The Road to Qatar.

[SirBobsaget]

Not sure how accurate this is FIFA Rankings Site, but they have Canada jumping 11 spots to 59 following the GC run. Now 5th ranked in CONCAF leaping over SLV and HON.

09. USA
10. MEX
44. CRC
50. JAM
59. CAN
63. SLV
66. HON
75. PAN
77. CUW

 

[Obinna]

23 hours ago, Stoppage Time said:

Ah! Thanks for that. Which "marginal" Canadians might make a 23 then? A 28 or 30 player roster would allow for almost anybody to be included even as a "get to know the boys" invite.

Going back to this because I am realizing we are already in August and "marginal" players have very little time to make a case...

Liam Millar - The good is that he's already getting into games for Basel. The bad is that since June Tajon has clearly separated himself and Cobeanu has strengthened his case. How important are these next few games for Liam? Does he really need to make an impact to get back into the picture, or does Herdman already know what he's getting one way or another?

Sam Adekugbe - The good is that he's played 6 of a possible 8 national team games he's been available for in 2021. The bad (or unknown) is that he's switched clubs and it remains to be seen what his role is. Does his role with Hatayspor matter at this point in terms of being part of the 23?

Cristian Gutierrez - The good is that he's been one of Vancouver's best players as he's cemented his spot as a starter. The bad is that he hasn't made his debut for Canada yet. Does Herdman include a player like that in the 23 at this stage, over say Adekugbe?

Michael Baldisimo - The good is (like Cristian) he's been starting matches for the Whitecaps. The bad is (also like Cristian) is that he's uncapped. Again, does he really make a 23 man roster at this stage, especially over someone like Liam Fraser who's immersed himself in the midfield rotation?

Liam Fraser - The good is that (as mentioned) he's established himself in the national team, racking up 5 appearances already in 2021. The bad (unknown?) is how things may go once he returns to Columbus. Does that matter given the short turn around and considering how he's been trusted by Herdman at the Gold Cup?

David Wotherspoon - The good is that he was very good in the June qualifiers. The bad is that he skipped out on Gold Cup, allowing Fraser to work his way into the team. Does Herdman go with Wotherspoon's experience and how much does his form over the next few weeks at St. Johnstone matter?

 

[JohnnyFranchise]

4 hours ago, SirBobsaget said:

Not sure how accurate this is FIFA Rankings Site, but they have Canada jumping 11 spots to 59 following the GC run. Now 5th ranked in CONCAF leaping over SLV and HON.

09. USA
10. MEX
44. CRC
50. JAM
59. CAN
63. SLV
66. HON
75. PAN
77. CUW

 

With the team that we ran off the pitch 15 spots ahead of us 🤷‍♂️

[Unnamed Trialist]

1 hour ago, Obinna said:

Going back to this because I am realizing we are already in August and "marginal" players have very little time to make a case...

Liam Millar - The good is that he's already getting into games for Basel. The bad is that since June Tajon has clearly separated himself and Cobeanu has strengthened his case. How important are these next few games for Liam? Does he really need to make an impact to get back into the picture, or does Herdman already know what he's getting one way or another?

Sam Adekugbe - The good is that he's played 6 of a possible 8 national team games he's been available for in 2021. The bad (or unknown) is that he's switched clubs and it remains to be seen what his role is. Does his role with Hatayspor matter at this point in terms of being part of the 23?

Cristian Gutierrez - The good is that he's been one of Vancouver's best players as he's cemented his spot as a starter. The bad is that he hasn't made his debut for Canada yet. Does Herdman include a player like that in the 23 at this stage, over say Adekugbe?

Michael Baldisimo - The good is (like Cristian) he's been starting matches for the Whitecaps. The bad is (also like Cristian) is that he's uncapped. Again, does he really make a 23 man roster at this stage, especially over someone like Liam Fraser who's immersed himself in the midfield rotation?

Liam Fraser - The good is that (as mentioned) he's established himself in the national team, racking up 5 appearances already in 2021. The bad (unknown?) is how things may go once he returns to Columbus. Does that matter given the short turn around and considering how he's been trusted by Herdman at the Gold Cup?

