FIFA rankings - why they are important and how to beat the system

[Obinna]

On 11/18/2022 at 10:32 AM, Unnamed Trialist said:

We're now 40th in live ranking as Scotland lost to Turkey yesterday as well.

Sort of irks me we are 4th best in Concacaf, and Costa Rica is holding up in the lower 30s. We've lost points with losses especially to Panama, Costa Rica and Honduras these past months.

• https://football-ranking.com/fifa_rankings

....And for all the good play and the sexy transfers of late (Celtic, Watford, Malmo...), the results on the pitch have been terrible. I hate to be negative here, but we should lay off our own kool aid and get real about the results this past year. We don't need to be negative, but we as a fan base need to be a little more self-critical.

[jonovision]

15 minutes ago, Obinna said:

That is not eaay for a team that hasn't gotten a good result since fighting back to draw Japan in a friendly.

*Beat

[Obinna]

23 minutes ago, jonovision said:

*Beat

I stand corrected, thanks. Guess it felt like a draw to me, that's why I recalled it that way.

It was a great result for us, but such a result was few and far between in 2022. After we qualified we have only beat Japan, Qatar and Curacao, and the latter two are results we should get anyways. In the other 6 games we played after qualification we couldn't raise our level and get a single draw (or a win in the case of Bahrain). That concerns me heading into 2023.

In 5 of those 6 games we were slight to heavy underdogs. And in those 5 games we played very well, yet failed to take something. If we got smoked in all those matches then it is what it is, but we didn't. We could have gotten something from each of those games, but we failed. Then, we talk as if the process is more important than the lack of results, since this is our first world cup and we lack depth in certain areas. I guess the results are what they are and we have a lot of work to do still.

My take away? Nothing has really changed despite qualifying. We knew heading into qualifiers that we are the 3rd best team on paper and the 4th best in the region. That remains true today. Can anyone seriously argue otherwise?

When the Ticos were overmatched they found a way to win. They almost dud the same against Germany. For a while it looked like we discovered the same magic (in qualifying), but we haven't seen it since (unless you include the brief glimspe we got versus Japan). Playing well doesn't mean anything if you don't win, and we are far enough along now with this group that we should be demanding that.

We have the 3rd best team in CONCACF and we need to prove it, not assume it.

Edited December 12, 2022 by Obinna

[Unnamed Trialist]

1 hour ago, Obinna said:

....And for all the good play and the sexy transfers of late (Celtic, Watford, Malmo...), the results on the pitch have been terrible. I hate to be negative here, but we should lay off our own kool aid and get real about the results this past year. We don't need to be negative, but we as a fan base need to be a little more self-critical.

We had an objective, which was get to Qatar, and we were already slipping by the time we got to Costa Rica in the last window. We squeezed it out at home. Then have not gone two games without a loss since. 

We are not even pulling out boring, judicious ties when needed.

I would be happy to keep playing better opposition and working on that juggernaut, but not to the detriment of at least being 4th in Concacaf, which ensures a top seed in Nations League groups, and could help enormously for Gold Cup seeding. As we stand, are we going to be in a group with Mexico or the US next Gold Cup? I mean, I realise they don't want to see us so early, but we really shouldn't be happy to see them either.

[jonovision]

2 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

We had an objective, which was get to Qatar, and we were already slipping by the time we got to Costa Rica in the last window. We squeezed it out at home. Then have not gone two games without a loss since. 

I think that's being a bit too harsh. Canada qualified comfortably, or at least more comfortably than any other team in the group. In the end we could have earned 0 points in the final window and still finished top 3. 

The Costa Rica result was poor but the performance was fine. The Panama loss was expected, with a makeshift squad with nothing to play for, and maybe some of the players still hungover. 

All of the other matches Canada has lost in 2022, bar Honduras away in Nations League, are ones in which they would have been pretty heavy underdogs. The Bahrain friendly was also a poor result, though that was not a group of players that have played or will ever play an important match together. The Japan friendly was a good win that showed resolve, but on the balance of play almost the opposite of the Costa Rica loss.

