WCQ: Jamaica vs Canada - Sunday, Oct 10, 6pm Eastern / 3pm Pacific - Kingston, Jamaica

[dyslexic nam]

Just now, Stryker911 said:

It is worth noting that the main reason everyone is worked up about this result is due to Panama winning their game. If, Panama had lost or tied then a draw in Jamaica doesn't look so bad. We have played 6 WCQ in Jamaica and this is the first time getting anything out of it.

Also for those worried about Jamaica climbing back into the picture they play their next 2 games on the road and then their following 2 games are at hone to US and Mexico, so they still have a very uphill battle.

With that being said Wednesday is very much a must win game.

Honestly, for me, this had nothing to do with the Panama result.  It was simply a recognition that there were three huge points up for grabs and despite a few absences, we should have had the team to grind out a result last night.  But as others have said, we played down who our opponents.  

One thing that hasn’t gotten a lot of attention was how vulnerable we were on crosses coming into the box - whether on set pieces or not (I think one was from open play).  Jamaica had two quality chances and we got lucky both times that they were poor finishers.   I know Vitoria is normally strong in the air but we need a plan B for his absence because a better team punishes us on those plays.  

[narduch]

2 minutes ago, Stryker911 said:

It is worth noting that the main reason everyone is worked up about this result is due to Panama winning their game. If, Panama had lost or tied then a draw in Jamaica doesn't look so bad. We have played 6 WCQ in Jamaica and this is the first time getting anything out of it.

Also for those worried about Jamaica climbing back into the picture, they play their next 2 games on the road and then their following 2 games are at home to US and Mexico, so they still have a very uphill battle.

With that being said Wednesday is very much a must win game.

We tied them 1-1 in 1992 trying to qualify USA 94. Goal by Dale Mitchell. 

For me the only silver lining is that it's just enough of a result for Jamaica to consider it a moral victory and continue to believe they aren't mathematically eliminated.

Road ties are great but we are at the point now where we need wins. 

[Hawkguy]

36 minutes ago, Stryker911 said:

It is worth noting that the main reason everyone is worked up about this result is due to Panama winning their game. If, Panama had lost or tied then a draw in Jamaica doesn't look so bad. We have played 6 WCQ in Jamaica and this is the first time getting anything out of it.

Also for those worried about Jamaica climbing back into the picture, they play their next 2 games on the road and then their following 2 games are at home to US and Mexico, so they still have a very uphill battle.

With that being said Wednesday is very much a must win game.

I don't think anyone is terribly worried about Jamaica. I think it's more Panama and Costa Rica. 

[Hawkguy]

31 minutes ago, narduch said:

We tied them 1-1 in 1992 trying to qualify USA 94. Goal by Dale Mitchell. 

For me the only silver lining is that it's just enough of a result for Jamaica to consider it a moral victory and continue to believe they aren't mathematically eliminated.

Road ties are great but we are at the point now where we need wins. 

Especially with their team so depleted and other teams picking up dominant wins in Jamaica like Panama. 

[Joe MacCarthy]

 

[gator]

47 minutes ago, Stryker911 said:

It is worth noting that the main reason everyone is worked up about this result is due to Panama winning their game. If, Panama had lost or tied then a draw in Jamaica doesn't look so bad. We have played 6 WCQ in Jamaica and this is the first time getting anything out of it.

Also for those worried about Jamaica climbing back into the picture, they play their next 2 games on the road and then their following 2 games are at home to US and Mexico, so they still have a very uphill battle.

With that being said Wednesday is very much a must win game.

I actually think it would be good if Jamaica takes some points off the other sides, they have a hell of an uphill battle and I would be surprised if they are challenging for a top 3 but we certainly don't want them being virtually eliminated and tanking for the remainder of their matches except when they visit Canada!

[TOcanadafan]

I’m also a bit disappointed that we didn’t take all 3 points, but when you compare Jamaica to the other teams we have left to play on the road, you could make the case that they are the best (certainly on paper, even with their depleted lineup).  I think people are worried that we are going to fall flat in our Central America tour, but I think it’ll be quite the opposite.  We will slip up once and get an ugly draw like we did tonight, but I see us winning 2 of the 4.

