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The Road to Qatar.

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8 minutes ago, Alex said:

There’s a scenario where we could only have to beat the following teams and make the World Cup:

3 minnows, curaçao, El Salvador, Haiti, Panama, New Zealand. 

I get the format is weird but that’s a pretty easy path. 

or imagine this:

We smash 3 minnows, Haiti, Panama, Jamaica and Mexico. We go 14-0-0 with 100 goals for and 0 goals against. Then tie Brazil 0-0 and lose in Brazil 1-0. We miss the World Cup

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11 minutes ago, AvroArrow said:

This would never fly in UEFA or CONMEBOL.

So jealous of CONMEBOL.  I've suggested in past years a decagonal and was roundly shouted down here as being nuts. So what if it's 18 games with some dead rubbers.  It's more fair than the previous process and way more fair than this current cup competition catastrophe.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, canadafan101 said:

or imagine this:

We smash 3 minnows, Haiti, Panama, Jamaica and Mexico. We go 14-0-0 with 100 goals for and 0 goals against. Then tie Brazil 0-0 and lose in Brazil 1-0. We miss the World Cup

Or how about we go back to the semi final round and play Mexico, Trinidad and panama like in 2000. And lose.

or we go there and play Guatemala, Costa Rica and Honduras and lose again. Like in 2004.

what about playing jamaica, Mexico and Honduras like in 2008. Ahh we lost again! 

Maybe we would have better luck in 2012. Cuba, Panama and Honduras. Nope we lost.

2016 was our year right? Mexico, El Salvador and Honduras, I mean we beat them at home! Nope still lost.

My point is we lost every semi final round since qualifying for the 98 hex. Sure we might go all the way and lose to Brazil. I’d take that over the last 5 nightmarish early exits I had to witness. 

Edited by Alex

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1 minute ago, Alex said:

Or how about we go back to the semi final round and play Mexico, Trinidad and panama like in 2000. And lose.

or we go there and play Guatemala, Costa Rica and Honduras and lose again. Like in 2004.

what about playing jamaica, Mexico and Honduras like in 2008. Ahh we lost again! 

Maybe we would have better luck in 2012. Cuba, Panama and Honduras. Nope we lost.

2016 was our year right? Mexico, El Salvador and Honduras, I mean we beat them at home! Nope still lost.

My point is we lost every semi final round since qualifying for the 98 hex. Sure we might go all the way and lose to Brazil. I’d take that over the last 5 nightmarish early exist I had to witness. 

those are all fair legitimate ways of losing 

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2 minutes ago, canadafan101 said:

those are all fair legitimate ways of losing 

Yes for sure, you’re right. So if we get the Oceania winner or a team like Bahrain in an interconfederation playoff everyone on here will be licking their lips. The 5 and 6th place hex team will be complaining we had the easiest path of all time. 

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54 minutes ago, costarg said:

I don't get why there is so much negativity here.  Its all in our hands, no one got ripped off or special treatment.  

We can either win games to make it to the hex and take our chances there, or coast and play in the 7-35 bracket. 

Either way, ITS IN OUR HANDS.  No one has gotten concacafed here.  Saying this benefits the USA is ********, they got eliminated from the hex last time around.  Why would they be confident this time around?  How are they being favored exactly?

Also, how can someone be so confident about finishing top 3 in the hex, while also being worried about coming out of the 7-35?  There are realisticly 6 ok teams going for .5 spot in the 7-35, but 6 strong teams in the hex playing for 3 spots. 

We'll only know which route is better after the draw.  If its conmebol, then yes, we must go for the hex, anyone else and i'd gamble on the 7-35 bracket.

  

That's not a good reason to say everything is OK. Qualifying is literally in everyone's own hands. Montserrat, if they win every game from now on, can also make it to the world cup. The problem is that this format has set us up with an unjustified huge barrier in comparison to other teams of similar quality. Others have outlined in more detail, but there is no excuse for the cavern of difficulty difference between the #6 seed and the #7 seed. Ultimately, this format benefits the top 2 (USA/mexico no longer have to play prelims) and the bottom 20 (who get to play more WCQ games). This all comes at the expense of the mid tier powers, of which we are one of them.

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18 minutes ago, Alex said:

The 5 and 6th place hex team will be complaining we had the easiest path of all time. 

Those teams will have failed to better the 4th place team in the hex.  They got their chance already. The team from the playoff will not have had any.

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28 minutes ago, Addona said:

Let's put it this way: suppose you are the #6 team in the rankings.  Your chances of being eliminated *before* the HEX have dropped to 0. They would certainly not be 0 otherwise.  One might say, "but the #6 team has little chance of finishing top 3".  Sure, but that's not who they're competing against necessarily.  The difference in quality between #4, #5, and #6 is rather small.  What are the chances that #6 finishes ahead of #4 and #5?  I don't think it's crazy to say that it's 33%.  So, even if the #6 has a 0% chance of finishing top 3, they have a 33% chance of finishing in 4th.  At that point, they need to win 2 home-and-away tilts.  In the first, they would likely have a 50% chance of coming out on top.  In the second, maybe it's lower, say 40%.  That means #6 has roughly a 7% chance of qualifying for the WC.

