The Road to Qatar.

[Kent]

Out of curiosity, I compiled this for 2018 WCQ

2 games: 13 teams - Bahamas, British Virgin Islands, US Virgin Islands, Turks and Caicos Islands, Anguilla, Cayman Islands, Montserrat, Guyana, Saint Lucia, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Cuba, Suriname

4 games: 7 teams - Dominica, Bermuda, Barbados, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Grenada, Aruba, Antigua and Barbuda

6 games: 3 teams - Curacao, Belize, Nicaragua

8 games: 2 teams - Haiti, Jamaica

10 games: 4 teams - Canada, El Salvador, Guatemala, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

16 games: 5 teams - Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama, United States, Trinidad and Tobago

18 games: 1 team - Honduras (including inter-continental playoff)

I can't quite compile the same numbers precisely for 2022 qualifying because of the 3 team groups in the 7-35 tournament. For example, there will be a different number of games for a team from a group of 4 going to the semi final, vs the number of games from a 3 team group going to the semi final.

[Binky]

Also out of curiosity, consider the following:

1) The 2019 CONCACAF Gold Cup ran from June 15th to July 7th.

2) Concacaf Announced the format for the 2022 FIFA World Cup Confederation Qualifiers on July 10th.

Should the announcement not have been made before the Gold Cup kicked off?

Wouldn't coaches be more inclinded to field their strongest line-ups for every match if they had know about Mt. Vic's format in advance?

Who and how many CONCACAF committee members knew what Mt. Vic's format was before it was announced?

Is it possible these individuals could have leaked the new format to their Football Associations, thus giving them an advantage over those Football Associations left in the day?

[Blackdude]

50 minutes ago, Binky said:

Also out of curiosity, consider the following:

1) The 2019 CONCACAF Gold Cup ran from June 15th to July 7th.

2) Concacaf Announced the format for the 2022 FIFA World Cup Confederation Qualifiers on July 10th.

Should the announcement not have been made before the Gold Cup kicked off?

Wouldn't coaches be more inclinded to field their strongest line-ups for every match if they had know about Mt. Vic's format in advance?

Who and how many CONCACAF committee members knew what Mt. Vic's format was before it was announced?

Is it possible these individuals could have leaked the new format to their Football Associations, thus giving them an advantage over those Football Associations left in the day?

1) Sure.

2) Not really, unless their federation didn't tell them about it.

3) From the looks of it, all knew except Guatemala who was suspended when this format was decided

4) See 3)

[Binky]

3 hours ago, Blackdude said:

1) Sure.

2) Not really, unless their federation didn't tell them about it.

3) From the looks of it, all knew except Guatemala who was suspended when this format was decided

4) See 3)

re 2) Does this mean that Herdman must have known, prior to the Gold Cup match against Mexico, that the FIFA/Coca-Cola rankings were going to be used to determine which countries get into the HEX next year?

[Kent]

It does seem odd that they wouldn’t let the fans know before the tournament. It puts more importance on the tournament, so why not let people know in order to draw more interest?

[Binky]

3 hours ago, Kent said:

It does seem odd that they wouldn’t let the fans know before the tournament. It puts more importance on the tournament, so why not let people know in order to draw more interest?

I think if everybody would have know up front, Canada would have tried harder to beat Mexico. However, since we didn't know, we took it easy on the Mexicans and let them off the hook.

Edited July 21, 2019 by Binky

[Binky]

On 7/9/2019 at 4:49 AM, king1010 said:

Yes announcing the format sooner rather than later will be beneficial to all. It won’t be top 6 in fifa rankings to the hex and everyone else is out before it began. 

I think you should phone the CONCACAF complaint department @ 604.699.2277 (ask for Mt. Vic)

Edited July 21, 2019 by Binky

[Binky]

Tell him Binky sent you!

[Binky]

1 hour ago, Binky said:

I think you should phone the CONCACAF complaint department @ 604.699.2277 (ask for Mt. Vic)

We both want what's best for Canadian soccer.

Edited July 21, 2019 by Binky

[Binky]

20 hours ago, Binky said:

We both want what's best for Canadian soccer.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. We must be in 10-foot pole country again.

Like I said, Mt. Vic and I both want what's best for Canadian soccer. But, that doesn't mean we want the same thing.

