FIFA rankings - why they are important and how to beat the system

[Trois Reds]

So, outside of South America and Europe:

2 Concacaf countries are now ahead of us (US and Mexico),

3 African countries are (Senegal, Nigeria, Morocco),

and 3 from Asia (South Korea, Japan, and Iran).

 

Nice.  Love the map.

[TGAA_Star]

Latest mock draw I saw on YouTube it had Canada in a group with European Champions Italy, former World Champions Germany and Iran...definite group of Death if I ever saw one

[PegCityCam]

"They can barely stand a nice, polite Canadian environment!" These boys lambasting the American rankings is pretty hilarious. 

 

[Ally McCoist]

4 hours ago, PegCityCam said:

"They can barely stand a nice, polite Canadian environment!" These boys lambasting the American rankings is pretty hilarious. 

 

Nice? Polite? Idk about you but at around the 54th minute the V's section was chanting "Oooohhhh fuck the USAaaaa, fuck the USA, fuck the USA, fuck the USAaaaaa".  

There was also another pretty brutal chant outside the stadium before the bus arrived. But I won't say it because it would probably get me on some sort of list xD.

Edited February 15, 2022 by Ally McCoist

[Sal333]

12 hours ago, PegCityCam said:

"They can barely stand a nice, polite Canadian environment!" These boys lambasting the American rankings is pretty hilarious. 

 

I honestly think they're being a little harsh. There are only two problems with the USA team. They haven'y got decent #9s and GGG is their coach. They fix those two problems and they're a powerhouse. Actually, if they rid themselves of GGG and get a good coach, that may fix their #9 problem. Just like Herdman fixed our back line problem.

[chalms04]

On 2/11/2022 at 4:13 AM, TGAA_Star said:

Latest mock draw I saw on YouTube it had Canada in a group with European Champions Italy, former World Champions Germany and Iran...definite group of Death if I ever saw one

I'm of the opinion that any group with Canada will be the group of death (for our opponents).

[archer21]

46 minutes ago, chalms04 said:

I'm of the opinion that any group with Canada will be the group of death (for our opponents).

Either our group or the group with the CONMEBOL playoff team. A group with Uruguay, Peru, Chile, or Colombia as their Pot 4 team will be a stacked group.

Edited February 15, 2022 by archer21

[CanadaFan123]

1 hour ago, Sal333 said:

I honestly think they're being a little harsh. There are only two problems with the USA team. They haven'y got decent #9s and GGG is their coach. They fix those two problems and they're a powerhouse. Actually, if they rid themselves of GGG and get a good coach, that may fix their #9 problem. Just like Herdman fixed our back line problem.

I don't think GGG is a bad coach. He won two trophies last year and has this USA team at #13 in the world. Let's put it in perspective - the USA lost just one competitive match last year (away to Panama) and beat Mexico 3 times, including with a B squad.

I think their fanbase and the surrounding incessant noise is toxic. 

[Obinna]

1 hour ago, Sal333 said:

I honestly think they're being a little harsh. There are only two problems with the USA team. They haven'y got decent #9s and GGG is their coach. They fix those two problems and they're a powerhouse. Actually, if they rid themselves of GGG and get a good coach, that may fix their #9 problem. Just like Herdman fixed our back line problem.

I haven't watched the video yet, but I am going to push back on your "powerhouse" comment.

Do they have the potential to be a powerhouse? Absolutely.

Would Herdman have gotten the most out of that group? Likely. 

Is Greg standing in their way? Definitely. 

However, where is the criticism of the actual players? Are you just looking at their club affiliations when you suggest they should be a powerhouse?

I understand how sexy this looks: Chelsea-Norwich-Dortmund-Leipzig-Valencia-Juventus-Barcelona-Wolfsburg-Hoffenheim-Fulham-Man City

But there is also this: 3 goals - 4 goals - 2 goals - 1500 min - 1150 min - 1700 min - 1400 min - 1950 min - 1300 min - 2150 min - 270 min

I would argue that only 2 of these players are key for their clubs (Brooks-1950 min & Robinson-2150), with Mckennie at 1700 being borderline. None of the attackers are firing, as we can see. These players need to do more at their clubs, or drop down a level to get things going. Of course though, when they drop down a level their club affiliations won't be as sexy, which in turn will kill the hype I suspect. Probably what they need, to be honest. 

