FIFA rankings - why they are important and how to beat the system

[archer21]

17 hours ago, maplebanana said:

Egypt wins in penalty kicks, which is a good result for us. They gain only 9.56 pts, which puts them still behind us. So we sit at #33 still in the live rankings.

Now we have to cheer for Senegal in the finals (i'm assuming we can't catch them anyway). 

I think Cameroon winning in penalties would have been better right? Still better than a regulation win though. Even though we’re actually behind Egypt now, if they lose in the final we should be able to pass them with 3 wins, since they’ll only get 2 more qualifiers.

 

Edit: actually not sure if we’d pass them or not. They play Senegal twice which would probably be worth quite a few points. Best case, they split the games but Egypt wins on aggregate.

Edited February 4, 2022 by archer21

[InBorjanWeTrust]

Is there realistically another way FIFA decide to do the draw, like is there a chance we can see them going back to the old way of just selecting team based off their continent?

[Sal333]

9 minutes ago, archer21 said:

It’s because it’s the knockout round of their confederation’s tournament. It would be the same for us in semis of Gold Cup.

I don't know what the Gold Cup semis are worth. It's not on that site.

[TGAA_Star]

Just now, InBorjanWeTrust said:

Is there realistically another way FIFA decide to do the draw, like is there a chance we can see them going back to the old way of just selecting team based off their continent?

I doubt it and I much prefer the draw when it is televised and they make a grand spectacle of it. It just adds to the excitement especially when they take the balls out of the pots and they present it to the presenters on stage and they announce the teams and which groups they will fall into. Even getting excited right now talking about it.

[archer21]

5 minutes ago, Sal333 said:

I don't know what the Gold Cup semis are worth. It's not on that site.

• 05 – friendlies played outside the International Match Calendar windows
• 10 – friendlies played within the International Match Calendar windows
• 15 – Nations League matches (group stage)
• 25 – Nations League matches (play-offs and finals), Confederations' final competitions qualifiers, FIFA World Cup qualifiers
• 35 – Confederations' final competitions matches (before quarter-finals)
• 40 – Confederations' final competitions matches (quarter-finals and later)
• 50 – FIFA World Cup matches (before quarter-finals)
• 60 – FIFA World Cup matches (quarter-finals and later)

So WCQ are worth 25, no matter what confederation, and final confed competitions (AFCON, Gold Cup, Euro, etc) are worth 40

[narduch]

24 minutes ago, InBorjanWeTrust said:

Is there realistically another way FIFA decide to do the draw, like is there a chance we can see them going back to the old way of just selecting team based off their continent?

I've been thinking this too.

I've yet to see any proof FIFA will use the 2018 format again.

We also have no idea what they have planned for the 2 playoff spots

[TGAA_Star]

23 minutes ago, narduch said:

I've been thinking this too.

I've yet to see any proof FIFA will use the 2018 format again.

We also have no idea what they have planned for the 2 playoff spots

If they use the 2018 format for the Draw to determine groups, then I'm all for it because in that case there's no real definitive Group of Death 

[Jedi Ram]

1 hour ago, Sal333 said:

They were awarded 19.56 points. You're forgetting  the Africa Cup of Nations Playoffs are weighted at 40 points. Our CONCACA WC qualification are only weighted at 25 points. That's one of the reasons I think the FIFA rankings are utter bullshit. Egypt is ahead of us now.

https://football-ranking.com/fifa_rankings

 

This is incorrect as that website made a mistake as it should be PSO W, not a straight up win.  This is what I have on my spreadsheet;  

[Sal333]

 Egypt has a previous PSO win against Morocco and it picked up similar points.

Edited February 4, 2022 by Sal333

[Jedi Ram]

And here are the possibilities for 3rd place and Final of AFCON ;

Third Place Playoff has no impact for Canada's rankings.

However, in the Finals if Egypt wins whether in straight up or in penalites, they will pass us in rankings.  So cheer on Senegal !

[Jedi Ram]

7 minutes ago, Sal333 said:

 Egypt has a previous PSO win against Morocco and it picked up similar points.

Egypt won in AET...and that counts as straight win, not PSO in Quarter-Finals. Thus, they gained full points for it.

Egypt won 5-4 PSO against Ivory Coast in Round of 16 and was counted as PSO W and gained 8.299 points.   Also Ivory Coast gained 0.451 points as PSO L.