David Wotherspoon - The good is that he was very good in the June qualifiers. The bad is that he skipped out on Gold Cup, allowing Fraser to work his way into the team. Does Herdman go with Wotherspoon's experience and how much does his form over the next few weeks at St. Johnstone matter?

 

Good post. I'd add maybe Cornelius to the list, since he was in the u23 team, and is now in top flight Greece. As we saw, just card problems means you could be fine for CBs on a Thursday and missing cover for the Sunday match. And you always need CB subs, in case one on the field has a yellow and you can't risk another.

Liam Millar: have to keep calling him in. He's vertical and has experience now. Being in a top flight means his league stops for international dates. 

Sam Adekugbe: same deal. Maybe a more defensive back option in a 4-4-2 (which we seem willing to use). Would free up Richie to go forward more, or be a sub for him.

Gutiérrez. If the club play stays solid, he'd be like Sam, another quality outside back. But there is no precedent for him being with us, and no chances to experiment any more. Can't play in a 3-5-2, but could in a more conventional 4-4-2. Longshot.

Of the others I'd say you could call in Wotherspoon for cover in the middle, I am not sure Liam Fraser is better. When we get into winter, with the MLS players losing game fitness, players from other leagues getting minutes might get calls ahead of the MLS guys.

Baldissimo, I don't think he is near, frankly. 

I think the only others, barring surprises in league play or with the youngsters in the next few months, are keepers. We have 4 designated, but always need three to call in with so many games. So who would be the 5th, just in case?

 

 

[Obinna]

22 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Good post. I'd add maybe Cornelius to the list, since he was in the u23 team, and is now in top flight Greece. As we saw, just card problems means you could be fine for CBs on a Thursday and missing cover for the Sunday match. And you always need CB subs, in case one on the field has a yellow and you can't risk another.

Liam Millar: have to keep calling him in. He's vertical and has experience now. Being in a top flight means his league stops for international dates. 

Sam Adekugbe: same deal. Maybe a more defensive back option in a 4-4-2 (which we seem willing to use). Would free up Richie to go forward more, or be a sub for him.

Gutiérrez. If the club play stays solid, he'd be like Sam, another quality outside back. But there is no precedent for him being with us, and no chances to experiment any more. Can't play in a 3-5-2, but could in a more conventional 4-4-2. Longshot.

Of the others I'd say you could call in Wotherspoon for cover in the middle, I am not sure Liam Fraser is better. When we get into winter, with the MLS players losing game fitness, players from other leagues getting minutes might get calls ahead of the MLS guys.

Baldissimo, I don't think he is near, frankly. 

I think the only others, barring surprises in league play or with the youngsters in the next few months, are keepers. We have 4 designated, but always need three to call in with so many games. So who would be the 5th, just in case?

 

 

I agree with those takes. Good point on Cornelius and the need for CB. It is kind of too bad he's a left foot, because we seem more shallow in terms of right-footed center backs.

I wonder if Herdman will try and convert ZBG in the same way he did with Johnston?

I have said it before, but I will say it again: Henry is not a great solution for RCB. 

If we lose Johnston our back 3 is hampered. Maybe we invest in Waterman, Singh or Sturing to be a backup over Henry, but none of these guys are a high enough level at the moment.

Brault-Guillard can fill in at wing back if needed, or full back in a back 4, so we may as well invest in versitile players is what I am thinking.

[BearcatSA]

Based on Baldi's recent club form, no (and I like the kid).  Plus, with the arrival of Gauld and impending arrival of Vite to the Caps midfield, how much will he be playing?  Probably much less than the club captain, Teibert (does he get called up, then?).

Guttierez?  I like his work in retaining possession under pressure in his own end, plus interceptions, and his set play service (this team can't underrate that) but it looks like he's battling Adekugbe for a spot (unless Davies is out longer term, heaven forbid).

Fraser?  The Canadian Michael Carrick is a Herdman fav but I'm not as convinced of his defensive play.  His is a place that could be upgraded by a bigger engined up and comer, imo.

