FIFA rankings - why they are important and how to beat the system

[Floortom]

The last World Cup was the first where every single pot was determined based on FIFA rankings. I haven’t seen any announcement but would assume they would follow that methodology.

 

edit: you can see here the pots, fifa rankings and drawn groups 

https://simple.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_seeding

Edited December 29, 2021 by Floortom

[Free kick]

1 hour ago, Floortom said:

The last World Cup was the first where every single pot was determined based on FIFA rankings. I haven’t seen any announcement but would assume they would follow that methodology.

Thanks.   checking it out now.   

 

Edit:  indeed.   I stand corrected then.   The draw for WC 2018 was the one i missed.  Likely because it was the WC that (for me) garnered the least amount of interest going back to as long as i can recall.

Edited December 29, 2021 by Free kick

[Kyle_The_Hill]

Up to 36th after the win

[canadasoccer20]

1 hour ago, Kyle_The_Hill said:

Up to 36th after the win

Good to see! Results are so important now that we just about locked our spot in Qatar! Being in Pot 3 instead of Pot 4 would be huge for our chances of getting the easiest group possible for us.

[Lansdude]

Wonder if running the rest of the table makes pot 3 a lock. Seems probable and the outcome is very possible.

 

[TOCanada115]

Did the rough math. If we win on Wednesday against El Salvador, beat Jamaica, which will mostly be filled with MLS/Jamaican league players in March, and find a win in either Costa Rica or Panama (This will be very tough), we would move to about 29th, right around where South Korea is (3 wins, 1 draw). 
 

That would put us either at the very top of pot 4, or potentially last in pot 3. Depends on Afcon results/WCQ in CAF, UEFA playoffs (cheer for Scotland), and which team between Japan and Australia has to play a playoff to get in (cheer for Australia to get in directly). 

[Yoginess]

For what it’s worth, we’re 24th in the ELO Ratings

[TGAA_Star]

4 hours ago, TOCanada115 said:

Did the rough math. If we win on Wednesday against El Salvador, beat Jamaica, which will mostly be filled with MLS/Jamaican league players in March, and find a win in either Costa Rica or Panama (This will be very tough), we would move to about 29th, right around where South Korea is (3 wins, 1 draw). 
 

That would put us either at the very top of pot 4, or potentially last in pot 3. Depends on Afcon results/WCQ in CAF, UEFA playoffs (cheer for Scotland), and which team between Japan and Australia has to play a playoff to get in (cheer for Australia to get in directly). 

Which is why we are going to have to pay close attention to not only AFCON but also CAF World Cup playoffs in March. But also pay attention to UEFA World Cup playoffs in March also.

For AFCON, I'm hoping Senegal or Cameroon wins it.

Then CAF playoff 2 leg match ups you have

Cameroon vs Algeria

Senegal vs Egypt

Ghana vs Nigeria

Mali vs Tunisia 

Morocco vs DR Congo 

 

Then for UEFA playoffs 

Ukraine vs Scotland 

Wales vs Austria

Russia vs Poland 

Sweden vs Czech Republic 

Italy vs North Macedonia 

Portugal vs Turkey

 

But then for AFC playoffs, between Japan and Australia, I definitely wanna see Australia there but then Inter continental playoff they have to face 5th place South American team

 

This is just what awaits us Canadians pretty much 

[Miche]

Currently (w/ some assumptions):

Pot 1		Pot 2		Pot 3		Pot 4
Qatar	1437	Denmark	1654	Sweden	1588	South Korea	1516
Belgium	1828	Netherlands	1653	Wales	1578	Nigeria	1509
Brazil	1818	Germany	1648	Senegal	1566	Tunisia	1489
France	1786	Switzerland	1642	Peru	1566	Canada	1488
Argentina	1758	Mexico	1641	Iran	1565	Cameroon	1472
England	1755	USA	1637	Serbia	1547	Ecuador	1456
Italy	1740	Croatia	1620	Morocco	1547	Saudi Arabia	1444
Spain	1704	Uruguay	1605	Japan	1539	Panama	1382

 

Important to watch:

•Senegal / Egypt (1484): Best case: Egypt eliminiate Senegal in WCQ, but don't manage to pass us on pts. We want them to lose at AFCON asap.