Edited February 4, 2022 by Jedi Ram

[Sal333]

1 hour ago, Jedi Ram said:

Egypt won in AET...and that counts as straight win, not PSO in Quarter-Finals. Thus, they gained full points for it.

Egypt won 5-4 PSO against Ivory Coast in Round of 16 and was counted as PSO W and gained 8.299 points.   Also Ivory Coast gained 0.451 points as PSO L.

That site has Egypt beating Morocco in PSO on Jan 30 and they got 23.29 points.

[Kyle_The_Hill]

28 minutes ago, Sal333 said:

That site has Egypt beating Morocco in PSO on Jan 30 and they got 23.29 points.

The score column incorrectly makes it seem like a PSO but the point gain is correct for the Morocco game.

@Jedi Ram is right though they did incorrectly calculate the point gain for the Cameroon game. Despite correctly calculating for both the Ivory Coast (PSO) and Morocco (AET). 

[eramosat]

Yeah, POT3 seems like a longer shot, after spending a bit of time looking at possibilities.   So few clear paths for Canada to actually leapfrog teams in rankings, in addition to (a) having to maintain or increase their current points and (b) get favorable POT making ruling from FIFA e.g. any CONMEBOL playoff winner goes directly to POT4!

But it's still entertaining to see what's possible.

 

[Neil R.]

I wonder if Senegal makes Pot 2. That door may not be totally closed yet. If Peru gets the 4th CONMEBOL spot instead of Uruguay, Senegal might be bumped up a spot.

[TGAA_Star]

But this is only if Senegal wins AFCON but if Egypt wins, they leapfrog Canada 

[narduch]

The best result for us is Senegal winning AFCON and Egypt making the World Cup by eliminating Senegal in March.

Egypt is currently ranked 45. Doubt they can leap frog us in that scenario 

Edit: Egypt is right behind us in the live ranking.

Edited February 5, 2022 by narduch

[TOcanadafan]

Remember there is still the final round of CAF qualifying… I guess ideally we’d like Senegal to win AFCON and beat / tie Egypt twice when they meet again in March.  Also want to be cheering for some of the underdogs next month (DR Congo, Ghana, Mali).

[narduch]

....

Edited February 5, 2022 by narduch

[narduch]

37 minutes ago, TOcanadafan said:

Remember there is still the final round of CAF qualifying… I guess ideally we’d like Senegal to win AFCON and beat / tie Egypt twice when they meet again in March.  Also want to be cheering for some of the underdogs next month (DR Congo, Ghana, Mali).

Egypt losing AFCON and making the World Cup but not winning both legs would probably be best.

Edited February 5, 2022 by narduch

[TGAA_Star]

Sadio Mane vs Mo Salah in the playoffs for Africa...one African giant is gonna miss out on Qatar. But Senegal is just a better team than Egypt at the moment and watching African football but also being an African Canadian myself evaluating both teams, Senegal is stacked from top to bottom compared to Egypt

[TOcanadafan]

2 minutes ago, TGAA_Star said:

Sadio Mane vs Mo Salah in the playoffs for Africa...one African giant is gonna miss out on Qatar. But Senegal is just a better team than Egypt at the moment and watching African football but also being an African Canadian myself evaluating both teams, Senegal is stacked from top to bottom compared to Egypt

CAF qualifying is brutal… so many countries bunched near the top 15 or so of similar ability.  Ivory Coast didn’t even make the final round.  One of Algeria or Cameroon also not making it.  

[TGAA_Star]

37 minutes ago, TOcanadafan said:

CAF qualifying is brutal… so many countries bunched near the top 15 or so of similar ability.  Ivory Coast didn’t even make the final round.  One of Algeria or Cameroon also not making it.  

I think Cameroon beats Algeria to qualify 

[Jedi Ram]

Football rankings: World Cup qualification simulations (5 February 2022) (football-rankings.info)

This website has recently released the latest simulations and surprising has Canada in pot 3 with 29.51%.  It helps that we have won all matches in the last window and on a 6 game winning streak.

[Jedi Ram]

21 hours ago, Kyle_The_Hill said:

The score column incorrectly makes it seem like a PSO but the point gain is correct for the Morocco game.

@Jedi Ram is right though they did incorrectly calculate the point gain for the Cameroon game. Despite correctly calculating for both the Ivory Coast (PSO) and Morocco (AET). 

This website has corrected this issue and is now reflected correctly in the rankings.  Now gonna cheer hard on Senegal so that Egypt won't overtake us.