[Obinna]

For comparison:

David has 15 goals and 2500 min played, Davies (despite being injured) has 1600 min played, Borjan has 2200 min, Adekugbe 2250 min, Vitoria 1300, Hutchinson 1100 min, Larin 1800 min (7 goals), Eustaquio (1750)  

[narduch]

29 minutes ago, CanadaFan123 said:

I don't think GGG is a bad coach. He won two trophies last year and has this USA team at #13 in the world. Let's put it in perspective - the USA lost just one competitive match last year (away to Panama) and beat Mexico 3 times, including with a B squad.

I think their fanbase and the surrounding incessant noise is toxic. 

Their fan base is arrogant.

They simply aren't as good as they think they are.

[Sal333]

1 hour ago, Obinna said:

I haven't watched the video yet, but I am going to push back on your "powerhouse" comment.

Do they have the potential to be a powerhouse? Absolutely.

Would Herdman have gotten the most out of that group? Likely. 

Is Greg standing in their way? Definitely. 

However, where is the criticism of the actual players? Are you just looking at their club affiliations when you suggest they should be a powerhouse?

I understand how sexy this looks: Chelsea-Norwich-Dortmund-Leipzig-Valencia-Juventus-Barcelona-Wolfsburg-Hoffenheim-Fulham-Man City

But there is also this: 3 goals - 4 goals - 2 goals - 1500 min - 1150 min - 1700 min - 1400 min - 1950 min - 1300 min - 2150 min - 270 min

I would argue that only 2 of these players are key for their clubs (Brooks-1950 min & Robinson-2150), with Mckennie at 1700 being borderline. None of the attackers are firing, as we can see. These players need to do more at their clubs, or drop down a level to get things going. Of course though, when they drop down a level their club affiliations won't be as sexy, which in turn will kill the hype I suspect. Probably what they need, to be honest. 

To be honest I really don't know where most of the Yanks play their club ball in Europe. I just look at the quantity of quality players they have and that tells me with a better coach they can be a powerhouse. Granted, they don't have players on the same level as Davies and David but the quality they have throughout their roster more than makes up for that lack. I look at that coach and see a big hole in the team.

[Obinna]

9 minutes ago, Sal333 said:

To be honest I really don't know where most of the Yanks play their club ball in Europe. I just look at the quantity of quality players they have and that tells me with a better coach they can be a powerhouse. Granted, they don't have players on the same level as Davies and David but the quality they have throughout their roster more than makes up for that lack. I look at that coach and see a big hole in the team.

Fair enough. I find most people (especially American fans) reference the clubs those players are at, then go on to proclaim they should be a powerhouse, and/or are in the midst of a rising golden generation. It's funny because the golden generation tag was being thrown around well before their nations league and gold cup wins, so it never really resulted from the actual titles they won. I get the sense the fanbase are collectively more proud of where their players play than the concacaf titles they've recently won, but that's just my personal impression of things south of the border. 

All of that said, they do have a lot of very good players. They have a much deeper pool of very good players than we do, but most of them are young. As I have said before in other threads, they are lacking experience and that hurts them.

I totally understand they'll mature as a group and they'll earn that experience together as they progress in age, but this can all go sideways very quickly if they finish 4th and lose the intercontinental playoff. Missing the WC be catastrophic and rob them of the development I am talking about. I don't expect that to happen but it's certainly in the realm of possibility. 

The jury is still out on whether they can be a powerhouse. It's more complicated than just getting a new coach, although that'll help. 

 

[Sal333]

2 hours ago, Obinna said:

Fair enough. I find most people (especially American fans) reference the clubs those players are at, then go on to proclaim they should be a powerhouse, and/or are in the midst of a rising golden generation. It's funny because the golden generation tag was being thrown around well before their nations league and gold cup wins, so it never really resulted from the actual titles they won. I get the sense the fanbase are collectively more proud of where their players play than the concacaf titles they've recently won, but that's just my personal impression of things south of the border. 

All of that said, they do have a lot of very good players. They have a much deeper pool of very good players than we do, but most of them are young. As I have said before in other threads, they are lacking experience and that hurts them.

