FIFA rankings - why they are important and how to beat the system

[Hawkguy]

12 hours ago, TGAA_Star said:

I got Canada in a Group of Death with Brazil, Netherlands and Saudi Arabia off a mock draw

Sounds like an easy 1st place.

[Hawkguy]

This was the group I got with the simulator. Wouldn't be easy... but advancing would be possible.

 

Group 1

 Qatar
 Switzerland
 Senegal
 Canada

[TGAA_Star]

Did a full mock draw and here are the following groups I got when I simulated from Groups A to H

 

Group A- Qatar 🇶🇦, Germany 🇩🇪, Poland 🇵🇱 and New Zealand 🇳🇿 

Group B- France 🇫🇷, Switzerland 🇨🇭, Iran 🇮🇷 and Canada 🇨🇦 

Group C- Brazil 🇧🇷, Denmark 🇩🇰, Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿, South Korea 🇰🇷 

Group D- Spain 🇪🇸, Uruguay 🇺🇾, Serbia 🇷🇸 and Algeria 🇩🇿 

Group E- Argentina 🇦🇷, USA 🇺🇸, Australia 🇦🇺 and Ghana 🇬🇭 

Group F- Italy 🇮🇹,  Croatia 🇭🇷,  Morocco 🇲🇦 and Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 

Group G- Belgium 🇧🇪,  Mexico 🇲🇽,  Senegal 🇸🇳 and Ecuador 🇪🇨 

Group H- England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿, Netherlands 🇳🇱, Peru 🇵🇪 and Tunisia 🇹🇳 

[Cblake]

12 hours ago, Hawkguy said:

This was the group I got with the simulator. Wouldn't be easy... but advancing would be possible.

 

Group 1

 Qatar
 Switzerland
 Senegal
 Canada

Any team that draws Qatar as their A pool opponent will see that as a good thing, even great. 

[Hawkguy]

2 hours ago, Cblake said:

Any team that draws Qatar as their A pool opponent will see that as a good thing, even great. 

Switzerland and Senegal would be very hard games though 

[Obinna]

19 hours ago, Hawkguy said:

This was the group I got with the simulator. Wouldn't be easy... but advancing would be possible.

 

Group 1

 Qatar
 Switzerland
 Senegal
 Canada

That's probably as easy and as even of a group as you'd get at the world cup. Group of life 

Edited February 2, 2022 by Obinna

[Shway]

Moving on upp,
we’re finally getting a piece of the pie!

[Xavier.]

From 73rd to 33rd in the FIFA Rankings.

What a story. Love this team.

 

[Xavier.]

 

[toontownman]

So you're saying cancel the Brazil friendly and load up with some small ish beatable nations to boost Points!

[Allez les Rouges]

4 minutes ago, toontownman said:

So you're saying cancel the Brazil friendly and load up with some small ish beatable nations to boost Points!

I think the draw is in April, right after the next qualifying window, so any friendlies wouldn't factor in. Just gotta win the last 3 games and hope for the best!

[snake]

So how many fifa points did Canada earn this window

[Xavier.]

12 minutes ago, snake said:

So how many fifa points did Canada earn this window

35.23

[Cblake]

 

[Joe Keeper]

Lol I'm rooting for Tonga to win Oceania. Come on you other reds!

I have nothing against New Zealand, unless they face us, but I would love to see an upset in the OFC. It's been coming for decades. The Solomon Islands almost did it to Australia.

Edited February 3, 2022 by Joe Keeper

[Unnamed Trialist]

3 hours ago, Xavier. said:

 

Someone responding to this on the Twitter account wonders if canceling Guatemala may come back to hurt us. 

Our real dilemma is that anything but wins has us losing points. 

