FIFA rankings - why they are important and how to beat the system

[narduch]

We could possibly surpass Mexico and USA in the ELO rankings on Wednesday

[narduch]

Has FIFA even publicized how they will run the World Cup draw?

For all we know they go back to doing a 'region' based draw like they used to.

Also how are they going to handle the Intercontinental playoffs? Do those spots go directly into Pot 4?

I guess I could google this myself but I'm being lazy.

Edited February 1, 2022 by narduch

[CanadianSoccerFan]

You would have to think, if the ranking still used the old calculation from before 2017 we would be in the 10 to 20 range and looking at pot B.  The current calculation has a massive historical bias to it where teams are anchored in their historical position and hardly move unless they have a dramatic and sustained change in form like we have.  The US and Mexico have insurmountable leads over us in the ranking due to history, not current reality.    

[eramosat]

5 hours ago, Sal333 said:

I'm looking at the FIFA rankings and I'm questioning the validity of those rankings.

Questioning the validity of the FIFA rankings is both a long-held tradition by many, many people, as well as a business opportunity for those seeking to "optimize" rankings for clients.  Suffice to say, it can never, ever be perfect, whatever perfect is, and the methodology that's in place now is certainly not as bad as it has been in the recent past.  Rankings are a necessary and sometimes dumb evil.  So be it.

And Pot 4 or Pot 3, Canada will be a dangerous draw for teams looking to dominate us with a possession approach e.g. most of them.  Versus a tested defensive shell resilience + world-class(?) counterattack ability?  Sound familiar?  Qatar, when we make it, could be just be simply great because we made it...or it could be mind-blowing, because we also get results!

[Floortom]

16 minutes ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

You would have to think, if the ranking still used the old calculation from before 2017 we would be in the 10 to 20 range and looking at pot B.  The current calculation has a massive historical bias to it where teams are anchored in their historical position and hardly move unless they have a dramatic and sustained change in form like we have.  The US and Mexico have insurmountable leads over us in the ranking due to history, not current reality.    

I thought it was the opposite? from my understanding the new rankings were closer aligned to ELO and prioritized recency as opposed to years old results like the old rankings. Is that incorrect?

[Yoginess]

Yeah I’m going with all of Qatar as gravy. Maybe my expectations are too low but it was really NOT that long ago that all I asked was to make it to the final stage of qualifying.

[Free kick]

19 minutes ago, narduch said:

Has FIFA even publicized how they will run the World Cup draw?

For all we know they go back to doing a 'region' based draw like they used to.

Also how are they going to handle the Intercontinental playoffs? Do those spots go directly into Pot 4?

I guess I could google this myself but I'm being lazy.

It would not surprise if they announce all that in the week of the draw.   

[baulderdash77]

8 minutes ago, Floortom said:

I thought it was the opposite? from my understanding the new rankings were closer aligned to ELO and prioritized recency as opposed to years old results like the old rankings. Is that incorrect?

No it really solidified the rankings and it solidified Canada near it’s all time lowest ranking.

Had Canada been rated in the 70’s or 80’s when the systems changed, we would be solidly in the 20’s now.

The old system timed out the value of both historical wins and losses, so a bad cycle could rank your rating and a big cycle could propel your ratings.

Canada’s recent form at the Gold Cup, Nations League and especially World Cup Qualification, would have us much stronger.

 

 

[Free kick]

What i didnt like about the old system is that it was too easy to slot Asia and Concacaf in the same pot (ie.: 5+3 or 4+4).  This meant that Concacaf rarely got to play sides from Asia in group play.  Concacaf’s  record when they did Asian sides was good. 
 

what i liked about the old system is that it produced groups of deaths.  In other words unbalanced groups.  This produced a alot of suspense and drama during the draw.  The ranking system produced very balanced groups but was devoid of any drama and intrigue. Its made the event of the WC draw much more boring.  

Edited February 1, 2022 by Free kick

[CanadianSoccerFan]

18 minutes ago, Floortom said:

I thought it was the opposite? from my understanding the new rankings were closer aligned to ELO and prioritized recency as opposed to years old results like the old rankings. Is that incorrect?