[narduch]

We still have all the Central America away days left (Costa Rica, Panama, Honduras, El Salvador).

Its part of the reason why we need to rack up points ahead of time now and why matches like yesterday v Jamaica and at home to Honduras feel like missed opportunities.

[Markoaleks]

Jamaica hit a post

had 2-3 solid chances off of set pieces that with better headers could have gone in 

We easily could have lost the game so take the point V’s and be happy especially with our depleted squad last night 

[Floortom]

6 minutes ago, narduch said:

We still have all the Central America away days left (Costa Rica, Panama, Honduras, El Salvador).

Its part of the reason why we need to rack up points ahead of time now and why matches like yesterday v Jamaica and at home to Honduras feel like missed opportunities.

I think we need at least 4 points and preferably 6 from those remaining away matches. That would leave us with 7 to 9 away points in total. To get the target of 21 points which would give us a very high probability of qualifying we would need 12-14 home points in total which would be 8-10 in our final 5 home matches --> wins against Panama, Costa Rica and Jamaica + bonus chances vs Mexico and USA. That should gets us 3rd place. 

 

[MtlMario]

All I'm going to say about this game is it was a very very frustrating game to watch. It felt like we went back in time watching Canada play. I had to watch the game recorded because I was at my granddaughter's birthday party and had a few drinks but that is my feeling. I do not want to feel like this again.

[dyslexic nam]

11 minutes ago, Floortom said:

I think we need at least 4 points and preferably 6 from those remaining away matches. That would leave us with 7 to 9 away points in total. To get the target of 21 points which would give us a very high probability of qualifying we would need 12-14 home points in total which would be 8-10 in our final 5 home matches --> wins against Panama, Costa Rica and Jamaica + bonus chances vs Mexico and USA. That should gets us 3rd place. 

 

That math is what makes me depressed about the dropped points against Honduras and Jamaica.   We have pretty much used up the “slip up” margin of error we had, and we now need to be clinical in those games that we need results in.   

[dyslexic nam]

3 minutes ago, MtlMario said:

All I'm going to say about this game is it was a very very frustrating game to watch. It felt like we went back in time watching Canada play. I had to watch the game recorded because I was at my granddaughter's birthday party and had a few drinks but that is my feeling. I do not want to feel like this again.

I said the same thing to a friend while watching the game.  This was very much like watching Canada 2015 (or before).  

[BearcatSA]

2 hours ago, rydermike said:

To be fair to them, they were 89tg minute subs. Coming on and basically being told you have 2 minutes to get us a goal, the pressure trying to be perfect, the not being game speed from sitting for two hours, all of it contributes. If they had another 10 minutes, perhaps they would've been calmer, more into the game etc, but we'll never know. 

Tons of other players on our team had those terrible end result plays today, the difference is they had more minutes to make some good plays. Bryn and Shaff basically only had one chance. What if Davies came on in the 89 and his only play was the one where the easy ball rolled under his foot and out for a throw, if Henry's only play was that ball he sailed 20 metres over, if Johnston's only play was his terrible cross, etc. Can't really fault a 2 minute player for a loss based on having one touch of the ball. 

We had a horrible midfield giveaway by Piette (in part caused by a lousy pitch) which resulted in a great chance for them off the counter.  And, considering the other bad touches witnessed, sometimes it is better to be a little more conservative.  Keeping the ball is the best defence and depending on the specific situation, it's better to go with the best way to keep the point.  

Sure, you want to "make something happen" as a forward playing sub but you have take in the context of the game situation.

[trc2014]

I find JH’s coaching strategy interesting - on games like this where he should be upset post game he isn’t, atleast in front of the media (this game and the US away in Orlando jump to mind), while he was upset we didn’t get the win in Mexico.  I think he knows the team is upset itself so no sense piling on and he is there to pick them up?

