The Road to Qatar.

[SpecialK]

1 hour ago, Ansem said:

Going forward this is my assessment going forward

As of June 14

Ranking points Multipliers / coefficient (Source FIFA)*

The formula is complicated so only going with the multiplier, also beating teams higher than you score you more points*

• Gold Cup Group Stage X35
• Gold Cup Group Knockout Round X40
• Nation League group stage X15
• Nation League group Championship X25

Current situation

30 points separates Canada from El Salvador and the 6th spot

 

Gold Cup results **

• El Salvador : 1W - 1L - 1D
• Panama : 2W - 1L
• Canada : 2W - 1L*

*The game against Martinique got us no points

**None of these teams won in the Quarter-Finals, no X40 bonus

***Haiti won a QF game but they are unlikely to have surpassed us in the next ranking

****Honduras having won only 1 game are likely to stay put

*****Jamaica having advanced to Semi-Finals will make them somewhat out of reach

******Canada can battle for the 5th or 6th berth realistically

 

How Canada can advance

• Winning both Cuba games give us (2 points X 15 bonus formula)
• Beating the US* twice (2 points X 15 formula) or 1 time +a tie (1.5 points X 15 Formula)
• Winning in the Semi-Finals against one of expected winners (Mexico, Honduras or Costa Rica) gives us (1 point X 25 Formula). We just need to advance and avoid Mexico
• Salvador cannot advance to Championship phase and even a perfect score against Montserrat, Dominican Republic & St. Lucia won't put them out of reach due to those teams being significantly lower in points than they are. Canada can easily leapfrog them by advancing to Championship phase*
• Panama is with Mexico and Bermuda in League A. They are unlikely to win a game and winning both games against Bermuda won't get them that far ahead, being ranked much lower than they are

*Due to the difference between US and Canada, winning gets up a significant boost in points

Conclusion

1. At the end of the day, we are 100% in control of our destiny here and we're not in a situation where other team's performance will dictate if we make the Hex or not.
2. Reaching the final would all but guarantee we make the Hex.
3. Reaching the Hex by winning the group is also possible as the teams around us will be playing teams they are unlikely to beat or teams too low in the ranking to get them a good boost in points. Still beating the US is a must.

 

Question - if Canada plays some friendlies against higher ranked nations we will get more points correct ? 

 

[Ansem]

16 minutes ago, Binky said:

That's great because I would really not want to miss a first-round BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS vs US VIRGIN ISLANDS clash.

They faced each other and USVI won in CNL Qualifiers

[Binky]

4 minutes ago, Binky said:

Globally, with the New World FIFA Order, the game is becoming more and more elitist. The CONCACAF superpowers simply don't want to waste their time and fear of being upset by minnow soccer nations. Once your country slips significantly down the rankings, they will never again play against attractive opponents. Unless Canada moves up the FIFA rankings in a hurry, don't expect to many Canadian players to end up going to Europe in the foreseeable future. Like under the new format, how many European scouts are going to be aware of CONCACAF talent beyond the elite six countries? . 

The new CONCACAF format is even more elitist than the UEFA Champions League!

[Binky]

Just now, Ansem said:

They faced each other and USVI won in CNL Qualifiers

See I miss it? Were they good matches?

[Ansem]

4 minutes ago, SpecialK said:

Question - if Canada plays some friendlies against higher ranked nations we will get more points correct ? 

 

If we win it, yes but the multiplier is lower as they are only friendlies

FIFA Multipliers

• 05 – friendlies played outside the International Match Calendar windows
• 10 – friendlies played within the International Match Calendar windows
• 15 – Nations League matches (group stage)
• 25 – Nations League matches (play-offs and finals)
• 25 – Confederations' final competitions qualifiers, FIFA World Cup qualifiers
• 35 – Confederations' final competitions matches (before quarter-finals)
• 40 – Confederations' final competitions matches (quarter-finals and later)
• 50 – FIFA World Cup matches (before quarter-finals)
• 60 – FIFA World Cup matches (quarter-finals and later)

[Razcal]

I don't get it. People are acting like us making the hex is a given if we had the old method of qualification.

