FIFA rankings - why they are important and how to beat the system

[Addona]

28 minutes ago, Kyle_The_Hill said:

"Following the draw, a dramatic conclusion to the FIFA World Cup 2022 preliminary competition looms with the two intercontinental play-off matches to take place over a single leg on 13 and 14 June 2022" --> 2 pairings, single leg.

Also thanks for finally having the draw FIFA. Not sure why they waited 5 years to do it.

Darn ... would've liked our chances better over 2 legs ... I guess we're going to have to finish 3rd to avoid all of this! 

 

[Shway]

Finish 3rd, finish 4th….wth am I reading.

Clearly the goal is to finish first, and I believe we can!

The playoff talk is beyond me!

[Kent]

@Free kick's comments about the host nation got me curious. In 2018, Russia (the host of course) advanced out of the group, 2 of the other 7 top pot teams didn't get out of the group (Germany and Poland). In 2014 the pots were more regionally based.

South Africa in 2010 is the only host nation to ever not make it out of the first round.

Good point Free Kick!

[Free kick]

23 hours ago, Treppy2 said:

I totally get what you're saying, but I'd still like Canada's chances against #51 Qatar + possibly biased officiating more than their chances against any of the other seven opponents currently in Pot 1.

Other than Qatar, many of the teams in Pot 1 have aspirations of winning the whole thing.   In 1986, the top side in our group was France and they sleepwalked though the game and only beat us 1-0 on a goal in the 79th minute.   i saw some French documentaries on that game whereby it was mentioned often that they didn't take us seriously and it was a bit of a wake up call for them.  The subsequent games versus weaker Hun and Rus were not as close.   Plus, our 86 Cnd team was not talented at all and some of our better players were not in game shape to partake in the tournament.

You can go back to many WC's to see examples of how much heralded sides have done poorly in the group stage.  Italy won the 82 WC with 3 draws in the grp stage.  its very rare (if not never) to see top 10 sides get maximum points in the group stage. Time and time again, the favored sides just scrape by and advance.  And then we hear stories of how how terrible they are and how they are not going anywhere.  And then its one these sides that end up lifting the trophy.   Basically, they always give away point in the group stage. especially if you get them in the first game.   They're whole training plan,  focus and sights are on the knockout stage.   

Teams like CRC, the US and Mex have beaten or drawn at the WC many of the likes of Italy, England, Portugal, France etc etc in the group stage.  Why should it be any different for Canada?    Whereas the Hosts, especially if it one who doesn't have the reputation, name and history of successes, will set a goal to advance put all their focus on their group stage games.  Plus they will have the ref's on their side and everyone including FIFA will be rooting for them to advance.  They will be the only home team in the tourny and we saw how hard it is to win away games in concacaf;  winning in Qatar against Qatar would be more difficult that winning away against CRC, Hon, Pan, ES etc..... 

In my opinion, , assuming these sides qualify, getting  the likes Bra, Ita, Eng, Arg, Por, Esp would be better than facing Qatar (even if they're ranked 51st).  I suspect, that sides like Ger, Fra, Bel would take us more seriously because of the familiarity that they would have with some of our key players like Davies and David.   But as for the former,  factors like arrogance/over confidence as well as having an eye on the R16, makes them good target for us to surprise and get a point.  Then all we would have to do is get a win against a pot 3 team.  

Edited November 20, 2021 by Free kick

[rkomar]

When we started the qualification process, I thought that we would need to improve and legitimately move into the top 50 places in the world to avoid another goalless, winless, embarrassing result at the World Cup if we somehow qualified.  That seemed so far away from the 79'th position we were in then.  It seems like a dream that we have outdone even that, moving into 40'th place.  I don't want to wake up.

[TGAA_Star]

By being 40th in the world it helps us especially when we do qualify for Qatar because then we most likely get placed into Pot 3 but then at the same time with that Canada we could very well get placed into a Group of Death. It does often happen with Pot 3 teams but not all the time but pretty often.

 

But for us Canadians it will only be our 2nd World Cup appearance in 36 years (1986, 2022) which is what I'm salivating at. Stay up thinking about it. But I can only imagine what the 2022 FIFA World Cup Group Draw will be like. Why? Because I can imagine every Canadian will have their eyes glued to their TV sets especially when they are doing the Draw and former legends of the world game are picking balls out of the pots to reveal teams and which groups they will go into and also if they end up in the 1, 2, 3 or 4 slots

 

Which is why I hope should Canada qualify we get drawn with the hosts Qatar

[Neil R.]

