The Importance of Alphonso Davies

[CanadianSoccerFan]

56 minutes ago, maplebanana said:

Yup. Ever since they changed the way the rankings were calculated, no home/away, goal differential, or confederation weighting considerations anymore. The rankings are kind of messed up. If San Marino goes to Wembley and beats England 5-0 in WCQ, they would get 24.2 pts which would take their ranking from #210 (dead last) to #207, solidly behind Turks and Caicos at #206. If they win the home leg again against England 10-0 (or 1-0), they would vault all the way to #204. 

 

FIFA's real reason for change was that teams like Wales, Romania, and Switzerland figured out the old math could be gamed to get better seeding.  That led to teams like Italy dropping into lower pots and subsequently missing the World Cup.  FIFA's goal was a system that entrenches the norm.

I read a dissection of the new ranking math a few years ago and that opened my eyes.  The teams are essentially anchored in their positions when the ranking math changed and it is nearly impossible to make a substantial move up or down.  10 years from now, the vast majority of teams will have barely moved from their present ranking positions.  Teams like Jamaica were lucky with timing.  They made the Gold Cup final 4 years ago beating Mexico right before the math changed.  

[Kent]

41 minutes ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

 

FIFA's real reason for change was that teams like Wales, Romania, and Switzerland figured out the old math could be gamed to get better seeding.  That led to teams like Italy dropping into lower pots and subsequently missing the World Cup.  FIFA's goal was a system that entrenches the norm.

I read a dissection of the new ranking math a few years ago and that opened my eyes.  The teams are essentially anchored in their positions when the ranking math changed and it is nearly impossible to make a substantial move up or down.  10 years from now, the vast majority of teams will have barely moved from their present ranking positions.  Teams like Jamaica were lucky with timing.  They made the Gold Cup final 4 years ago beating Mexico right before the math changed.  

To your point, in 2018, before the formula was changed, Canada went from 94 in January to 79 in June. The only thing Canada did in that time span was beat New Zealand 1-0 in a friendly.

Since then with the formula change in July/August 2018, Canada has gone from 79th to 70th with the Nations League qualifying (4-0-0 including a win against a non-FIFA team), Nations League proper (3-0-1, including a win and loss to USA), Gold Cup (2-0-2 including a win against a non-FIFA team, advanced out of a group with Mexico, lost quarter finals), and World Cup Qualifying results (2-0-0 because it is not counting the June matches yet).

The new system definitely reduces the wild seemingly random swings. You can no longer gain or lose points without playing any games, which is good I think. Hopefully Canada can make a deep run in the Gold Cup and the Oct and we can see if that does much for their ranking or not.

[CanadianSoccerFan]

6 minutes ago, Kent said:

To your point, in 2018, before the formula was changed, Canada went from 94 in January to 79 in June. The only thing Canada did in that time span was beat New Zealand 1-0 in a friendly.

Since then with the formula change in July/August 2018, Canada has gone from 79th to 70th with the Nations League qualifying (4-0-0 including a win against a non-FIFA team), Nations League proper (3-0-1, including a win and loss to USA), Gold Cup (2-0-2 including a win against a non-FIFA team, advanced out of a group with Mexico, lost quarter finals), and World Cup Qualifying results (2-0-0 because it is not counting the June matches yet).

The new system definitely reduces the wild seemingly random swings. You can no longer gain or lose points without playing any games, which is good I think. Hopefully Canada can make a deep run in the Gold Cup and the Oct and we can see if that does much for their ranking or not.

I'd be fascinated to know what our current ranking would be if the math never changed.

[Kent]

9 minutes ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

I'd be fascinated to know what our current ranking would be if the math never changed.

Me too, but that's way above my pay grade.

[maplebanana]

15 hours ago, Kent said:

The new system definitely reduces the wild seemingly random swings. You can no longer gain or lose points without playing any games, which is good I think. Hopefully Canada can make a deep run in the Gold Cup and the Oct and we can see if that does much for their ranking or not.

I think the evaluation period is still over 4 years, so results from June 2017 will start to roll off the back end. I was trying to confirm this on the FIFA site but it's a little vague. One thing's for sure, there is no longer an 'average points per year' factor, meaning there is no benefit to avoiding friendlies purely to keep an average up. 

 

15 hours ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

I'd be fascinated to know what our current ranking would be if the math never changed.

I will get to this after I make my MATLAB-based Monte Carlo simulation. By the time I get to it though, FIFA will have probably changed the rankings methodology again.

[Kent]

7 hours ago, maplebanana said:

I think the evaluation period is still over 4 years, so results from June 2017 will start to roll off the back end. I was trying to confirm this on the FIFA site but it's a little vague. One thing's for sure, there is no longer an 'average points per year' factor, meaning there is no benefit to avoiding friendlies purely to keep an average up.

I am 99.5% sure the results don't roll off the back end. Keep in mind, aside from it not being mentioned in their formulation, Canada (and everybody) stayed flat for the yearish no games were being played. Canada was at 1332 points from Feb 2020 (right after their January friendlies) all the way until March 2021 (when they finally played games again in World Cup Qualifying). If results were still rolling off the back end, Canada's point total would have dropped in that time period.