You might expect to steal a result or two in those underdog scenarios, so there is room for disappointment, but I don't view recent form as catastrophic.

Failing to do the job in Nations League in March against Honduras and Curacao would be approaching catastrophe territory and would put Herdman on thin ice, for me. The World Cup proved that players and coaches should not be getting too comfortable or complacent.

[Unnamed Trialist]

8 minutes ago, jonovision said:

I think that's being a bit too harsh. Canada qualified comfortably, or at least more comfortably than any other team in the group. In the end we could have earned 0 points in the final window and still finished top 3. 

The Costa Rica result was poor but the performance was fine. The Panama loss was expected, with a makeshift squad with nothing to play for, and maybe some of the players still hungover. 

All of the other matches Canada has lost in 2022, bar Honduras away in Nations League, are ones in which they would have been pretty heavy underdogs. The Bahrain friendly was also a poor result, though that was not a group of players that have played or will ever play an important match together. The Japan friendly was a good win that showed resolve, but on the balance of play almost the opposite of the Costa Rica loss.

You might expect to steal a result or two in those underdog scenarios, so there is room for disappointment, but I don't view recent form as catastrophic.

Failing to do the job in Nations League in March against Honduras and Curacao would be approaching catastrophe territory and would put Herdman on thin ice, for me. The World Cup proved that players and coaches should not be getting too comfortable or complacent.

Fair enough, losing against Jamaica would have left us tied for third, on goal difference 2nd overall. 

Mind you, if we'd lost vs. Jamaica we would have gone out a lot harder vs. Panama, so the term I used was wrong. The issue is this: we were already coasting by Panama, and have not been in the same mode since.

We had a similar curve around the Gold Cup win, I think we went 15 games without losing, with the championship win smack in the middle of that run. But a few months later in qualifying for 2002 we lost to T&T at home, then Mexico, then T&T again away. So we had a run that carried us to a Gold Cup win, but it was not sustained into qualifying.

[RS]

29 minutes ago, jonovision said:

I think that's being a bit too harsh. Canada qualified comfortably, or at least more comfortably than any other team in the group. In the end we could have earned 0 points in the final window and still finished top 3. 

The Costa Rica result was poor but the performance was fine. The Panama loss was expected, with a makeshift squad with nothing to play for, and maybe some of the players still hungover. 

Agree with this.

Canada was also not "slipping" by the time they got to Costa Rica. They arrived in Costa Rica on a six-game winning streak (11 games unbeaten).

We shouldn't overstate the results of qualification, but we surely shouldn't understate them either.

[jonovision]

19 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

The issue is this: we were already coasting by Panama, and have not been in the same mode since.

I think this is fair, and some more adversity (ie: a loss) earlier in the qualifying process might have stiffened spines a bit in a way which was probably needed heading to Qatar.

[Obinna]

36 minutes ago, jonovision said:

I think that's being a bit too harsh. Canada qualified comfortably, or at least more comfortably than any other team in the group. In the end we could have earned 0 points in the final window and still finished top 3. 

The Costa Rica result was poor but the performance was fine. The Panama loss was expected, with a makeshift squad with nothing to play for, and maybe some of the players still hungover. 

All of the other matches Canada has lost in 2022, bar Honduras away in Nations League, are ones in which they would have been pretty heavy underdogs. The Bahrain friendly was also a poor result, though that was not a group of players that have played or will ever play an important match together. The Japan friendly was a good win that showed resolve, but on the balance of play almost the opposite of the Costa Rica loss.

You might expect to steal a result or two in those underdog scenarios, so there is room for disappointment, but I don't view recent form as catastrophic.

Failing to do the job in Nations League in March against Honduras and Curacao would be approaching catastrophe territory and would put Herdman on thin ice, for me. The World Cup proved that players and coaches should not be getting too comfortable or complacent.

Agree overall but would dispute the claim we were heavy underdogs in ALL of those games. That is overstating things in my view.

