The Road to Qatar.

[apbsmith]

10 hours ago, Lofty said:

I would analyze the two paths as follows.

I assume the chance of winning the first playoff game, Hexagonal 4th vs. Winner 29 = 50% (for either team!). And the average chance of winning the inter continental play off, given we don't know which confederation, is 40%. So the chance of qualifying via play offs is 20%.

1. Making the hexagonal:

Chance of coming in top 3: 5%

Chance of coming 4th: 15%

Chance of coming 5th/6th: 80%

Chance of qualifying after coming 4th = 15% × 20% = 3%.

Total chance of qualifying via hexagonal = 5% + 3% = 8%.

2. Not making the hexagonal:

Chance of qualifying = 30% × 20% = 6%.

So yes, based on those assumptions (which could be way off so please feel free to revise with your own) the hexagonal wins, but not by much.

Thanks for your solid posts. 

Not sure about 50% chance in the .5 playoff though.

In 2014 hex, Mexico had a few bad / unlucky games and ended up spot #4 in hex. They were #1 or #2 in CONCACAF before the hex, and then made the KO stage of the World Cup, so def not the true #4. 

I think we can all agree that we would not be a 50% in a head to head vs Mexico.

What I'm trying to say is the Hex can be a fairly fluky tourney in itself, and it usually does not end up as #1-#6. 

Also, if Fifa continues the same 3 year pattern (our turn to play a south American team in playoff).... I don't see it ending well for any concacaf team that gets the .5 spot

Tbh, in my eyes it is kind of hard, almost impossible to predict the true %... especially when you look at the big picture. We simply don't know what the 4th place hex team is and we don't know the  inter Continental playoff team. 

The non hex, could be El Salvador & New Zealand or it could be Costa Rica/USA & Chile, we simply don't know. 

At least we are guaranteed some games no matter what, but still a chance we get draw in to the group of 3 first round, so 4 games followed by KO rounds.

Me personally, I'd much rather us in the hex and have 10 guarenteed games. I really think as a squad we will get better and better the more we play as a team, especially with this group of players ... Or maybe I'm just overly optimistic though. However, maybe ask me after the CNL if my opinion has changed haha.

 

Edited July 12, 2019 by apbsmith

[Kent]

Quick and dirty calculations (using June ranking points, and not modifying them from one game to the next, and I didn't finish reading through the ranking instructions, I'm sure there are home and away considerations, maybe other things) I think if we run the table in the Nations League group stage, then beat Honduras in the semi's and Mexico in the final we only get about 58 points. If everyone else stays where they are (as of June rankings), that is enough to get us to 5th. So yeah, it's going to be very difficult to get into the top 6, but not entirely impossible.

[Binky]

5 hours ago, SpecialK said:

I hope I’m wrong so someone please  double check my math calendar dates - so since John Herdman was hired in Jan 2018, we have played 10 games 7W - 3 loses. 

Since his time we could have 7 more games in that FIFA official windows ( 10 points per game) and  potentially 2 more during the World Cup prep ( so games not during fifa window = 5 points per game). 

*Plus 2 more games if we made it the gold cup finals.

So doing just basic math here and without adding the  bonus point of a win or a draw or -1 with a loss . Canada could have added 80 points with just playing 9 games ! And it would have taken us from 1314 to 1394. Jamaica is sitting in 4th in CONCACAF with 1397 and   Honduras in fifth with 1368. 

So everyone is losing their mind over the new  qualification system (  ****** system ) , we’ll if The CSA and Herdman knew WTF and WTF supporters ! Why are you not losing yours minds hard on the CSA, for putting us in a horrible spot cuz they’re too cheap and lazy! 

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.sportingnews.com/ca/amp/soccer/news/canada-soccer-john-herdman-canmnt-play-more-games-concacaf-nations-league/1js0e4nh8r5od159rcuzu6a03o

 

Hindsight is 20-20. Ironically, 2020 will also be the final year that John Herman is in charge of the CMNT, and Steve Reid is the president of the CSA, as Herdman was his man for the job, unless Canada qualifies for the HEX. A potentially long and boring 7th place consolation route to a home and home showdown with the 4th place finisher in the HEX should not constitute a get-out-of-jail-free pass after 1) failing at the Gold Cup, and 2) failure to qualify for the Hex, especially after guaranteeing that Canada will qualify for Qatar 2022.