I’m also very surprised there isn’t more chatter that Davies and David were on for 90 or so minutes when we needed their legs for Panama. 

[dyslexic nam]

9 minutes ago, trc2014 said:

I find JH’s coaching strategy interesting - on games like this where he should be upset post game he isn’t, atleast in front of the media (this game and the US away in Orlando jump to mind), while he was upset we didn’t get the win in Mexico.  I think he knows the team is upset itself so no sense piling on and he is there to pick them up?

I’m also very surprised there isn’t more chatter that Davies and David were on for 90 or so minutes when we needed their legs for Panama. 

I think this is correct.  Herdman knows an away draw to Mexico is good but he wants to keep the boys believing in themselves.  

Anyone with eyes could tell we underperformed last night so the post game mantra about it being an important away win was about keeping a still-young team motivated and not having their heads drop before a must-win against Panama.  

It seems to be all about managing the level of self-belief among the squad, which is fine - but it also means that he is saying what is useful not what is true.  
 

Edited October 11, 2021 by dyslexic nam

[Club Linesman]

One would have to assume that David and Davies start the Panama game.  If not and there are some unspoken arrangements with club teams then he may have blown it earlier in the window.  Some players are capable of maintaining a high level through three games, let’s hope Davies keeps his and David can now step up as he has done very little so far.

[BearcatSA]

4 hours ago, rydermike said:

To be fair to them, they were 89tg minute subs. Coming on and basically being told you have 2 minutes to get us a goal, the pressure trying to be perfect, the not being game speed from sitting for two hours, all of it contributes. If they had another 10 minutes, perhaps they would've been calmer, more into the game etc, but we'll never know. 

Tons of other players on our team had those terrible end result plays today, the difference is they had more minutes to make some good plays. Bryn and Shaff basically only had one chance. What if Davies came on in the 89 and his only play was the one where the easy ball rolled under his foot and out for a throw, if Henry's only play was that ball he sailed 20 metres over, if Johnston's only play was his terrible cross, etc. Can't really fault a 2 minute player for a loss based on having one touch of the ball. 

We had a horrible midfield giveaway by Piette (in part caused by a lousy pitch) which resulted in a great chance for them off the counter.  And, considering the other bad touches witnessed, sometimes it is better to be a little more conservative.  Keeping the ball is the best defence and depending on the specific situation, it's better to go with the best way to keep the point.  

Sure, you want to "make something happen" as a forward playing sub but you have take in the context of the game situation.

The Shaffelburg giveaway started a three pass counterattack sequence resulting in Lawrence's good shot and Crepeau's alert save for a final corner kick in the dying seconds.  On the Brym play earlier, he wasn't really getting closed down yet rushed an off balance cross while Wotherspoon (not Johnson, as I thought at first) had been able to evade his three markers, drifted into a more dangerous position ahead of them, and was calling for the ball.  If I was Spoony, I'd have been frustrated, too.

Edited October 11, 2021 by BearcatSA

[Kadenge]

I know most of us thought a win was in the cards but based on field play  I am ok with the 1 point. We dropped 2  at home v Honduras but picked up 2 massive away points v USA & Mexico. A win on Wednesday puts us back in 3rd. The Octo has been full of surprises with more to come. Look at  USA/Panama/Jamaica. It's clear the coaching staff don't trust several of our current players to start and  why missing Larin, Atiba, Cav, Hoilett is huge. Still can't get why Tesho isn't on this squad!

[SoccMan]

57 minutes ago, Club Linesman said:

One would have to assume that David and Davies start the Panama game.  If not and there are some unspoken arrangements with club teams then he may have blown it earlier in the window.  Some players are capable of maintaining a high level through three games, let’s hope Davies keeps his and David can now step up as he has done very little so far.

If that’s the case then what’s the point of international soccer? If a national coach can't play his best player as much as he wants in crucial World Cup qualify games . Let’s be realistic here Bayern Munich can play most of their games a man down and still win a lot of their games , Bayern getting a tired Davies for a game when he gets back is not going to make that much of a difference, so he doesn’t play a full game when he gets back they have enough quality players to manage without him playing the full 90 minutes for them for a game .

