Jonathan David

[VinceA]

The more i look at this the more i laugh

[InglewoodJack]

That picture is even funnier because of how bad the photoshop is and the fact that every single top comment is a CANMNT player.

 

also, this is how I found out that Theo Bair’s full name is Thelonious. Awesome name. 

[Joe MacCarthy]

Theo "The Monk" Bair

[Aird25]

Does anyone know how to watch the match against Abzi’s Pau FC tomorrow?

[Alex]

David owned Instagram again today….. with a classic dodgeball scene. 

[PastPros]

2 hours ago, Alex said:

David owned Instagram again today….. with a classic dodgeball scene. 

He's upped his Instagram game. Probably a new hire on Team David.

[red card]

4 hours ago, Aird25 said:

Does anyone know how to watch the match against Abzi’s Pau FC tomorrow?

Looks like it is live on Bein Sports Connect 7. But for those who have fubo, Bein Canada's regular channel has a delayed showing at 2200.

Or find a FS2 livestream.

[narduch]

Lille have drawn Lyon for the next round of the Coupe de France.

Lyon are having a pretty terrible domestic season. Currently in 9th. 9 points behind Lille.

[InglewoodJack]

I wonder how true this is- I saw Veth make a comment on Twitter yesterday about speculating that David is too expensive for the teams that would realistically attract him, so I don't know if it's pure speculation.

Terrem Moffi is apparently close to being sold to Nice for 30M euros. He has one more goal than JD, and is the same age. That certainly won't help bump JD's value up.

[Obinna]

1 hour ago, InglewoodJack said:

I wonder how true this is- I saw Veth make a comment on Twitter yesterday about speculating that David is too expensive for the teams that would realistically attract him, so I don't know if it's pure speculation.

Terrem Moffi is apparently close to being sold to Nice for 30M euros. He has one more goal than JD, and is the same age. That certainly won't help bump JD's value up.

The problem is that Lille overpaid for David to begin with. Gent were smart and held out until someone came in with an outrageous offer. I remember when Benfica put in a bid to Gent for like 6 million euros. I think that was the first reported big that was rejected. Obviously David was worth more than 6 million, but they were able to get 30 in the end, which was incredible business by Gent. If Lille paid 20M for David I bet he would have been gone by now for 30ish million and Lille would have turned their tidy profit. 

[InglewoodJack]

14 minutes ago, Obinna said:

The problem is that Lille overpaid for David to begin with. Gent were smart and held out until someone came in with an outrageous offer. I remember when Benfica put in a bid to Gent for like 6 million euros. I think that was the first reported big that was rejected. Obviously David was worth more than 6 million, but they were able to get 30 in the end, which was incredible business by Gent. If Lille paid 20M for David I bet he would have been gone by now for 30ish million and Lille would have turned their tidy profit. 

Yeah, Lille can't simply let one of their best players ever leave for around 10M in profit, but he also won't be able to raise his value playing in France, since he's done (nearly) all he can do to significantly raise his price. His deal ends in two years, I hope Lille realizes that there really isn't a path to increasing his fee, and if anything, it'll drop as he gets older. That doesn't solve the issue of David himself turning down the likes of Everton, etc., since there are only a select few teams he wants to play for.

I think like in every sport, there is less and less space for mid-level contracts and transfers. Does a market even really exist for players in the 40-60M range? If JD was 18 putting these numbers up, Lille could easily sell him for 80-90M to Chelsea and keep it moving. If JD was 28, they could sell him for 15M to a premier league team too. But at his current price? I feel like teams that spend over 20M on a player expect him to be The Next Big Thing, but those players are much more expensive. Why spend a 45M on Jonathan David when you can add that to your Jude Bellingham, or Caicedo or Enzo Fernandez budget? Any team that buys David is likely going to find themselves unable to do after the truly massive transfer prizes.

