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Binky

The Road to Qatar.

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I haven't been following any soccer for the last year or so. I got back into it for the WWC and Gold Cup. My two cents based on the performances at the Gold Cup:

The team has improved big time and there are some genuine scorers that can make a difference. This being said, the fact that we were not able to beat Mexico and the collapse against Haiti shows me that we are not there. We have improved big time but so has most of Concacaf. 

WCQ: Let's be honest, we had very little chance to make the Hex under the old system. I like this new qualifying system. It rewards the top teams. Unfortunately, we are not one of the top teams. We will only qualify for the World Cup when we can beat teams like Mexico and the USA. We are certainly not there yet. Nations League will be a good test and I hope we will get a result against the USA. I don't realistically think we will but I hope we play better than we are.

That is my two cents after being away from the game for a while and looking at things in a more realistic way. Canada is not a top football nation at this time and we have to lower our expectations.

 

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This format is ********. 

It only really benefits Mexico and to a lesser degree the other 5 hex teams. 

After that 6 or 7 decent teams battle for essentially a quarter World Cup spot. 

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From a development standpoint, the old system guaranteed us 6 high level games.  Now we are only guaranteed 2 games against non-minnow opposition. 

Conversely, every single game after the group stage will be absolutely critical.  Every game will have that do or die feel we usually only felt in the old system at the end of the group stage away in San Pedro Sula. 

Lets hope we can make a run, and may God have mercy.

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4 hours ago, canadafan101 said:

This is the most insane dumbest competition EVER. For Canada to Qualify..... Finish at the top of a 4 team group? Win a quarter final, semi final, final....Then play the 4th best team in the fake hex. Then we have to beat another playoff??? WE HAVE A 1/116 CHANCE OF QUALIFYING IN THIS FORMAT assuming all games are 50/50. BUT 6 magical teams go into the hex with an over 50% change of qualifying. This is the most unfair competition ever. They divided up CONCACAF into 2 groups. Team 6 gets a 50% chance to qualify, team 7 gets 0.8% chance OMG THIS IS A DISGRACE

 

Even if we magically are the top team out of 29 teams we dont get to play costa rica, usa, mexico AT ALL to qualify?? WTF DOES THAT EVEN MEAN.

NO COMPETITION HAS EVER BEEN THIS STUPID 

Regarding the bold above, you are being optimistic. 3 of the 8 groups will only have 3 teams, which means less ranking points for the winner of that group which could kneecap them for the next World Cup Qualifying (a reminder we still aren't 100% confirmed to be granted an automatic spot).

The only way this could be worse is if instead of using FIFA ranking they took a page out of the CSA's book and used the date the FA was established for each country :D

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Posted (edited)

Going forward this is my assessment going forward

As of June 14

1086284467_CONCACAFranking.PNG.4a7f71b5fdd0a4727fb1ff16d26ce9a9.PNG

Ranking points Multipliers / coefficient (Source FIFA)*

The formula is complicated so only going with the multiplier, also beating teams higher than you score you more points*

  • Gold Cup Group Stage X35
  • Gold Cup Group Knockout Round X40
  • Nation League group stage X15
  • Nation League group Championship X25

Current situation

30 points separates Canada from El Salvador and the 6th spot

 

Gold Cup results **

  • El Salvador : 1W - 1L - 1D
  • Panama : 2W - 1L
  • Canada : 2W - 1L*

*The game against Martinique got us no points

**None of these teams won in the Quarter-Finals, no X40 bonus

***Haiti won a QF game but they are unlikely to have surpassed us in the next ranking

****Honduras having won only 1 game are likely to stay put

*****Jamaica having advanced to Semi-Finals will make them somewhat out of reach

******Canada can battle for the 5th or 6th berth realistically

 

How Canada can advance

  • Winning both Cuba games give us (2 points X 15 bonus formula)
  • Beating the US* twice (2 points X 15 formula) or 1 time +a tie (1.5 points X 15 Formula)
  • Winning in the Semi-Finals against one of expected winners (Mexico, Honduras or Costa Rica) gives us (1 point X 25 Formula). We just need to advance and avoid Mexico
  • Salvador cannot advance to Championship phase and even a perfect score against Montserrat, Dominican Republic & St. Lucia won't put them out of reach due to those teams being significantly lower in points than they are. Canada can easily leapfrog them by advancing to Championship phase*
  • Panama is with Mexico and Bermuda in League A. They are unlikely to win a game and winning both games against Bermuda won't get them that far ahead, being ranked much lower than they are

