FIFA rankings - why they are important and how to beat the system

[ensco]

8 hours ago, Xavier. said:

 

Some of these percentages cannot be right.

The US for instance. They are away to Mexico and CR, and home to Panama.  There are lots of scenarios where they finish 4th, and a few where they finish 5th. They are probably going to Qatar, but are nowhere close to 98+% likely...

[Shway]

4 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Someone responding to this on the Twitter account wonders if canceling Guatemala may come back to hurt us. 

That person should know that training matches don’t get FIFA points.

[Unnamed Trialist]

27 minutes ago, Shway said:

That person should know that training matches don’t get FIFA points.

It depends if it was just called "training" but was in fact a friendly. We don't really know, don't think.

Sometimes these terms are used ambiguously, as a way of not having to worry about selling ticket and the like. We have had plenty of closed-door or near matches that were in fact official friendlies with FIFA points on the line, and with international referees appointed. 

[Approve My Account Pls]

45 minutes ago, ensco said:

Some of these percentages cannot be right.

The US for instance. They are away to Mexico and CR, and home to Panama.  There are lots of scenarios where they finish 4th, and a few where they finish 5th. They are probably going to Qatar, but are nowhere close to 98+% likely...

I think because it factors in the ELO ranks the simulations heavily favour the US (22) getting results over Panama (58) and Costa Rica (48). I'm sure the Panamanian and Costa Rican odds aren't helped by playing the ELO Giants of Canada. But I agree 98+% is high.

[Shway]

30 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

It depends if it was just called "training" but was in fact a friendly. We don't really know, don't think.

Yes we did know. 
https://www.canadasoccer.com/news/canada-to-face-guatemala-in-florida-ahead-of-fifa-world-cup-qualifiers/

[gigi riva]

with qualification pretty much in place , I want to see Canada go up the next level and play some Euro teams like a Switerland, Serbia, Sweden Denmark just to see where we do stack up . in prep for Qatar

[Sal333]

Just now, gigi riva said:

with qualification pretty much in place , I want to see Canada go up the next level and play some Euro teams like a Switerland, Serbia, Sweden Denmark just to see where we do stack up . in prep for Qatar

I'd even want to see a team or two from the top tier - like France, England or Spain.

[Jedi Ram]

3 hours ago, Cblake said:

Canada would loose points with a tie in Costa Rica I believe. 

Because of the rapid climb up the FIFA rankings, any draws or losses will lose points in the next three games.  So if we are to gun for Pot 3, then we must continue to win the remaining games.

[TGAA_Star]

42 minutes ago, gigi riva said:

with qualification pretty much in place , I want to see Canada go up the next level and play some Euro teams like a Switerland, Serbia, Sweden Denmark just to see where we do stack up . in prep for Qatar

All we need is a win or a draw against Costa Rica to qualify more or less

[archer21]

4 hours ago, baulderdash77 said:

Our chance at pot 3 relies on other team’s results as much as our own.  For sure we have to win out.  Besides that we’re counting on other results.

If Ghana or Scotland make it, we will be in Pot 3.

 

I don’t think it’s really that simple, but yes we do have to rely on other teams’ results. If Scotland make it, but Sweden make it over Russia (who the chart has in Pot 4), then we end up the top team in Pot 4 still. There are a lot of things that can still change, it’s still really early to say it comes down to whether this 1 or 2 teams do or do not qualify.

[TGAA_Star]

Just now, archer21 said:

I don’t think it’s really that simple, but yes we do have to rely on other teams’ results. If Scotland make it, but Sweden make it over Russia (who the chart has in Pot 4), then we end up the top team in Pot 4 still. There are a lot of things that can still change, it’s still really early to say it comes down to whether this 1 or 2 teams do or do not qualify.

Hoping both Ghana and Scotland make it but my country Ghana I have no faith in us beating Nigeria like at all.

Now Scotland on the other hand they are in a tournament like format to qualify out of UEFA...if they beat Ukraine at home, they face either Wales or Austria and whoever wins that qualifies for Qatar in the UEFA playoff. Scotland has a pretty easy Path in Path A.

[Obinna]

6 minutes ago, TGAA_Star said:

Hoping both Ghana and Scotland make it but my country Ghana I have no faith in us beating Nigeria like at all.

Now Scotland on the other hand they are in a tournament like format to qualify out of UEFA...if they beat Ukraine at home, they face either Wales or Austria and whoever wins that qualifies for Qatar in the UEFA playoff. Scotland has a pretty easy Path in Path A.

I don't have faith in you beating Nigeria either

[SpursFlu]

I came to this thread to ask questions.. looks like we people were way ahead of me. Thanks I'm getting ready for some way way outta town scoreboard watching 

[Miche]

Updated live rankings. Table's default is that higher seeds advance in qualifying.

Pot 1		Pot 2		Pot 3		Pot 4
Qatar	1437	Denmark	1654	Sweden	1588	Nigeria	1509
Belgium	1828	Netherlands	1653	Senegal	1581	Canada	1497
Brazil	1823	Germany	1648	Wales	1578	Tunisia	1489
France	1786	Mexico	1647	Iran	1572	Cameroon	1472
Argentina	1766	USA	1643	Serbia	1547	Ecuador	1458
England	1755	Switzerland	1642	Morocco	1547	Saudi Arabia	1433
Italy	1740	Croatia	1620	Japan	1549	Peru (IC)	1563
Spain	1704	Uruguay	1605	South Korea	1522	Panama (IC)	1375

 

Teams to watch:

•Tunisia / Mail: We've succesfully passed Tunisia on pts. We'll want to stay ahead, or they could get upset by Mali (1446).

•Senegal / Egypt: Egypt (1484) upsetting Senegal would be great, though Egypt could pass us on pts in doing so. We want them to lose in AFCON, and then upset Senegal.