No, the previous math prioritized recency.  It used to be the average of your points per game over a 4 year period with a weighting towards the most recent years.  It could produce massive swings like Wales going from #117 in pot 6 to ranked 8th and bumping Italy out of pot 1.  This swing angered FIFA and played a large part in the decision to change.  They don't want swings, they want the status quo.

With the current math, the points never fall off due to time, they only fall off from results.  The problem is that the point values are too low so nobody moves.  Teams generally stay in their immediate vicinity for eternity.  

[An Observer]

11 hours ago, IT20062021 said:

Thanks, great info.

Sometimes I wonder if pot 3 vs 4 is a real advantage. Looking at those teams, it seams to me they could all beat each other on a good day. It’s probably much more important for USA & Mexico to secure pot 2, that’s where the real difference is.

For us, the real significant game changer would be to catch Qatar, not only because they are weaker, but because we could be part of the first game of the tournament, where the whole world is watching. I believe for this to happen, we must be pot4.

I think its an advantage as I definitely would want to avoid the likes Sweden, Senegal and Serbia in favour of a Pot 4 side.  Of course, is a Japan much different than a Tunisia, probably not but being in Pot 3 means you likely avoid the risk of being in a Group of Death.

[eramosat]

12 minutes ago, baulderdash77 said:

No it really solidified the rankings and it solidified Canada near it’s all time lowest ranking.

Had Canada been rated in the 70’s or 80’s when the systems changed, we would be solidly in the 20’s now.

The old system timed out the value of both historical wins and losses, so a bad cycle could rank your rating and a big cycle could propel your ratings.

Canada’s recent form at the Gold Cup, Nations League and especially World Cup Qualification, would have us much stronger.

 

 

In other words...there is no more "points drop off after X years" calculation...you obtain (or lose) new points based on new match results, with very smart factors for quality of opponent/of importance of match/etc.  But yes, at the time FIFA moved to this method, the teams were seeded/given ranking points according to what was in place at the time, and it will take many years for that starting point to "smooth out".  Or ever, according to naysayers.  As i said before...rankings are a necessary and dumb evil

I think Canada is being treated fairly?  Check back in 1 year, and where we will stand at ~2 years of high quality results, and see what you think.

 

[Jedi Ram]

The last game of qualifying for all regions is March 30. 

Thursday March 31, FIFA will release the World Rankings.  Also on the same day, they will release the teams slotted in Pots 1 to 4.  It will be based on the World Rankings NOT by regions.  This excludes four teams who qualify for Inter-continental playoffs.

Exceptions: Qatar (Host) is in Pot 1 ... Inter-continental winners will be labeled as IC1 and IC2 in Pot 4 regardless of the world rankings.  At this point, it is not known which playoffs winner gets labelled IC1 or IC2 for AFC-CONMEBOL winner and CONCACAF-OFC winner.  I expect this to be announced on March 31.

Friday April 1 is the World Cup Draw held at Qatar in Euro prime time, which means afternoon / late mornings for us, Canadians.

[Kyle_The_Hill]

5 minutes ago, Jedi Ram said:

The last game of qualifying for all regions is March 30. 

Thursday March 31, FIFA will release the World Rankings.  Also on the same day, they will release the teams slotted in Pots 1 to 4.  It will be based on the World Rankings NOT by regions.  This excludes four teams who qualify for Inter-continental playoffs.

Exceptions: Qatar (Host) is in Pot 1 ... Inter-continental winners will be labeled as IC1 and IC2 in Pot 4 regardless of the world rankings.  At this point, it is not known which playoffs winner gets labelled IC1 or IC2 for AFC-CONMEBOL winner and CONCACAF-OFC winner.  I expect this to be announced on March 31.

Friday April 1 is the World Cup Draw held at Qatar in Euro prime time, which means afternoon / late mornings for us, Canadians.

Draw is April 3. Source on your other points?