*Due to the difference between US and Canada, winning gets up a significant boost in points

Conclusion

  1. At the end of the day, we are 100% in control of our destiny here and we're not in a situation where other team's performance will dictate if we make the Hex or not.
  2. Reaching the final would all but guarantee we make the Hex.
  3. Reaching the Hex by winning the group is also possible as the teams around us will be playing teams they are unlikely to beat or teams too low in the ranking to get them a good boost in points. Still beating the US is a must.

 

Edited by Ansem

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, admin said:
  • In addition, the system creates a confusing dilemma for those teams on the cusp of the Hex. Is it better for a team on the edge like El Salvador, Panama, or Canada to be in the top-tier round robin with a shot at an automatic bid should they surprise over the course of 10 matches? Remember, the bottom two teams in the Hex are fully eliminated. Or is it better to be in the lower-tier creation against theoretically lesser opponents, only able to earn the half-bid but progressing as the favored side for much of the qualifying cycle? If they prefer the latter, would teams throw games between now and then to drop in the rankings and not risk a spot in the Hex?
Edited by Ansem

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4 hours ago, canadafan101 said:

lets make a realistic qualiying tournament for canada to qualify:

Round 1 - Top a group of USVI Puerto Rico and Guyana (90%)

Round 2 - Beat Guatemala home and away (70%)

Round 3 - Beat Jamaica home and away (50%)

Round 4 - Beat Panama home and away (40%)

Round 5 - Beat Costa Rica home and away (30%)

Round 6 - Beat Uraguay home and away (20%)

LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOO imagine..... i wouldnt even get excited about winning a world cup qualifier until like round 5

 

If I did my math correctly (just multiply the percentages, right? Can it be that simple?) using your approximations, that would give us a 0.7% chance of making it to the World Cup in that scenario.

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2 minutes ago, Kent said:

If I did my math correctly (just multiply the percentages, right? Can it be that simple?) using your approximations, that would give us a 0.7% chance of making it to the World Cup in that scenario.

Honestly, a 1% chance sounds pretty accurate. 

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6 minutes ago, Kent said:

If I did my math correctly (just multiply the percentages, right? Can it be that simple?) using your approximations, that would give us a 0.7% chance of making it to the World Cup in that scenario.

exactly correct haha and i might be optimistic in the later rounds

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Just now, SpursFlu said:

I kinda think we'll be in the Hex..  am I alone?

We pretty much have to make it to the Nations League final to make it to the Hex.  So we have to beat the US in our group and win a knock out game against a team like Jamaica and Costa Rica.  Then we would be about the 5th or 6th ranked team.

Is there any friendlies that we can schedule between now and then?  Maybe a 2 game, 3 team tournament between El Salvador and Haiti in the January window?

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43 minutes ago, BrennanFan said:

From a development standpoint, the old system guaranteed us 6 high level games.  Now we are only guaranteed 2 games against non-minnow opposition. 

Conversely, every single game after the group stage will be absolutely critical.  Every game will have that do or die feel we usually only felt in the old system at the end of the group stage away in San Pedro Sula. 

Lets hope we can make a run, and may God have mercy.

I'm surprised this hasn't come up yet. For as much as I read about our need to have friendlies against quality competition (outside of the need for FIFA points), this is a real tournament and a chance to play 10 games against very good opponents. 

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Also why on earth would ES and Panama schedule friendlies with us? The onus is on us to catch up to them. If they refuse to play us the only way up is by scheduling friendlies against stiffer competition. 

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3 hours ago, dyslexic nam said:

Someone just tell me if I should be rage-drinking or celebrating. 

Rage drinking... definitely rage drinking... this format has definitely lowered our chances IMO.

