The Importance of Alphonso Davies

[SthMelbRed]

https://torontosun.com/sports/soccer/alphonso-davies-named-postmedias-male-athlete-of-the-year

[Stryker911]

11 hours ago, Ansem said:

 

If the movie "Goal!" Taught me anything then all those guys on the u23 team already hate him.

[Keegan]

22 minutes ago, SthMelbRed said:

https://torontosun.com/sports/soccer/alphonso-davies-named-postmedias-male-athlete-of-the-year

The trifecta of Canadian soccer journalism: try to give Atiba the respect he deserves but call him a striker, talk about Davies being a refugee and Herdman quotes! 

[BearcatSA]

2 hours ago, Keegan said:

The trifecta of Canadian soccer journalism: try to give Atiba the respect he deserves but call him a striker, talk about Davies being a refugee and Herdman quotes! 

That's top notch journalism there from the Whitecaps' beat writer!

[masster]

2 hours ago, BearcatSA said:

That's top notch journalism there from the Whitecaps' beat writer!

Also calls him the youngest player in MLS history, which is incorrect.

[Obinna]

5 hours ago, Keegan said:

The trifecta of Canadian soccer journalism: try to give Atiba the respect he deserves but call him a striker, talk about Davies being a refugee and Herdman quotes! 

I would have also accepted: Holy Trinity

The father (Atiba-ignorance), Son (Alphonso-refugee obsession) and Holy Spirit (Herdman). ?

[Obinna]

Pretty cool article on Davies

https://www.prosoccerusa.com/in-depth/alphonso-davies-what-can-he-add-to-bayerns-squad/

[jpg75]

1 hour ago, Obinna said:

Pretty cool article on Davies

https://www.prosoccerusa.com/in-depth/alphonso-davies-what-can-he-add-to-bayerns-squad/

“Davies is a very talented player but his development has been slower than expected. I hope for him that he will improve at Bayern,” Seidel said when asked about Davies’ development. 

Seidel points to a graphic that the company develops for every player in the system. “When he was 16, we projected him to become a top 20 player, it was the high point of his career. Right now we see him as a top 1000 player. That is still good but not exceptional,” Seidel said. The Goalimpact creator, however, also added. “He can, of course, make up for it, if his development once again speeds up. His transfer to Bayern could help.” ....

....The Whitecaps have come off a poor season and head coach Carl Robinson had at times played Davies out of position. As Seidel explained the position and the overall performance of the squad does not come into account when he collects the data. But looking at the graph a significant dip is apparent right around the time when Robinson played Davies out of position as a left-back.

Further evidence the Whitecaps hate Canada....

Edited December 29, 2018 by jpg75

[Obinna]

1 hour ago, jpg75 said:

“Davies is a very talented player but his development has been slower than expected. I hope for him that he will improve at Bayern,” Seidel said when asked about Davies’ development. 

Seidel points to a graphic that the company develops for every player in the system. “When he was 16, we projected him to become a top 20 player, it was the high point of his career. Right now we see him as a top 1000 player. That is still good but not exceptional,” Seidel said. The Goalimpact creator, however, also added. “He can, of course, make up for it, if his development once again speeds up. His transfer to Bayern could help.” ....

....The Whitecaps have come off a poor season and head coach Carl Robinson had at times played Davies out of position. As Seidel explained the position and the overall performance of the squad does not come into account when he collects the data. But looking at the graph a significant dip is apparent right around the time when Robinson played Davies out of position as a left-back.

Further evidence the Whitecaps hate Canada....

At least the good news is that change in his projection from a top 20 player at 16 to a top 1000 player at current was attributed to being played out of position and not some other sort of more natural plateau in his development.

Or put another way, I expect Davies to indeed make up that ground as he is inevitably played in his rightful spot on the field. And aside from that, the environment at Bayern should enhance his development further, of course.

As an aside, Sancho at Dortmund is projected as a top 500 player.

Edited December 29, 2018 by Obinna

[C2SKI]

Davies’ progression year after year has been staggering. He was miles better this year than last. They make it sound like he needs to get back on track.

Projected to become a top 20 player in the world after 300 minutes of play. Where’s the value in that?

Edited December 29, 2018 by C2SKI

[SpursFlu]

What a load of nonsense

[Jith12]

On 12/28/2018 at 9:53 AM, Stryker911 said:

If the movie "Goal!" Taught me anything then all those guys on the u23 team already hate him.

Funny story about that movie: Tomasz Radzinski's likeness makes a short cameo appearance when the main character's team plays Everton. I took a picture when I watched it not too long ago. I will try to find it and post it.

Edit: Here it is

Edited December 29, 2018 by Jith12

[Keegan]

16 minutes ago, Jith12 said:

Funny story about that movie: Tomasz Radzinski's likeness makes a short cameo appearance when the main character's team plays Everton. I took a picture when I watched it not too long ago. I will try to find it and post it.

Edit: Here it is

Also David Edgar makes an appearance on the team sheet for the Newcastle reserves.

[youllneverwalkalone]

Odd that Bayern would spend $30m on a top 1000 player. If Bayern is a top 10 world club, you'd think many of their players would be in the top 200 -particularly the ones they spend money on.

[Obinna]

23 minutes ago, youllneverwalkalone said:

Odd that Bayern would spend $30m on a top 1000 player. If Bayern is a top 10 world club, you'd think many of their players would be in the top 200 -particularly the ones they spend money on.