[Jedi Ram]

2 hours ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

No, the previous math prioritized recency.  It used to be the average of your points per game over a 4 year period with a weighting towards the most recent years.  It could produce massive swings like Wales going from #117 in pot 6 to ranked 8th and bumping Italy out of pot 1.  This swing angered FIFA and played a large part in the decision to change.  They don't want swings, they want the status quo.

With the current math, the points never fall off due to time, they only fall off from results.  The problem is that the point values are too low so nobody moves.  Teams generally stay in their immediate vicinity for eternity.  

Initially when the rankings changed and came out in June 2018, there was obviously a lot of skepticism about how much the gap was between the teams.  While the formulas are similar between FIFA and ELO, the main difference is that ELO took the entire recorded history of all the games played, whereas FIFA started at certain time [they have not disclosed the exact point].  Another problem arose from the fact that the majority of the teams from regions were bunched up together.  Hence when teams from the same region play together tend not to lose or gain many points.  Thus, it is harder for countries to move up.  While Canada continues to win, as they get higher, the value of winning within CONCACAF lose significance unless we are playing top 3 countries.

[Jedi Ram]

4 minutes ago, Kyle_The_Hill said:

Draw is April 3. Source on your other points?

FIFA World Cup 2022 Group Stage Draw Date (Confirmed) (totalsportal.com)

world cup draw 2022 - Bing

[Kyle_The_Hill]

3 minutes ago, Jedi Ram said:

FIFA World Cup 2022 Group Stage Draw Date (Confirmed) (totalsportal.com)

world cup draw 2022 - Bing

Okay so no official confirmation since totalsportal is a blog with 47 followers.

[Jedi Ram]

2 minutes ago, Kyle_The_Hill said:

Okay so no official confirmation since totalsportal is a blog with 47 followers.

I guess Goal.com isn't good enough either...

[Kyle_The_Hill]

1 minute ago, Jedi Ram said:

I guess Goal.com isn't good enough either...

The bing link that if you click it brings you to another site? No it isn't lol

[CanadianTraveller]

Apologies if I'm posting in the wrong place (or if no one cares about Pot 3):

• FIFA has not made an official announcement on the draw. Expect that after Africa Cup of Nations, perhaps after the Olympics. UEFA says the draw is on April 3rd; that's the most definitive source I see.
• Those attending in Qatar may not want to see Canada in the opening match, as they'd have to fork over an extra $250 for the privilege. 
• If you want to have fun, visit https://stattosoftware.com/wc2022/. Simulates the draw, based on November's results so don't be offended by Canada's Pot 4 position. I got Belgium/Croatia/Japan/Canada in one click - I'd take that draw!
• If you want to assume that the draw Pots will be based solely on FIFA rankings, keep reading. At this time it's only an assumption that they'd do it similar/same to 2018; if there's a new system the rest of this post is irrelevant.
• There's no reason to assume that the interconfederation teams will be in Pot 4. First, we know the teams playing, so the ball could be labelled "Panama/New Zealand" just as easily as "IC1". That ball could be placed in Pot 4 since both teams have rankings that would put them in Pot 4. The other ball will have three teams whose rankings could put them in either Pot 2, maybe Pot 3, and certainly Pot 4 (thinking UAE - the likely loser to Australia/Japan sometime in...May? June?). We can assume this ball goes into Pot 4, but why would you put a Uruguay or Peru into Pot 4? Since the ball is likely to be labelled by confederation - to avoid two CONMEBOL/CONCACAF/AFC teams in the same Group - FIFA may choose to place this ball in Pot 3 to maximize fairness to the teams in the same Group. But they could punish the IC teams and put everyone in Pot 4. With the confederation labelling, my bet is Pot 3 especially if it's Uruguay/Japan/UAE.

The final FIFA rankings are becoming clearer. You need to project the best possible ranking points - i.e. assume a nation wins all remaining scheduled games. We'll assume there are no remaining friendlies, but I could see a Nigeria-Togo match or something similar if the 1.5 points made a difference. With the draw in early April, based on FIFA rankings on March 31 (I assume), not much time for anyone to schedule something.