I totally understand they'll mature as a group and they'll earn that experience together as they progress in age, but this can all go sideways very quickly if they finish 4th and lose the intercontinental playoff. Missing the WC be catastrophic and rob them of the development I am talking about. I don't expect that to happen but it's certainly in the realm of possibility. 

The jury is still out on whether they can be a powerhouse. It's more complicated than just getting a new coach, although that'll help. 

 

We're basically saying the same thing except for the coaching part but look at it this way. Put Herdman in charge of that American team for the last 4 years.

[Obinna]

1 hour ago, Sal333 said:

We're basically saying the same thing except for the coaching part but look at it this way. Put Herdman in charge of that American team for the last 4 years.

They'd probably do a lot better because Herdman is a great man manager, but the other side of the equation is that he has a group that chose to buy in, so who's to say the American players would respond the same?

Now admittedly there's not much evidence the US players wouldn't have bought in, because they've stood behind Greg by all accounts, but I have also heard pundits question their mentality, so there's that.

Do you remember Aaronson's comments following the away draw to the states? He basically said we never wanted to play football and thus they deserved more. Maybe that's inexperience or frustration or both, but the fact he never looked in the mirror and say we are responsible for dropped points is worrying nonetheless. I can't imagine our players saying such things. 

Maybe some of the USA players have bought into their own hype?

McKennie (I believe) made a comment saying we are the giants of the region and we need to prove it, which is fine to believe internally, but to come out and say it without winning anything yourself (this was pre-nations league final iirc) is just riding on the coattails of the past successful generations without proving it first. 

So I think there's possibly a mentality problem, along with a coaching problem, and unfortunately for them Berhalter has an egotistical, idealistic, coaching style, which doesn't help. They will win or lose on their brand of football. 

Edited February 15, 2022 by Obinna

[Free kick]

21 hours ago, PegCityCam said:

"They can barely stand a nice, polite Canadian environment!" These boys lambasting the American rankings is pretty hilarious. 

 

That was not worth posting.  Those guys know nothing about game. They have nothing informative or of any worth. 

[PegCityCam]

1 hour ago, Free kick said:

That was not worth posting.  Those guys know nothing about game. They have nothing informative or of any worth. 

Seeing as it's sparked an entire page of posts I'd have to say it was worth posting...I'll go so far as to say that you posting about it not being worth posting is far less worthy of posting than what I posted. Furthermore, it was definitely worth posting just to have an unworthy post posted about it being posted.

[Sal333]

15 hours ago, PegCityCam said:

Seeing as it's sparked an entire page of posts I'd have to say it was worth posting...I'll go so far as to say that you posting about it not being worth posting is far less worthy of posting than what I posted. Furthermore, it was definitely worth posting just to have an unworthy post posted about it being posted.

You just gave me post traumatic stress disorder

[Metro]

15 hours ago, PegCityCam said:

Seeing as it's sparked an entire page of posts I'd have to say it was worth posting...I'll go so far as to say that you posting about it not being worth posting is far less worthy of posting than what I posted. Furthermore, it was definitely worth posting just to have an unworthy post posted about it being posted.

Talk about going postal.

(I'll show myself out.)

[eramosat]

Ran an interesting simulated draw just now:

Canada into Pot 3 - check, at ~20% chance by my guesstimating

Canada into Qatar's group - check, at ~10% chance

Canada draws no UEFA squads  - check, Uruguay and Ghana completed the group, at ~5% chance (much more likely if the first 2 things happened)

And for a little bit of added something, USA also fails to advance - check, they must have finished 5th in qualifying, as NZ defeated Panama in the intercontinental.  I rate a US fifth as a ~ 0.1% chance.  I don't desire USA to not qualify, but they do have a somewhat reasonable path in the final round to catastrophe...

Anyways...

Edited February 21, 2022 by eramosat
error

[Unnamed Trialist]

On 2/15/2022 at 10:19 PM, Free kick said:

That was not worth posting.  Those guys know nothing about game. They have nothing informative or of any worth. 

I'm not going to watch it. 

Like I could care less about what some Aussie says. 

You have to be weak to need to be fawned over by the Empire, we haven't gotten where we are now by being so needy. 