However, until next year, the 25% on this board, who disagree that these two men are still in charge, will have to accept that both have been granted a second chance. We will know soon enough (that is after the Nations League matches in September and October, and hopefully beyond) if Canada will qualify for the HEX. That will be the time when the 40% not yetters cast their final votes. A 65% result, a two-thirds majority, will seal their fate. Until then, I will quit bitching about both of them on this board, and I suggest, my friend, that you may wish to consider a similar stance. Cheers.

[TOcanadafan]

10 hours ago, Lofty said:

Working my way through this thread but I have to comment on this. It is a classic case of garbage in, garbage out.

The method is correct but it is only as good as the chosen percentages, which are clearly wrong.

 

The previous posters who gave our chances of qualification from the non-Hex route factored in these non-equal percentages and all got between 0.5-2% (even lower than the incorrect 2.5%).  The important information from the twitter poster is the following and is how he got that it is now much more difficult to qualify.

 

[maplebanana]

3 hours ago, Kent said:

The bold part above, it's worth repeating, is assuming we win all 7 of those games. Lose half of them and we are at 0 points gained. If we win 6 and lose only 1, we only gain 25 points instead of 35, if I'm not mistaken. Because instead of gaining 5 points, going from 30 to 35, we lose 5 points, going from 30 down to 25.

So yeah, it's definitely not as simple as "More friendlies, more points". It takes wins to move up.

Thanks for the detailed analysis of the system @maplebanana and @Lofty for your link. I'll have to familiarize myself a bit more and play around with hypothetical situations... if/when I get the time.

Yes, your math is correct. My assumption is that the *max* points we could have gotten from 7 friendlies with 7 Canada-equivalents was 35. In actuality, it would be less than 35 because after you beat them the first time, your ranking points go up and theirs go down. So with each successive win you get slightly less and less against the same opponent. So to properly do the math you'd have to do some kind of series summation, and it's been too long since I was in math class.

The most amazing thing is (and to answer your other question), there is no correction for home/away or margin of victory. So if San Marino (#211) went to Belgium (#1) and beat them 5-0 in a friendly, that would net them 10 points. Which would be good enough to move them from #211 to .... #211 but a bit closer to #210. If San Marino beat Belgium, in Belgium, 19 times in a row, it still wouldn't be enough to get them to the top 100!

In @Lofty's link you can see what happens when they did thousands of simulations. No one moves spots. The old FIFA ranking wasn't super accurate but this new one is completely insane.

[Binky]

What will Canada need to do in the following 4 matches to move up in the FIFA/Coca-Cola CONCACAF rankings:

Canada - Cuba  (Sept. 7th)

Cuba - Canada  (Sept. 10th) 

Canada - USA  (Oct. 15th)

USA - Canada  (Nov. 15th)

1) 2 wins against Cuba, 2 losses against the USA?

2) 2 wins against Cuba, 1 tie and 1 loss against the USA?

3) 2 wins against Cuba, 2 ties against the USA?

4) 2 wins against Cuba, 1 win and 1 loss against the USA?

5) 2 wins against Cuba, 1 win and 1 tie against the USA?

6) 2 wins against Cuba, 2 wins against the USA?

[maplebanana]

1 hour ago, Binky said:

What will Canada need to do in the following 4 matches to move up in the FIFA/Coca-Cola CONCACAF rankings:

Canada - Cuba  (Sept. 7th)

Cuba - Canada  (Sept. 10th) 

Canada - USA  (Oct. 15th)

USA - Canada  (Nov. 15th)

1) 2 wins against Cuba, 2 losses against the USA?

2) 2 wins against Cuba, 1 tie and 1 loss against the USA?

3) 2 wins against Cuba, 2 ties against the USA?

4) 2 wins against Cuba, 1 win and 1 loss against the USA?