Canada is projected to have 1529.6 based on today's rankings for its opponents. If CRC/JAM/PAN wins upcoming WCQ games, Canada might get to 1530. If those teams lose before playing us, Canada might only get to 1529.

That puts us in 25th place if all of the favourites win. Nigeria is projected at around 1528.75 with two wins over Ghana. I'm not certain Canada (w/ 4 wins) will finish ahead of Nigeria (w/ 2 wins) but I think we're safe. It's super close. Someone w/ time can calculate Canada points based on losses by CRC/JAM/PAN. For now, let's assume we edge out Nigeria & FIFA doesn't manipulate the system to favor African nations at the last second. Thank you to Tunisia and Algeria for failing miserably at Cup of Nations and dropping behind Canada.

Unfortunately 25th puts us in Pot 4. And Cameroon or Egypt could move past us this week. We need at least two of the following to occur - three if CONMEBOL/AFC IC is placed in Pot 3:

• Egypt to beat Senegal & lose at least one game - either in Africa Cup of Nations or one of the two games vs. Senegal. Or two draws. Maybe a draw and a penalty shootout win in AFCON;
• Cameroon to lose a match - any AFCON/WCQ match will do. A draw in WCQ might also work. Tunisia has to draw/lose as often as Canada does if they defeat Cameroon in WCQ;
• DR Congo beats Morocco;
• Russia to qualify, if Canada wins out. Slim chance Canada finishes ahead w/ a draw & Russia winning on penalties;
• Scotland to qualify, with only 1 Canada loss or 2 draws; 
• Australia to qualify directly, beating Japan;
• Japan having one more loss or two more draws than Canada has in its remaining games. A draw costs 12.5 ranking points; a loss costs 25 points vs. the points a team gets for a win (e.g. +10 win, -2.5 tie, -15 loss);
• Korea having one more draw or one more loss than Canada has in its remaining games;
• Italy and Portugal failing to qualify; 
• and don't forget we have to finish ahead of Nigeria if they qualify. And Ecuador needs to qualify directly - a draw vs. Peru should get the job done.

If Canada draws one of its final four contests, we need Japan or Korea to lose, or Australia/Russia/Cameroon to draw, plus two of the other scenarios. If we lose, Japan/Korea need to lose and draw. In other words...4 wins or likely Pot 4 for Canada.

Best chance: AFC qualifying. Japan hosts Saudi in a few hours; Australia hosts Japan in the 2nd last game. South Korea hosts Iran. And Australia has to visit Saudi in the last match perhaps only needing a draw. A reasonable chance one of Japan or Korea doesn't win out, plus Cameroon losing in AFCON. But getting three of the above results? If there's a simulation, I'm guessing there's less than a 5% chance of getting to #23. Will it matter what our FIFA ranking is on March 31...?

Does it matter which pot Canada is in? A bit - I'd rather play any of teams in Pot 4 (except for a Uruguay/Peru) before the teams in Pot 3 - maybe Morocco would be OK.

For reference:

Pot 1: Qatar, Belgium, Brazil, France, Argentina, England, Italy/Portugal, Spain
Pot 2: Denmark, Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland, Mexico, USA, Croatia, CONMEBOL 4 (Uruguay/Peru)
Pot 3: UEFA 1 (SWE, POL, CZE), UEFA 2 (WAL/UKR/AUT), Senegal*, Iran, Serbia, Morocco*, Japan**, Korea
Pot 4: Canada, Nigeria***, (Russia), (Tunisia), (Egypt), Algeria/Cameroon, (Scotland), (Australia), Ecuador, Saudi Arabia, InterConfed1/2

[Miche]

Avoid the group of death?

AVOID THE GROUP OF DEATH??

