FIFA rankings - why they are important and how to beat the system

[Kent]

I thought it was interesting that the ranking points for 3 draws was exactly the same as the ranking points for losing to Belgium, drawing Croatia, and beating Morocco. And it got me wondering if all the combinations of WDL with 3 opponents would be the same. I just checked, and sure enough, it doesn't matter who we beat, lose to, or draw. If we get 4 points in the group stage it is worth 26.51 points (not exactly true, because the points won and lost from one game factors into the next game). Maybe this was already obvious to math majors or something, but it wasn't something I intuitively knew before going the brute force route.

[Unnamed Trialist]

We're now 40th in live ranking as Scotland lost to Turkey yesterday as well.

Sort of irks me we are 4th best in Concacaf, and Costa Rica is holding up in the lower 30s. We've lost points with losses especially to Panama, Costa Rica and Honduras these past months.

• https://football-ranking.com/fifa_rankings

Edited November 18, 2022 by Unnamed Trialist

[InglewoodJack]

48 minutes ago, Kent said:

I thought it was interesting that the ranking points for 3 draws was exactly the same as the ranking points for losing to Belgium, drawing Croatia, and beating Morocco. And it got me wondering if all the combinations of WDL with 3 opponents would be the same. I just checked, and sure enough, it doesn't matter who we beat, lose to, or draw. If we get 4 points in the group stage it is worth 26.51 points (not exactly true, because the points won and lost from one game factors into the next game). Maybe this was already obvious to math majors or something, but it wasn't something I intuitively knew before going the brute force route.

This scenario would bring us all the way up to #31, provided every other team stays the same, but I assume teams ranked in the top 15 will get a lot more points and the next 15-20 would lose points, so this scenario would likely take our fifa rankings into the high 20s.

[Kent]

23 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

I think we'll get just 3 points for the win, we'd still be behind Scotland.

But what do I know?

Correction to my earlier response to this. I thought it was about 5.8 points for the Japan win, but the website has it at just 2.91, so assuming they are right, it looks like you were right. I thought it was an "in window" friendly, so a 10 multiplier for importance, rather than an "outside window" friendly, which is just a 5 multiplier. Bring on the 50 multiplier for World Cup group stage games!

[Jedi Ram]

In the current FIFA's Men’s International Match Calendar 2020-2024, there is no official November 2022 window designated.

In this calendar only November 14 is named as the release date of players for the World Cup. It's not the same as a complete match window. For instance there's no end date mentioned of the window.

Also, FIFA excludes any match with more than 6 substitutions from the ranking calculation. At least, that was their policy for the last decade.  So some of the friendlies may not be counted.  I highly doubted that the football-ranking.com went through each friendly to verify this.

Another requirement for a match to be included was a FIFA-approved referee and that the match should follow the IFAB Laws of the Game (so at least consists of 2x45 minutes and much more). But we have seen already a few examples where those requirements were not met but the match was included anyway.

So what we see in football-rankings are rough estimate and the current numbers we can use for the World Cup calculation.

Edited November 19, 2022 by Jedi Ram
Corrected information from highly respected source.

[Kent]

So far operation "Get FIFA points from other confederations during the World Cup and bring them back to CONCACAF" has not gone well. All 4 games involving CONCACAF teams ended up in CONCACAF dropping points. USA and Mexico were higher ranked than their opponents and they drew. Costa Rica and Canada were lower ranked, but lost.

[eramosat]

it would take a super-human effort from CONCACAF to overcome the advantages UEFA and CONMEBOL have over them...the average placing and grouping of their best teams is significantly higher than CONCACAF's, with zero sign of improving.

So it seems it is every team for itself.  Canada will do best by simply winning on it's own...any advantage conferred by it's federation advancing looks to be miniscule in comparison.

 

[Kadenge]

21 minutes ago, eramosat said:

it would take a super-human effort from CONCACAF to overcome the advantages UEFA and CONMEBOL have over them...the average placing and grouping of their best teams is significantly higher than CONCACAF's, with zero sign of improving.

So it seems it is every team for itself.  Canada will do best by simply winning on it's own...any advantage conferred by it's federation advancing looks to be miniscule in comparison.

 

Concacaf doesn't help itself by allowing non-FIFA teams into the GC.

