FIFA rankings - why they are important and how to beat the system

[Yoginess]

I would be happy with 4 points if it’s 3 against CR

[Kent]

On 10/15/2021 at 8:01 PM, ardsa said:

As a pedantic person I have to note that MEX match numbers are not correct. FIFA points are calculated following each match and the both MEX and CAN will have a different point total than you used before the second match of the window. The numbers will be close, but if you are attempting the be precise you need to simulate on a match by match basis.

This is true, but based on what I found back when I was crunching my own numbers, the difference is miniscule. Like it might not even change the tenth of a point column. The difference between using the "start of window" number vs the "1 game later" number is definitely in the fraction of a point, rather than a full point kind of scale. Especially with the massive assumption/approximation of all other countries staying at the same point level, it doesn't matter one bit.

Edited October 18, 2021 by Kent
I don't know what "nubers" are, so I changed it to "numbers".

[ardsa]

3 hours ago, Kent said:

This is true, but based on what I found back when I was crunching my own nubers, the difference is miniscule. Like it might not even change the tenth of a point column. The difference between using the "start of window" number vs the "1 game later" number is definitely in the fraction of a point, rather than a full point kind of scale. Especially with the massive assumption/approximation of all other countries staying at the same point level, it doesn't matter one bit.

Very true.

It is interesting that starting in the April 2021 rankings FIFA moved to keep 2 decimals on their points. I had my spreadsheet going to to track Canada's pursuit on 6th spot in CONCACAF with the earlier WCQ schedule. Without retaining a few decimal points some friendly games would become almost meaningless when the points were rounded.

[jtpc]

Looking forward to seeing tomorrow morning's ranking update!

Thursday mornings have had a good track record lately. Last week there was the high from the victory over Panama, and tomorrow there's the November pre-sale and a ranking update. 😀

[theaub]

[Unnamed Trialist]

13 minutes ago, theaub said:

Stevenage here we come! 

[ShralpShralpShral]

Laryea and Johnston's agents better get to work.

[RS]

1 hour ago, theaub said:

Will be nice to see Canada and Costa Rica swap places when the next rankings are released.

[costarg]

32nd on ELO!  +27 places in a year!

[Unnamed Trialist]

9 hours ago, ShralpShralpShral said:

Laryea and Johnston's agents better get to work.

I'd add Eustaquio, if he is not going to be picked up by any of the better teams in Portugal.

[Metro]

43 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

I'd add Eustaquio, if he is not going to be picked up by any of the better teams in Portugal.

...and Kaye.

[jonovision]

5 minutes ago, Metro said:

...and Kaye.

Clock's ticking for guys like Laryea and Kaye to make a move, if they ever do or that's what they want. Mid-20s is a soccer player's peak.

[youllneverwalkalone]

First we take Manhattan, then we take Berlin...

 

[Unnamed Trialist]

35 minutes ago, jonovision said:

Clock's ticking for guys like Laryea and Kaye to make a move, if they ever do or that's what they want. Mid-20s is a soccer player's peak.

Osorio has the quality, clearly, but he's on a much higher salary, making a move harder, say to Championship. 

Miller is another player who is far underpaid and will have to have a talk with his agent. If we make Qatar I think he would be our lowest paid roster member and one of the lowest in the entire tournament. And yes, I'm slowly coming around to Miller. 

Edited October 21, 2021 by Unnamed Trialist

[jonovision]

12 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Osorio has the quality, clearly, but he's on a much higher salary, making a move harder, say to Championship. 

Miller is another player who is far underpaid and will have to have a talk with his agent. If we make Qatar I think he would be our lowest paid roster member and one of the lowest in the entire tournament. And yes, I'm slowly coming around to Miller. 

I share your slowly growing appreciation for Miller. 

Osorio is almost 30 and I would be surprised to see him make a move to a big European club. He is a top MLS player (among the non-DPs) and that's a pretty decent caliber nowadays.

[Infernal]

 

[Approve My Account Pls]

17 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Osorio has the quality, clearly, but he's on a much higher salary, making a move harder, say to Championship. 

 

17 minutes ago, jonovision said:

Osorio is almost 30 and I would be surprised to see him make a move to a big European club. He is a top MLS player (among the non-DPs) and that's a pretty decent caliber nowadays.

 I feel like it could be possible to see Osorio to go to the Championship. From a money perspective, Oso makes just under 800k USD per year. An article I found from this year puts the average championship player for the 21/22 season at 35k pounds (just shy of 50k USD) per week. Now I'm not sure how many weeks per year these guys are paid for, but if we play it safe and say 40 weeks a year, that comes out to roughly $2M USD per year, over double what Oso is currently making (780k USD). He could definitely play on a top half Championship club in my eyes, surely there's a team that would take a chance on him at even slightly below average salary, which would still be a pay rise compared to his salary with TFC.