 

 

[Unnamed Trialist]

1 hour ago, CanadianTraveller said:

Apologies if I'm posting in the wrong place (or if no one cares about Pot 3):

• FIFA has not made an official announcement on the draw. Expect that after Africa Cup of Nations, perhaps after the Olympics. UEFA says the draw is on April 3rd; that's the most definitive source I see.
• Those attending in Qatar may not want to see Canada in the opening match, as they'd have to fork over an extra $250 for the privilege. 
• If you want to have fun, visit https://stattosoftware.com/wc2022/. Simulates the draw, based on November's results so don't be offended by Canada's Pot 4 position. I got Belgium/Croatia/Japan/Canada in one click - I'd take that draw!
• If you want to assume that the draw Pots will be based solely on FIFA rankings, keep reading. At this time it's only an assumption that they'd do it similar/same to 2018; if there's a new system the rest of this post is irrelevant.
• There's no reason to assume that the interconfederation teams will be in Pot 4. First, we know the teams playing, so the ball could be labelled "Panama/New Zealand" just as easily as "IC1". That ball could be placed in Pot 4 since both teams have rankings that would put them in Pot 4. The other ball will have three teams whose rankings could put them in either Pot 2, maybe Pot 3, and certainly Pot 4 (thinking UAE - the likely loser to Australia/Japan sometime in...May? June?). We can assume this ball goes into Pot 4, but why would you put a Uruguay or Peru into Pot 4? Since the ball is likely to be labelled by confederation - to avoid two CONMEBOL/CONCACAF/AFC teams in the same Group - FIFA may choose to place this ball in Pot 3 to maximize fairness to the teams in the same Group. But they could punish the IC teams and put everyone in Pot 4. With the confederation labelling, my bet is Pot 3 especially if it's Uruguay/Japan/UAE.

The final FIFA rankings are becoming clearer. You need to project the best possible ranking points - i.e. assume a nation wins all remaining scheduled games. We'll assume there are no remaining friendlies, but I could see a Nigeria-Togo match or something similar if the 1.5 points made a difference. With the draw in early April, based on FIFA rankings on March 31 (I assume), not much time for anyone to schedule something.

Canada is projected to have 1529.6 based on today's rankings for its opponents. If CRC/JAM/PAN wins upcoming WCQ games, Canada might get to 1530. If those teams lose before playing us, Canada might only get to 1529.

That puts us in 25th place if all of the favourites win. Nigeria is projected at around 1528.75 with two wins over Ghana. I'm not certain Canada (w/ 4 wins) will finish ahead of Nigeria (w/ 2 wins) but I think we're safe. It's super close. Someone w/ time can calculate Canada points based on losses by CRC/JAM/PAN. For now, let's assume we edge out Nigeria & FIFA doesn't manipulate the system to favor African nations at the last second. Thank you to Tunisia and Algeria for failing miserably at Cup of Nations and dropping behind Canada.

Unfortunately 25th puts us in Pot 4. And Cameroon or Egypt could move past us this week. We need at least two of the following to occur - three if CONMEBOL/AFC IC is placed in Pot 3:

• Egypt to beat Senegal & lose at least one game - either in Africa Cup of Nations or one of the two games vs. Senegal. Or two draws. Maybe a draw and a penalty shootout win in AFCON;
• Cameroon to lose a match - any AFCON/WCQ match will do. A draw in WCQ might also work. Tunisia has to draw/lose as often as Canada does if they defeat Cameroon in WCQ;
• DR Congo beats Morocco;
• Russia to qualify, if Canada wins out. Slim chance Canada finishes ahead w/ a draw & Russia winning on penalties;
• Scotland to qualify, with only 1 Canada loss or 2 draws; 
• Australia to qualify directly, beating Japan;
• Japan having one more loss or two more draws than Canada has in its remaining games. A draw costs 12.5 ranking points; a loss costs 25 points vs. the points a team gets for a win (e.g. +10 win, -2.5 tie, -15 loss);
• Korea having one more draw or one more loss than Canada has in its remaining games;
• Italy and Portugal failing to qualify; 
• and don't forget we have to finish ahead of Nigeria if they qualify. And Ecuador needs to qualify directly - a draw vs. Peru should get the job done.

If Canada draws one of its final four contests, we need Japan or Korea to lose, or Australia/Russia/Cameroon to draw, plus two of the other scenarios. If we lose, Japan/Korea need to lose and draw. In other words...4 wins or likely Pot 4 for Canada.