The only realistic way that Lille has to increase his value, unless the right offer comes this summer, is to sell him to PSG and agree to a sell-on clause. Sell him cheap to them for ~35M, get a 10% sell on clause, hope PSG wins the champions league and flips him to the premier league for 75M and there's your 45 or so millions. PSG will need a striker next year, likely, he's proven in France, it could be a good move. Other than that, No idea how David is supposed to not only match his current value, but increase it. Lille isn't close to Champions League, he's already the best player in France not on PSG, what more can he do? I guess if he finishes the season consistent and gets to like 25G it'll help, but will that realistically get interest from teams who are not currently interested? Not sure.

Edited January 25, 2023 by InglewoodJack

[Kadenge]

13 minutes ago, Obinna said:

The problem is that Lille overpaid for David to begin with. Gent were smart and held out until someone came in with an outrageous offer. I remember when Benfica put in a bid to Gent for like 6 million euros. I think that was the first reported big that was rejected. Obviously David was worth more than 6 million, but they were able to get 30 in the end, which was incredible business by Gent. If Lille paid 20M for David I bet he would have been gone by now for 30ish million and Lille would have turned their tidy profit. 

While I agree that Lille paying 30M given their business model of buying low and selling high, was over the top, David helped them win Ligue 1 in his first year and as a result Lille qualified for Champions League the next season. He has also been their top goal scorer. They have already reaped financial benefits from signing him, so I'm not sure why Lille are inflating their asking price.  Have there been any offers made over the past 2 yrs for David that were rejected ?

[Unnamed Trialist]

Guys, you are doing the numbers incorrectly.

It is not like a stock or gold, where if you sell below purchase price you have lost money. 

The value may rise after purchase price in function of his goal scoring, but there are other variables. 

First, that by producing for his club they are getting their investment back. Arguably, they won a league and made Champions League thanks to him in part, which brought in income from a lot of directions. The longer he stays and produces, the more the investment gets covered. 

Next, his contract length determines value. He is actually at a good moment for his club to sell, where there are 2.5 years left on his Lille deal. He can't go on a free or even negotiate until 2 years from now. If he is scoring and anyone wants him his value stays up because no one will wait to get him on a free. So that pushes value up, as long as he is producing.

Then, his age keeps his value up, buyers want someone who is young, can produce, and can still be sold because he will still have mature years left.

Factor pushing the value down: proximity to the end of the contract. By summer 2024, if he has not gone, teams will be starting to lowball offers to Lille because they'll know that they won't be able to ask top price. When the guy has 10 months left on his deal and has not renewed, as a club you take what you can get and say thanks for everything we talked about in the first point: you paid back what we paid for you by performing for us.

Edit: @Kadengegood post we are basically saying the same thing. Price has variables and selling for more than you paid need not be sacrosanct.

Edited January 25, 2023 by Unnamed Trialist

[Stryker911]

2 hours ago, InglewoodJack said:

I wonder how true this is- I saw Veth make a comment on Twitter yesterday about speculating that David is too expensive for the teams that would realistically attract him, so I don't know if it's pure speculation.

Terrem Moffi is apparently close to being sold to Nice for 30M euros. He has one more goal than JD, and is the same age. That certainly won't help bump JD's value up.

You can't really compare those 2. David is actually a year younger and has put up 5 consecutive double digit goal tallies between Belgium and France. Meanwhile whole also spending 2 years in Belgium and 3 in France Moffi has only done it twice.

David has also won a league title and has alot of European and International experience. If Moffi goes for 30 there is no reason why David isnt worth 45+.

[Obinna]

6 minutes ago, Stryker911 said:

You can't really compare those 2. David is actually a year younger and has put up 5 consecutive double digit goal tallies between Belgium and France. Meanwhile whole also spending 2 years in Belgium and 3 in France Moffi has only done it twice.

David has also won a league title and has alot of European and International experience. If Moffi goes for 30 there is no reason why David isnt worth 45+.

Moffi also doesn't have the international resume that David has. He has 3 goals in 9 games for Nigeria, whereas David has 22 goals in 38 Canada games. David is also a WC vet.