What about the #7 ranked team?  There is essentially zero difference in quality between #6 and #7.  But, in the new system, there is no way that the #7 ranked team has a 7% chance of qualifying for the WC ...

If we look past the math and consider the ball is round and the pitch is flat (at least on most concacaf pitches)..... There are two roads to Qatar:

1- The hex: 10 games vs very good competition, most teams are better than us.  Finishing 4th would be an excellent result for Canada, probably the best we could honestly hope for.  Finishing 4th gets you to the exact same spot as finishing 1st of 7-35.  

2- Round of 7-35: 10 or 12 games vs some minnows and perhaps 2-3 teams equal to Canada.  Finishing 1st gets you to the same spot as finishing 4th in the hex.

If we don't win the 7-35 round, we don't deserve to be there.  If we don't finish above 4th in the hex, we also don't deserve to be there.  But to say that teams have a better chance in the hex is false.  Finishing 3rd or above is the only scenario that is favorable, and that's a long shot, way more difficult than winning the 7-35. If one feels we've got a good shot at finishing 3rd or above, than we should be equally as arrogant about the 7-35 path.

Bottom line is: who do would we play in the draw?  Thats the clincher.  If its conmebol we need to go for 3rd spot in the hex.

 

 

 

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I am still outraged, but I had to do a bit of research. This doesn't excuse this farce, but maybe it lessens the sting a little bit.

In the last 4 World Cup cycles, the teams that won the 3.5 spots were all ranked in the top 6 based on when the seeding was taken. Only 4 teams out of the 24 top 6 teams over those 4 World Cups didn't make it to the hex (Cuba in 2014 was replaced by Panama, Panama in 2010 was replaced by El Salvador, Honduras and Jamaica in 2006 were replaced by Guatemala and Panama). I didn't go earlier because the data was getting harder to dig up

Here is the quick and dirty table I whipped up. Excuse the complete lack of effort in making it understandable/readable.

Year Top 6 by rank 6 Hex teams Teams that qualified
2018 Costa Rica Mexico Mexico
  Mexico Costa Rica Costa Rica
  United States Panama Panama
  Honduras Honduras Honduras (lost ICQ)
  Panama United States  
  Trinidad and Tobago Trinidad and Tobago  
2014 United States United States United States
  Mexico Costa Rica Costa Rica
  Honduras Honduras Honduras
  Jamaica Mexico Mexico
  Costa Rica Panama  
  Cuba Jamaica  
2010 Mexico United States United States
  United States Mexico Mexico
  Costa Rica Honduras Honduras
  Honduras Costa Rica Costa Rica (lost ICQ)
  Panama El Salvador  
  Trinidad and Tobago Trinidad and Tobago  
2006 Mexico United States United States
  United States Mexico Mexico
  Costa Rica Costa Rica Costa Rica
  Honduras Trinidad and Tobago Trinidad and Tobago
  Jamaica Guatemala  
  Trinidad and Tobago Panama  

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1 minute ago, dyslexic nam said:

Tinfoilhatism taken to the meta level.  Nice.

If yer gonna conspiracy.... go all the way.

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1 minute ago, narduch said:

I wonder what the Venn diagram is for people who are ok with this format and people who support keeping Herdman in charge. 

You thinking it looks like a single circle?

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I think this gets approved as the top 4 or 5 teams in the rankings now would clearly support it. Best chance of qualifying for the World Cup ever given to any side in the history of qualifying in any confederation. 

The 30-42 ranked sides like it as this guarantees them matches and they have no hope of qualifying. The 20-29 ranked sides like it as they have virtually zero hope of qualifying but with some real luck could sneak into the last 8 prolong their World Cup qualifying. The 12-19 like it as they have little chance of qualifying but with a luck of the draw and a few lucky bounces they could even see themselves in the semi finals or even finals of qualifying which would generate lots of interest.  It’s those in the 7-12 category that are truly screwed but that’s only about 6 sides.  

Personally I can’t believe FIFA would approve a qualifying format where 85% of confederation’s sides only chance of qualifying for the World Cup is through a play off with another confederation. That’s just outrageous 

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Posted (edited)

I hope Mexico finishes fourth in the HEX. Just for Mt. Vic.😜

And then we'll finally get to see Herdman's A-team.

Edited by Binky

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, costarg said:

If we look past the math and consider the ball is round and the pitch is flat (at least on most concacaf pitches)..... There are two roads to Qatar:

1- The hex: 10 games vs very good competition, most teams are better than us.  Finishing 4th would be an excellent result for Canada, probably the best we could honestly hope for.  Finishing 4th gets you to the exact same spot as finishing 1st of 7-35.  