It seems like quite a few that have participated in this thread, really like Mt. Vic idea of Canada traveling the Road to Qatar via the 7-35 route. Like really? What ever happened to Canadian confidence? You all know what I'm talking about. The confidence your Canadian grandfathers had when they came and liberated the Netherlands. If it was for the confidence of your grandfathers I wouldn't be here!

Well, unlike those who like Mt. Vic's 7-35 route, I've got oodles of confidence in our players taking the Hex route to Qatar.

Yes, of course, those HEX matches are way more difficult! But those are the kind of matches our players want to play!!!

I am confident that our lads are going to kick some YANKEE derriere in the Nations League and that we are going to make the HEX, but not thanks to Mt. Vic's format. We are going to earn it with Canadian confidence, just like our Canadian grandfather did 75 years ago! 

[Binky]

On 7/19/2019 at 10:07 PM, An Observer said:

This!

This ... is the fact: The Road to Qatar goes through the United States.

Canada has not beaten the United States since 1990, when it won 1-0 in Burnaby, B.C. (and this was considered a B-international)

Canada's record versus the United States since then has been:  0-9-6

This streak has to end!!!

 

[Ansem]

FIFA ranking as of today

 

Edited July 25, 2019 by Ansem

[Binky]

So what are the two countries ahead of Canada (that we need to pass) doing that Canada is not doing? Well, the answer is very simple: They play more matches! Their results aren't all that impressive, but their national associations spend money, which the CSA does not!!! In the case of Panama, especially. The Panamanians have traveled all over to world to play matches against quality opposition. That's what qualifying for a World Cup Final does for a country! What does the CSA do? Well I'll tell you! The CSA brags about all the goals Canada scores (all against minnows)! The CSA brags about being undefeated in so many matches (all against minnows). The CSA b_tches about how little money it has to work with! Basically, the CSA does F all! The only matches that the CMNT play are the those they are required to play in international competitions! The CSA is the main reason that Canada finds itself in 8th place of the FIFA/Coca-Cola rankings behind El Salvador and Panama. It is quite obvious that the CSA does not want Canada to succeed on the Road to Qatar!!!

Final! Here are the results for  El Salvador, Panama and Canada over the past year:

El Salvador (13 matches)

08/09/18  Montserrat  1-2   El Salvador

11/09/18  Brazil  5-0  El Salvador

13/10/18  El Salvador  3-0  Barbados

16/11/18  Bermuda  1-0  El Salvador

20/11/18  El Salvador  1-0  Haiti

06/03/19  El Salvador  3-1  Guatemala

23/03/19  El Salvador  2-0  Jamaica

26/03/19  Peru  0-2  El Salvador

02/06/19  El Salvador  1 - 0  Haiti

09/06/19  Japan  2 - 0  El Salvador

17/06/19  Curaçao  0 - 1  El Salvador

21/06/19  El Salvador  0 - 0  Jamaica

25/06/19  Honduras  4 - 0  El Salvador

Panama (14 matches)

11 September 2018  Panama  0–2  Venezuela

12 October 2018  Japan  3–0  Panama

16 October 2018  South Korea  2–2  Panama

16 November 2018  Honduras  1–0  Panama

20 November 2018  Panama  1–2  Ecuador

27 January 2019  United States  3–0  Panama

23 March 2019  Brazil  1–1  Panama

29 May 2019  Panama  0–0  Basque Country

3 June 2019  Colombia  3–0  Panama

7 June 2019  Uruguay  3–0  Panama

18 June 2019  Panama  2–0  Trinidad and Tobago

22 June 2019  Guyana  2–4  Panama

26 June 2019  Panama  0–1  United States

30 June 2019  Jamaica  1–0  Panama

Canada (8 matches)

September 9, 2018	2019–20 CONCACAF Nations League qualifying	Bradenton, United States	U.S. Virgin Islands	8–0	Osorio  6', Cavallini  9', 45', David  32', 37', Hoilett  50', Larin  60', 80'
October 16, 2018	2019–20 CONCACAF Nations League qualifying	Toronto, Canada	Dominica	5–0	David  3', Hoilett  14', Cavallini  18' (pen.), Joseph  47' (o.g.), Larin  82'
November 18, 2018	2019–20 CONCACAF Nations League qualifying	Basseterre, Saint Kitts and Nevis	Saint Kitts and Nevis	1–0	Hutchinson  44'