This gives us a way better chance to make the hex, and if we miss the hex it gives us a better chance at qualifying than we would have in the past.

Yall are loco.

[Razcal]

If we would have beaten Haiti like we should have we'd basically be in sixth as of the next rankings.

[Gian-Luca]

I think Concacaf have to kick Guadeloupe, Martinique and French Guiana out of Nations League & Gold Cup if they are going to use this system for WCQ in the future. Would that be unfair on those teams? For sure. But its unfair for any team that plays and beats them if they are kept in given the new ridiculous over-emphasis on FIFA rankings which matches against them do not count towards. I can only think of one team that has had two victories against that trio of teams this year and by a combined score of 8-1, now who would that be.......?

[Alex]

Or better yet just make them fifa members 

[CanadianSoccerFan]

4 hours ago, SkuseisLoose said:

For this to work the top 2 in the hex should be guaranteed a spot and then the 3rd place spot is contested between the winner of the tournament and the 3rd place hex teams. And then the fourth place team plays the runner up in the tournament for the intercontinental playoff spot. Otherwise imo there’s to little for the 7th to 35th place teams to play for.

I was thinking along similar lines but it would be two teams from the knockout competition against hex 3 and 4 in a round robin group September to November of 2021. Group winner qualifies and runner up goes Intercontinental. I could stomach that but when your only pathway is through another continent then it's beyond the pail

[SpecialK]

20 minutes ago, Alex said:

Or better yet just make them fifa members 

And add the points. 

 Why did that Trinidad and Tobago game have to be  a close non-friendly ! -  we would’ve gotten extra points out of it .  The only thing good out of this format it will force teams/ associations  to play their best squads and potentially play more Friendlies  cuz you need the points. 

[SpecialK]

38 minutes ago, Ansem said:

If we win it, yes but the multiplier is lower as they are only friendlies

FIFA Multipliers

• 05 – friendlies played outside the International Match Calendar windows
• 10 – friendlies played within the International Match Calendar windows
• 15 – Nations League matches (group stage)
• 25 – Nations League matches (play-offs and finals)
• 25 – Confederations' final competitions qualifiers, FIFA World Cup qualifiers
• 35 – Confederations' final competitions matches (before quarter-finals)
• 40 – Confederations' final competitions matches (quarter-finals and later)
• 50 – FIFA World Cup matches (before quarter-finals)
• 60 – FIFA World Cup matches (quarter-finals and later)

So  25 points per window (2 games) we can get. Giddy up !!! - it’s going to be a lot of soccer very exciting!!! 

Our roster pool is going to be tested hard ! 

Edited July 10, 2019 by SpecialK

[apbsmith]

1 hour ago, Binky said:

That's great because I would really not want to miss a first-round BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS vs US VIRGIN ISLANDS clash.

I thought your post/question said Canada games? That game, no promises.

[TOcanadafan]

6 hours ago, canadafan101 said:

lets make a realistic qualiying tournament for canada to qualify:

Round 1 - Top a group of USVI Puerto Rico and Guyana (90%)

Round 2 - Beat Guatemala home and away (70%)

Round 3 - Beat Jamaica home and away (50%)

Round 4 - Beat Panama home and away (40%)

Round 5 - Beat Costa Rica home and away (30%)

Round 6 - Beat Uraguay home and away (20%)

LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOO imagine..... i wouldnt even get excited about winning a world cup qualifier until like round 5

 

According to @PaulCarr on twitter (former ESPN stats guy) the 6th ranked team in the Hex has an approximate chance of 15% of qualifying for the World Cup and even if we improve some of those odds above:  0.9x.0.75x0.6x0.5x0.35x0.3 to about 2%, ... it would mean if we thought we had even a 15% chance of just making the Hex, we'd be better off with the old format (assuming we can't make it to #6 in FIFA rankings)

Edited July 10, 2019 by TOcanadafan

[Binky]

2 minutes ago, apbsmith said:

I thought your post/question said Canada games? That game, no promises.

It did. But what if Canada had to play against either one. Are CBC, TSN or Sportsnet going to send a crew down there to televise the match? Or better yet, will we have to pay one of those Mickey Mouse outfits to watch a streamed version? That's really going to introduce the Canadian national teams to a whole new audience. Heaven forbid, but should Canada gets eliminated at one of the first hurdles, then its going to be a long wait till they play a meaningful match again.