 

Edited August 4, 2021 by BearcatSA

[jtpc]

Like everyone else, I'd love a decisive, take no prisoners win over Honduras to start the Octagonal. 💪

Something I'm keeping in the back of my mind about Honduras is I think there's a very good chance they take points off Mexico at the end of the Octagonal. Honduras (unfortunately) gets Mexico in March on the 2nd last matchday, and by that time, Mexico will be home and dry. It wouldn't surprise me if Mexico rolled over for Honduras, as they've done in the past for them:

- Final matchday of the 2018 WCQ group stage, Honduras draws Mexico 0-0. Guess who advances to the Hex by 1 point? (Yes, we could have helped ourselves by defeating El Salvador away, but that doesn't serve my point-making purposes.) 😂

- Final matchday of the 2018 Hex, Mexico loses their only game of the Hex to Honduras. Guess who gets the intercontinental playoff spot by 1 point? (Yes, the US could have defeated Trinidad and Tobago, but see above.)

Who knows where Honduras will be in the standings by March, but the CONCACAF cynic in me assumes they're probably going to get a gift on the second last matchday. It's something out of our control, but there could be an unexpected 1 point (or even 3 points) that they pick up late.

Edited August 4, 2021 by jtpc

[narduch]

We have to win both against El Salvador and Honduras in the September window.

 

 

[narduch]

12 minutes ago, narduch said:

We have to win both against El Salvador and Honduras in the September window.

 

 

I feel like I'm channeling my inner TGAA here. But I can't stress this enough. 

Anything less will be an uphill battle to qualify 

[jtpc]

Love it!

Let's go CanMNT! 🙌 😀 💪

 

Edited August 4, 2021 by jtpc

[CanMNT Memes]

https://www.instagram.com/p/CSKfXhwriID/

 

[An Observer]

22 hours ago, jtpc said:

Love it!

Let's go CanMNT! 🙌 😀 💪

 

Tbh, I don’t think he is going out on the limb with this ranking. I suspect most independent observers would have the same thing now.  Possible some with Mexico and US switched and with us and Jamaica switched as well. But it’s not like he had El Salvador as number 3 or something 

[Unnamed Trialist]

On 8/4/2021 at 1:45 AM, narduch said:

We have to win both against El Salvador and Honduras in the September window.

I tend to agree that they are key matches as well, and the US too. That first away match in Nashville is perfect for us to take points off them, as they are in the middle of tough away trips to Central America.

We end the qualifiers with 4/6 away and that will be hard to try to make up ground. 

But I'd accept 4 points in those three matches as a bare minimum. 5 would be good as well. As long as you are taking points away from rivals, even drawing, they are not getting ahead too far. 

I said earlier, I think we need 22-23 points to qualify for sure, from 14 games. That means 6 wins, 4 draws. We still might make it with 20, ending 5-5-4. You can't have a losing record and you can't lose more than 5 don't think. No more than 5 losses. You can accept 2 vs Mexico, then some away losses with the tight schedule. 

Edited August 5, 2021 by Unnamed Trialist

[TOCanada115]

9 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

I tend to agree that they are key matches as well, and the US too. That first away match in Nashville is perfect for us to take points off them, as they are in the middle of tough away trips to Central America.

We end the qualifiers with 4/6 away and that will be hard to try to make up ground. 

But I'd accept 4 points in those three matches as a bare minimum. 5 would be good as well. As long as you are taking points away from rivals, even drawing, they are not getting ahead too far. 

I said earlier, I think we need 22-23 points to qualify for sure, from 14 games. That means 6 wins, 4 draws. We still might make it with 20, ending 5-5-4. You can't have a losing record and you can't lose more than 5 don't think. No more than 5 losses. You can accept 2 vs Mexico, then some away losses with the tight schedule. 

Gotta win your home games. Only teams I’ll accept losing points at home are the US, and Mexico. And to be honest, the ladder doesn’t scare me as much as it use to. 
 

5 wins out of 7 is 15 points. Leaves us needing 8 points on the road to probably qualify. 

[PegCityCam]

22 minutes ago, TOCanada115 said:

Gotta win your home games. Only teams I’ll accept losing points at home are the US, and Mexico. And to be honest, the ladder doesn’t scare me as much as it use to. 
 

5 wins out of 7 is 15 points. Leaves us needing 8 points on the road to probably qualify. 

