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Canada and the 2024 Copa America


VinceA

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6 hours ago, narduch said:

A lot of the UEFA groups have 5 teams. So there will be some teams available.  But we probably need to act fast

Exactly. Was looking at the Spain Euro-qualifiers schedule and of course being a Nation's League finalist they're freed up for it in June, so in the fall they'll stay busy along with the other three in NL, Italy, Netherlands and Croatia.

For example, in that September window I think we could play 2 teams also in the Spain group, Norway and Scotland.

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1 hour ago, Gian-Luca said:

Germany should be available for friendlies as well

That's a good shout. I would like to see one giant of football (Germany would fit the bill) and one up-and-coming team that's beatable (rematch against Morocco?). Two world cup teams inside the top 15 of FIFA rankings. Two teams we can learn a lot from. Two teams the players will want to measure up against to test where they are at. 

 

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18 hours ago, Kyle_The_Hill said:

Sorry I'm sure this was answered but I can't find it, even with a loss tonight and a Panama win, I assume there is no chance they can catch us for fourth in Concacaf rankings?

Also related, does anyone know the formula for Concacaf rankings?

I've never seen a concrete explanation.

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18 hours ago, Kyle_The_Hill said:

Sorry I'm sure this was answered but I can't find it, even with a loss tonight and a Panama win, I assume there is no chance they can catch us for fourth in Concacaf rankings?

Also related, does anyone know the formula for Concacaf rankings?

Apologies, complicated but

https://www.concacaf.com/nations-league/news/concacaf-launches-new-ranking-index/

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That link makes everything clear except for the mystery formula or table that determines the "expected" outcome.  Panama (1650) is behind us by  63 in the Feb 28th CONCACAF rankings.  The K value  for a Nations League game (importance of the match) is 35 and the greatest multiplier would be 2 (1 for them winning, subtract -1 for them being considered before the game as certainly likely to lose to Costa Rica).  So, while it is mathematically possible for them to overtake us based on the Costa Rica game, it is unlikely.  That said, if they were to beat us in June (not gonna happen, but just hypothetically speaking :) ), they would overtake us for 4th at that point.

Edited by shorty
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On 3/28/2023 at 9:14 AM, Gian-Luca said:

Germany should be available for friendlies as well

They are. The rumour is that they will travel to the USA and Mexico during the October window.

Which means that if we play them it would be in Germany and in September. There is no other window available.

Edited by Olympique_de_Marseille
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1 hour ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

They are. The rumour is that they will travel to the USA and Mexico during the October window.

Which means that if we play them it would be in Germany and in September. There is no other window available.

Clearly Germany have interest in simulating what a WC 2026 could look like. Could we similarly benefit since we are hosts? Perhaps we should be looking to primarily play home friendlies? Perhaps there are financial considerations, but from a competition standpoint we are not playing official competition in Europe anytime soon. Might as well play at home, since we'll be doing so in 2026. 

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2 hours ago, Obinna said:

Clearly Germany have interest in simulating what a WC 2026 could look like. Could we similarly benefit since we are hosts? Perhaps we should be looking to primarily play home friendlies? Perhaps there are financial considerations, but from a competition standpoint we are not playing official competition in Europe anytime soon. Might as well play at home, since we'll be doing so in 2026. 

(Whispers: the CSB should help the CMNT play some home friendlies, for a % of income).

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5 minutes ago, Metro said:

Latest CONCACAF rankings are out.  Dated March 31:

https://www.concacaf.com/rankings/men-s-national-team/

We are within striking distance of CR, but Panama is within striking distance of us. Theoretically, it looks like they could jump as high as 3rd if they beat us and definitely if they win it all. Depending on what kind of friendly window the Ticos have, they could remain ahead of us if we lose both matches. 

It's going to be a tough game against Panama, but I expect us to win and then get to the final. That alone should keep us ahead of them heading to the GC. It will likely see us leapfrog the Ticos as well. 

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On 3/27/2023 at 7:13 AM, trc2014 said:

If Panama beats Costa Rica and we draw Honduras, is there a chance they vault us for the top 4 rating?

We are still top 4. Our win against Honduras meant Panama could not make up any real ground. They picked up +45 points and we picked up +30.

Can someone summarize how the rankings work? Do they only factor intra-concacaf matches? If so, it looks like Panama earned more for a single win against Costa Rica than we did for two wins against Honduras and Curacao. I get how the Ticos are 3rd in the region and Honduras and Curacao were 8th and 13th respectively, but that's still a little surprising they were able to earn more points than us. 

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We know the teams who will participate now, so here is a look at how the Copa America qualifiers (aka 2023-24 NL group stage) could look:

Group A

  1. Jamaica
  2. Honduras
  3. Martinique
  4. Curacao 
  5. Cuba
  6. Nicaragua

Group B

  1. Panama
  2. El Salvador
  3. Suriname
  4. Grenada
  5. Haiti
  6. Guatemala

And for fun here are some possible QF matchups:

(1st ranked team) Mexico vs Honduras 

(2nd ranked team) USA vs El Salvador

(3rd ranked team) Panama vs Costa Rica

(4th ranked team) Canada vs Jamaica

 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, Obinna said:

We know the teams who will participate now, so here is a look at how the Copa America qualifiers (aka 2023-24 NL group stage) could look:

Group A

  1. Jamaica
  2. Honduras
  3. Martinique
  4. Curacao 
  5. Cuba
  6. Nicaragua

Group B

  1. Panama
  2. El Salvador
  3. Suriname
  4. Grenada
  5. Haiti
  6. Guatemala

And for fun here are some possible QF matchups:

(1st ranked team) Mexico vs Honduras 

(2nd ranked team) USA vs El Salvador

(3rd ranked team) Panama vs Costa Rica

(4th ranked team) Canada vs Jamaica

 

 

 

I still wouldn't want to draw Costa Rica and I keep waiting for Jamaica to put it all together, but there's no reason Canada shouldn't advance against those teams. And that's assuming there's no upsets in qualifying. Haiti over El Salvador wouldn't shock me, for instance. 

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On 3/30/2023 at 11:43 AM, Obinna said:

We are still top 4. Our win against Honduras meant Panama could not make up any real ground. They picked up +45 points and we picked up +30.

Can someone summarize how the rankings work? Do they only factor intra-concacaf matches? If so, it looks like Panama earned more for a single win against Costa Rica than we did for two wins against Honduras and Curacao. I get how the Ticos are 3rd in the region and Honduras and Curacao were 8th and 13th respectively, but that's still a little surprising they were able to earn more points than us. 

I'm having weird internet issues right now, so I can't load the link I have to the ranking procedure, but I do have my notes "explaining" how the "Expected Result" variable is determined.

"E = P(win) - P(loss), where P(win) and P(loss) are the probabilities of a win and a loss, based on difference in ranking points and home field advantage, and some voodoo for non-CONCACAF teams."

That last part implies they don't explain how, but they DO consider games against non-CONCACAF teams for their rankings.

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