FIFA rankings - why they are important and how to beat the system

[TOcanadafan]

17 minutes ago, Jedi Ram said:

Football rankings: World Cup qualification simulations (5 February 2022) (football-rankings.info)

This website has recently released the latest simulations and surprising has Canada in pot 3 with 29.51%.  It helps that we have won all matches in the last window and on a 6 game winning streak.

I couldn’t figure out if the Pot predictions include simulations of the remaining qualifiers and known friendlies that will adjust FIFA points leading up to the March ranking, or do they just use current relative rankings combined with the probability of qualifying?

[Kyle_The_Hill]

1 hour ago, TOcanadafan said:

I couldn’t figure out if the Pot predictions include simulations of the remaining qualifiers and known friendlies that will adjust FIFA points leading up to the March ranking, or do they just use current relative rankings combined with the probability of qualifying?

 

[narduch]

Cameroon play Burkina Faso in the AFCON 3rd place game today. 

With Cameroon currently 38th in the live rankings a loss for them may benefit us.

Cameroon face off with Algeria in the last WCQ round in March

[Kyle_The_Hill]

1 hour ago, narduch said:

Cameroon play Burkina Faso in the AFCON 3rd place game today. 

With Cameroon currently 38th in the live rankings a loss for them may benefit us.

Cameroon face off with Algeria in the last WCQ round in March

Onana just let in a house league goal

[Cblake]

I believe they are a few teams ranked ahead of Canada that will have matches to play for WCQ that if not knocked out, would benefit Canada in their quest for Pool 3. 

[Kyle_The_Hill]

Cameroon came back from 3-0

 

[Kyle_The_Hill]

Cameroon win in PSO. They stay at 38th rank.

 

[narduch]

6 minutes ago, Kyle_The_Hill said:

Cameroon win in PSO. They stay at 38th rank.

 

Wouldn't it count as a tie in the rankings?

Edit: never mind looks like that is accounted for

Edited February 5, 2022 by narduch

[CanadianSoccerFan]

Another upside if we can crack top 30, makes it even easier for UK work permits.  Players would need to appear in 60% of games instead of 70% to auto-qualify.

 

https://worldfootballindex.com/2020/12/work-permits-premier-league-post-brexit-english-clubs-efl-libertadores/

Edited February 6, 2022 by CanadianSoccerFan

[blueseeka]

It would be great to get in the top 30 but not sure how many new players it would help, even with the lowered 60% of games.

Kamal Miller, Osorio and Johnston. Maybe Crepeau, Kaye.

Edited February 6, 2022 by blueseeka

[narduch]

AFCON final coming up at 2pm ET.

Senegal v Egypt. 

A Senegal win would be better for us.

[TGAA_Star]

Senegal 0-0 Egypt currently

[Ally McCoist]

0-0 after 90 mins. Is that good for us?

[TGAA_Star]

Penalties to decide it

[Ally McCoist]

Senegal wins on penalties.

[Kyle_The_Hill]

Senegal up to 18th, Egypt stay at 34th.

 

 

[Miche]

3 minutes ago, Kyle_The_Hill said:

Senegal up to 18th, Egypt stay at 34th.

 

 

Ooooh. Canada are on 1497 as well. Exciting! If Egypt qualify, they'll get more from their wins over Senegal than we will from ours (though we have three remaining, them two). Hopefully it's merely two draws and aggregate. It'll be tight! But aside from points. What great viewing Senegal / Egypt will be - can they get revenge?!

[TGAA_Star]

🇸🇳 Senegal wins AFCON but they have to face Egypt in the playoffs next month

[eramosat]

On 2/5/2022 at 11:41 AM, TOcanadafan said:

I couldn’t figure out if the Pot predictions include simulations of the remaining qualifiers and known friendlies that will adjust FIFA points leading up to the March ranking, or do they just use current relative rankings combined with the probability of qualifying?