Here is the final CONCACAF ranking update for 2021.

What an incredible year.

7th to 3rd in CONCACAF. 73rd to 40th in the FIFA rankings.

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

2 minutes ago, Neil R. said:

Here is the final CONCACAF ranking update for 2021.

What an incredible year.

7th to 3rd in CONCACAF. 73rd to 40th in the FIFA rankings.

There will be a FIFA ranking update on December 16th that will include some of the friendlies taking place this month.

[Jedi Ram]

3 hours ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

There will be a FIFA ranking update on December 16th that will include some of the friendlies taking place this month.

I heard it's December 23rd to include all the games in 2021 as there will be some games between December 16 and 23.  specifically include matches from FIFA Arab Cup and AFF Championships games.  

The inclusion of FIFA Arab Cup matches are very important as it would be used to seed for the 3rd round of CAF WCQ...unless CAF changes their rules again.

[CanadianSoccerFan]

It's ridiculous that FIFA doesn't make it a live ranking by the day.  Everyone just goes to third party sites to see where they stand after every game.

[GasPed]

While we're all hoping and praying we can somehow get into Pot 3 and get Qatar in our group, etc. it's interesting to think about what other countries might be hoping.  For instance, if I'm a Pot 1 or 2 country, I'm really hoping I don't get a Pot 4 monster like Canada in my group (i.e. ranked in Pot 4 but playing like Pot 2).  That could be Group of Death stuff right there.

[P-O]

Let's just get there. And enjoy it.

 

Who cares about who we end up playing.

 

The experience is needed for 2026.

 

[Mattd97]

On 11/20/2021 at 7:23 AM, TGAA_Star said:

 It does often happen with Pot 3 teams but not all the time but pretty often.

i dare say a pot 3 team ends up in the group of death every single tournament. and a pot 4 team. and a pot 2 team even a pot 1 team

[Kent]

3 hours ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

It's ridiculous that FIFA doesn't make it a live ranking by the day.  Everyone just goes to third party sites to see where they stand after every game.

Yeah, it's a legacy thing that doesn't make sense anymore, although I guess they probably like getting those monthly articles in the media about the new rankings. That would probably die if they just had live rankings, and as a result people would be a bit less aware of the rankings.

[Approve My Account Pls]

3 hours ago, Mattd97 said:

i dare say a pot 3 team ends up in the group of death every single tournament. and a pot 4 team. and a pot 2 team even a pot 1 team

Also typically a Group of Death is created by a strong pot 3 or pot 4 team to make lives hard for the other two teams. if anything, we will make the group a death group for the pot 1 and 2 teams expecting an easy ride. 

[Free kick]

35 minutes ago, Approve My Account Pls said:

Also typically a Group of Death is created by a strong pot 3 or pot 4 team to make lives hard for the other two teams. if anything, we will make the group a death group for the pot 1 and 2 teams expecting an easy ride. 

Another thing that makes a group of death is reputation.  Canada doesn't have a reputation and our successes this year have really flown under the radar outside of North America.   In many parts of of the planet,  they have never heard of Concacaf.   Therefore most of the world will look at whatever group that Canada is in and will immediately assume (rightly or wrongly) that we are the lightweight of the group.   Therefore, irrespective of who Canada is grouped it, it will never be viewed as a group of death even though it may actually be. 

Reputations are created at the WC Finals.  But we haven't been there in 35 years.  

Edited December 2, 2021 by Free kick

[GasPed]

12 hours ago, Free kick said:

Another thing that makes a group of death is reputation.  Canada doesn't have a reputation and our successes this year have really flown under the radar outside of North America.   In many parts of of the planet,  they have never heard of Concacaf.   Therefore most of the world will look at whatever group that Canada is in and will immediately assume (rightly or wrongly) that we are the lightweight of the group.   Therefore, irrespective of who Canada is grouped it, it will never be viewed as a group of death even though it may actually be. 

Reputations are created at the WC Finals.  But we haven't been there in 35 years.  