I don't know how much that matters much, but maybe those international stats count for something. Maybe only for reputation and marketability to a growing soccer audience in North America?

[Kadenge]

Part of the issue with David is that he's not a prototypical #9 . Is he a false 9, a 10? Does he have to play with a big striker? He seems to have adjusted well from playing behind 2 big forwards at Gent to playing with Yilmaz up front and now as a #9.  So while he has proven to be adaptable, he may not fit the profile that a select group of teams are looking for. David also seems to be set on the EPL which further narrows the potential teams he could move to.

[InglewoodJack]

26 minutes ago, Stryker911 said:

You can't really compare those 2. David is actually a year younger and has put up 5 consecutive double digit goal tallies between Belgium and France. Meanwhile whole also spending 2 years in Belgium and 3 in France Moffi has only done it twice.

David has also won a league title and has alot of European and International experience. If Moffi goes for 30 there is no reason why David isnt worth 45+.

David is absolutely the better player, but are clubs really going to pay a 150% markup over Moffi for those accolades? We also know that this 45M or so is probably Lille's basement, hard pill to swallow price, and they're likely hoping for something over 50.

36 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Guys, you are doing the numbers incorrectly.

It is not like a stock or gold, where if you sell below purchase price you have lost money. 

The value may rise after purchase price in function of his goal scoring, but there are other variables. 

First, that by producing for his club they are getting their investment back. Arguably, they won a league and made Champions League thanks to him in part, which brought in income from a lot of directions. The longer he stays and produces, the more the investment gets covered. 

Next, his contract length determines value. He is actually at a good moment for his club to sell, where there are 2.5 years left on his Lille deal. He can't go on a free or even negotiate until 2 years from now. If he is scoring and anyone wants him his value stays up because no one will wait to get him on a free. So that pushes value up, as long as he is producing.

Then, his age keeps his value up, buyers want someone who is young, can produce, and can still be sold because he will still have mature years left.

Factor pushing the value down: proximity to the end of the contract. By summer 2024, if he has not gone, teams will be starting to lowball offers to Lille because they'll know that they won't be able to ask top price. When the guy has 10 months left on his deal and has not renewed, as a club you take what you can get and say thanks for everything we talked about in the first point: you paid back what we paid for you by performing for us.

Edit: @Kadengegood post we are basically saying the same thing. Price has variables and selling for more than you paid need not be sacrosanct.

I don't think anyone disagrees, but does Lille agree? David was purchased during the pandemic, when revenues were down. That championship season was held behind closed doors, if I'm not mistaken. Lille looks at sales like Pepe for 80, Osimhen for 75, Hazard for 35- do they really want their all time leading goal scorer- in his prime- to fetch the same fee Hazard got them 11 years ago?

 

Agree with everything about his age and contract duration bringing his future value down, and I think that's something Lille will have to seriously start thinking about this summer, but there's also the issue of the clubs David wants to go to. On the day that Lille finally give up and sell JD to West Ham for 37M, is David going to give his approval? He will not.

[Bigandy]

1 hour ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Guys, you are doing the numbers incorrectly.

It is not like a stock or gold, where if you sell below purchase price you have lost money. 

The value may rise after purchase price in function of his goal scoring, but there are other variables. 

First, that by producing for his club they are getting their investment back. Arguably, they won a league and made Champions League thanks to him in part, which brought in income from a lot of directions. The longer he stays and produces, the more the investment gets covered. 

Next, his contract length determines value. He is actually at a good moment for his club to sell, where there are 2.5 years left on his Lille deal. He can't go on a free or even negotiate until 2 years from now. If he is scoring and anyone wants him his value stays up because no one will wait to get him on a free. So that pushes value up, as long as he is producing.

Then, his age keeps his value up, buyers want someone who is young, can produce, and can still be sold because he will still have mature years left.