I think the Pot predictions part of this table are completely out of touch with reality, as they should be.  No one table could possibly relate all the combinations.

For example, one of Senegal or Egypt will qualify.  Senegal will be 100% be ahead of Canada...Egypt, maybe.  But both sit behind Canada in the potting ranking.  Also, Ecuador? gets put in Pot3 as well?  And Italy is in Pot 3?  No, this is not a good predictor of the Pots at all.

 

Edit:  Ahh...I see that potting %s are listed in final 3 columns, so the ranking is far from absolute.  Senegal is ahead of Canada for Pot 3...Ecuador has no chnace for Pot 3, and neither does Italy.  My bad.  So yes, the table is trying it's best to gauge odds including...so maybe 30% Canada Pot3 could be ok.

Edited February 6, 2022 by eramosat
my dumb arrogance

[Approve My Account Pls]

8 hours ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

Another upside if we can crack top 30, makes it even easier for UK work permits.  Players would need to appear in 60% of games instead of 70% to auto-qualify.

 

https://worldfootballindex.com/2020/12/work-permits-premier-league-post-brexit-english-clubs-efl-libertadores/

Out of curiousity, what matches make up the appearances for the percentage? I assume friendlies are excluded. What about a match against Martinique for instance? Would that count as it would be a Nations League/Gold Cup match even if not against a FIFA sanctioned national side?

[TGAA_Star]

Plus Nations League gives us a good warm up for Qatar since it is in November but then right after the 2022 World Cup, we have the 2023 Gold Cup. So essentially no rest for the weary. I love it.

[Neil R.]

If the intercontinental playoff teams are in Pot 4, when it comes time to draw Pot 4, I wonder if they allocate them first before drawing the rest of the pot. For the CONMEBOL/AFC matchup, you could allocate them to the first available group that doesn't already have a CONMEBOL or an AFC team in it (there might be a UEFA/UEFA/CAF group, or a UEFA/CONCACAF/UEFA group, UEFA/CONCACAF/CAF, etc.) If you leave it to luck of the draw, CONMEBOL/AFC might not be drawn until Pot G. If Pot G already has a CONMEBOL team in it and Pot H already has an AFC team in it, then you could be in a mess on the geographic restrictions. They could potentially avoid all of that by trying to put the intercontinental matchups in a group where there won't be any conflicts regardless of who wins each playoff, assuming such groups exist by the time Pot 3 is done.

[narduch]

Officially 33rd now.

 

[TGAA_Star]

33rd in the world and if we win our next 3 games and go undefeated, we go into the top 30 by getting to 28th or 29th which then would put us in perfect position for Pot 3 for the televised Draw

[Kent]

On 9/20/2021 at 3:33 PM, Kent said:

Here's a fun little thing. Here is a map of the world, with every country that was ranked ahead of Canada 7 years ago coloured blue. We were ranked 120th.

 

Here is the same map for today, ranked 51st.

 

If you are curious or want to play around, here is the website where I made the maps. This has the countries filled in from the 2nd map.

http://www.amcharts.com/visited_countries/#AT,BE,HR,CZ,DK,FR,DE,GR,HU,IE,IT,NL,NO,PL,PT,RO,RU,RS,SK,ES,SE,CH,TR,UA,GB,CR,MX,US,AR,BR,CL,CO,PY,PE,UY,VE,DZ,EG,MA,NG,SN,TN,IR,JP,QA,KR,AU

Back when I posted the above pictures someone mentioned if we ever pass Russia it would make this map look a lot better. Well, now we have! We have also passed other big countries like Australia, Algeria, and Egypt and others since the last map I posted. Here is the map with the 32 countries ahead of us. Note that this map uses the UK instead of splitting up England, Scotland, etc. So this map actually has MORE filled in countries than should be, since we are ahead of Scotland and Northern Ireland! This minor detail used to not matter at all when I made these maps because all 4 countries in the UK were well ahead of us, but that's where we are at now!