Totally true amongst the casual fans.  But if we win CONCACAF I'm pretty sure every Pot 1/2 team/coach/manager will be praying for Saudi Arabia rather than Canada in their Pot 4 ping pong ball. 

Edited December 2, 2021 by GasPed

[TGAA_Star]

5 hours ago, Free kick said:

Another thing that makes a group of death is reputation.  Canada doesn't have a reputation and our successes this year have really flown under the radar outside of North America.   In many parts of of the planet,  they have never heard of Concacaf.   Therefore most of the world will look at whatever group that Canada is in and will immediately assume (rightly or wrongly) that we are the lightweight of the group.   Therefore, irrespective of who Canada is grouped it, it will never be viewed as a group of death even though it may actually be. 

Reputations are created at the WC Finals.  But we haven't been there in 35 years.  

Exactly but that all changes in 2022 when we do qualify and 2026 when we host the event but then anything beyond that 2030 and onwards for future World Cups, you can almost expect Canada to qualify with there being 48 teams

[TOCanada115]

I think we might get a boost for our  attempt for pot 3. 
 

I saw someone post it on here earlier, but the draw is suppose to happen right after the March window. There’s basically no way that the teams playing in the intercontinental playoffs will all be ranked low enough that they will be in pot 4. 
 

So what I think is going to happen, is they will force the teams playing in it to automatically put in pot 4. Unless Panama, Bolivia, New Zealand, and United Arab Emirates are all involved, there will be at least 1 pot 3 ranked team involved (most likely from Asia, and South America). 

[TGAA_Star]

17 hours ago, P-O said:

Let's just get there. And enjoy it.

 

Who cares about who we end up playing.

 

The experience is needed for 2026.

 

Exactly and especially since we'll be in our own backyard but with that comes even more pressure especially when you're one of the hosts...you don't wanna be a South Africa in 2010 

[Free kick]

By my calculation (unless my spreadsheet and formulas are wrong) there is a possibility of getting 9 points with a win over Honduras.  that would mean we pass Hungary and draw level with Scotland. We would be fractionally behind Scotland,  one point behind Turkey and 6 points behind Nigeria. 

What most of us overlooked earlier, when assuming that getting into pot 3 was unrealistic, was the fact that many of these sides just ahead of us in the rankings are in the playoffs and hence will be eliminated and not be in any pots.  Only 3 of the 12 teams in the European playoffs will be at the WC and in any pots.  Ecuador is just behind Canada and sits 3rd in SA so one  or two of Uruguay, Columbia, Peru and Chile will likely not be in any pots.   

Edited December 29, 2021 by Free kick

[Cadeau]

On 12/1/2021 at 11:50 PM, Free kick said:

Another thing that makes a group of death is reputation.  Canada doesn't have a reputation and our successes this year have really flown under the radar outside of North America.   In many parts of of the planet,  they have never heard of Concacaf.   Therefore most of the world will look at whatever group that Canada is in and will immediately assume (rightly or wrongly) that we are the lightweight of the group.   Therefore, irrespective of who Canada is grouped it, it will never be viewed as a group of death even though it may actually be. 

Reputations are created at the WC Finals.  But we haven't been there in 35 years.  

Totally. I have a friend from Morocco at work who imigrated to Canada like 30 years ago and he can talk your ear off about soccer. And I remember 2 months ago telling him how the canadian Mens team is a great story in the making, that the team wasnt a joke etc and he kinda laughed it off. Well he laughs no more and hes on board now.

[Free kick]

By the way,  where is it written or what is the source for the notion that i am reading here that the FIFA rankings will determine the distribution of teams amongst all the pots?  I don't believe it.   For determining which team goes pot 1?  Yes, it makes sense to use the ranking system and they have always done this.  But it would be illogical, chaotic, confusing ect to stick teams into 4 pots entirely based on a ranking system and then draw the teams out of pots in front of billions of viewers while trying to respect the primary notion of fair distribution (of confederations) amongst groups.   They would have to be constantly having to draw teams out of the pots and have to constantly move teams from one group to another and,  to the uninitiated, the whole process would look confusing and suspicious and could lead to catastrophe. 