One could say Belgium was the one match in which we were heavy underdogs, since there was nearly a  40-place gap in the rankings, but Belgium were on terrible form. The ranking spread with Uruguay was about 25-places, but they weren't on great form either. Morocco and Japan were ranked less than 20 places ahead of Canada. We weren't heavy underdogs any more than we were against Mexico and USA in qualifying Croatia? Fair enough. Good form and relatively big spread between them and us. The rest are more debatable. Each are debatable, in fact. So to say they were all matches with us being heavy underdogs is a bit much.

 

Edited December 12, 2022 by Obinna

[jonovision]

Just now, Obinna said:

One could say Belgium was the one match in which we were heavy underdogs, since there was nearly a  40-place gap in the rankings, but Belgium were on terrible form. The ranking spread with Uruguay was about 25-places, but they weren't on great form either. Morocco and Japan were ranked less than 20 places ahead of Canada. We weren't anymore od any underdog than we were against Mexico and USA in qualifying - that is to say we were "slight" underdogs. Croatia? Fair enough. Good form and relatively big spread between them and us. The rest are more debatable.

 

Although I don't think the players did or should view themselves as significant underdogs going into those matches, the sportsbooks and the general public felt otherwise.

[Obinna]

1 minute ago, jonovision said:

Although I don't think the players did or should view themselves as significant underdogs going into those matches, the sportsbooks and the general public felt otherwise.

Fair enough. Can't argue with that. And the boys didn't pull any upsets and prove them wrong either.

[InglewoodJack]

Saw an article on Twitter that says we're going to drop to 53rd when the rankings become official in a few days. Will post if I can find it.

[Club Linesman]

We have dropped to 40th on the ELO rankings.  

[Jedi Ram]

On 12/19/2022 at 11:58 AM, InglewoodJack said:

Saw an article on Twitter that says we're going to drop to 53rd when the rankings become official in a few days. Will post if I can find it.

FIFA world rankings - LIVE - Daily updating - December 2022 (football-ranking.com)

This is updated on daily basis...and yeah Argentina still not #1 , but ELO ratings have them #1.

Go figure.

[InglewoodJack]

39 minutes ago, Jedi Ram said:

FIFA world rankings - LIVE - Daily updating - December 2022 (football-ranking.com)

This is updated on daily basis...and yeah Argentina still not #1 , but ELO ratings have them #1.

Go figure.

These rankings are funny. We lose a few games, and suddenly we're below Ireland and Burkina Faso. Hell, we're apparently below Romania, a country that has not made the World Cup since 98, has only won 1 Euro game ever, and that came in 2000, and haven't played in the Olympics in 58 years.

 

Belgium, looking squarely like the third best team in our group that was nearly defeated by the worst team to qualify for the world cup, only dropped to #4. Argentina hasn't been able to unseat Brazil as #1 in the world, despite them winning the World Cup and Brazil being upset. Italy is still somehow 8th overall. Hell, Russia, a country that isn't allowed to even play competitive matches unless it's against like Tajikistan is now like 20 slots ahead of us.

I "get" that there's a reason for all this, but really silly when you think of it.

Edited December 20, 2022 by InglewoodJack

[king1010]

Costa Rica being 21 spots ahead of us is tough. Need to take care of business in nations league. 

[Obinna]

15 minutes ago, king1010 said:

Costa Rica being 21 spots ahead of us is tough. Need to take care of business in nations league. 

They have two NL games in March, just like us. Not saying it's a guaranteed 6 points for us, but that is plausible scenario for Canada, who will be eager to make up for the lack of WC results.

Even if Costa Rica also earn 6 points by beating Panama and Martinique, it will only be the Panama points which count in terms of FIFA ranking.

Obviously, that won't overturn the 21-spot gap, but maybe it would close the gap by a few spots at least. 

Edited December 20, 2022 by Obinna

[Kent]

On 12/20/2022 at 7:57 PM, InglewoodJack said:

These rankings are funny. We lose a few games, and suddenly we're below Ireland and Burkina Faso. Hell, we're apparently below Romania, a country that has not made the World Cup since 98, has only won 1 Euro game ever, and that came in 2000, and haven't played in the Olympics in 58 years.

