The Road to Qatar.

[narduch]

6 minutes ago, JamboAl said:

Why don't you run a poll.  I would think it's no more than 25%...like the percentage who want Herdman gone now.

That sounds complicated

[JamboAl]

10 minutes ago, narduch said:

That sounds complicated

I know...that's why smarter people than me start those things up. 

[SpursFlu]

2 hours ago, king1010 said:

ppl are more than willing to accept something new. 

but not something that has 85% of teams vying for 0.5 of a place. 

not something having ranking points from 3 years ago retroactively deciding if you are in or out of the hex

not having a scenario where teams like Canada have played 3 official matches in the past 2 years against non fifa teams therefore unable to gain FIFA points versus some teams that are in the hex. 

Like if you're going to use the top 6 teams automatically in the HEX, use the damn Concacaf rankings index which actually take into consideration games against non FIFA opponents. 

In what world is the US Virgin Islands finishing top 3 in the HEX? Your 85% vying for a .5 spot is laughable

[apbsmith]

5 hours ago, Alex said:

Or how about we go back to the semi final round and play Mexico, Trinidad and panama like in 2000. And lose.

or we go there and play Guatemala, Costa Rica and Honduras and lose again. Like in 2004.

what about playing jamaica, Mexico and Honduras like in 2008. Ahh we lost again! 

Maybe we would have better luck in 2012. Cuba, Panama and Honduras. Nope we lost.

2016 was our year right? Mexico, El Salvador and Honduras, I mean we beat them at home! Nope still lost.

My point is we lost every semi final round since qualifying for the 98 hex. Sure we might go all the way and lose to Brazil. I’d take that over the last 5 nightmarish early exits I had to witness. 

Based on these facts, it makes me feel like we will smash 3 minnows and lose the first home and home quarter final round or semi final round :(.

I'm usually optimistic, but home and home matchups have a higher variance then more people think. Just look at UEFA CL, often times better team gets upset.  I would not like our chances of having to 4 home and home's just to get the .5 spot 

[apbsmith]

With the current top 6 rankings, the only clear team I really see auto qualifying is Mexico. 

I definitely do not think it will be Mexico, USA, Costa rica 1-2-3.

I think all the other 5 hex teams would be fairly optimistic and like there chances of being top 4. Go for top 3 but still not out of it if you end up 4th.

I also think there are going to be tons of ties in the hex side of the bracket, which will open it up for the teams #2-#6. Mainly because the teams this year.

I actually don't mind the format per say but I think spots #4-#12 to get into the hex should have been done differently. That to me is what is irritating and extremely unfair.

Oh well.... Spinning in circles at this point. Giddy up for Nations League.

Edited July 11, 2019 by apbsmith

[CanadianSoccerFan]

Dino Rossi indicating the CSA knew about this for a while.  

 

[dyslexic nam]

2 minutes ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

Dino Rossi indicating the CSA knew about this for a while.  

 

I don’t see how we could possibly justify not arranging friendlies if this was true.  We obviously need FIFA points in this format so forgoing the chance to accumulate points would be suicide (barring the uber-conspiracy that we are aiming to be 7th and qualify that way)

[CanSuffer]

The obvious : in a tournament (eg World Cup and World Cup qualifying) you play head-to-head games between teams to determine who is better. Ideally, everybody plays everybody and there is no argument whatsoever. eg. CONEMBOL. Most of the time this is impractical. So you do your best to design the tournament so that using seedings based on rankings/past performance is used as little as possible and so that each team has the same path to victory as much as possible. This format violates these principles more than any other tournament I can think of. Although this year's Canadian Championship comes to mind!

I've liked what Vic Montagliani has done at CONCACAF up til now. But this seems so bush. I can see that he probably has the laudable goal of trying to give the lesser CONCACAF nations more meaningful games and I suppose that it does. But at the cost of being so unfair? It's a travesty.

It's interesting to note a phenomenon that occurs in the chess world. Chess players' ratings are an important part of what tournaments they will get invited to (bigger or smaller prize money) including the Candidates tournament which determines who will challenge the current World Champion. The top 8-10 rated players in the world tend to play a majority of their games against each other and few games against lower-rated players. This tends to keep their ratings higher and at the same time makes it hard for lower rated players to improve their rating. Now we're gonna have the same rating BS in soccer. Not to mention how poor the rating system is to begin with.

 

 

[king1010]

1 hour ago, SpursFlu said:

In what world is the US Virgin Islands finishing top 3 in the HEX? Your 85% vying for a .5 spot is laughable

You’re right. Its 85% vying for for .25 of a spot because the winner of the 35 actually have to playoff against hex 4th before playing intercontinental. It is absolutely laughable.  