[Free kick]

With Canada as co-host in 2026, and hence getting a top seed.  The fifa ranking should have no signuficance for Canada until WCQ for 2030 starts. It wont matter what we are ranked for a long while. 

[Unnamed Trialist]

1 hour ago, Free kick said:

With Canada as co-host in 2026, and hence getting a top seed.  The fifa ranking should have no signuficance for Canada until WCQ for 2030 starts. It wont matter what we are ranked for a long while. 

FIFA rankings matter for our Gold Cup group placement, and for Nations League. 

If the stated goal is to win a trophy, another GC or Nations League, which would also be the best way to improve our FIFA ranking, we need to keep the ranking up high. As is, we are 4th in Concacaf, we would be top ranked in a group and avoid a higher ranked side. Unless they fiddled and put Qatar, invited in 2023, as a top seed.

[Fresh Prince of MTL]

21 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

FIFA rankings matter for our Gold Cup group placement, and for Nations League. 

If the stated goal is to win a trophy, another GC or Nations League, which would also be the best way to improve our FIFA ranking, we need to keep the ranking up high. As is, we are 4th in Concacaf, we would be top ranked in a group and avoid a higher ranked side. Unless they fiddled and put Qatar, invited in 2023, as a top seed.

Doesn’t CONCACAF have their own rankings for seeding of their tourneys? Otherwise not sure how they would account for the Martinique’s of the world

[Jedi Ram]

6 hours ago, Kadenge said:

Concacaf doesn't help itself by allowing non-FIFA teams into the GC.

Exactly... 

[Jedi Ram]

4 hours ago, Fresh Prince of MTL said:

Doesn’t CONCACAF have their own rankings for seeding of their tourneys? Otherwise not sure how they would account for the Martinique’s of the world

Yes they do, which itself complicates the rankings further... We need only FIFA members otherwise what's the point of letting them play in our region... 

[Neil R.]

Here's an update on the CONCACAF rankings as of today. I'm guessing the result against Morocco isn't included in this and will be part of the January 1st update. I couldn't remember how close 4th and 5th were before the World Cup, so I'm glad that despite the 3 recent losses, we're still in a good position for Pot 1 seeding at the Gold Cup.

[Kent]

Great point. Our games against Curacao and Honduras in Nations League are big not just for Nations League, but for the Gold Cup as well.

[Unnamed Trialist]

Just found out they offer Elo rankings for chess as well, interesting. 

Been reading and following the controversy between Hans Niemann and Carlsen/chess.com, which is very interesting. The interviews with Niemann are fascinating, recommended. He's playing a tournament this week in Barcelona.

Edited December 5, 2022 by Unnamed Trialist

[Unnamed Trialist]

2 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Just found out they offer Elo rankings for chess as well, interesting. 

Been reading and following the controversy between Hans Niemann and Carlsen/chess.com, which is very interesting. The interviews with Niemann are fascinating, recommended. He's playing a tournament this week in Barcelona.

I was wrong, I thought Elo were an alternative ranking in chess.

Quite the contrary, I now learn (as I continue to follow this controversy) that FIDE, the International Chess Federation, uses Elo for its rankings.

The rankings are important as they determine who is a Grandmaster, and at what point level; which in turn, like in other singles competitions like tennis or gold, can determine who can get into a tournament or not.

One of the accusations against Carlsen is that he was trying to be the first player to be over 2900 ranking, and that his notorious loss to Neimann in St Louis was a step back for him.

[maplebanana]

9 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

I was wrong, I thought Elo were an alternative ranking in chess.

Quite the contrary, I now learn (as I continue to follow this controversy) that FIDE, the International Chess Federation, uses Elo for its rankings.

I think Elo ratings were actually invented specifically (at first) for chess. Then ported over to soccer, football, etc.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system

[Unnamed Trialist]

6 minutes ago, maplebanana said:

I think Elo ratings were actually invented specifically (at first) for chess. Then ported over to soccer, football, etc.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system

I've always huffed at people's claims that Elo were a superior ranking system, because basically, it makes no difference. But now you are saying they are used and were invented to consolidate a very important ranking system, in chess, I respect them more. 