Best chance: AFC qualifying. Japan hosts Saudi in a few hours; Australia hosts Japan in the 2nd last game. South Korea hosts Iran. And Australia has to visit Saudi in the last match perhaps only needing a draw. A reasonable chance one of Japan or Korea doesn't win out, plus Cameroon losing in AFCON. But getting three of the above results? If there's a simulation, I'm guessing there's less than a 5% chance of getting to #23. Will it matter what our FIFA ranking is on March 31...?

Does it matter which pot Canada is in? A bit - I'd rather play any of teams in Pot 4 (except for a Uruguay/Peru) before the teams in Pot 3 - maybe Morocco would be OK.

For reference:

Pot 1: Qatar, Belgium, Brazil, France, Argentina, England, Italy/Portugal, Spain
Pot 2: Denmark, Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland, Mexico, USA, Croatia, CONMEBOL 4 (Uruguay/Peru)
Pot 3: UEFA 1 (SWE, POL, CZE), UEFA 2 (WAL/UKR/AUT), Senegal*, Iran, Serbia, Morocco*, Japan**, Korea
Pot 4: Canada, Nigeria***, (Russia), (Tunisia), (Egypt), Algeria/Cameroon, (Scotland), (Australia), Ecuador, Saudi Arabia, InterConfed1/2

Hire this guy! 

[eramosat]

2 hours ago, CanadianTraveller said:

Apologies if I'm posting in the wrong place (or if no one cares about Pot 3):

• FIFA has not made an official announcement on the draw. Expect that after Africa Cup of Nations, perhaps after the Olympics. UEFA says the draw is on April 3rd; that's the most definitive source I see.
• Those attending in Qatar may not want to see Canada in the opening match, as they'd have to fork over an extra $250 for the privilege. 
• If you want to have fun, visit https://stattosoftware.com/wc2022/. Simulates the draw, based on November's results so don't be offended by Canada's Pot 4 position. I got Belgium/Croatia/Japan/Canada in one click - I'd take that draw!
• If you want to assume that the draw Pots will be based solely on FIFA rankings, keep reading. At this time it's only an assumption that they'd do it similar/same to 2018; if there's a new system the rest of this post is irrelevant.
• There's no reason to assume that the interconfederation teams will be in Pot 4. First, we know the teams playing, so the ball could be labelled "Panama/New Zealand" just as easily as "IC1". That ball could be placed in Pot 4 since both teams have rankings that would put them in Pot 4. The other ball will have three teams whose rankings could put them in either Pot 2, maybe Pot 3, and certainly Pot 4 (thinking UAE - the likely loser to Australia/Japan sometime in...May? June?). We can assume this ball goes into Pot 4, but why would you put a Uruguay or Peru into Pot 4? Since the ball is likely to be labelled by confederation - to avoid two CONMEBOL/CONCACAF/AFC teams in the same Group - FIFA may choose to place this ball in Pot 3 to maximize fairness to the teams in the same Group. But they could punish the IC teams and put everyone in Pot 4. With the confederation labelling, my bet is Pot 3 especially if it's Uruguay/Japan/UAE.

The final FIFA rankings are becoming clearer. You need to project the best possible ranking points - i.e. assume a nation wins all remaining scheduled games. We'll assume there are no remaining friendlies, but I could see a Nigeria-Togo match or something similar if the 1.5 points made a difference. With the draw in early April, based on FIFA rankings on March 31 (I assume), not much time for anyone to schedule something.

Canada is projected to have 1529.6 based on today's rankings for its opponents. If CRC/JAM/PAN wins upcoming WCQ games, Canada might get to 1530. If those teams lose before playing us, Canada might only get to 1529.