March 24, 2019	2019–20 CONCACAF Nations League qualifying	Vancouver, Canada	French Guiana	4–1	Hoilett  11', Cavallini  39', 50', David  41'
June 15, 2019	2019 CONCACAF Gold Cup	Pasadena, United States	Martinique	4–0	David  33', 53', Hoilett  63', Arfield  67'
June 19, 2019	2019 CONCACAF Gold Cup	Denver, United States	Mexico	1–3	Cavallini  75'
June 23, 2019	2019 CONCACAF Gold Cup	Charlotte, United States	Cuba	7–0	David  3', 71', 77', Cavallini  21', 43', 45+1', Hoilett  50'
June 29, 2019	2019 CONCACAF Gold Cup	Houston, United States	Haiti	2–3	David  18', Cavallini  28'

[apbsmith]

Maaaaannn so... 

If our non official friendly WIN with T&T was ACTUALLY official + closing out the 2nd half vs Haiti for a win, we would be neck and neck with EL Salvador & Honduras for #5-6. Ugh, oh well, have to move forward but still hurts.

So we have a 30 point mountain to climb now, Nation Leagues can't come soon enough!

Edited July 25, 2019 by apbsmith

[Ansem]

What's interesting is the massive bump Haiti got by advancing in the Gold Cup. If Canada can win the group and advance in CNL, Top 6 is very attainable.

Best scenario is beating the USA, avoiding Mexico in the semi-Finals.

Reaching the Finals would qualify us for the HEX, winning the group could prove enough

 

Edited July 25, 2019 by Ansem

[jtpc]

I'm really excited for Nations League. We know there's a 30-point gap separating us from 6th, but I really like the Nations League group we're in.

Thanks to the posters who figured out the math, it looks like if you win against a team with a similar ranking to Cuba, you earn about another 3 points, so you'd think we will add 6 more points to our total in September. 1318 or 1319 would be nice after September's update. Whether that shrinks the 30-point gap or just keeps pace with it, we'll have to wait and see.

Here's what the other countries in the 5-10 range have for September Nations League matches:

Honduras - Doesn't start Nations League until October, so might schedule friendlies
El Salvador - Home to Saint Lucia, away at Dominican Republic
Panama - Home and away with Bermuda
Haiti and Curacao - Home and away with each other

[apbsmith]

2 hours ago, jtpc said:

 

Honduras - Doesn't start Nations League until October, so might schedule friendlies
El Salvador - Home to Saint Lucia, away at Dominican Republic
Panama - Home and away with Bermuda
Haiti and Curacao - Home and away with each other

I follow CONCACAF, but is it bad that my personal calendar is now marked with  the games for all teams #5-9.🙈

[jtpc]

51 minutes ago, apbsmith said:

I follow CONCACAF, but is it bad that my personal calendar is now marked with  the games for all teams #5-9.🙈

Not at all! I'm already looking forward to mid-October. Not only do we have our home match against the US, but the potential is there to gain some significant ground on both Honduras and Panama. Honduras won't be earning any points against Martinique, and hopefully Panama doesn't earn any points in Mexico. Could be a great month all around for CanMNT! 💪 😃

[kacbru]

6 hours ago, Binky said:

So what are the two countries ahead of Canada (that we need to pass) doing that Canada is not doing? Well, the answer is very simple: They play more matches! Their results aren't all that impressive, but their national associations spend money, which the CSA does not!!! In the case of Panama, especially. The Panamanians have traveled all over to world to play matches against quality opposition. That's what qualifying for a World Cup Final does for a country! What does the CSA do? Well I'll tell you! The CSA brags about all the goals Canada scores (all against minnows)! The CSA brags about being undefeated in so many matches (all against minnows). The CSA b_tches about how little money it has to work with! Basically, the CSA does F all! The only matches that the CMNT play are the those they are required to play in international competitions! The CSA is the main reason that Canada finds itself in 8th place of the FIFA/Coca-Cola rankings behind El Salvador and Panama. It is quite obvious that the CSA does not want Canada to succeed on the Road to Qatar!!!