•Cameroon / Algeria (1460): Best case: Algeria eliminate Cameroon in WCQ. If Cameroon win AFCON, they could pass us on pts.

•Nigeria / Morocco / Tunisia: Best case: any of these being eliminated, though we will likely pass Tunisia on pts anyway.

•Australia / Japan: Best case: Australia finishes second in their group ahead of Japan, and AFC only sends four. All eyes on March 24th!

•UEFA: Best case: Scotland (1471) advancing, and/or Russia (1493), Austria (1511), Czech Republic (1510) advancing and we manage to pass them on pts.

 

In summary, we need 4* from the following:

•we pass Tunisia on points

•1-2 dark horses from UEFA

•Australia passes Japan

•1+ upsets in CCAF

 

*@stryker911 points out below both intercontinentals might be bottom pot 4, so we may only need 3.

Edited February 1, 2022 by Miche

[Mattd97]

too bad we cant get the US as our pot 2 team

[TGAA_Star]

14 minutes ago, Miche said:

Currently (w/ some assumptions):

Pot 1		Pot 2		Pot 3		Pot 4
Qatar	1437	Denmark	1654	Sweden	1588	South Korea	1516
Belgium	1828	Netherlands	1653	Wales	1578	Nigeria	1509
Brazil	1818	Germany	1648	Senegal	1566	Tunisia	1489
France	1786	Switzerland	1642	Peru	1566	Canada	1488
Argentina	1758	Mexico	1641	Iran	1565	Cameroon	1472
England	1755	USA	1637	Serbia	1547	Ecuador	1456
Italy	1740	Croatia	1620	Morocco	1547	Saudi Arabia	1444
Spain	1704	Uruguay	1605	Japan	1539	Panama	1382

 

Important to watch:

•Senegal / Egypt (1484): Best case: Egypt eliminiate Senegal in WCQ, but don't manage to pass us on pts. We want them to lose at AFCON asap.

•Cameroon / Algeria (1460): Best case: Algeria eliminate Cameroon in WCQ. If Cameroon win AFCON, they could pass us on pts.

•Nigeria / Morocco / Tunisia: Best case: any of these being eliminated, though we will likely pass Tunisia on pts anyway.

•Australia / Japan: Best case: Australia finishes second in their group ahead of Japan, and AFC only sends four. All eyes on March 24th!

•UEFA: Best case: Scotland (1471) advancing, and/or Russia (1493), Austria (1511), Czech Republic (1510) advancing and we manage to pass them on pts.

 

In summary, we need 4 from the following:

•we pass Tunisia on points

•1-2 dark horses from UEFA

•Australia passes Japan

•1+ upsets in CAF

 

But Tunisia is facing Mali and honestly I can see Mali beating them to qualify 

Scotland have the easiest Path, Path A in UEFA playoffs to qualify...because they face Ukraine. If they beat Ukraine, they have to face either Wales or Austria. And then whoever wins that qualifies for Qatar.

I see Poland beating Russia and Sweden beating Czech Republic. Then Poland vs Sweden, I have Poland coming out of Path B.

As much as I want Australia, Japan they are in better form right now.

Cameroon vs Algeria could go either way

Morocco will beat DR Congo 

And my country of Ghana I have little to no faith in us beating Nigeria in the playoff.

[Unnamed Trialist]

So I am assuming that unless we draw Qatar, we are almost surely going to see two UEFA teams in the group stage? That is tough. 

Pot 3! (clap clap) Pot 3! (clap clap) Pot 3!