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15 minutes ago, Ansem said:

Going forward this is my assessment going forward

As of June 14

1086284467_CONCACAFranking.PNG.4a7f71b5fdd0a4727fb1ff16d26ce9a9.PNG

Ranking points Multipliers / coefficient (Source FIFA)*

The formula is complicated so only going with the multiplier, also beating teams higher than you score you more points*

  • Gold Cup Group Stage X35
  • Gold Cup Group Knockout Round X40
  • Nation League group stage X15
  • Nation League group Championship X25

Current situation

30 points separates Canada from El Salvador and the 6th spot

 

Gold Cup results **

  • El Salvador : 1W - 1L - 1D
  • Panama : 2W - 1L
  • Canada : 2W - 1L*

*The game against Martinique got us no points

**None of these teams won in the Quarter-Finals, no X40 bonus

***Haiti won a QF game but they are unlikely to have surpassed us in the next ranking

****Honduras having won only 1 game are likely to stay put

*****Jamaica having advanced to Semi-Finals will make them somewhat out of reach

******Canada can battle for the 5th or 6th berth realistically

 

How Canada can advance

  • Winning both Cuba games give us (2 points X 15 bonus formula) ~ 60pts
  • Beating the US* twice (2 points + X15 formula) or 1 time +a tie (1.5 points X 15 Formula)
  • Winning in the Semi-Finals against one of expected winners (Mexico, Honduras or Costa Rica) gives us (2 points X 25 Formula). We just need to advance and avoid Mexico
  • Salvador cannot advance to Championship phase and even a perfect score against Montserrat, Dominican Republic & St. Lucia won't put them out of reach due to those teams being significantly lower in points than they are. Canada can easily leapfrog them by advancing to Championship phase*
  • Panama is with Mexico and Bermuda in League A. They are unlikely to win a game and winning both games against Bermuda won't get them that far ahead, being ranked

*Due to the difference between US and Canada, winning gets up a significant boost in points

Conclusion

  1. At the end of the day, we are 100% in control of our destiny here and we're not in a situation where other team's performance will dictate if we make the Hex or not.
  2. Reaching the final would all but guarantee we make the Hex.
  3. Reaching the Hex by winning the group is also possible as the teams around us will be playing teams they are unlikely to beat or teams too low in the ranking to get them a good boost in points. Still beating the US is a must.

 

Good work my friend.. and there you have it folks... beat the US... I say equal pay for Canadians.. let's get em

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Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, narduch said:

I just can't get over how unbelievably awful this format is. 

I have to give some credit to the eternal optimists trying to make it sound like more games are better

The team that finishes 4th in the hex also have a massive advantage in the cross over IMO.  10 high intensity matches vs a team that has played 12 games with maybe 4 high intensity matches against softer competition. Also because competition is not as strong and so many games any good coaching staff from the hex side will have a great scouting database to identify areas of weaknesses that haven't been exposed yet. What I mean is  the non hex side will probably have their own weaknesses they are unaware since they won't have been tested or exposed the same way.

Also 12 games for the other side,  one banana slip away from ousted.

Watching our boys play more together, is definitely a selfish positive for me, but whatever side of qualifying you are on, we get a ton of games. I guess it depends if you thought you liked our chances better in 2022 or 2026 if you want us on #7-35.

When is the draw date for the .5 spot?... If somehow CONCACAF gets draw with Oceania maybe I re consider my opinion on the format.

Edited by apbsmith
Had number of games wrong 10-12

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7 minutes ago, Binky said:

How many of Canada's away games in CONCACAF minnow countries will be televised?

I would assume with today's tech and being WCQ they should all be.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, apbsmith said:

I would assume with today's tech and being WCQ they should all be.

That's great because I would really not want to miss a first-round BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS vs US VIRGIN ISLANDS clash.

Edited by Binky

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Honestly before this I mocked those who studied the rankings religiously... In terms of us qualifying I don’t know what this does to our chances. I don’t like how 6 teams basically get a free entrance into the hex tho based on an idiotic ranking

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, canta15 said:

Honestly before this I mocked those who studied the rankings religiously... In terms of us qualifying I don’t know what this does to our chances. I don’t like how 6 teams basically get a free entrance into the hex tho based on an idiotic ranking

Globally, with the New World FIFA Order, the game is becoming more and more elitist. The CONCACAF superpowers simply don't want to waste their time and fear of being upset by minnow soccer nations. Once your country slips significantly down the rankings, they will never again play against attractive opponents. Unless Canada moves up the FIFA rankings in a hurry, don't expect to many Canadian players to end up going to Europe in the foreseeable future. Like under the new format, how many European scouts are going to be aware of CONCACAF talent beyond the elite six countries? . 

Edited by Binky

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