[CanadianTraveller]

On 2/1/2022 at 1:46 AM, CanadianTraveller said:

Apologies if I'm posting in the wrong place (or if no one cares about Pot 3):

• FIFA has not made an official announcement on the draw. Expect that after Africa Cup of Nations, perhaps after the Olympics. UEFA says the draw is on April 3rd; that's the most definitive source I see.
• Those attending in Qatar may not want to see Canada in the opening match, as they'd have to fork over an extra $250 for the privilege. 
• If you want to have fun, visit https://stattosoftware.com/wc2022/. Simulates the draw, based on November's results so don't be offended by Canada's Pot 4 position. I got Belgium/Croatia/Japan/Canada in one click - I'd take that draw!
• If you want to assume that the draw Pots will be based solely on FIFA rankings, keep reading. At this time it's only an assumption that they'd do it similar/same to 2018; if there's a new system the rest of this post is irrelevant.
• There's no reason to assume that the interconfederation teams will be in Pot 4. First, we know the teams playing, so the ball could be labelled "Panama/New Zealand" just as easily as "IC1". That ball could be placed in Pot 4 since both teams have rankings that would put them in Pot 4. The other ball will have three teams whose rankings could put them in either Pot 2, maybe Pot 3, and certainly Pot 4 (thinking UAE - the likely loser to Australia/Japan sometime in...May? June?). We can assume this ball goes into Pot 4, but why would you put a Uruguay or Peru into Pot 4? Since the ball is likely to be labelled by confederation - to avoid two CONMEBOL/CONCACAF/AFC teams in the same Group - FIFA may choose to place this ball in Pot 3 to maximize fairness to the teams in the same Group. But they could punish the IC teams and put everyone in Pot 4. With the confederation labelling, my bet is Pot 3 especially if it's Uruguay/Japan/UAE.

The final FIFA rankings are becoming clearer. You need to project the best possible ranking points - i.e. assume a nation wins all remaining scheduled games. We'll assume there are no remaining friendlies, but I could see a Nigeria-Togo match or something similar if the 1.5 points made a difference. With the draw in early April, based on FIFA rankings on March 31 (I assume), not much time for anyone to schedule something.

Canada is projected to have 1529.6 based on today's rankings for its opponents. If CRC/JAM/PAN wins upcoming WCQ games, Canada might get to 1530. If those teams lose before playing us, Canada might only get to 1529.

That puts us in 25th place if all of the favourites win. Nigeria is projected at around 1528.75 with two wins over Ghana. I'm not certain Canada (w/ 4 wins) will finish ahead of Nigeria (w/ 2 wins) but I think we're safe. It's super close. Someone w/ time can calculate Canada points based on losses by CRC/JAM/PAN. For now, let's assume we edge out Nigeria & FIFA doesn't manipulate the system to favor African nations at the last second. Thank you to Tunisia and Algeria for failing miserably at Cup of Nations and dropping behind Canada.

Unfortunately 25th puts us in Pot 4. And Cameroon or Egypt could move past us this week. We need at least two of the following to occur - three if CONMEBOL/AFC IC is placed in Pot 3:

• Egypt to beat Senegal & lose at least one game - either in Africa Cup of Nations or one of the two games vs. Senegal. Or two draws. Maybe a draw and a penalty shootout win in AFCON;
• Cameroon to lose a match - any AFCON/WCQ match will do. A draw in WCQ might also work. Tunisia has to draw/lose as often as Canada does if they defeat Cameroon in WCQ;
• DR Congo beats Morocco;
• Russia to qualify, if Canada wins out. Slim chance Canada finishes ahead w/ a draw & Russia winning on penalties;
• Scotland to qualify, with only 1 Canada loss or 2 draws; 
• Australia to qualify directly, beating Japan;
• Japan having one more loss or two more draws than Canada has in its remaining games. A draw costs 12.5 ranking points; a loss costs 25 points vs. the points a team gets for a win (e.g. +10 win, -2.5 tie, -15 loss);
• Korea having one more draw or one more loss than Canada has in its remaining games;
• Italy and Portugal failing to qualify; 
• and don't forget we have to finish ahead of Nigeria if they qualify. And Ecuador needs to qualify directly - a draw vs. Peru should get the job done.