With regards to USVI i have no idea what you’re talking about 

Edited July 12, 2019 by king1010

[SpursFlu]

9 minutes ago, king1010 said:

You’re right. Its 85% vying for for .25 of a spot because the winner of the 35 actually have to playoff against hex 4th before playing intercontinental. It is absolutely laughable.  

With regards to USVI i have no idea what you’re talking about 

Well if you don't know what I'm talking about I guess it's s pointless conversation. 

 

I'm excited for qualifying to start in September. Home and away v the USA.. what a way to kick it off. Should be great

[CanadianSoccerFan]

1 minute ago, CanSuffer said:

The obvious : in a tournament (eg World Cup and World Cup qualifying) you play head-to-head games between teams to determine who is better. Ideally, everybody plays everybody and there is no argument whatsoever. eg. CONEMBOL. Most of the time this is impractical.

 

But it's NOT.  Everybody says this when it's not true.  There's 26 matchdays between now and November 2021 and most of them are being wasted on the stupid Nations League or being left unused altogether for no f###ing reason.  You could double the size of the hex and still have 4 matchdays to spare.  

If the minnows want more games then give them a marathon Gold Cup qualifying campaign.  

[CanSuffer]

2 minutes ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

But it's NOT.  Everybody says this when it's not true.  There's 26 matchdays between now and November 2021 and most of them are being wasted on the stupid Nations League or being left unused altogether for no f###ing reason.  You could double the size of the hex and still have 4 matchdays to spare.  

If the minnows want more games then give them a marathon Gold Cup qualifying campaign.  

Just to be clear it is impractical to have all 41 teams play each other. But I totally agree you could and should double (at least) the Hex.

[Binky]

Under the new format introduced by Victor Montagliani there will be no more major upsets in CONCACAF World Cup qualifying, considering that the highest ranked nation in the Hex will not be facing any country ranked weaker than 6th in the confederation. That's more elitist than the UEFA Champions League, where there are still remote possibilities of a team like Ajax upsetting the likes of Juventus and Real Madrid. 

[TOcanadafan]

2 hours ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

Dino Rossi indicating the CSA knew about this for a while.  

 

Also a similar response from the Panamanian federation  who are in a much better position than we are to reach #6 but whose fans/media are seemingly putting up way more of a stink than we are (basically we knew about this format in 2017 and were just waiting to rubber stamp it once we knew it would be a 32 team World Cup and not 48 teams.)

https://twitter.com/panamaamerica/status/1149490376606023682?s=21

if it’s true the CSA knew about this and did absolutely nothing to help schedule friendlies to help our rankings dump the entire lot!

 

Edited July 12, 2019 by TOcanadafan

[CanadianSoccerFan]

4 minutes ago, TOcanadafan said:

Also a similar response from the Panamanian federation  who are in a much better position than we are to reach #6 but whose fans/media are seemingly putting up way more of a stink than we are (basically we knew about this format in 2017 and were just waiting to rubber stamp it once we knew it would be a 32 team World Cup and not 48 teams.)

https://twitter.com/panamaamerica/status/1149490376606023682?s=21

if it’s true the CSA knew about this and did absolutely nothing to help schedule friendlies to help our rankings dump the entire lot!

 

According to this it was approved at the 2017 CONCACAF Congress.  How the hell did nobody leak this to the press for two whole years???  This is what happens when you have no journalists covering these events.  

[CanadaFan123]

I’d like to think that we could outclass/outscore teams in the lower bracket and thus our chances would be better.  Playing in the upper tier our defence will be tested more and that’s clearly our weak spot.  I think we have higher odds than 30% but I completely agree with what you’re putting out there formula wise.

[lamptern]

Another reason we need to make the HEX:

We are a young team which is lacking the experience of nailing do or die game (example:  Haiti game).  

To grab that 0.5 spot, we need to get through  4 rounds of grinding fights.

It's really a tall order despite the round of intercontinental game. 

The luxury of being a part of HEX is that we could be still alive after a couple of hiccups.

[Free kick]

20 hours ago, An Observer said:

I dont have a problem with them giving the top 6 a chance to play for the top 2 spots but then they have the next 2 In the Hex plus the top 2 in the rest of the qualifying play for the 1.5 spots; or better, they use the nation league to generate the 6 by having the 4 winners plus the second place finishers playoff to generate the next 2.  That is the fairest as that is not wholly relying on dubious rankings and was subject to play in where sides actually had to beat each other in a competition to qualify. 

At the very least , yes, the sides outside of the hex should have been given a chance to win a full spot at the world cup instead of having to play in the intercontinental playoff.  