[IT20062021]

18 minutes ago, Miche said:

Currently (w/ some assumptions):

Pot 1		Pot 2		Pot 3		Pot 4
Qatar	1437	Denmark	1654	Sweden	1588	South Korea	1516
Belgium	1828	Netherlands	1653	Wales	1578	Nigeria	1509
Brazil	1818	Germany	1648	Senegal	1566	Tunisia	1489
France	1786	Switzerland	1642	Peru	1566	Canada	1488
Argentina	1758	Mexico	1641	Iran	1565	Cameroon	1472
England	1755	USA	1637	Serbia	1547	Ecuador	1456
Italy	1740	Croatia	1620	Morocco	1547	Saudi Arabia	1444
Spain	1704	Uruguay	1605	Japan	1539	Panama	1382

 

Important to watch:

•Senegal / Egypt (1484): Best case: Egypt eliminiate Senegal in WCQ, but don't manage to pass us on pts. We want them to lose at AFCON asap.

•Cameroon / Algeria (1460): Best case: Algeria eliminate Cameroon in WCQ. If Cameroon win AFCON, they could pass us on pts.

•Nigeria / Morocco / Tunisia: Best case: any of these being eliminated, though we will likely pass Tunisia on pts anyway.

•Australia / Japan: Best case: Australia finishes second in their group ahead of Japan, and AFC only sends four. All eyes on March 24th!

•UEFA: Best case: Scotland (1471) advancing, and/or Russia (1493), Austria (1511), Czech Republic (1510) advancing and we manage to pass them on pts.

 

In summary, we need 4 from the following:

•we pass Tunisia on points

•1-2 dark horses from UEFA

•Australia passes Japan

•1+ upsets in CAF

 

Thanks, great info.

Sometimes I wonder if pot 3 vs 4 is a real advantage. Looking at those teams, it seams to me they could all beat each other on a good day. It’s probably much more important for USA & Mexico to secure pot 2, that’s where the real difference is.

For us, the real significant game changer would be to catch Qatar, not only because they are weaker, but because we could be part of the first game of the tournament, where the whole world is watching. I believe for this to happen, we must be pot4.

[theaub]

6 hours ago, Yoginess said:

For what it’s worth, we’re 24th in the ELO Ratings

Honestly the ELO is the most wild part of this to me.  There is no doubt now that the Big 2 of CONCACAF is a Big 3.

[Stryker911]

1 hour ago, Miche said:

Currently (w/ some assumptions):

Pot 1		Pot 2		Pot 3		Pot 4
Qatar	1437	Denmark	1654	Sweden	1588	South Korea	1516
Belgium	1828	Netherlands	1653	Wales	1578	Nigeria	1509
Brazil	1818	Germany	1648	Senegal	1566	Tunisia	1489
France	1786	Switzerland	1642	Peru	1566	Canada	1488
Argentina	1758	Mexico	1641	Iran	1565	Cameroon	1472
England	1755	USA	1637	Serbia	1547	Ecuador	1456
Italy	1740	Croatia	1620	Morocco	1547	Saudi Arabia	1444
Spain	1704	Uruguay	1605	Japan	1539	Panama	1382

 

Important to watch:

•Senegal / Egypt (1484): Best case: Egypt eliminiate Senegal in WCQ, but don't manage to pass us on pts. We want them to lose at AFCON asap.

•Cameroon / Algeria (1460): Best case: Algeria eliminate Cameroon in WCQ. If Cameroon win AFCON, they could pass us on pts.

•Nigeria / Morocco / Tunisia: Best case: any of these being eliminated, though we will likely pass Tunisia on pts anyway.

•Australia / Japan: Best case: Australia finishes second in their group ahead of Japan, and AFC only sends four. All eyes on March 24th!

•UEFA: Best case: Scotland (1471) advancing, and/or Russia (1493), Austria (1511), Czech Republic (1510) advancing and we manage to pass them on pts.

 

In summary, we need 4 from the following:

•we pass Tunisia on points

•1-2 dark horses from UEFA

•Australia passes Japan

•1+ upsets in CAF

 

I pointed this out in another thread, but due to th intercontinental games being after the draw it likely mean they will be placed in Pot 4. So we will be ahead of 1 more South Amierican team. Also, we should be rooting for Panama to finish above the US or Mexico to put them in the intercontinental draw.

[TGAA_Star]

42 minutes ago, IT20062021 said:

Thanks, great info.