Factor pushing the value down: proximity to the end of the contract. By summer 2024, if he has not gone, teams will be starting to lowball offers to Lille because they'll know that they won't be able to ask top price. When the guy has 10 months left on his deal and has not renewed, as a club you take what you can get and say thanks for everything we talked about in the first point: you paid back what we paid for you by performing for us.

Edit: @Kadengegood post we are basically saying the same thing. Price has variables and selling for more than you paid need not be sacrosanct.

You can also factor in how accounting influences cash flow. 

1. payments can be over several years. This impacts both the fee to bring him in and the fee to sell him. The higher the number, the more likely the fee will be across several years.
2. Players are essentially assets and have depreciated over years. This comes into play for the big teams with FFP but can also impact teams like lille for there cash flows. If they have a player who has depreciated a bunch, then they have less leverage with negotiating higher lines of credit. Sometimes teams have to do some clever accounting to balance the books, even though cash isnt as significantly impacted. 

[Unnamed Trialist]

1 hour ago, Bigandy said:

You can also factor in how accounting influences cash flow. 

1. payments can be over several years. This impacts both the fee to bring him in and the fee to sell him. The higher the number, the more likely the fee will be across several years.
2. Players are essentially assets and have depreciated over years. This comes into play for the big teams with FFP but can also impact teams like lille for there cash flows. If they have a player who has depreciated a bunch, then they have less leverage with negotiating higher lines of credit. Sometimes teams have to do some clever accounting to balance the books, even though cash isnt as significantly impacted. 

I don't know about financial fair play much in UEFa, though I think they don't apply their own rules evenly. In France, I understand even less. In Spain it's rather complicated and is having a massive effect on how teams sign. We know about Barça, but even Madrid, who are "struggling" of sorts and need players, is not signing, not even moving "dead wood" like Hazard out.

[Bigandy]

44 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

I don't know about financial fair play much in UEFa, though I think they don't apply their own rules evenly. In France, I understand even less. In Spain it's rather complicated and is having a massive effect on how teams sign. We know about Barça, but even Madrid, who are "struggling" of sorts and need players, is not signing, not even moving "dead wood" like Hazard out.

It certainly feels that way - or at the least that they are not consistent with enforcement.  

[Cheeta]

7 hours ago, InglewoodJack said:

...

On the day that Lille finally give up and sell JD to West Ham for 37M, is David going to give his approval? He will not.

Depending on personal terms David might push for the move.  He has a lot of years in front of him.  Very much doubt his next team will be his last.

Never say never. 

[Floortom]

Isak went for 70M last year...very similar profile as David (obviously different types of players though).  I dont think 50M is unreasonable.

[Joe MacCarthy]

[Floortom]

20 hours ago, Obinna said:

Moffi also doesn't have the international resume that David has. He has 3 goals in 9 games for Nigeria, whereas David has 22 goals in 38 Canada games. David is also a WC vet.

I don't know how much that matters much, but maybe those international stats count for something. Maybe only for reputation and marketability to a growing soccer audience in North America?

Moffi is an interesting case. Sure he has a good scoring record this season, but his npxG + xA has actually decreased every season with Lorient from 0.55 to 0.47 to 0.40 this season. I wouldnt feel great about that if I'm buying. 

David has the exact opposite trend from 0.45 in year 1 to 0.55 and now 0.74. 

[InglewoodJack]

12 hours ago, Cheeta said:

Depending on personal terms David might push for the move.  He has a lot of years in front of him.  Very much doubt his next team will be his last.

Never say never. 

I'm not sure about that. David effectively refused to consider MLS before his move to Europe, he turned down at least Everton, he seems like a player who is very specific with the types of teams he wants to play for. Not necessarily a bad thing, and a year in the premier league could help him get a move elsewhere, but I have the feeling he sees his value as he's a top 5 player in France, scores goals at will, is one of the best young strikers who hasn't made his big move yet, he deserves and belongs with a top ~10 club in the world, so why settle for less? We talk so much about the high transfer value, but I think another important component of this is that there are very few teams David wants to play for.