I dont know if the intercontinental playoff will include Uefa and or Conmebol so the frustrating and unjust aspect, that irritates me, is that a concacaf side outside that top six could end up playing in the intercontinental playoff and face the kind of teams that Mexico would would be an underdog against.  whereas Mexico, because of the format, can qualify be facing easier opponents in its own region.

Edited July 12, 2019 by Free kick

[Binky]

Can someone tell me what happened with the FIFA/Coca-Cola CONCACAF rankings between June 7, 2018 and August 16, 2018? I was checking how many points the 6th place country in CONCACAF has had over the past year, and the number of points changed quite drastically. Is it possible such a drastic change may happen again between now and next year?

1,342 - June 14, 2019

1,344 - April 4, 2019

1,327 - February 7, 2019

1,327 - December 20, 2018

1,327 - November 29, 2018

1,335 - October 25, 2018

1,339 - September 20, 2018

1,343 - August 16, 2018

0,508 - June 7, 2018

0,530 - May 17, 2018

0,530 - April 12, 2018

Edited July 12, 2019 by Binky

[SpecialK]

I hope I’m wrong so someone please  double check my math calendar dates - so since John Herdman was hired in Jan 2018, we have played 10 games 7W - 3 loses. 

Since his time we could have 7 more games in that FIFA official windows ( 10 points per game) and  potentially 2 more during the World Cup prep ( so games not during fifa window = 5 points per game). 

*Plus 2 more games if we made it the gold cup finals.

So doing just basic math here and without adding the  bonus point of a win or a draw or -1 with a loss . Canada could have added 80 points with just playing 9 games ! And it would have taken us from 1314 to 1394. Jamaica is sitting in 4th in CONCACAF with 1397 and   Honduras in fifth with 1368. 

So everyone is losing their mind over the new  qualification system (  shitty system ) , we’ll if The CSA and Herdman knew WTF and WTF supporters ! Why are you not losing yours minds hard on the CSA, for putting us in a horrible spot cuz they’re too cheap and lazy! 

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.sportingnews.com/ca/amp/soccer/news/canada-soccer-john-herdman-canmnt-play-more-games-concacaf-nations-league/1js0e4nh8r5od159rcuzu6a03o

 

Edited July 12, 2019 by SpecialK

[maplebanana]

46 minutes ago, SpecialK said:

I hope I’m wrong so someone please  double check my math calendar dates - so since John Herdman was hired in Jan 2018, we have played 10 games 7W - 3 loses. 

Since his time we could have 7 more games in that FIFA official windows ( 10 points per game) and  potentially 2 more during the World Cup prep ( so games not during fifa window = 5 points per game). 

*Plus 2 more games if we made it the gold cup finals.

So doing just basic math here and without adding the  bonus point of a win or a draw or -1 with a loss . Canada could have added 80 points with just playing 9 games ! And it would have taken us from 1314 to 1394. Jamaica is sitting in 4th in CONCACAF with 1397 and   Honduras in fifth with 1368. 

So everyone is losing their mind over the new  qualification system (  ****** system ) , we’ll if The CSA and Herdman knew WTF and WTF supporters ! Why are you not losing yours minds hard on the CSA, for putting us in a horrible spot cuz they’re too cheap and lazy! 

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.sportingnews.com/ca/amp/soccer/news/canada-soccer-john-herdman-canmnt-play-more-games-concacaf-nations-league/1js0e4nh8r5od159rcuzu6a03o

 

The new FIFA rankings are unfortunately not simple math: https://img.fifa.com/image/upload/edbm045h0udbwkqew35a.pdf

A friendly inside the window has a multiplier of 10, but the points you get for beating a team with the same number of ranking points as you is 5:

Points = 10 * (W - We), where W is 1/0.5/0 for win/draw/lose and We = 1 / (10^(opponent pts - canada pts/600) + 1). If Canada played another team with 1314 rankings points, that becomes We = 1/(10^0+1) = 1/(1+1) = 0.5. So... Points = 10 * (1-0.5) = 5. So 7 friendlies against 7 Canada-equivalent teams would have netted us 35 pts, not 70.

Unfortunately, the rating system ensures that no one will seemingly ever move. For example, what happens if we beat the #1 team in the world (Belgium, with 1746 pts)? We = 1/(10^((1746-1314)/600)+1) = 0.16, so Points = 8.4. We would have to beat Belgium 25 times in a row to climb ahead of them (not be #1, just climb ahead of them as they fall to around #20 and we get to ~#19).

Now, instead, let's go beat up the Dominican Republic: We = 1/(10^((1021-1314)/600)+1) = 0.75, so points = 2.5. In other words, we get the same number of points beating Dominican Republic twice (2.5 x 2) as beating Panama (roughly the same ranking points as us).