Final! Here are the results for  El Salvador, Panama and Canada over the past year:

El Salvador (13 matches)

08/09/18  Montserrat  1-2   El Salvador

11/09/18  Brazil  5-0  El Salvador

13/10/18  El Salvador  3-0  Barbados

16/11/18  Bermuda  1-0  El Salvador

20/11/18  El Salvador  1-0  Haiti

06/03/19  El Salvador  3-1  Guatemala

23/03/19  El Salvador  2-0  Jamaica

26/03/19  Peru  0-2  El Salvador

02/06/19  El Salvador  1 - 0  Haiti

09/06/19  Japan  2 - 0  El Salvador

17/06/19  Curaçao  0 - 1  El Salvador

21/06/19  El Salvador  0 - 0  Jamaica

25/06/19  Honduras  4 - 0  El Salvador

Panama (14 matches)

11 September 2018  Panama  0–2  Venezuela

12 October 2018  Japan  3–0  Panama

16 October 2018  South Korea  2–2  Panama

16 November 2018  Honduras  1–0  Panama

20 November 2018  Panama  1–2  Ecuador

27 January 2019  United States  3–0  Panama

23 March 2019  Brazil  1–1  Panama

29 May 2019  Panama  0–0  Basque Country

3 June 2019  Colombia  3–0  Panama

7 June 2019  Uruguay  3–0  Panama

18 June 2019  Panama  2–0  Trinidad and Tobago

22 June 2019  Guyana  2–4  Panama

26 June 2019  Panama  0–1  United States

30 June 2019  Jamaica  1–0  Panama

Canada (8 matches)

September 9, 2018	2019–20 CONCACAF Nations League qualifying	Bradenton, United States	U.S. Virgin Islands	8–0	Osorio  6', Cavallini  9', 45', David  32', 37', Hoilett  50', Larin  60', 80'
October 16, 2018	2019–20 CONCACAF Nations League qualifying	Toronto, Canada	Dominica	5–0	David  3', Hoilett  14', Cavallini  18' (pen.), Joseph  47' (o.g.), Larin  82'
November 18, 2018	2019–20 CONCACAF Nations League qualifying	Basseterre, Saint Kitts and Nevis	Saint Kitts and Nevis	1–0	Hutchinson  44'

March 24, 2019	2019–20 CONCACAF Nations League qualifying	Vancouver, Canada	French Guiana	4–1	Hoilett  11', Cavallini  39', 50', David  41'
June 15, 2019	2019 CONCACAF Gold Cup	Pasadena, United States	Martinique	4–0	David  33', 53', Hoilett  63', Arfield  67'
June 19, 2019	2019 CONCACAF Gold Cup	Denver, United States	Mexico	1–3	Cavallini  75'
June 23, 2019	2019 CONCACAF Gold Cup	Charlotte, United States	Cuba	7–0	David  3', 71', 77', Cavallini  21', 43', 45+1', Hoilett  50'
June 29, 2019	2019 CONCACAF Gold Cup	Houston, United States	Haiti	2–3	David  18', Cavallini  28'

Not just the number of games, but significant difference in quality of opponent.

[Binky]

15 minutes ago, kacbru said:

Not just the number of games, but significant difference in quality of opponent.

Sadly, I believe that because Canada has languished in international doldrums for so long now, that we are no longer an attractive opponent for many countries. Every country has a soccer reputation. How do you think other countries view Canada when it come to soccer. Just go down the CONCACAF list above. What do you think Mexicans think of Canadian soccer? Americans? Haitians? Do you think that these countries admire our play? Do they spend much time thinking about Canadian players? Do they fear playing against Canada? I guess you get the picture. Respect is something you earn on the soccer pitch, and one certainly doesn't get that from playing against the likes of opponents we have been playing against.

The solution? We need to start playing friendlies against countries that find themselves in a similar boat. Countries like El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. If we wait and don't play countries like these until World Cup qualifiers, we end up unprepared for the conditions that those matches are contested in. All our young players need to experience hostile environments before World Cup qualifiers, because they d_mn well will have to play 2 or 3 of those matches if we qualify for the HEX, and will almost certainly have to play one if we have to go via the B route.

[Binky]

Why don't we just do away with World Cup qualifiers altogether, and just organize one great big global tournament instead?