As far as from a personal level, he signed his last extension when TFC still looked to challenge for the CCL and MLS. That's obviously no longer the case and at 29, this may be his last opportunity to make that move to Europe, which he has stated in the past was a goal of his. 

Idk, maybe someone could point out if my info is wrong here, but I don't think we should be so quick to rule out an Osorio move in Jan or this summer.

[Corazon]

21 minutes ago, Approve My Account Pls said:

 

 I feel like it could be possible to see Osorio to go to the Championship. From a money perspective, Oso makes just under 800k USD per year. An article I found from this year puts the average championship player for the 21/22 season at 35k pounds (just shy of 50k USD) per week. Now I'm not sure how many weeks per year these guys are paid for, but if we play it safe and say 40 weeks a year, that comes out to roughly $2M USD per year, over double what Oso is currently making (780k USD). He could definitely play on a top half Championship club in my eyes, surely there's a team that would take a chance on him at even slightly below average salary, which would still be a pay rise compared to his salary with TFC.

As far as from a personal level, he signed his last extension when TFC still looked to challenge for the CCL and MLS. That's obviously no longer the case and at 29, this may be his last opportunity to make that move to Europe, which he has stated in the past was a goal of his. 

Idk, maybe someone could point out if my info is wrong here, but I don't think we should be so quick to rule out an Osorio move in Jan or this summer.

I would love to see this happen but he may be comfortable at home in Toronto.  I figured the salaries would be similar but it sounds like Championship would still be a pay raise.  I do know that he hired a new agency to represent him in the past 18 months or so.  From what I remember, the agency had a high number of players playing in Europe, many in the Netherlands if I'm not mistaken.

The one thing that might concern me with all these MLSer's going to Europe is that we are 14 months from Qatar and if Canada qualifies, you definitely want to be playing regularly with your club these next 12 months.  Adekugbe has made a nice transition to Turkey this season but you can see what can happens if it doesn't work out like Corbeanu is going through right now.  Yes, Corbeanu is much younger than many of these MLSer's but there is always a risk when joining a new team, particularly when your going to a higher level.

[youllneverwalkalone]

1 hour ago, jonovision said:

I share your slowly growing appreciation for Miller. 

Osorio is almost 30 and I would be surprised to see him make a move to a big European club. He is a top MLS player (among the non-DPs) and that's a pretty decent caliber nowadays.

Doesn't Spain love themselves some over 30s? Would Oso have any back door means to get there with his Colombia connection? Mallorca anyone? Not a big club, but a big personal challenge that would keep him in top form for us.

[Onelessstar]

40 minutes ago, Approve My Account Pls said:

 

 I feel like it could be possible to see Osorio to go to the Championship. From a money perspective, Oso makes just under 800k USD per year. An article I found from this year puts the average championship player for the 21/22 season at 35k pounds (just shy of 50k USD) per week. Now I'm not sure how many weeks per year these guys are paid for, but if we play it safe and say 40 weeks a year, that comes out to roughly $2M USD per year, over double what Oso is currently making (780k USD). He could definitely play on a top half Championship club in my eyes, surely there's a team that would take a chance on him at even slightly below average salary, which would still be a pay rise compared to his salary with TFC.

As far as from a personal level, he signed his last extension when TFC still looked to challenge for the CCL and MLS. That's obviously no longer the case and at 29, this may be his last opportunity to make that move to Europe, which he has stated in the past was a goal of his. 

Idk, maybe someone could point out if my info is wrong here, but I don't think we should be so quick to rule out an Osorio move in Jan or this summer.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/footballleaguefc.com/swansea-city-2019-20-player-wages/

That weekly pay estimate seems pretty high... especially for a North American entering a mid to upper-table Championship side. 

Looking at Swansea City (Up the Swans, YJB!) who are a mid to upper-table Championship squad -- albeit fairly skint -- they had one player (Andre Ayew £75k) making above £35k last season. Even former Premier League players (Routledge, Fulton, Naughton) were nowhere near that on the wage bill (£9k-£20k). 

Not sure what Paul Arriola or Jordan Morris were on at Swans. I imagine Osorio would be (maybe) comparable to Matt Grimes' pay packet (£12.5 weekly).... even that pay is for a known Championship commodity. I wonder if that would make sense to either side?

"And we were singing Hymns and Arias...."