Coles notes version: a) This WCQ format sucks, b) This FIFA ranking system sucks even more, and c) We should play more friendlies and it doesn't matter really against who. 

But anyway, I'm sure all this stuff above has not convinced anyone who would be otherwise inclined to *not* bring fire and pitchforks to Herdman's door, so carry on with the extremely productive outrage.

 

 

[Alex]

5 hours ago, Binky said:

Can someone tell me what happened with the FIFA/Coca-Cola CONCACAF rankings between June 7, 2018 and August 16, 2018? I was checking how many points the 6th place country in CONCACAF has had over the past year, and the number of points changed quite drastically. Is it possible such a drastic change may happen again between now and next year?

1,342 - June 14, 2019

1,344 - April 4, 2019

1,327 - February 7, 2019

1,327 - December 20, 2018

1,327 - November 29, 2018

1,335 - October 25, 2018

1,339 - September 20, 2018

1,343 - August 16, 2018

0,508 - June 7, 2018

0,530 - May 17, 2018

0,530 - April 12, 2018

They changed the formula. It was simpler before to calculate. 

[Kent]

4 hours ago, maplebanana said:

The new FIFA rankings are unfortunately not simple math: https://img.fifa.com/image/upload/edbm045h0udbwkqew35a.pdf

A friendly inside the window has a multiplier of 10, but the points you get for beating a team with the same number of ranking points as you is 5:

Points = 10 * (W - We), where W is 1/0.5/0 for win/draw/lose and We = 1 / (10^(opponent pts - canada pts/600) + 1). If Canada played another team with 1314 rankings points, that becomes We = 1/(10^0+1) = 1/(1+1) = 0.5. So... Points = 10 * (1-0.5) = 5. So 7 friendlies against 7 Canada-equivalent teams would have netted us 35 pts, not 70.

Unfortunately, the rating system ensures that no one will seemingly ever move. For example, what happens if we beat the #1 team in the world (Belgium, with 1746 pts)? We = 1/(10^((1746-1314)/600)+1) = 0.16, so Points = 8.4. We would have to beat Belgium 25 times in a row to climb ahead of them (not be #1, just climb ahead of them as they fall to around #20 and we get to ~#19).

Now, instead, let's go beat up the Dominican Republic: We = 1/(10^((1021-1314)/600)+1) = 0.75, so points = 2.5. In other words, we get the same number of points beating Dominican Republic twice (2.5 x 2) as beating Panama (roughly the same ranking points as us).

Coles notes version: a) This WCQ format sucks, b) This FIFA ranking system sucks even more, and c) We should play more friendlies and it doesn't matter really against who. 

But anyway, I'm sure all this stuff above has not convinced anyone who would be otherwise inclined to *not* bring fire and pitchforks to Herdman's door, so carry on with the extremely productive outrage.

 

 

The bold part above, it's worth repeating, is assuming we win all 7 of those games. Lose half of them and we are at 0 points gained. If we win 6 and lose only 1, we only gain 25 points instead of 35, if I'm not mistaken. Because instead of gaining 5 points, going from 30 to 35, we lose 5 points, going from 30 down to 25.

So yeah, it's definitely not as simple as "More friendlies, more points". It takes wins to move up.

Thanks for the detailed analysis of the system @maplebanana and @Lofty for your link. I'll have to familiarize myself a bit more and play around with hypothetical situations... if/when I get the time.

[baulderdash77]

To move up from 7/8 to 4/5 in CONCACAF we have to be making the semi’s or finals of major tournaments or even the CONCACAF Nations League because the teams we want to pass are for the most part getting there and we have a dismal base points to build on.

The bottom line is win.  That Haiti game was a disaster for us.  We have to get points off the US to make it up the rankings and we have to run the table against the minnows as the 7th seed and make the playoff game.

*edit* this new format incentivizes winning frequently and consistently more than the other system.

Edited July 12, 2019 by baulderdash77

[Kent]

I just noticed this part of the link that maplebanana provided.

"Knock-out rounds of final competitions: Teams that earn negative points in the knock-out round of a final competition (e.g. as a result of losing, or even winning after PSO against a weaker team) do not lose any points: If (W – We) < 0 then P = Pbefore This condition was introduced in order to protect the point totals of teams that have progressed to the knock-out round."

That seems to reinforce the idea that the rankings don't change much. So I guess, we lose 0 points for our loss to Haiti.

It seems to me that if you are in a competition that has a R16 knockout (like the World Cup) you actually gain more ground on your opponent by beating them in the group stage, rather than the R16. Both of those rounds have the same importance value (it gets raised at the QF round), but you aren't taking points away from your opponent in the R16. In the group stage, seemingly, you are taking points away from them.

Weird!