Sometimes I wonder if pot 3 vs 4 is a real advantage. Looking at those teams, it seams to me they could all beat each other on a good day. It’s probably much more important for USA & Mexico to secure pot 2, that’s where the real difference is.

For us, the real significant game changer would be to catch Qatar, not only because they are weaker, but because we could be part of the first game of the tournament, where the whole world is watching. I believe for this to happen, we must be pot4.

Imagine Qatar vs Canada A1 vs A2 in Group A in the Final Group Draw and we get Qatar in the opening game. I would definitely love that personally myself.

[Craig11rm]

I can’t wait to see us play a top 10 nation. I think many of our players are underrated, especially the ones playing in MLS. Johnston, Miller and Osorio could all be playing in top European leagues right now IMO. 

[Canucklehead69]

I guess we figured it that the best way to beat the FIFA rankings was to run train on everyone in concacaf

[Approve My Account Pls]

So I was taking a look at the remaining matches for US, Mexico, Panama, and Costa Rica and now I'm dreaming of a scenario where the Americans crash and burn to have Costa Rica overtake them for 4th place in the final match day. Can you imagine the scenes, especially after Greg spending all this week cheering for us to qualify?? It would be fucking incredible.

What would it take for this to happen:

- Panama and Mexico both take at least 5 pts in final 4 matches - however it requires both teams to beat the US putting them into second and third 

- USA lose to Panama, Mexico, and Costa Rica. We'll give them the win vs Honduras in this scenario because, let's be at least a little bit realistic here.

- Costa Rica take 9 pts in the final 4, only losing to us of course

That would see a final table of Canada, Mexico, Panama auto quali, Costa Rica to face New Zealand, and the Americans to be sent packing

A man can dream right?

[Free kick]

1 hour ago, TGAA_Star said:

Imagine Qatar vs Canada A1 vs A2 in Group A in the Final Group Draw and we get Qatar in the opening game. I would definitely love that personally myself.

You guys have to look at the history of the WC.   I have alluded to this before but,  having to play the tournament host is a terrible proposition at the group stage.  And I say that irrespective of the host stature, pedigree and ranking.   Its always in the tournaments/FIFA advantage to have the hosts at least advance.  Add to that you the home crowd advantage and you have a situation whereby you would be better off facing any of the top seven ranked sides in the world because those teams will always pick their spots in the group stage.  The tops sides will use the group stage to experiment and will focus their training and planning to peak at the knockout stage.  Hence you can steal points against them in the group stage but that wont happen with the tournament hosts.  

Briefly,  getting into the same group as Qatar would be the worst of the group we would want to get into.  

Edited January 31, 2022 by Free kick

[Lansdude]

1 hour ago, Canucklehead69 said:

I guess we figured it that the best way to beat the FIFA rankings was to run train on everyone in concacaf

One weird trick

[SoccMan]

1 hour ago, Craig11rm said:

I can’t wait to see us play a top 10 nation. I think many of our players are underrated, especially the ones playing in MLS. Johnston, Miller and Osorio could all be playing in top European leagues right now IMO. 

Yup sure they can , remember when Costa Rica topped a group with Uruguay, England and Italy they had MLS players too.

[chalms04]

1 hour ago, Approve My Account Pls said:

So I was taking a look at the remaining matches for US, Mexico, Panama, and Costa Rica and now I'm dreaming of a scenario where the Americans crash and burn to have Costa Rica overtake them for 4th place in the final match day. Can you imagine the scenes, especially after Greg spending all this week cheering for us to qualify?? It would be fucking incredible.

 

A man can dream right?

I would even settle for the US dropping to 4th and getting ousted by NZ.

[Approve My Account Pls]

10 minutes ago, chalms04 said:

I would even settle for the US dropping to 4th and getting ousted by NZ.

You could definitely sign me up for that outcome as well

[baulderdash77]

3 hours ago, Craig11rm said:

I can’t wait to see us play a top 10 nation. I think many of our players are underrated, especially the ones playing in MLS. Johnston, Miller and Osorio could all be playing in top European leagues right now IMO. 

Wasn’t the US a top 10 team when we played them?