Cavallini or Larin?

[Corazon]

8 hours ago, Hawkguy said:

I really hate when people post bullshit. It's fine if you think Larin is the better option for Canada or the better striker. You're allowed to have that opinion. 

But to make bullshit up is just ridiculous and makes you look bad. 

Over their past 14 caps each, the time frame I referred too... Larin has scored 8 goals in 659 minutes compared to Cavallini at 16 goals in 787 minutes. In what world is that almost identical?

To put it commonly used numbers; over that time frame Larin is scoring 1.09 goals per 90 while Cavallini is scoring 1.83 goals per 90 (while scoring against better teams). Again... how is that even close?

If you wanted to "predict" via those numbers - if Larin and Cavallini played every minute in their next 14 games; Larin would score 15 goals to Cavallini's 26. 

Hey man, no need to get defensive, I love Cavallini and would love for him and Larin to split a game each in the qualifiers.

Not a bullshit calculation but I should not have referred to your calculation as you were going by caps and I missed that.  I went ahead and calculated off the time period during Herdman's era; starting in September 2018 against the US Virgin Islands to present.  It looks like you are going back to 2016 for Cyle Larin's statistics.  You calculated over a period of games and I calculated over a period of time in which Larin, has played less than 500 minutes.

Edited June 11, 2021 by Corazon

[TGAA_Star]

9 minutes ago, Corazon said:

Hey man, no need to get defensive, I love Cavallini and would love for him and Larin to split a game each in the qualifiers.

Not a bullshit calculation but I should not have referred to your calculation as you were going by caps and I missed that.  I went ahead and calculated off the time period during Herdman's era; starting in September 2018 against the US Virgin Islands to present.  It looks like you are going back to 2016 for Cyle Larin's statistics.  You calculated over a period of games and I calculated over a period of time in which Larin, has played less than 500 minutes.

Or why not have Larin play up top for the first leg and then 2nd leg you go with Cavallini up top

[Shway]

The stats show that basically we as fans are good with either guy, and like someone said earlier we shouldn’t be surprised if both get to start each game. 

[Hawkguy]

28 minutes ago, Corazon said:

Hey man, no need to get defensive, I love Cavallini and would love for him and Larin to split a game each in the qualifiers.

Not a bullshit calculation but I should not have referred to your calculation as you were going by caps and I missed that.  I went ahead and calculated off the time period during Herdman's era; starting in September 2018 against the US Virgin Islands to present.  It looks like you are going back to 2016 for Cyle Larin's statistics.  You calculated over a period of games and I calculated over a period of time in which Larin, has played less than 500 minutes.

My apologies. I was in a pissy mood last night and I think it came through on a few of my posts. You're a good contributor here and that wasn't fair. 

I just used their last 14 games. However, I did not go back to 16 for Cyle Larin. His 14th last game was played in September 2017. Cavallini's 14th last game was played in September 2018. 

If if we go back and include all of their 2017 games; you still have Larin coming in 8 in 715 minutes compared to Cavallini's 16 in 1005 minutes. That put's Larin at 1.00 goals per 90 while Cavallini would still sit at 1.43 goals per 90. That's still a significant difference without looking at game quality difference and other factors - like assists (which Cavallini also has a lead of 2-1). 

Even using the Herdman era, which would be January 2018 forward, Larin sits at 1.28 goals per 90 compared to Cavallini's 1.83 goals per 90. Even if we take out Larin's first game with Herdman as it was a friendly, you're still left with 1.47 goals per 90 compared to 1.83 goals per 90 for Cavallini. 

Just to make things clear - I don't think Larin is a bad player. I don't even think he's an average player. He's extremely good. I just think Cav has done better for Canada recently and think in an important game, he's the guy I want on the pitch.

Edited June 11, 2021 by Hawkguy

[Hawkguy]

23 minutes ago, TGAA_Star said:

Or why not have Larin play up top for the first leg and then 2nd leg you go with Cavallini up top

I think it'll probably go the other way with Cav playing in Haiti and Larin playing back home.

Edited June 11, 2021 by Hawkguy

[prairiecanuck]

14 minutes ago, Hawkguy said:

I think it'll probably go the other way with Cav playing in Haiti and Larin playing back home.

I tend to agree.  Cav is a physical player.  I think we need that in game one away against Haiti.  It's going to be hot.  I see Cav going out and setting a tone playing hard and being an early sub in the 60th minute with Larin coming on fresh and I would start Larin back in Chicago.  Both are quality players.  Just having a conversation like this is a luxury.

[yomurphy1]

2 minutes ago, prairiecanuck said:

I tend to agree.  Cav is a physical player.  I think we need that in game one away against Haiti.  It's going to be hot.  I see Cav going out and setting a tone playing hard and being an early sub in the 60th minute with Larin coming on fresh and I would start Larin back in Chicago.  Both are quality players.  Just having a conversation like this is a luxury.

Yeah. I don't see this being an either or especially when Jonathan David is in the team and needs to be accommodated.  You start Larin and its either  its not working or the centre backs are tired and you bring in Cav to beat the remaining crap out of them. Alternatively you start Cav to beat the crap out of the centre backs and then bring in a fresh Larin to run at them. 