5) 2 wins against Cuba, 1 win and 1 tie against the USA?

6) 2 wins against Cuba, 2 wins against the USA?

Damn, you made me make a spreadsheet and everything to calculate this. Weighting = 15 for CNL group stage.

USA W/D/L = +10/+2.5/-5

Cuba W/D/L = +3.1/-4.4/-11.9

So for your combinations above:

1) 2 Cuba wins, 2 USA losses = 2*3.1 - 2*5 = -3.8

2) 2 Cuba wins, 1 USA draw, 1 USA loss = 2*3.1 + 2.5 -5 = +3.7

3) 2 Cuba wins, 2 USA draws = 2*3.1 + 2*2.5 = +11.2

4) 2 Cuba wins, 1 USA win, 1 USA loss = 2*3.1 + 10 - 5 = +11.2

5) 2 Cuba wins, 1 USA win, 1 USA draw = 2*3.1 + 10 + 2.5 = 18.7

6) 2 Cuba wins, 2 USA wins = 2*3.1 + 2*10 = 26.2

So if everything goes according to the ranking we'll lose points (scenario 1). If we become suddenly amazing and win all 4 (scenario 6), we'll add only 26 points which puts us still behind El Salvador today, even though they will most certainly add to their points since they have 6 games in CNL against minnows and we have only 4 games. 

Short of some miracle of us winning friendlies against a bunch of good teams *and* us winning the CNL, we are almost mathematically out of the hex already.

[Binky]

45 minutes ago, maplebanana said:

Damn, you made me make a spreadsheet and everything to calculate this. Weighting = 15 for CNL group stage.

USA W/D/L = +10/+2.5/-5

Cuba W/D/L = +3.1/-4.4/-11.9

So for your combinations above:

1) 2 Cuba wins, 2 USA losses = 2*3.1 - 2*5 = -3.8

2) 2 Cuba wins, 1 USA draw, 1 USA loss = 2*3.1 + 2.5 -5 = +3.7

3) 2 Cuba wins, 2 USA draws = 2*3.1 + 2*2.5 = +11.2

4) 2 Cuba wins, 1 USA win, 1 USA loss = 2*3.1 + 10 - 5 = +11.2

5) 2 Cuba wins, 1 USA win, 1 USA draw = 2*3.1 + 10 + 2.5 = 18.7

6) 2 Cuba wins, 2 USA wins = 2*3.1 + 2*10 = 26.2

So if everything goes according to the ranking we'll lose points (scenario 1). If we become suddenly amazing and win all 4 (scenario 6), we'll add only 26 points which puts us still behind El Salvador today, even though they will most certainly add to their points since they have 6 games in CNL against minnows and we have only 4 games. 

Short of some miracle of us winning friendlies against a bunch of good teams *and* us winning the CNL, we are almost mathematically out of the hex already.

Thanks for doing all the calculations above. If the miracle does happen and we somehow do manage to win the group and move on to the Nations League final championship in March 2020, would another victory, or two, make a difference in catching El Salvador?

Edited July 12, 2019 by Binky

[Binky]

With a 1 out of 29 chance of qualifying to meet the the 4th place finisher of the HEX for a 50% shot to make it to Qatar, why do I get the feeling that under Montagliani's new format that we've have already been eliminated from the 2022 World Cup before qualifying has even begun?

Mt. Vic must have taken out dual citizenship. This is way more corrupt than awarding the World Cup Final to Qatar! This is nothing short of an act of blatant treason!

If we somehow do manage to qualify for Qatar, it will definitely not be thanks to Victor Montagliani.

 

Edited July 12, 2019 by Binky

[SpursFlu]

1 out of 29? What are we the playing the lottery?

[Binky]

7 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

1 out of 29? What are we the playing the lottery?

I wonder how our players are reacting to CONCACAF's announcement? Any word from Herdman, if he's pleased with the format? I'd really like to hear if he thinks this new format favours Canada or not? What happens if Mexico, the United States and Costa Rica don't finish 1st, 2nd and 3rd in the HEX?