 

Belgium, looking squarely like the third best team in our group that was nearly defeated by the worst team to qualify for the world cup, only dropped to #4. Argentina hasn't been able to unseat Brazil as #1 in the world, despite them winning the World Cup and Brazil being upset. Italy is still somehow 8th overall. Hell, Russia, a country that isn't allowed to even play competitive matches unless it's against like Tajikistan is now like 20 slots ahead of us.

I "get" that there's a reason for all this, but really silly when you think of it.

It's an impossible task. You mentioned Italy. They are simultaneously the best team in Europe (Euro 2020 Champions) and also not in the top 13 (since 13 European teams qualified for the World Cup and Italy didn't). How do you give an accurate ranking for them, or anybody? We did better in qualifying than Costa Rica, but they did better in the World Cup.

Win your games and the rankings will do whatever it is the rankings do. If we consistently get to the semi finals of Nations League and Gold Cups, we will be a top 4 team in CONCACAF. If we consistently make it to finals of those competitions and make it to the round of 16 or beyond in the World Cup, we will be a top 20 team in the world.

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

The new FIFA rankings:

https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men

The new CONCACAF rankings:

https://www.concacaf.com/rankings/men-s-national-team/

 

It is important to stay ahead of Panama because we want to be a seeded team in the Gold Cup draw (if we qualify directly without the playoffs)

Edited December 22, 2022 by Olympique_de_Marseille

[narduch]

 

 

[Obinna]

55 minutes ago, narduch said:

 

 

I was checking out the fifa live rankings this morning. CR will notably be 39th when things are updated, so we've made up a lot of ground on them. Now that we're in the NL finals, we have a real opportunity to leapfrog them, since the Ticos will be playing friendlies and we'll be playing competitive matches. 

[Kent]

2 hours ago, Obinna said:

I was checking out the fifa live rankings this morning. CR will notably be 39th when things are updated, so we've made up a lot of ground on them. Now that we're in the NL finals, we have a real opportunity to leapfrog them, since the Ticos will be playing friendlies and we'll be playing competitive matches. 

And not just competitive matches. The importance factor for a Nations League group stage game is 15, playoffs for Nations League is 25. I can't remember for sure, but likely we can't even lose points if we lose the game (I know that is the case for the Gold Cup knockout rounds, not as sure about Nations League).

[narduch]

[Tyson M]

meh, I've always preferred the ELO rankings that has us in the at 38(which I think is more realistically where we are today). 

[eramosat]

On 3/29/2023 at 10:05 PM, Kent said:

And not just competitive matches. The importance factor for a Nations League group stage game is 15, playoffs for Nations League is 25. I can't remember for sure, but likely we can't even lose points if we lose the game (I know that is the case for the Gold Cup knockout rounds, not as sure about Nations League).

You are correct...you cannot earn negative points in a knock-out round in a competition.  The relevant FIFA details from their formula for the FIFA Rankings, bold and italics my edits, to draw attention to the use of the word competition to describe Nation's League.  And which is also used for Confederation and World Cup.

------------------------

I: importance of match

   ...

    I= 15 Group phase matches of Nations League competitions

    I= 25 Play-off and final matches of Nations League competitions 

   ...

Additional conditions:

Knock-out rounds of final competitions: Teams that earn negative points in the knock-out round of a final competition (e.g. as a result of losing, or even winning after PSO against a weaker team) do not lose any points:

------------------------

Nice to know Canada cannot go backwards in a game.  Finally!  The best in the World get this huge benefit all the time!!

P.S.  Just did a rough check of Canada's changes in ranking, with, say, a win in the NL final?  Vs either Mexico or USA, in isolation, it could get Canada to #41-42, still just behind Costa Rica.  Moral of the story?  If you goto a World Cup final competition, you better show some results in the Group Stages, or everything you did before suffers greatly...in this thread, at least.

Edited April 8, 2023 by eramosat