That puts us in 25th place if all of the favourites win. Nigeria is projected at around 1528.75 with two wins over Ghana. I'm not certain Canada (w/ 4 wins) will finish ahead of Nigeria (w/ 2 wins) but I think we're safe. It's super close. Someone w/ time can calculate Canada points based on losses by CRC/JAM/PAN. For now, let's assume we edge out Nigeria & FIFA doesn't manipulate the system to favor African nations at the last second. Thank you to Tunisia and Algeria for failing miserably at Cup of Nations and dropping behind Canada.

Unfortunately 25th puts us in Pot 4. And Cameroon or Egypt could move past us this week. We need at least two of the following to occur - three if CONMEBOL/AFC IC is placed in Pot 3:

• Egypt to beat Senegal & lose at least one game - either in Africa Cup of Nations or one of the two games vs. Senegal. Or two draws. Maybe a draw and a penalty shootout win in AFCON;
• Cameroon to lose a match - any AFCON/WCQ match will do. A draw in WCQ might also work. Tunisia has to draw/lose as often as Canada does if they defeat Cameroon in WCQ;
• DR Congo beats Morocco;
• Russia to qualify, if Canada wins out. Slim chance Canada finishes ahead w/ a draw & Russia winning on penalties;
• Scotland to qualify, with only 1 Canada loss or 2 draws; 
• Australia to qualify directly, beating Japan;
• Japan having one more loss or two more draws than Canada has in its remaining games. A draw costs 12.5 ranking points; a loss costs 25 points vs. the points a team gets for a win (e.g. +10 win, -2.5 tie, -15 loss);
• Korea having one more draw or one more loss than Canada has in its remaining games;
• Italy and Portugal failing to qualify; 
• and don't forget we have to finish ahead of Nigeria if they qualify. And Ecuador needs to qualify directly - a draw vs. Peru should get the job done.

If Canada draws one of its final four contests, we need Japan or Korea to lose, or Australia/Russia/Cameroon to draw, plus two of the other scenarios. If we lose, Japan/Korea need to lose and draw. In other words...4 wins or likely Pot 4 for Canada.

Best chance: AFC qualifying. Japan hosts Saudi in a few hours; Australia hosts Japan in the 2nd last game. South Korea hosts Iran. And Australia has to visit Saudi in the last match perhaps only needing a draw. A reasonable chance one of Japan or Korea doesn't win out, plus Cameroon losing in AFCON. But getting three of the above results? If there's a simulation, I'm guessing there's less than a 5% chance of getting to #23. Will it matter what our FIFA ranking is on March 31...?

Does it matter which pot Canada is in? A bit - I'd rather play any of teams in Pot 4 (except for a Uruguay/Peru) before the teams in Pot 3 - maybe Morocco would be OK.

For reference:

Pot 1: Qatar, Belgium, Brazil, France, Argentina, England, Italy/Portugal, Spain
Pot 2: Denmark, Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland, Mexico, USA, Croatia, CONMEBOL 4 (Uruguay/Peru)
Pot 3: UEFA 1 (SWE, POL, CZE), UEFA 2 (WAL/UKR/AUT), Senegal*, Iran, Serbia, Morocco*, Japan**, Korea
Pot 4: Canada, Nigeria***, (Russia), (Tunisia), (Egypt), Algeria/Cameroon, (Scotland), (Australia), Ecuador, Saudi Arabia, InterConfed1/2

This is a good place to post that, thank you.

FYI, that simulator is quite fun/addictive.  Really makes you think about who the opponents might be, and the variety of outcomes from all the other federations.  I saw Turkey...I saw Mali...I even saw the Solomon Islands.

And Canada makes it into Pot 3 often enough to want to believe in it happening.

[Snowcrash]

11 hours ago, SthMelbRed said:

Yes. Clubs pay all the time to release managers from existing contracts. However, the figure you're suggesting is ridiculous.

Only scenario where that happens, and it's still like a million to one shot, is Newcastle gets relegated and Herdman blows the minds of the Saudi owners if he gets an interview.

[Sal333]

The first simulator try and this is what I got. Canada in pot 3:

Spain

Germany

Canada

Australia

The second try Canada in pot 4

England 

Denmark

Egypt

Canada

Which outcome would you prefer?

Edited February 1, 2022 by Sal333