Got some roofing to do today and the ladder has always given me that little tingle in my toes...I doubt I'll ever get over it. 😉 Sorry everyone, the elementary teacher in me couldn't let it go😐😒

Edited August 5, 2021 by PegCityCam

[narduch]

 

[dyslexic nam]

1 hour ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

I tend to agree that they are key matches as well, and the US too. That first away match in Nashville is perfect for us to take points off them, as they are in the middle of tough away trips to Central America.

We end the qualifiers with 4/6 away and that will be hard to try to make up ground. 

But I'd accept 4 points in those three matches as a bare minimum. 5 would be good as well. As long as you are taking points away from rivals, even drawing, they are not getting ahead too far. 

I said earlier, I think we need 22-23 points to qualify for sure, from 14 games. That means 6 wins, 4 draws. We still might make it with 20, ending 5-5-4. You can't have a losing record and you can't lose more than 5 don't think. No more than 5 losses. You can accept 2 vs Mexico, then some away losses with the tight schedule. 

Anything less than 6 points in September will put us in a hole to start.  Ideally, we get 7 (well, 9, but being realistic) but I think we need to make sure that we at least don’t give away home points to our direct competitors for spots 3 and 4.  Dropping home points to Honduras would be a pretty negative outcome.  

[BearcatSA]

19 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

Dropping home points to Honduras would be a pretty negative outcome.  

Dropping all the points in the first match, at home, would crash this forum.

[Obinna]

Don't get me wrong, losing to Honduras would put us in a hole for sure, but it's not necessarily the death sentence some are making it out to be. Would any of you put it past this group to win down in Honduras? 

Mexico split points with Honduras last cycle, for what it's worth. So did Costa Rica. Both qualified for the World Cup. 

[SpursFlu]

Excited for everyone in Toronto to be able to get out a support the team and at this point I just want this show on the road. Hopefully full support is allowed because the team deserves that kinda environment.

I'm not trying to be over confident but I see 9pts from those 3 home games. 7 pts should be the minimum expectation

[dyslexic nam]

8 minutes ago, Obinna said:

Don't get me wrong, losing to Honduras would put us in a hole for sure, but it's not necessarily the death sentence some are making it out to be. Would any of you put it past this group to win down in Honduras? 

Mexico split points with Honduras last cycle, for what it's worth. So did Costa Rica. Both qualified for the World Cup. 

I don’t think it is a death sentence but. I think most here would consider it risky going into latter windows needing to do things like get points away in Honduras.  I know this is a different team, but our track record isn’t great.  

[SpursFlu]

Here are my expectations 

Mexico H/1   A/0

USA H/1   A/1

Jamaica H/3   A/1

Costa Rica H/3   A/1

Honduras H/3   A/1

El Salvador H/3   A/3

Panama H/3   A/3

Obviously results will go one way or another but each game individually i would come away happy with those results. That would safely put us in 2nd or 3rd

 

[BearcatSA]

9 minutes ago, Obinna said:

Don't get me wrong, losing to Honduras would put us in a hole for sure, but it's not necessarily the death sentence some are making it out to be. Would any of you put it past this group to win down in 

I definitely agree, but when Floro's team failed to take all three points against a far less than full strength and very beatable  El Salvador on the road, right after defeating Honduras at BC Place, there were several regular posters on here saying that was it and we were cooked.  Considering the hype train right now, this place would go bananas if we lost our first match at home! 

There are 13 matches after the first one, so failure shouldn't be fatal but merely a temporary setback.  And if we play to our potential or very close to it, we should be getting all the points in our home opener.

[narduch]

16 minutes ago, BearcatSA said:

I definitely agree, but when Floro's team failed to take all three points against a far less than full strength and very beatable  El Salvador on the road, right after defeating Honduras at BC Place, there were several regular posters on here saying that was it and we were cooked.  

And they were right

[Obinna]

1 minute ago, BearcatSA said:

There are 13 matches after the first one, so failure shouldn't be fatal but merely a temporary setback. 

Exactly what I feel. 

17 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

I don’t think it is a death sentence but. I think most here would consider it risky going into latter windows needing to do things like get points away in Honduras.  I know this is a different team, but our track record isn’t great.  

I get it. Needing a win there is risky. We simply don't win there, etc.

Here's my view: Doesn't matter if we win at home and lose away, or vice versa - a split is a split. 

Is a split against Honduras adequate? Probably.