WCQ: Jamaica vs Canada - Sunday, Oct 10, 6pm Eastern / 3pm Pacific - Kingston, Jamaica

[SoccMan]

10 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

For me it is the margin of error.  You are basically saying that we have to not lose on the road again and win 3 home games.  Neither of those tasks will be easy.  

No one is pulling the rip chord on this campaign.   But we are (or at least I am) lamenting the fact that we are burning through our wiggle room pretty quickly.   Any more slip ups and we will have little to no margin for error in what is still a long campaign. 
 

But your assuming that the other teams are not going to have slip ups from the way this is going it looks like a lot of slip ups by almost every team is still a very good possibility.

[Cheeta]

26 minutes ago, youllneverwalkalone said:

Guys, what is going on here? I guess I don't understand the math because 4 more draws away and 3 out of 5 wins at home gets us to 20 pts. Don't most simulations say this takes us through in 3rd? Panama have Canada home and away, Honduras home and away, Costa Rica away, Mexico Away, USA away. How many points is that for them? 3 or 4? Even if they take 6 against El Salvador and Jamaica, that puts them at 17-18 for 4th.

What am I missing?

LOL.  This is CONCACAF?

It can't be said enought, these three home matches as much as decide it all.  I just think it's going to be too hard to get more than 5 points in the next two windows. The travel is brutal, there is going to be a Hell of a lot of CONCACRAPING going at those away matches plus one of our two remaining home fixtures is against the USA. 

Wednesday is about a close to a must win as we'll see, need to deny Panama any points.

 

 

[The Beaver 2.0]

Was hoping we'd get four points from this window, but five is still in the cards. A win at home was always the goal; now let's get it. We'll have at least five (mostly) fresh starters back in the fold, with Eustaquio, Millar, Vittoria, Buchanan, and Laryea.  My guess is that Davies will start and go as long as he can.  If Larin is available, I am not sure he starts. 

None of our games are easy. Plain and simple. And, yet, we've taken points in each of our games, including three very tough draws on the road.  We will have the home crowd, several fresh (high quality) bodies back in the starting 11, and a Panama team that has had to travel a fair distance.  Panama will be tough, but we will be ready.

 

[archer21]

35 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

For me it is the margin of error.  You are basically saying that we have to not lose on the road again and win 3 home games.  Neither of those tasks will be easy.  

No one is pulling the rip chord on this campaign.   But we are (or at least I am) lamenting the fact that we are burning through our wiggle room pretty quickly.   Any more slip ups and we will have little to no margin for error in what is still a long campaign. 
 

Agreed, but it’s not like we can’t win any of our away matches. Win 1 away match (I’d expect us to win at least 1 of @ES, @Panama, @Costa Rica, @Honduras) and suddenly you have a bit of wiggle room again. I know it’s hard to play away in Central America, but we have the talent to do it.

[CanadaFan123]

The one scenario we have to worry about is needing a draw @ Panama on match day 14. That has traditionally been our death sentence. 

Every team has had disappointing results. If any of us were offered 7 points after 5 games we all would have taken it. 

[grigorio]

2 minutes ago, CanadaFan123 said:

The one scenario we have to worry about is needing a draw @ Panama on match day 14. That has traditionally been our death sentence. 

Every team has had disappointing results. If any of us were offered 7 points after 5 games we all would have taken it. 

That’s exactly it. We are exactly where everyone would have predicted after 5 matches we just went about it a different way rather than losing away to USA/Mexico and drawing Jamaica we found a different path to 7 points. The sky isn’t falling. 

[MauditYvon]

Nobody saw us undefeated after 5 games

[MauditYvon]

And that's a proper 7 points (1 win 4 draws) in a 8 teams table with top 4 advancing, because we kept Honduras and Jamaica at distance (even the States).

[canadasoccer20]

28 minutes ago, The Beaver 2.0 said:

Was hoping we'd get four points from this window, but five is still in the cards. A win at home was always the goal; now let's get it. We'll have at least five (mostly) fresh starters back in the fold, with Eustaquio, Millar, Vittoria, Buchanan, and Laryea.  My guess is that Davies will start and go as long as he can.  If Larin is available, I am not sure he starts. 

None of our games are easy. Plain and simple. And, yet, we've taken points in each of our games, including three very tough draws on the road.  We will have the home crowd, several fresh (high quality) bodies back in the starting 11, and a Panama team that has had to travel a fair distance.  Panama will be tough, but we will be ready.

 

Panama will also have tired legs similar to El Salvador last window.. i believe 8/9 out of the 10 starters started both games including the whole back 4. We are going to need our speed to dictate the game. 

[archer21]

I think we’re underestimating the squad that Jamaica put out. On paper, yes they are missing a lot of their top players. They’re all recent additions though, and before all these English players were added, Jamaica were still a top 5 team. With their domestic players, they drew away to Costa Rica and nearly drew away to Mexico. The first window was very strange for them, as they tried to fit all of their UK players into one match, when they don’t all fit together. I think in the future windows, we’ll see a better mix of domestic/UK players and they’ll get some good results.

[The Beaver 2.0]

8 hours ago, archer21 said:

I think we’re underestimating the squad that Jamaica put out. On paper, yes they are missing a lot of their top players. They’re all recent additions though, and before all these English players were added, Jamaica were still a top 5 team. With their domestic players, they drew away to Costa Rica and nearly drew away to Mexico. The first window was very strange for them, as they tried to fit all of their UK players into one match, when they don’t all fit together. I think in the future windows, we’ll see a better mix of domestic/UK players and they’ll get some good results.