Edited July 12, 2019 by Binky

[johnyb]

On 7/11/2019 at 2:44 PM, SpursFlu said:

I really like this structure. While the hex is going down, simultaneously there will be a knockout round going down. So guaranteed instead of years past sitting on my couch going oh well, I'm miserable for the next 3 years.. I'll be watching Canada play meaningful games, and hopefully attended in person. I dont get the crying? People have no vision for anything new

This is the only thing I like about this format. More meaningful games right until the end. Still think it's BS though

[apbsmith]

10 minutes ago, Binky said:

What happens if Mexico, the United States and Costa Rica don't finish 1st, 2nd and 3rd in the HEX?

Someone can correct me if I am wrong, but I am fairly certain the last 3 cycles the hex did not end up top 3 going #1-#2-#3.

Aside from Mexico, I think the hex will be very tight between #2-#5 this cycle. I can't see El Salvador finishing above 5th, which makes it an even bigger advantage for the other 5 hex teams being in the hex....if Panama is able to jump El salvador I think it will be very competitive between #2-#6. 

There are two things I wonder here: 

1) If it's announced that miraculously are inter Continental playoff goes against the norm and it is not a South America team, does El Salvador try to drop down to #7? They are not the true 6th best team.

2) I could only imagine what the Panamanian federation and fans are feeling about this format.

[xabuep2]

Here in Panama has caused much controversy this new format. Especially because the Spanish journalist Mister Chip said that the Panamanian federation knew in advance about how the qualifiers would be like. The president of Fepafut Manuel Arias informed that Panama will have a strategy to reach the hex, affirming that the " Canaleros" should win their matches in the CNL and already plan two friendly matches for October 10 and November 19. According to Fepafut El Salvador has the possibility to increase 17 pts and Panama 28 pts.

https://www.tvmax-9.com/somoslasele/Manuel-Arias-conferencia-prensa_0_5348465130.html

https://www.diez.hn/centroamerica/1300935-498/misterchip-y-su-critica-a-panama-vs-estados-unidos-nuevo-formarto-eliminatoria-concacaf

https://impresa.prensa.com/deportes/Panama-mal-parado_0_5346965284.html

Edited July 12, 2019 by xabuep2

[dyslexic nam]

How many points would we have gotten for beating Haiti (or CR if the table had worked out the way people were projecting)?  I am wondering if we were set up to squeak into the hex with solid GC and CNL performances and we screwed ourselves when we shat the bed in the QF’s. 

[Kent]

4 hours ago, maplebanana said:

In @Lofty's link you can see what happens when they did thousands of simulations. No one moves spots. The old FIFA ranking wasn't super accurate but this new one is completely insane.

That link Lofty sent was informative, but to play devils advocate, it was written in June last year before the first rankings with the new system were published. They said one of the problems was the starting point. I don’t know if FIFA did anything about the starting points but we have a years worth of real world results and teams rankings have moved around a lot more than their simulation predicted.

[maplebanana]

1 hour ago, Kent said:

That link Lofty sent was informative, but to play devils advocate, it was written in June last year before the first rankings with the new system were published. They said one of the problems was the starting point. I don’t know if FIFA did anything about the starting points but we have a years worth of real world results and teams rankings have moved around a lot more than their simulation predicted.

I believe the way they did it was start at something like 1600 for the at-the-time-current FIFA ranking for #1, then #2 gets 1596, #3 gets 1592, etc down to #211. That way by switching the ranking methodology, no one in that instant would get shuffled around and only future changes would be added. So you are right that their simulations may not be entirely accurate, but the difficulty in moving spots is still quite evident.

@dyslexic nam if we had beaten Haiti in the GC we would have gotten 16.4 pts which would have put us slightly above Panama and in striking distance of El Salvador, but still out of the Hex and still likely out in the end (because of 6 easy games for ES in CNL).

[Binky]

1 hour ago, Kent said:

That link Lofty sent was informative, but to play devils advocate, it was written in June last year before the first rankings with the new system were published. They said one of the problems was the starting point. I don’t know if FIFA did anything about the starting points but we have a years worth of real world results and teams rankings have moved around a lot more than their simulation predicted.