I think I can help clear this up for you:

“We average the impact of all games of a player’s career for all clubs, competitions and seasons in relation to all other players in our database"

 

"The system also takes into account age. A 21-year-old player, for example, is calculated to play, on average, worse than a 26-year-old, an age when many players reach their peak."

"When Biermann wrote his book, Seidel pointed out that Alphonso Davies was the highest ranked player in the system with numbers that ranked him alongside Cristiano Ronaldo."

Thus, considering Davies had an immediate impact at 16 years old, in a good league, his projection was destined to slip as he played more games and his sample size grew. He would literially have needed to score 8 goals and 11 assists in his debut season AND transfer to Bayern at the end of 2016 AND become Bayern's best attacker at 18 years old in order to retain that top statistical ranking ahead of Christiano Ronaldo - and I do emphasize "statistical". Even that may have not been enough....

At any rate, Davies being projected to be a top 1000 player only accounts for his on field performance and doesn't account for the fact that Bayern are grooming him right now. Once he plays a role at Bayern this season, the level of the Bundesliga alone will boost his projection:

"This rating is adjusted by teammate’s values and the opposition strength"

 

 

[SpursFlu]

Oh.. now that you put it that way it makes sense

[Bison44]

Based on statistical analysis of the handful of USL games I decree he is on par with 16 year old ronaldo, who had also only played a handful of games with second div.  What a load of shit!  These spread sheet guys think that the whole world can be explained with an algorithim.  It seemed like we were seeing some new skill, a new move almost every week from Davies.  How does that compute?? 

[Obinna]

6 hours ago, Bison44 said:

Based on statistical analysis of the handful of USL games I decree he is on par with 16 year old ronaldo, who had also only played a handful of games with second div.  What a load of shit!  These spread sheet guys think that the whole world can be explained with an algorithim.  It seemed like we were seeing some new skill, a new move almost every week from Davies.  How does that compute?? 

You can't compare Davies with 16 year old Ronaldo. When Ronaldo was 16, I don't even think Alphonso was born, let alone a professional footballer.?

The algorithm was built to compare footballers at the same instance in time.

Point taken about people trying to explain the world with algorithms. It's far from perfect, but it is interesting. It just shouldn't be used on it's own to explain everything. You gotta factor in a little common sense as well, right?

And to be fair, they kinda address that:

"In Biermann’s book “Matchplan,” the company’s founder Jörg Seidel compares his statistics to those of a handicap in golf or the Elo rating system in chess. To put it in Biermann’s words: “Seidel doesn’t suggest that Thomas Müller is a better player than Karim Benzema when the former scores 195 and the later 190. He only suggests that the former is a more valuable player for his team than the later."

[Grizzly]

As others have said the methodology is not very convincing. However, to put it in perspective, to be a top 20 player would mean he would become the best player on Bayern if they maintain their position as a top team. That is certainly possible and what we hope for but even just being a solid starter for Bayern would be a good outcome which would probably put him in the top 200. And being a solid starter on a mid table Bundesliga team would put him top 1000 which is still a very high level of player. 

[C2SKI]

 

6 hours ago, Obinna said:

It's far from perfect, but it is interesting.

For me, it might be interesting if the analysis was made with sufficient, relevant, and comparable data but this article lacked most of that. Conclusions shouldn’t ever be drawn with such limited numbers 

[Unnamed Trialist]

6 hours ago, Grizzly said:

As others have said the methodology is not very convincing. However, to put it in perspective, to be a top 20 player would mean he would become the best player on Bayern if they maintain their position as a top team. That is certainly possible and what we hope for but even just being a solid starter for Bayern would be a good outcome which would probably put him in the top 200. And being a solid starter on a mid table Bundesliga team would put him top 1000 which is still a very high level of player. 

It's like saying some 650 players participate in the world cup.  We know not all are top 1000 players since all of Holland or Italy starters are superior to anyone on Iceland. ...but still.

For Canada if we had 3 or 4 top 1000 players and no serious gaps after that we'd be set to compete for a WC appearance. 

[Norrin Radd]

5 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

For Canada if we had 3 or 4 top 1000 players and no serious gaps after that we'd be set to compete for a WC appearance.

I think that's going to be the key. Right now we are lacking adequate depth at several positions (CB, RB). A handful of star players won't get us to the WC unless we can field a solid lineup to support them.

[MM3/MM2/MM]

Does Bayern have any friendlies scheduled before they resume league play?

[Jith12]

26 minutes ago, MM3/MM2/MM said:

Does Bayern have any friendlies scheduled before they resume league play?

They will have a training camp in Qatar from the 4th to the 5th and will compete in the Telekom Cup on the 13th.

[BrennanFan]

On 12/29/2018 at 1:19 AM, jpg75 said:

“Davies is a very talented player but his development has been slower than expected. I hope for him that he will improve at Bayern,” Seidel said when asked about Davies’ development. 

Seidel points to a graphic that the company develops for every player in the system. “When he was 16, we projected him to become a top 20 player, it was the high point of his career. Right now we see him as a top 1000 player. That is still good but not exceptional,” Seidel said. The Goalimpact creator, however, also added. “He can, of course, make up for it, if his development once again speeds up. His transfer to Bayern could help.” ....

This is fine.  I think most of us can accept that Davies would be further along in his development if he had gone to an established European Academy/Club at 16 or 17 like deGuzman, Pulisic etc. 

Davies does have some catching up to do at Bayern.  In his favour is that he is a ridiculous athlete so hopefully his speed and strength will make up for any short term deficiencies in his game.