Jamaica may have left things too late, but with 9 games yet to go, they will still have hope and could do some damage along the way.  Presuming we can beat them at home--and we will!--then I am fine with them taking points here and there from the rest of the field. At minimum, they are going to leave a mark on the central american teams. The Boyz are athletic and strong-as-hell.

[finchster]

You have to win games like this to qualify for the world cup. The last time around, El Salvador was in disarray with problems with the FA, and we drew them 0-0 in El Salvador. If they had won the most winnable game in qualifying, they would've gone to the next round- Jamaica was the most winnable game on the road this round. Jesus, they didn't even have fans there.

Panama is a must-win; getting just two/three points in this part of qualifying isn't good enough. I don't care if no one has ever gotten results in the USA and Mexico if we don't qualify. 

Edited October 12, 2021 by finchster

[gator]

18 hours ago, archer21 said:

I think we’re underestimating the squad that Jamaica put out. On paper, yes they are missing a lot of their top players. They’re all recent additions though, and before all these English players were added, Jamaica were still a top 5 team. With their domestic players, they drew away to Costa Rica and nearly drew away to Mexico. The first window was very strange for them, as they tried to fit all of their UK players into one match, when they don’t all fit together. I think in the future windows, we’ll see a better mix of domestic/UK players and they’ll get some good results.

Jamaica had quality up front, being a QPR fan I have seen a bit of Andre Gray and I have to admit I was very concerned when he came on against our obviously tiring team, he is just the kind of player that makes something out of nothing with his speed and skill, of course Roofe is a quality forward too, they have the potential to win some games in this round! Gray  however should have been sent off for his elbow, no wonder most of these nations don't want VAR!

[Obinna]

Jamaica is rarely an easy match for Canada. Even when we beat them they make us earn it. We don't match up well with them. They are big and physical and fouled early and often so we couldn't get in rhythm. It was very well played by them if you ask me. Their game play to break things up was aided by the poor field, and it worked.

Maybe if we were at full strength we would have gotten more, but we weren't and we didn't.

I know people will look to the Panama win down there, and rightfully so, but Jamaica were more organized this time around with their backs against the wall. I am not happy we dropped points down there, but I will take it all things considered. 

[BearcatSA]

3 hours ago, Obinna said:

Jamaica is rarely an easy match for Canada. Even when we beat them they make us earn it. We don't match up well with them. They are big and physical and fouled early and often so we couldn't get in rhythm. It was very well played by them if you ask me. Their game play to break things up was aided by the poor field, and it worked.

Maybe if we were at full strength we would have gotten more, but we weren't and we didn't.

I know people will look to the Panama win down there, and rightfully so, but Jamaica were more organized this time around with their backs against the wall. I am not happy we dropped points down there, but I will take it all things considered. 

We'll see a lot of that game plan in Latin America throughout the Ocho.

[Obinna]

Just now, BearcatSA said:

We'll see a lot of that game plan in Latin America throughout the Ocho.

Certainly.

It looks a bit different in CA though. Persistent fouling is expected, but I am not sure Panama, Costa Rica, El Salvador and even Honduras will be as difficult to play through, but time will tell of course.

[kungfucious]

On 10/8/2021 at 11:45 AM, Kent said:

In the 88th minute of game 1, Jamaica was tied with Mexico in Mexico, in line to pick up an unlikely point in game 1. 2 minutes and 3 games later, they are only on 1 point. Crazy!

wow.    if only everybody on the board saw this before KO, we wouldnt be so angry right now...

[kungfucious]

On 10/9/2021 at 4:20 PM, Joe Keeper said:

For me, the prevailing logic for approaching this game has to be the importance of taking 3 points in Kingston, not squad rotation. With all due respect, this game is no less important  than the home game on Wednesday. 

You dont ever gun to sacrifice or needlessly risk points in a WCQ. Six points here should be the goal. This is a critical 2 games given where the concacaf standings and our place in them are. 

Jamaica will not be as easy as some think. This is not a game to mail in. Jamaica are desperate, playing at home and hosting us in plus 30 degree weather. Beating the bottom of the table team should absolutely be our goal, but do not underestimate them. We are a different team from years past, but lets not be arrogant. Six points here may be critical given the schedule overall. Do the job right; wins get you to the World Cup.

I would agree with others, we should be calling in reinforcements now. The squad is very depleted at this point from cards, injuries and  fitness. Ill take this one further and say overall, we maybe should not have called in Borjan, Hutchinson, Cavallini, or Larin (or some combination)  if they had so little chance of playing. It is highly debatable but extra players with better fitness may see us over the line in these critical matches. 

Think of the other side of the coin. If Herdman is content to play for a draw in Kingston and then somehow we lose or draw the home game against Panama (who will be looking to overtake us with 3 points, not draw) we would quickly be in deep trouble... 

This going in to games against a desperate Costa Rica and pissed off Mexico with mounting injuries to our top and better players.... not good. Plus other teams below us will start winning too. We cant look at our points or place in the standings in isolation from other teams intentions or abilities. 

Also, with our decent start, is it not better to get the points now rather than risking being in a position to have to do it later with less games to go? 

Points dropped or losses now mean far, far more pressure to get them back in later matches when other teams may be in better form. If we have points/wins in hand now, our ability to convert future games in to points would be a massive advantage in many ways (on and off the field) next year. 

 

Personally, I think we should have called up Akindele and Corbeanu already. Midfield is starting to look a tad thin too. Herdman (or the CSAs) reluctance to call up full rosters and with healthy players is starting to concern me. With so many great players available  in these exciting days for Canadian footy, we need to make full use of our overall talent pool to compliment the core. Not tapping all our depth is a detriment to our goal to qualify. 

'sigh' if only, if only, eh @Joe Keeper?

Edited October 13, 2021 by kungfucious
angry = cannot type