[johnyb]

On 6/26/2021 at 8:53 PM, Kent said:

I am 99.5% sure the results don't roll off the back end. Keep in mind, aside from it not being mentioned in their formulation, Canada (and everybody) stayed flat for the yearish no games were being played. Canada was at 1332 points from Feb 2020 (right after their January friendlies) all the way until March 2021 (when they finally played games again in World Cup Qualifying). If results were still rolling off the back end, Canada's point total would have dropped in that time period.

Could be games are rolled off as other games are played. A new game bumps the 50th game for example. No idea, just figure there has to be a way to drop games.

[Redpunkfiddle]

1 hour ago, johnyb said:

Could be games are rolled off as other games are played. A new game bumps the 50th game for example. No idea, just figure there has to be a way to drop games.

The new system doesn't drop points from games over time. 

[Floortom]

 

Bad news...

 

[sstackho]

https://fcbayern.com/us/news/2021/07/rehab-in-munich-alphonso-davies-sidelined

Alphonso Davies faces a period on the sidelines at FC Bayern. The 20-year-old suffered an LCL tear to his left ankle in Canada’s build-up to the Gold Cup. Davies has now returned to Munich for rehab. The injury will be managed without invasive treatment.

 

[N1ckbr0wn]

Little positive spin:

 

[Ivan]

Isn't this the same injury David had?  And he was back playing in 2 weeks?

[Obinna]

1 hour ago, Ivan said:

Isn't this the same injury David had?  And he was back playing in 2 weeks?

They were in the middle of a title race. Perhaps that explains the quick return.

[Shway]

If he were to miss any game in the Octo, September I think would be the “best” stretch of games for him to miss. El Salvador, and Honduras at home - I’m confident in our guys.

Plus I think this injury  might be a blessing in disguise in the sense that other guys like TB will emerge as real options and we aren’t so heavily dependent on Davies.

[dyslexic nam]

20 minutes ago, Shway said:

If he were to miss any game in the Octo, September I think would be the “best” stretch of games for him to miss. El Salvador, and Honduras at home - I’m confident in our guys.

Plus I think this injury  might be a blessing in disguise in the sense that other guys like TB will emerge as real options and we aren’t so heavily dependent on Davies.

Yes and no.  The reality is that we need at least two wins in this window to stay in the hunt and Honduras will never be easy - even at home.  

[Shortdutchcanuck]

3 hours ago, dyslexic nam said:

Yes and no.  The reality is that we need at least two wins in this window to stay in the hunt and Honduras will never be easy - even at home.  

Answer to this question might be what we see from Tajon the rest of this tournament.  If he shows he can look this dominant against better teams we might actually be ok without Davies for one window 

[Kent]

11 hours ago, Ivan said:

Isn't this the same injury David had?  And he was back playing in 2 weeks?

I've been wondering if that ankle injury is what he was still struggling with during WCQ. It might have lingered due to him coming back so quickly during the title race.

[Free kick]

Radio-Canada was just reporting that, according to Bayern Munich,  the ankle injury that Davies sufferred will sidline him for several weeks. And that he will miss WCQ 😬 

Edited July 13, 2021 by Free kick

[frmr]

59 minutes ago, Kent said:

I've been wondering if that ankle injury is what he was still struggling with during WCQ. It might have lingered due to him coming back so quickly during the title race.

It was a groin tweak during WCQ. Can't remember where I read that but it was from a legit source. Maybe Wheeler's twitter or something.

[frmr]

28 minutes ago, Free kick said:

Radio-Canada was just reporting that, according to Bayern Munich,  the ankle injury that Davies sufferred will sidline him for several weeks. And that he will miss WCQ 😬 

Seems pretty presumptuous that several weeks would rule him out for WCQ.

[Free kick]

The fifa window on the international calendar is Aug 30- Sept 8.  Thats in in seven weeks.  So yes, its tough to say either way.  
 

 I am also concerned how this affects the relationship between the big clubs in europe and country (Canada) and what this could mean for future Canadian players vying for similar opportunities with super clubs?  What must Bayern Munich think if Canada calls it players for even the matches of lesser prestige or of little prestige when the americans basically called up none of their players from the big European clubs?  There have been big stars overseas from Concacaf like Dwight yorke (T&T & Man Utd) and David Suazo (Hon & Inter Milan) who have never played in the Gold Cup while they were at the height of their careers.  I am Almost certain that the same goes for Chicharito.

Edited July 13, 2021 by Free kick

[LeoH037]

1 hour ago, frmr said:

Seems pretty presumptuous that several weeks would rule him out for WCQ.

doesn't matter, he'll likely not be in form by the time he is recovered.

[xabuep2]

A bit of optimism, if we count the 4 weeks from today, they would end on August 10. We love you Davies! get well soon. 

[SpecialK]

He shouldn’t have been there in the first place. Stupid and selfish CSA and Herdman ! Pure amateur hour! 

[An Observer]

53 minutes ago, SpecialK said:

He shouldn’t have been there in the first place. Stupid and selfish CSA and Herdman ! Pure amateur hour! 

No.  He should have been getting injured in training at Bayern instead