If Canada draws one of its final four contests, we need Japan or Korea to lose, or Australia/Russia/Cameroon to draw, plus two of the other scenarios. If we lose, Japan/Korea need to lose and draw. In other words...4 wins or likely Pot 4 for Canada.

Best chance: AFC qualifying. Japan hosts Saudi in a few hours; Australia hosts Japan in the 2nd last game. South Korea hosts Iran. And Australia has to visit Saudi in the last match perhaps only needing a draw. A reasonable chance one of Japan or Korea doesn't win out, plus Cameroon losing in AFCON. But getting three of the above results? If there's a simulation, I'm guessing there's less than a 5% chance of getting to #23. Will it matter what our FIFA ranking is on March 31...?

Does it matter which pot Canada is in? A bit - I'd rather play any of teams in Pot 4 (except for a Uruguay/Peru) before the teams in Pot 3 - maybe Morocco would be OK.

For reference:

Pot 1: Qatar, Belgium, Brazil, France, Argentina, England, Italy/Portugal, Spain
Pot 2: Denmark, Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland, Mexico, USA, Croatia, CONMEBOL 4 (Uruguay/Peru)
Pot 3: UEFA 1 (SWE, POL, CZE), UEFA 2 (WAL/UKR/AUT), Senegal*, Iran, Serbia, Morocco*, Japan**, Korea
Pot 4: Canada, Nigeria***, (Russia), (Tunisia), (Egypt), Algeria/Cameroon, (Scotland), (Australia), Ecuador, Saudi Arabia, InterConfed1/2

Update on Canada vs. Nigeria for the last spot in Pot 3. With the Panama loss, Canada's projected maximum points based on today's rankings is down to 1528.82. For comparison, Nigeria's similar number is 1528.87, assuming two Nigeria wins. So without exact calculations of Ghana's, Jamaica's, and Panama's rankings after their next games...we're basically tied. Especially with Panama playing two matches before we play them. For now, assume Canada and Nigeria would finish tied, unless Nigeria ties or loses a match and still qualifies. Of course, Ghana could just beat them and remove all doubt.

It's so close that the Jamaica/El Salvador result may be the difference. Which is absolutely bizarre even by FIFA Ranking standards.... Any chance our charter flight from Costa Rica to Canada in March can do a stopover in the Caymans to play a collection of groundskeepers and earn 0.8 points?

Out of curiosity - anyone know if FIFA ranking points are awarded for a default (forfeit) result like the one we almost had last night?

[Allez les Rouges]

2 hours ago, Joe Keeper said:

Lol I'm rooting for Tonga to win Oceania. Come on you other reds!

I have nothing against New Zealand, unless they face us, but I would love to see an upset in the OFC. It's been coming for decades. The Solomon Islands almost did it to Australia.

Tonga withdrew due to the volcanic eruption...

[baulderdash77]

Our chance at pot 3 relies on other team’s results as much as our own.  For sure we have to win out.  Besides that we’re counting on other results.

If Ghana or Scotland make it, we will be in Pot 3.

 

[Allez les Rouges]

Slightly off-topic, but the new Elo rankings are out. Canada passed the US and is 1 point from both Mexico and the Top 20.

[Cblake]

Ranking’s do matter, Pot 3 can happen as long as Canada continues to do what I has been doing, winning games. 
 

 

[narduch]

We have surpassed the USA in the ELO Ranking:

https://www.eloratings.net/

[Cblake]

4 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Someone responding to this on the Twitter account wonders if canceling Guatemala may come back to hurt us. 

Our real dilemma is that anything but wins has us losing points. 

Canada would loose points with a tie in Costa Rica I believe. 

[Kent]

1 hour ago, Cblake said:

Ranking’s do matter, Pot 3 can happen as long as Canada continues to do what I has been doing, winning games. 
 

 

Oh man, ahead of Russia. I'll have to do that map of higher ranked countries thing again once the next official rankings come out.

[Sal333]

8 hours ago, snake said:

So how many fifa points did Canada earn this window

35.50