^[2] After CONCACAF initially announced in March 2018 that they would use the CONCACAF Ranking Index to determine the seeding of CONCACAF teams for qualifying to international tournaments,^[3] it was determined that FIFA Rankings would be used instead.

• Top-seeded Hexagonal group: The top 6 ranked CONCACAF teams based on the FIFA rankings of June 2020 were to play home-and-away round-robin matches in one single group (often referred to as the "Hexagonal"). The top three teams would have qualified for the World Cup, and the fourth-placed team would have advanced to the CONCACAF play-off round.
• Lower-seeded group stage and knockout stage: The remaining CONCACAF teams (ranked 7 to 35 based on the FIFA rankings of June 2020) were to be divided into eight groups (five groups of four teams and three groups of three teams) to play home-and-away round-robin matches. The winners of each group would have advanced to a knockout stage, consisting of the quarter-finals, semi-finals and final to be played in a two-legged home-and-away series. The winner of the knockout stage would have also advanced to the CONCACAF play-off round.
• Play-off round: The fourth-placed team of the Hexagonal group would have faced the winner of the knockout stage in order to advance to the inter-confederation play-offs.

[El Diego]

2 hours ago, Floortom said:

Costa Rica looked poor last night other than capitalizing on one poor clearance by Steffens early. The above kind of highlights how slow and non threatening they look. We have to beat them in November 

Ruiz v Davies foot race, who you got???

[jonovision]

5 minutes ago, El Diego said:

Ruiz v Davies foot race, who you got???

Davies has to start from the top of his own 18 to make it fair.

[theaub]

With how bad Honduras have looked playing at home in the third matchday so far I'm starting to convince myself we can win there.

e: unfortunately I should probably learn to read a fixture list since we're there on the first match day in the Jan window

Edited October 14, 2021 by theaub

[AvroArrow]

44 minutes ago, sstackho said:

If there is one good thing about this damn pandemic, it's that they did away with the god-awful original qualifying format.  I can't even. 

Original format

On 10 July 2019, CONCACAF announced a restructured qualifying format for the World Cup.^[2] After CONCACAF initially announced in March 2018 that they would use the CONCACAF Ranking Index to determine the seeding of CONCACAF teams for qualifying to international tournaments,^[3] it was determined that FIFA Rankings would be used instead.

• Top-seeded Hexagonal group: The top 6 ranked CONCACAF teams based on the FIFA rankings of June 2020 were to play home-and-away round-robin matches in one single group (often referred to as the "Hexagonal"). The top three teams would have qualified for the World Cup, and the fourth-placed team would have advanced to the CONCACAF play-off round.
• Lower-seeded group stage and knockout stage: The remaining CONCACAF teams (ranked 7 to 35 based on the FIFA rankings of June 2020) were to be divided into eight groups (five groups of four teams and three groups of three teams) to play home-and-away round-robin matches. The winners of each group would have advanced to a knockout stage, consisting of the quarter-finals, semi-finals and final to be played in a two-legged home-and-away series. The winner of the knockout stage would have also advanced to the CONCACAF play-off round.
• Play-off round: The fourth-placed team of the Hexagonal group would have faced the winner of the knockout stage in order to advance to the inter-confederation play-offs.

Yes, the fact that this was the original plan was absolutely bonkers.  This means the BEST we could have done is iner-confed playoff.  Now we are talking about autoqualifying.

[theaub]

Also someone has to start the window three topic now haha

If we do the business against Costa Rica and Honduras beats Panama at home, we would be five points clear of fourth halfway through the octo. 👀

[dyslexic nam]

1 minute ago, theaub said:

Also someone has to start the window three topic now haha

If we do the business against Costa Rica and Honduras beats Panama at home, we would be five points clear of fourth halfway through the octo. 👀

Already done.  Did it this morning.  Still buzzing from last night and couldn’t wait any longer..

[A_Gagne]

11 hours ago, scullion44 said:

Borjan right back in next window? What are you guys thinking?

Well I guess we played Doneil there once.