What I am sure will happen (like always) is that there will be blend of ranking and regional considerations.   Rankings will determine who goes to pot 1 and regional considerations will have to be respected, meaning that: 1)  you cant have more than 2 sides from Europe in each group  2) you cant have more than one side  in each group from the same confederation with respect to the non UEFA confederations.   What's the point of the world cup if the situation arises where you have 4 european teams in the same group?

Pot 1 will be Qatar and then the next seven based on Fifa rankings.   This will mean Bra, Arg and the top 5 in Europe.  (5+2+1)  

Pot 2 will consist of all the remaining euro sides that are not in Pot 1.   (8)

Pot 3 will logically group the five sides from Africa and the 3 South American sides that are not in pot 1 (5+3).  This assumes that the 5th SA side advances from the inter continental playoff.  If not, you could just state this as the winner of that AFC vs Conmebol playoff

Pot 4. Logically has be be Concacaf and Asia (4+4).  Or, the four auto qualified sides from Asia plus the three auto qualified sides from Concacaf plus the winner of the Concacaf and Oceania playoff. (4+3+1)

This way,  when they are pulling the balls out out of the bowl, they might (at most) have to move one or two (max) teams during the draw in order to respect regional distribution amongst groups. 

All this to say,  this pot 3 versus pot 4 stuff means diddly squat because whether Canada is ranked 40th, 30th or 20th, wont matter one iota.  Rankings will only matter for pot 1 (ie.: top seeded) teams

Edited December 29, 2021 by Free kick

[Unnamed Trialist]

3 minutes ago, Free kick said:

By the way,  where is it written or what is the source for the notion that i am reading here that the FIFA rankings will determine the distribution of teams amongst all the pots?  I don't believe it.   For determining which team goes pot 1?  Yes, it makes sense to use the ranking system and they have always done this.  But it would be illogical, chaotic, confusing ect to stick teams into 4 pots entirely based on a ranking system and then draw the teams out of pots in front of billions of viewers while trying to respect the primary notion of fair distribution (of confederations) amongst groups.   They would have to be constantly having to draw teams out of the pots and have to constantly move teams from one group to another and,  to the uninitiated, the whole process would look confusing and suspicious and could lead to catastrophe. 

What I am sure will happen (like always) is that there will be blend of ranking and regional considerations.   Rankings will determine who goes to pot 1 and regional considerations will have to respected, meaning that: 1)  you cant have more than 2 sides from Europe in each group  2) you cant have more than one side  in each group from the same confederation with respect to the non UEFA confederations.   

Pot 1 will be Qatar and then the next seven based on Fifa rankings.   This will mean Bra, Arg and the top 5 in Europe.  (5+2+1)  

Pot 2 will consist of all the remaining euro sides that are not in Pot 1.   (8)

Pot 3 will logically group the five sides from Africa and the 3 South American sides that are not in pot 1 (5+3).  This assumes that the 5th SA side advances from the inter continental playoff.  If not, you could just state this as the winner of that AFC vs Conmebol playoff

Pot 4. Logically has be be Concacaf and Asia (4+4).  Or, the four auto qualified sides from Asia plus the three auto qualified sides from Concacaf plus the winner of the Concacaf and Oceania playoff.

This way,  when they are pulling the balls out out of the bowl, they might (at most) have to move one or two (max) teams during the draw in order to respect regional distribution amongst groups. 

All this to say,  whether Canada is ranked 40th, 30th or 20th, wont matter one iota.  Rankings will only matter for pot 1 (ie.: top seeded) teams

That is far too logical, and anyways:

"We are going for Pot 3"

(spoken in the same tone as "it's up there, Steve" in Family Feud)

[Free kick]

43 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

That is far too logical, and anyways:

"We are going for Pot 3"

(spoken in the same tone as "it's up there, Steve" in Family Feud)

I am actually looking for one of my recent posts whereby i made a case for wanting to win (or something like that) so that we can get into pot 3.  I need to delete that.  😅   I fell into the trap of assuming that when there is a long thread on topics and its accompanied with pie charts, power points or spreadsheet, then someone must know what they are talking about.  So i go along with it.   Then it hits you, no it doesnt make any sence 🙂. 

its what happened here.   someone posted what seemed like a well researched spreadsheet screen shot.  there were some follow up comments  like:  "so if we can beat out Morrocco" we can get to pot 3.  It never occurred to me that the whole premise might be wrong.  

Edited December 29, 2021 by Free kick