[TOcanadafan]

59 minutes ago, Razcal said:

If we would have beaten Haiti like we should have we'd basically be in sixth as of the next rankings.

If not, we'd be real close I think.  Now I get to get angry all over again about that loss.

[Daryn27]

1 hour ago, Razcal said:

I don't get it. People are acting like us making the hex is a given if we had the old method of qualification.

This gives us a way better chance to make the hex, and if we miss the hex it gives us a better chance at qualifying than we would have in the past.

Yall are loco.

So you’re saying with us being currently 30 points back from El Salvador we have a better chance at qualifying, even if you say we have a better chance going through the 7-35 path if we somehow win then we will still have to play the 4th place team of the hex then if we still win that probably face a South American nation in the intercontinental playoff how is that easier?

[apbsmith]

1 hour ago, TOcanadafan said:

According to @PaulCarr on twitter (former ESPN stats guy) the 6th ranked team in the Hex has an approximate chance of 15% of qualifying for the World Cup and even if we improve some of those odds above:  0.9x.0.75x0.6x0.5x0.35x0.3 to about 2%, ... it would mean if we thought we had even a 15% chance of just making the Hex, we'd be better off with the old format (assuming we can't make it to #6 in FIFA rankings)

Thanks for pointing me to that guys twitter, I love the probability # stuff. 

Here is a specific tweet for those interested in the difference between #6 & #7 from him 

 

[apbsmith]

Nations League just got real folks! 

Real quick.

[BrennanFan]

24 minutes ago, apbsmith said:

Nations League just got real folks! 

Real quick.

I would like to see the CSA confirm that we are not already eliminated from making the Hex, and set out what we need to do to get there.

[Addona]

2 hours ago, TOcanadafan said:

According to @PaulCarr on twitter (former ESPN stats guy) the 6th ranked team in the Hex has an approximate chance of 15% of qualifying for the World Cup and even if we improve some of those odds above:  0.9x.0.75x0.6x0.5x0.35x0.3 to about 2%, ... it would mean if we thought we had even a 15% chance of just making the Hex, we'd be better off with the old format (assuming we can't make it to #6 in FIFA rankings)

I was going to post something like this, although I had us at more like 7-9% of making it to the WC under the old format, and roughly 1-2% under the new format.

 

[Canadahamilton4]

3 hours ago, SpecialK said:

Question - if Canada plays some friendlies against higher ranked nations we will get more points correct ? 

 

Yes

[nolbertos]

3 hours ago, SpecialK said:

Question - if Canada plays some friendlies against higher ranked nations we will get more points correct ? 

 

We only get points if we win.  What makes you think we can beat a higher ranked team within CONCACAF or outside.  A higher ranked team on the other hand by beating Canada won’t get much points to boost there ranking, hence no high ranking team would want to play a friendly with us, unless there’s some incentive (eg pay all expenses here, etc)

[TOcanadafan]

11 minutes ago, Addona said:

I was going to post something like this, although I had us at more like 7-9% of making it to the WC under the old format, and roughly 1-2% under the new format.

 

Yes, these seem to be pretty good estimates.  7-9% with a fair format sells hope... this new format just makes me ask “what’s the point?”

[Binky]

4 hours ago, Ansem said:

If we win it, yes but the multiplier is lower as they are only friendlies

FIFA Multipliers

• 05 – friendlies played outside the International Match Calendar windows
• 10 – friendlies played within the International Match Calendar windows
• 15 – Nations League matches (group stage)
• 25 – Nations League matches (play-offs and finals)
• 25 – Confederations' final competitions qualifiers, FIFA World Cup qualifiers
• 35 – Confederations' final competitions matches (before quarter-finals)
• 40 – Confederations' final competitions matches (quarter-finals and later)
• 50 – FIFA World Cup matches (before quarter-finals)
• 60 – FIFA World Cup matches (quarter-finals and later)

Using the FIFA Multipliers above, I wonder how co-hosting the 2026 World Cup Final, and not having to qualify, will impact Canada's ranking?