Is CONCACAF guilty of failing to exercise full-disclosure? Does the timing of the announcement of the new format match the time that effected matches were played? Does failure to do either, leave the door to manipulation and cheating open? Is the new format an improvement over the old format with regard to fairness? Are all CONCACAF nations extended the same equal opportunity to qualify for Qatar 2022?

While 6 countries will be playing in the Premier League of CONCACAF qualifying for 3 World Cup berths, Victor Montagliani has arbitrarily decided to relegate Canada and 28 other CONCACAF nations to the Second Division of CONCACAF qualifying for a possible 1/2 World Cup berth, without telling anyone in advance of what he was up to. Are these not justifiable grounds for pursuing impeachment?

[maplebanana]

2 hours ago, Binky said:

Thanks for doing all the calculations above. If the miracle does happen and we somehow do manage to win the group and move on to the Nations League final championship in March 2020, would another victory, or two, make a difference in catching El Salvador?

Best case, if we win the group via 4 wins, beat CRC in SF and MEX in F, we'd get 26.2 (GS) + 15.8 (CRC SF) + 17.9 (MEX F) = 59.9 pts. That would put us 30 pts ahead of ES. ES has 2 games in hand on us, but they can't get 30 points in those because the teams they're playing are all lower than them. I suppose our most 'likely' way to get in is to make it to the final of CNL, win some decent competitive friendlies in the other 2 windows, and hope that some of the minnows can get results (draws or wins both help) against ES in CNL.

[CanSuffer]

17 hours ago, Lofty said:

For those who may be quite understandably wondering about Canada's chances of getting into the CONCACAF top 6 in the shiny new FIFA World Rankings in time for an automatic place in the hexagonal, this article should satiate your curiosity. 

Spoiler: 0%.

http://www.weglobalfootball.com/2018/06/12/fifas-new-elo-rankings/

Thanks for this very useful link

[CanSuffer]

20 minutes ago, Binky said:

Is CONCACAF guilty of failing to exercise full-disclosure? Does the timing of the announcement of the new format match the time that effected matches were played? Does failure to do either, leave the door to manipulation and cheating open? Is the new format an improvement over the old format with regard to fairness? Are all CONCACAF nations extended the same equal opportunity to qualify for Qatar 2022?

While 6 countries will be playing in the Premier League of CONCACAF qualifying for 3 World Cup berths, Victor Montagliani has arbitrarily decided to relegate Canada and 28 other CONCACAF nations to the Second Division of CONCACAF qualifying for a possible 1/2 World Cup berth, without telling anyone in advance of what he was up to. Are these not justifiable grounds for pursuing impeachment?

This is a step backwards for CONCACAF and FIFA too

[Binky]

19 minutes ago, Lofty said:

Yes, but since the Republicans hold the Senate he would not be convicted anyway.

I'm going to call Nancy Pelosi and see what she has to say about this. Is it time to impeach?

[nolando]

One thing I don't understand, if you are behind the scenes in CONCACAF and even if you're not Canadian, why wouldn't you want a guy like Davies or David involved, front and centre,  in your region's showcase tournaments? Why make it so much more likely that two (or more) of the region's brightest stars wouldn't be shown off to the rest of the world?

This is a ridiculous risk they are taking from a marketing angle, never mind a stupid soccer move. I'm thinking of comparables, and I'm stretching admittedly, but would Europe have gone out of their way to exclude Shevchenko in his prime from European qualifying or Africa the same with George Weah even if their respective countries weren't always in the A List of regional powers?

[Binky]

Does Victor Montagliani's new format now render the Nations League matches irrelevant for Canada? Like what are we playing for?

Edited July 12, 2019 by Binky

[Kent]

1 hour ago, Binky said:

Does Victor Montagliani's new format now render the Nations League matches irrelevant for Canada? Like what are we playing for?

The opposite I would say. If we kill it in Nations League, we might make the hex. I'm organizing a group of 13 to go to the Canada vs USA game and when this announcement was made I started telling the people in the group that the game is even more important than I originally thought.