The problem in the chess system is that Carlsen through his companies, and chess.com, control who gets to play many tournaments, as they are the sponsors. So what you would require is for FIDE to extend invitations based on rankings, and not let sponsors conduct boycotts on the instance of their majority partners. The more important tournaments you can't play, the less you can rise in the rankings, then have less chance to play and develop--which is the basis of Niemann's lawsuit against them.

Edited December 5, 2022 by Unnamed Trialist

[InglewoodJack]

FIFA rankings are still every bit as important now than ever. I don't know if that will factor in to seeding for 2026, however, look at how our WC played out vs. how the US' did. We're as good as they are, or at least in the same tier, but they're what, 15th overall? We're 42. Why? Because they've been winning all these rinky dinky home games for the past few decades which has kept their ranking high, and next thing we know, they are in a group with Wales and Iran. Look at Mexico. Not a very good team. Fewer top 5 league players than us. Ranked 13th overall. Why? They can beat the brakes off of whatever concacaf team they face at azteca.

We had a solid chance to moving up to pot 3 for 2022, we lost matches we should've won, then got smoked out of Qatar. Imagine if we would've moved into pot 3? That means no Morocco, and instead we replace them with Saudi Arabia or Wales or someone else that we could've beaten easier.

I think the bigger picture goal here is to make Canada a sustainably top 20 nation by 2030. In order to do that, we need to win our matches at home against Honduras and Costa Rica. We need to go toe to toe in Copa America as much as we can. Ranking well so we can get a good spot for Gold Cup helps this goal too.

I mean, we just played Belgium who is absolutely not the 2nd best nation in the world. They weren't even the second best nation in their World Cup group! Yet, they win their non-world cup matches, they move up to Pot A, and get more favourable seeding for major tournaments. It didn't work for them this year, but they were semi finalists in 2018. This stuff matters.

[Neil R.]

I wonder what the highest-ever FIFA ranking is for an African country? Morocco must be heading into that kind of territory. They were already in a great position (22nd) heading into the World Cup. All 5 of their matches so far have been points-earning and they'll net some serious points for 3 wins against countries in the top 10 (Belgium, Spain, Portugal). I'm looking forward to seeing their new ranking after the tournament.

[Atlantic]

50 minutes ago, Neil R. said:

I wonder what the highest-ever FIFA ranking is for an African country? Morocco must be heading into that kind of territory. They were already in a great position (22nd) heading into the World Cup. All 5 of their matches so far have been points-earning and they'll net some serious points for 3 wins against countries in the top 10 (Belgium, Spain, Portugal). I'm looking forward to seeing their new ranking after the tournament.

Nigeria were 5th in 1994 

[Jedi Ram]

Morocco are currently 11th...and with SF win can be 8th.  Even if they win the World Cup, they won't be able to surpass 5th ranking.  Go figure.

The major flaw in the FIFA rankings is that countries do not lose points in the knockout of confederation and World Cup tournament.  That is why top teams remains on the top...  Another reason why I tend to rely on Elo ratings more.

[baulderdash77]

While ELO may be a better predictor rating, FIFA is all that matters from a seeding perspective.

The fact is that we have to really consistently win a lot of games for a long time to make sure we can be a pot 2 or 3 team.  

Getting in pot 4 turned out to be a disaster for us.  No more pot 4 BS for us anymore. Our sites have to be set higher.  We need to get into the top 25 FIFA ranking and stay there for us to progress going forward.  

[Obinna]

More importantly than where Morocco is, Canada has slid all the way down to 53rd. Historically that is still pretty good, but boy oh boy what a missed opportunity this was for us.

We can frame it as a learning opportunity or whatever, but it's a failure not to get a single point. Getting something from any of those teams would have prevented such a big slide 12 places down the rankings, and it was well within our reach as we were competitive in all 3 games. Even against Bahrain and Uruguay in the friendlies, we should have gotten more from those. Honduras away in NL was 3 points dropped.

We can make excuses and say the rankings don't matter, and that's partly true, but we also need to acknowledge that since we have qualified we have been a disaster in terms of results. We need to turn a page and turn those dropped points into wins, starting in March.

Remember, we have 2 games to play and need at least a point from Honduras at home, not to mention a win on the road against Curacao. That is not eaay for a team that hasn't gotten a good result since fighting back to draw Japan in a friendly.

If we don't make good in March we kiss our chance at a NL trophy goodbye.