[Ally McCoist]

5 hours ago, eramosat said:

Ran an interesting simulated draw just now:

Canada into Pot 3 - check, at ~20% chance by my guesstimating

Canada into Qatar's group - check, at ~10% chance

Canada draws no UEFA squads  - check, Uruguay and Ghana completed the group, at ~5% chance (much more likely if the first 2 things happened)

And for a little bit of added something, USA also fails to advance - check, they must have finished 5th in qualifying, as NZ defeated Panama in the intercontinental.  I rate a US fifth as a ~ 0.1% chance.  I don't desire USA to not qualify, but they do have a somewhat reasonable path in the final round to catastrophe...

Anyways...

Away in Mexico, Away in CR, and at home to a motivated Panama.  

I cannot fucking wait for the March int'l break.

[umpiredice]

31 minutes ago, Ally McCoist said:

Away in Mexico, Away in CR, and at home to a motivated Panama.  

I cannot fucking wait for the March int'l break.

It's quite plausible that the US could lose all three of those matches.  Costa Rica and Panama have everything to fight for.

Just for fun I ran a simulation of the final three rounds.  These were my scores:

Costa Rica	1	1	Canada
Panama	2	0	Honduras
Jamaica	1	1	El Salvador
Mexico	2	1	United States
Canada	3	0	Jamaica
Honduras	0	3	Mexico
El Salvador	1	2	Costa Rica
United States	1	2	Panama
Panama	1	1	Canada
Jamaica	3	2	Honduras
Mexico	4	0	El Salvador
Costa Rica	2	0	United States

 

And this is the table they produced:

	P	W	D	L	F	A	+/-	Pts
Canada	14	8	6	0	24	7	17	30
Mexico	14	9	3	2	23	9	14	30
Panama	14	7	3	4	19	15	4	24
Costa Rica	14	6	5	3	13	9	4	23
United States	14	6	3	5	18	13	5	21
Jamaica	14	2	5	7	13	22	-9	11
El Salvador	14	2	4	8	8	20	-12	10
Honduras	14	0	3	11	7	30	-23	3

It could happen, right?

[Ally McCoist]

20 minutes ago, umpiredice said:

It's quite plausible that the US could lose all three of those matches.  Costa Rica and Panama have everything to fight for.

Just for fun I ran a simulation of the final three rounds.  These were my scores:

Costa Rica	1	1	Canada
Panama	2	0	Honduras
Jamaica	1	1	El Salvador
Mexico	2	1	United States
Canada	3	0	Jamaica
Honduras	0	3	Mexico
El Salvador	1	2	Costa Rica
United States	1	2	Panama
Panama	1	1	Canada
Jamaica	3	2	Honduras
Mexico	4	0	El Salvador
Costa Rica	2	0	United States

 

And this is the table they produced:

	P	W	D	L	F	A	+/-	Pts
Canada	14	8	6	0	24	7	17	30
Mexico	14	9	3	2	23	9	14	30
Panama	14	7	3	4	19	15	4	24
Costa Rica	14	6	5	3	13	9	4	23
United States	14	6	3	5	18	13	5	21
Jamaica	14	2	5	7	13	22	-9	11
El Salvador	14	2	4	8	8	20	-12	10
Honduras	14	0	3	11	7	30	-23	3

It could happen, right?

Subscribed.

[narduch]

43 minutes ago, umpiredice said:

It's quite plausible that the US could lose all three of those matches.  Costa Rica and Panama have everything to fight for.

Just for fun I ran a simulation of the final three rounds.  These were my scores:

Costa Rica	1	1	Canada
Panama	2	0	Honduras
Jamaica	1	1	El Salvador
Mexico	2	1	United States
Canada	3	0	Jamaica
Honduras	0	3	Mexico
El Salvador	1	2	Costa Rica
United States	1	2	Panama
Panama	1	1	Canada
Jamaica	3	2	Honduras
Mexico	4	0	El Salvador
Costa Rica	2	0	United States

 

And this is the table they produced:

	P	W	D	L	F	A	+/-	Pts
Canada	14	8	6	0	24	7	17	30
Mexico	14	9	3	2	23	9	14	30
Panama	14	7	3	4	19	15	4	24
Costa Rica	14	6	5	3	13	9	4	23
United States	14	6	3	5	18	13	5	21
Jamaica	14	2	5	7	13	22	-9	11
El Salvador	14	2	4	8	8	20	-12	10
Honduras	14	0	3	11	7	30	-23	3

It could happen, right?

This is amazing. I hope it happens.