2- Round of 7-35: 10 or 12 games vs some minnows and perhaps 2-3 teams equal to Canada.  Finishing 1st gets you to the same spot as finishing 4th in the hex.

If we don't win the 7-35 round, we don't deserve to be there.  If we don't finish above 4th in the hex, we also don't deserve to be there.  But to say that teams have a better chance in the hex is false.  Finishing 3rd or above is the only scenario that is favorable, and that's a long shot, way more difficult than winning the 7-35. If one feels we've got a good shot at finishing 3rd or above, than we should be equally as arrogant about the 7-35 path.

Bottom line is: who do would we play in the draw?  Thats the clincher.  If its conmebol we need to go for 3rd spot in the hex.

Let me try one more argument.

Suppose we assume that the 4,5, 6, ranked teams have no chance of finishing in the top 3, and we have a 100% chance of advancing past the minnow stage of the non-HEX tournament.  I don't think either of those things is true, but let's pretend they are, just for the sake of argument.

In order to get to the same position as the 4th place HEX team, we need to outperform 3 teams (win the QF, SF, and Final) of the non-HEX tournament.  The 4th place HEX team only had to outperform 2 teams (5th and 6th place).

Finally, and this part is crucial to the whole argument, 3 > 2.

Edited by Addona

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I really like this structure. While the hex is going down, simultaneously there will be a knockout round going down. So guaranteed instead of years past sitting on my couch going oh well, I'm miserable for the next 3 years.. I'll be watching Canada play meaningful games, and hopefully attended in person. I dont get the crying? People have no vision for anything new

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11 minutes ago, Addona said:

Let me try one more argument.

Suppose we assume that the 4,5, 6, ranked teams have no chance of finishing in the top 3, and we have a 100% chance of advancing past the minnow stage of the non-HEX tournament.  I don't think either of those things is true, but let's pretend they are, just for the sake of argument.

In order to get to the same position as the 4th place HEX team, we need to outperform 3 teams (win the QF, SF, and Final) of the non-HEX tournament.  The 4th place HEX team only had to outperform 2 teams (5th and 6th place).

Finally, and this part is crucial to the whole argument, 3 > 2.

I see your point, if we say the teams in 4th to 10th are all equal strength, then yes, ok, playing 3 opponents vs 2 is more difficult. But that's not the case.   Playing vs the 4th and 5th placed teams (if Canada is 6th) is more difficult than playing (worst case scenario) 8-9-10 (if canada is 7th).  

Chances of actually facing the three best teams in the 7-35 are slim.  Meanwhile, you know you're facing the toughest teams in the hex.  I'm not against that, I think it'll be a good measuring stick.  I just don't see one side being necessarily "easier" than the other.

It all comes down to our own performance.  Are we good enough?  It'll be tough either way, 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Alex said:

There’s a scenario where we could only have to beat the following teams and make the World Cup:

3 minnows, curaçao, El Salvador, Haiti, Panama, New Zealand. 

I get the format is weird but that’s a pretty easy path. 

and theres a scenario we have to beat Uruguay/Chile, Honduras/Costa Rica, Panama/ Haiti in successive home and away ties. 

the format is weird and the paths are stupid. 

Edited by king1010

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, costarg said:

If we look past the math and consider the ball is round and the pitch is flat (at least on most concacaf pitches)..... There are two roads to Qatar:

1- The hex: 10 games vs very good competition, most teams are better than us.  Finishing 4th would be an excellent result for Canada, probably the best we could honestly hope for.  Finishing 4th gets you to the exact same spot as finishing 1st of 7-35.  

2- Round of 7-35: 10 or 12 games vs some minnows and perhaps 2-3 teams equal to Canada.  Finishing 1st gets you to the same spot as finishing 4th in the hex.

If we don't win the 7-35 round, we don't deserve to be there.  If we don't finish above 4th in the hex, we also don't deserve to be there.  But to say that teams have a better chance in the hex is falseFinishing 3rd or above is the only scenario that is favorable, and that's a long shot, way more difficult than winning the 7-35. If one feels we've got a good shot at finishing 3rd or above, than we should be equally as arrogant about the 7-35 path.

Bottom line is: who do would we play in the draw?  Thats the clincher.  If its conmebol we need to go for 3rd spot in the hex.

 

 

 

You're wrong in the bold part. We could win rounds 7-35 and "deserve" to be there yet may still not make it if we get drawn a tough intercontinental spot. 

If they wanted this ridiculous format to have any sense of fairness they would have had teams 7 to 35 playing for a full spot, not a half spot. 

Edited by king1010

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1 hour ago, narduch said:

I wonder what the Venn diagram is for people who are ok with this format and people who support keeping Herdman in charge. 

Why don't you run a poll.  I would think it's no more than 25%...like the percentage who want Herdman gone now.

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