[youllneverwalkalone]

1 hour ago, dyslexic nam said:

That math is what makes me depressed about the dropped points against Honduras and Jamaica.   We have pretty much used up the “slip up” margin of error we had, and we now need to be clinical in those games that we need results in.   

Guys, what is going on here? I guess I don't understand the math because 4 more draws away and 3 out of 5 wins at home gets us to 20 pts. Don't most simulations say this takes us through in 3rd? Panama have Canada home and away, Honduras home and away, Costa Rica away, Mexico Away, USA away. How many points is that for them? 3 or 4? Even if they take 6 against El Salvador and Jamaica, that puts them at 17-18 for 4th.

What am I missing?

[SoccMan]

22 minutes ago, Kadenge said:

I know most of us thought a win was in the cards but based on field play  I am ok with the 1 point. We dropped 2  at home v Honduras but picked up 2 massive away points v USA & Mexico. A win on Wednesday puts us back in 3rd. The Octo has been full of surprises with more to come. Look at  USA/Panama/Jamaica. It's clear the coaching staff don't trust several of our current players to start and  why missing Larin, Atiba, Cav, Hoilett is huge. Still can't get why Tesho isn't on this squad!

Totally agree I think all this talk about how many points we need to make it is out the window with a lot of these results, like the US losing in Panama no one would have predicted that . Look at El Salvador they are all over the place with their results so far , even Jamaica is not out of it yet if they get their better players back they can still go on a run . This is a very unpredictable qualifying round and I think many teams will be in it right until the end.

[EJsens1]

3 minutes ago, youllneverwalkalone said:

Guys, what is going on here? I guess I don't understand the math because 4 more draws away and 3 out of 5 wins at home gets us to 20 pts. Don't most simulations say this takes us through in 3rd? Panama have Canada home and away, Honduras home and away, Costa Rica away, Mexico Away, USA away. How many points is that for them? 3 or 4? Even if they take 6 against El Salvador and Jamaica, that puts them at 17-18 for 4th.

What am I missing?

Exactly.  It’s this assumption that they’ll win this, only lose there and tie in another.  We still control our own destiny I believe.  We’ve played 35% of the games.  I think we’ll get the true picture by the end of the January window.  Not after 5 games 

[dyslexic nam]

5 minutes ago, youllneverwalkalone said:

Guys, what is going on here? I guess I don't understand the math because 4 more draws away and 3 out of 5 wins at home gets us to 20 pts. Don't most simulations say this takes us through in 3rd? Panama have Canada home and away, Honduras home and away, Costa Rica away, Mexico Away, USA away. How many points is that for them? 3 or 4? Even if they take 6 against El Salvador and Jamaica, that puts them at 17-18 for 4th.

What am I missing?

For me it is the margin of error.  You are basically saying that we have to not lose on the road again and win 3 home games.  Neither of those tasks will be easy.  

No one is pulling the rip chord on this campaign.   But we are (or at least I am) lamenting the fact that we are burning through our wiggle room pretty quickly.   Any more slip ups and we will have little to no margin for error in what is still a long campaign. 
 

[Floortom]

8 minutes ago, youllneverwalkalone said:

Guys, what is going on here? I guess I don't understand the math because 4 more draws away and 3 out of 5 wins at home gets us to 20 pts. Don't most simulations say this takes us through in 3rd? Panama have Canada home and away, Honduras home and away, Costa Rica away, Mexico Away, USA away. How many points is that for them? 3 or 4? Even if they take 6 against El Salvador and Jamaica, that puts them at 17-18 for 4th.

What am I missing?

You’re not missing anything - we’re in solid position. We just haven’t taken control of a spot and that’s causing some anxiety.

everyone should reassess after Wednesday. two weeks ago had you offered me 5 points this window I would have jumped at that. 
 

A win Wednesday and we’re at 10 points through 6 matches and have a pretty clear path to qualification.