•Cameroon / Algeria: Algeria (1460) upsetting Cameroon would be great, though it's possible we stay ahead of Cameroon on pts even if they win AFCON.

•Nigeria / Ghana: A Ghana (1381) upset would be great, otherwise it will be very close whether we can pass Nigeria on pts. We have three matches left while they have two.

•Morocco /DR Congo: DR Congo (1221) upset is unlikely.

•Australia / Japan: Japan's win and Australia's draw were unfortunate, makes it much harder for Australia to surpass them, but they pla each other in March.

•Scotland (1471) / Russia (1493): We are ahead of both, so either winning their playoff group would be great.

•Austria (1511) / Czech Rep (1510): We're unlikely to catch either on pts if they win their groups.

 

Will update again after AFCON.

[Allez les Rouges]

48 minutes ago, Miche said:

Updated live rankings. Table's default is that higher seeds advance in qualifying.

Pot 1		Pot 2		Pot 3		Pot 4
Qatar	1437	Denmark	1654	Sweden	1588	Nigeria	1509
Belgium	1828	Netherlands	1653	Senegal	1581	Canada	1497
Brazil	1823	Germany	1648	Wales	1578	Tunisia	1489
France	1786	Mexico	1647	Iran	1572	Cameroon	1472
Argentina	1766	USA	1643	Serbia	1547	Ecuador	1458
England	1755	Switzerland	1642	Morocco	1547	Saudi Arabia	1433
Italy	1740	Croatia	1620	Japan	1549	Peru (IC)	1563
Spain	1704	Uruguay	1605	South Korea	1522	Panama (IC)	1375

 

Teams to watch:

•Tunisia / Mail: We've succesfully passed Tunisia on pts. We'll want to stay ahead, or they could get upset by Mali (1446).

•Senegal / Egypt: Egypt (1484) upsetting Senegal would be great, though Egypt could pass us on pts in doing so. We want them to lose in AFCON, and then upset Senegal.

•Cameroon / Algeria: Algeria (1460) upsetting Cameroon would be great, though it's possible we stay ahead of Cameroon on pts even if they win AFCON.

•Nigeria / Ghana: A Ghana (1381) upset would be great, otherwise it will be very close whether we can pass Nigeria on pts. We have three matches left while they have two.

•Morocco /DR Congo: DR Congo (1221) upset is unlikely.

•Australia / Japan: Japan's win and Australia's draw were unfortunate, makes it much harder for Australia to surpass them, but they pla each other in March.

•Scotland (1471) / Russia (1493): We are ahead of both, so either winning their playoff group would be great.

•Austria (1511) / Czech Rep (1510): We're unlikely to catch either on pts if they win their groups.

 

Will update again after AFCON.

If AUT/CZE win their groups thanks to penalty shootouts, there is a chance that we pass them since winning in a shootout counts as 75% of a regular win.

[Kyle_The_Hill]

48 minutes ago, Allez les Rouges said:

If AUT/CZE win their groups thanks to penalty shootouts, there is a chance that we pass them since winning in a shootout counts as 75% of a regular win.

So to do for March:

1. Cheer for underdogs
2. Hope for penalty shootouts

I can do that

[Neil R.]

A potential silver lining to Costa Rica defeating Jamaica yesterday could be that their ranking points go a bit higher as a result of the victory, which would give us a fraction more should we defeat them on March 24th. 

[Kyle_The_Hill]

1 hour ago, Kyle_The_Hill said:

So to do for March:

1. Cheer for underdogs
2. Hope for penalty shootouts

I can do that

Starting early. Great work everyone.

[Yoginess]

8 hours ago, Cblake said:

Canada would loose points with a tie in Costa Rica I believe. 

I guess gone are they days where we could tie El Salvador and gain points. 
 

end of an era

[maplebanana]

Egypt wins in penalty kicks, which is a good result for us. They gain only 9.56 pts, which puts them still behind us. So we sit at #33 still in the live rankings.

Now we have to cheer for Senegal in the finals (i'm assuming we can't catch them anyway). 

[Joe Keeper]

17 hours ago, Allez les Rouges said:

Tonga withdrew due to the volcanic eruption...

I saw that a few hours after I posted. I feel for them. 

[gigi riva]

Instead of worrying about all these scenerios . Lets just concentrate on Costa Rica and Jamiaca and try aim for 4 points and guess what Qualification is  in our hands let Panama Mexico and Gods Country The USA scramble for there places 

[TGAA_Star]

16 hours ago, maplebanana said:

Egypt wins in penalty kicks, which is a good result for us. They gain only 9.56 pts, which puts them still behind us. So we sit at #33 still in the live rankings.

Now we have to cheer for Senegal in the finals (i'm assuming we can't catch them anyway). 

Definitely want Senegal to win AFCON

[Sal333]

16 hours ago, maplebanana said:

Egypt wins in penalty kicks, which is a good result for us. They gain only 9.56 pts, which puts them still behind us. So we sit at #33 still in the live rankings.

Now we have to cheer for Senegal in the finals (i'm assuming we can't catch them anyway). 

They were awarded 19.56 points. You're forgetting  the Africa Cup of Nations Playoffs are weighted at 40 points. Our CONCACA WC qualification are only weighted at 25 points. That's one of the reasons I think the FIFA rankings are utter bullshit. Egypt is ahead of us now.

https://football-ranking.com/fifa_rankings

 

Edited February 4, 2022 by Sal333

[archer21]

7 minutes ago, Sal333 said:

They were awarded 19.56 points. You're forgetting the African qualifications are worth more than the CONCACA qualifications. That's one of the reasons I think the FIFA rankings are utter bullshit.

It’s because it’s the knockout round of their confederation’s tournament. It would be the same for us in semis of Gold Cup.