[Approve My Account Pls]

31 minutes ago, Corazon said:

I would love to see this happen but he may be comfortable at home in Toronto.  I figured the salaries would be similar but it sounds like Championship would still be a pay raise.  I do know that he hired a new agency to represent him in the past 18 months or so.  From what I remember, the agency had a high number of players playing in Europe, many in the Netherlands if I'm not mistaken.

The one thing that might concern me with all these MLSer's going to Europe is that we are 14 months from Qatar and if Canada qualifies, you definitely want to be playing regularly with your club these next 12 months.  Adekugbe has made a nice transition to Turkey this season but you can see what can happens if it doesn't work out like Corbeanu is going through right now.  Yes, Corbeanu is much younger than many of these MLSer's but there is always a risk when joining a new team, particularly when your going to a higher level.

I can appreciate that perspective, if he's comfortable at home than this is all discussion for the sake of discussion. I remember him expressing the goal to play abroad before, and the change in agency would definitely suggest he still has those aspirations.

Obviously with any player transferring there's a worry about integration into a new team, the same argument could be made for Johnston, Miller, Eustaquio, Laryea, or any of the others we're hoping will take next steps in their career, but in my opinion thats not a reason to not take that risk. From Osorio's perspective there's two things I think to consider: 1) I think it's safe to assume that he is a core MNT player and it would take quite the downfall for him not to be in Herdman's final 23 2) I would be confident in saying if he doesn't make a move by the summer 22 window, it's unlikely he'll ever move abroad.

[Approve My Account Pls]

1 minute ago, Onelessstar said:

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/footballleaguefc.com/swansea-city-2019-20-player-wages/

That weekly pay estimate seems pretty high... especially for a North American entering a mid to upper-table Championship side. 

Looking at Swansea City (Up the Swans, YJB!) who are a mid to upper-table Championship squad -- albeit fairly skint -- they had one player (Andre Ayew £75k) making above £35k last season. Even former Premier League players (Routledge, Fulton, Naughton) were nowhere near that on the wage bill (£9k-£20k). 

Not sure what Paul Arriola or Jordan Morris were on at Swans. I imagine Osorio would be (maybe) comparable to Matt Grimes' pay packet (£12.5 weekly).... even that pay is for a known Championship commodity. I wonder if that would make sense to either side?

"And we were singing Hymns and Arias...."

Here's where I found the number, although I will admit I thought it was high when I saw it too: https://www.888sport.com/blog/football/championship/how-much-do-championship-football-players-get-paid

[Onelessstar]

It might be skewed by the "Andre Ayews" of the league but, definitely, many clubs are paying well above what Swans are paying so who knows? Shocking the return on investment that Stoke City is getting related to the wage bill.

[Unnamed Trialist]

13 hours ago, youllneverwalkalone said:

Doesn't Spain love themselves some over 30s? Would Oso have any back door means to get there with his Colombia connection? Mallorca anyone? Not a big club, but a big personal challenge that would keep him in top form for us.

Spain is an odd place and somehow, very tough for Canadians. 

First, despite evidence to the contrary, they won't easily sign a Canadian prospect, normally. De Guzman, then Ballou.

Then they'll pick up a Latino in a flash, including in 2nd division, some of those Panama players were in Spanish 2nd, like Alcorcón or Zaragoza. Maybe because they can fast-track citizenship. 

What especially I don't get is Eustaquio--he could walk into a La Liga side, a modest one, no question. 

Maybe our guys have agents lacking in some skills.

[Obinna]

1 hour ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Spain is an odd place and somehow, very tough for Canadians. 

First, despite evidence to the contrary, they won't easily sign a Canadian prospect, normally. De Guzman, then Ballou.

Then they'll pick up a Latino in a flash, including in 2nd division, some of those Panama players were in Spanish 2nd, like Alcorcón or Zaragoza. Maybe because they can fast-track citizenship. 

What especially I don't get is Eustaquio--he could walk into a La Liga side, a modest one, no question. 

Maybe our guys have agents lacking in some skills.

The strange thing about Eustaquio is that he shouldn't be suffering from the same anti-Canadian bias as the others, since he is from Iberian stock and even played in the Portuguese youth NT ranks.

He would be perfect for a modest Spanish or Italian side, but I remain confident he'll get the move he deserves. 

I assume he's got a European passport - how much does that count, you think? Do you think that would make him more appealing to Spanish clubs than the Latin Americans (pre-citizenship), or does their prospect of becoming Spanish citizens trump his already existing Portuguese citizenship?

Edited October 21, 2021 by Obinna