There are 211 countries eligible for Qatar 2022. Give the top 45 FIFA/Coca-Cola ranked countries a first round bye, and put the remaining 166 countries in a hat. Draw a 83 pairings and have them play a home and home series, with the 83 winning countries joining the 45 countries that received a bye. Put the 128 countries in the hat again and draw 64 pairings. Keep repeating this process for 32, 16, 8, 4, 2, and 1 pairings, and Shazam, Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a World Champion. Nothing to complain about, and it would take only 16 match days to complete, which could easily be accomplished in a two-year cycle, and that way we could have twice as many World Champions, and not be forced to go to places like Doha to watch the final, that is unless Qatar made it all the way to the final pairing, and everybody knows that will never, ever happen. This way the Final two matches would always be played in the countries that have the world's best players. And so it should be, IMHO!!!

[Soro17]

On 7/25/2019 at 2:06 PM, kacbru said:

Not just the number of games, but significant difference in quality of opponent.

For all their efforts, those extra friendlies don’t appear to have benefited Panama much from a points perspective. I see a whole bunch of losses and two draws. 

[JamboAl]

1 hour ago, Binky said:

Why don't we just do away with World Cup qualifiers altogether, and just organize one great big global tournament instead?

There are 211 countries eligible for Qatar 2022. Give the top 45 FIFA/Coca-Cola ranked countries a first round bye, and put the remaining 166 countries in a hat. Draw a 83 pairings and have them play a home and home series, with the 83 winning countries joining the 45 countries that received a bye. Put the 128 countries in the hat again and draw 64 pairings. Keep repeating this process for 32, 16, 8, 4, 2, and 1 pairings, and Shazam, Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a World Champion. Nothing to complain about, and it would take only 16 match days to complete, which could easily be accomplished in a two-year cycle, and that way we could have twice as many World Champions, and not be forced to go to places like Doha to watch the final, that is unless Qatar made it all the way to the final pairing, and everybody knows that will never, ever happen. This way the Final two matches would always be played in the countries that have the world's best players. And so it should be, IMHO!!!

Won’t happen because:

1) Regional interest from confederations

2) Absurd amounts of Travel

3) Objections from clubs - why do you think the old European Champions Cup went the way of the dodo?

4) One bad result and you are done for four years.

5) $$$$$ (not generating enough)

[SkuseisLoose]

7 hours ago, Binky said:

Why don't we just do away with World Cup qualifiers altogether, and just organize one great big global tournament instead?

There are 211 countries eligible for Qatar 2022. Give the top 45 FIFA/Coca-Cola ranked countries a first round bye, and put the remaining 166 countries in a hat. Draw a 83 pairings and have them play a home and home series, with the 83 winning countries joining the 45 countries that received a bye. Put the 128 countries in the hat again and draw 64 pairings. Keep repeating this process for 32, 16, 8, 4, 2, and 1 pairings, and Shazam, Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a World Champion. Nothing to complain about, and it would take only 16 match days to complete, which could easily be accomplished in a two-year cycle, and that way we could have twice as many World Champions, and not be forced to go to places like Doha to watch the final, that is unless Qatar made it all the way to the final pairing, and everybody knows that will never, ever happen. This way the Final two matches would always be played in the countries that have the world's best players. And so it should be, IMHO!!!

In this hypothetical situation it better be a completely random draw. I want Germany vs England and at the same time have the Bahamas vs San Marino fighting it out in the round of 128. 

[Binky]

1 hour ago, SkuseisLoose said:

In this hypothetical situation it better be a completely random draw. I want Germany vs England and at the same time have the Bahamas vs San Marino fighting it out in the round of 128. 

I agree.

In order to make the hypothetical format totally fair, as in 100%, which is something that FIFA would obviously never consider, the 45 countries receiving a first round bye should also be drawn randomly out of the hat, instead of awarding those 45 byes to countries based on FIFA/Coca-Cola rankings.

In a completely fair format, countries like the Bahamas and San Marino would have the same chance at receiving a first round bye as would Germany and England. And of course in theory, the numbers 1 and 2 in the world would have the same chance of meeting in the first round as the numbers 210 and 211 in the world.

Like why should any governing body be justified in fixing a draw that favours the number 1 and 2 countries meeting in the final? Yes, I understand that that makes the most money. And we all know that presidents of FIFA and continental confederations are the most greedy, backstabbing f_ckers in the world.

However, don't most fans grow tried of watching the United States and Mexico contest the Gold Cup final 6 out of 15 times, and win the trophy outright 14 out of 15 times? CONCACAF should just scrap the entire Gold Cup tournament and proceed straight away to a one final match, played in the United States of course, between the United States and Mexico. Like this has to be the most boring confederation championship EVER!!!