[CanadaFan123]

It will be interesting to see how much of a home field advantage Haiti actually has. Most of their players aren't actually from Haiti (France, USA, Canada, Denmark) so they don't have that lifetime experience of playing in the country and have just played a handful of games there for the national team. The field is artificial turf so no surprises there. 

Their home advantage would largely come down to fans being in the stands but that's not the case here. 

 

[Corazon]

1 hour ago, Hawkguy said:

My apologies. I was in a pissy mood last night and I think it came through on a few of my posts. You're a good contributor here and that wasn't fair. 

I just used their last 14 games. However, I did not go back to 16 for Cyle Larin. His 14th last game was played in September 2017. Cavallini's 14th last game was played in September 2018. 

If if we go back and include all of their 2017 games; you still have Larin coming in 8 in 715 minutes compared to Cavallini's 16 in 1005 minutes. That put's Larin at 1.00 goals per 90 while Cavallini would still sit at 1.43 goals per 90. That's still a significant difference without looking at game quality difference and other factors - like assists (which Cavallini also has a lead of 2-1). 

Even using the Herdman era, which would be January 2018 forward, Larin sits at 1.28 goals per 90 compared to Cavallini's 1.83 goals per 90. Even if we take out Larin's first game with Herdman as it was a friendly, you're still left with 1.47 goals per 90 compared to 1.83 goals per 90 for Cavallini. 

Just to make things clear - I don't think Larin is a bad player. I don't even think he's an average player. He's extremely good. I just think Cav has done better for Canada recently and think in an important game, he's the guy I want on the pitch.

Completely respect your opinions and your statistics as well.  I had Cav at around 1.59.  Not sure where our differences are but he still ahead of Larin as you point out.  Again, lots of factors to take into account.  And the original point of my response wasn't to make an argument as to why Larin should start over Cavallini but just that production levels are much closer than you were making it seem.  That's all.

[Corazon]

1 hour ago, Hawkguy said:

I think it'll probably go the other way with Cav playing in Haiti and Larin playing back home.

I was going to say the same thing.  

[trc2014]

2 hours ago, CanadaFan123 said:

It will be interesting to see how much of a home field advantage Haiti actually has. Most of their players aren't actually from Haiti (France, USA, Canada, Denmark) so they don't have that lifetime experience of playing in the country and have just played a handful of games there for the national team. The field is artificial turf so no surprises there. 

Their home advantage would largely come down to fans being in the stands but that's not the case here. 

 

They have tons of experience with this pitch - with 8+ straight days on the field in this cycle alone.  Canada will have had one training session at best before the game tomorrow.

[Obinna]

1 minute ago, trc2014 said:

They have tons of experience with this pitch - with 8+ straight days on the field in this cycle alone.  Canada will have had one training session at best before the game tomorrow.

As long as the pitch is flat and the ball is round I am not worried. I expect us to return to Chicago with a resullt.

[trc2014]

41 minutes ago, Obinna said:

As long as the pitch is flat and the ball is round I am not worried. I expect us to return to Chicago with a resullt.

Can Canada atleast get one definitive result outside of North America before people are so confident?  2019 1-0 result against Cuba away is a not so distant memory.  

[Obinna]

10 minutes ago, trc2014 said:

Can Canada atleast get one definitive result outside of North America before people are so confident?  2019 1-0 result against Cuba away is a not so distant memory.  

We'll see. The Cuba game was disappointing, but we were a disjointed bunch on that day.

The player selection was not good (David out wid) and we fielded several back up players (I think WJ started). I recall we had trouble creating chances that game, plus we played with 10 men for most of it.

Things can go wrong, obviously, but hard not to be confident after such a dominant game against an upstart Suriname side. I think it is likely we get out of there with a couple of away goals.  

[BearcatSA]

12 minutes ago, trc2014 said:

Can Canada atleast get one definitive result outside of North America before people are so confident?  2019 1-0 result against Cuba away is a not so distant memory.  

I am very confident that we are going to grind out a result:  draw or one goal win.

[dyslexic nam]

29 minutes ago, trc2014 said:

Can Canada atleast get one definitive result outside of North America before people are so confident?  2019 1-0 result against Cuba away is a not so distant memory.  

This paraphrase Oldsmobile, this isn’t your father’s CMNT.  We will increasingly put lesser teams to the sword without the stumbles of the past.  We will get results in hostile Caribbean and Central American environments. Haiti will see what happened to Suriname and should be scared as hell.  

[MtlMario]

On 6/11/2021 at 12:46 PM, trc2014 said:

Can Canada atleast get one definitive result outside of North America before people are so confident?  2019 1-0 result against Cuba away is a not so distant memory.  

What are you trying to do? After all my hard work trying to convince people to be positive and not worry here you are trying to bring them back. "Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in."😉

[DavemTFC]

Is it too late to change my vote? No reason

[LeoH037]

I don't want to hear any bitching about Larin from here till Tuesday. 

Edited June 12, 2021 by LeoH037

[frmr]

Larin scores an all important goal in a an important match away from home in Concacaf. Is everybody happy now?

[Unnamed Trialist]

8 minutes ago, frmr said:

Larin scores an all important goal in a an important match away from home in Concacaf. Is everybody happy now?

I'm pretty sure part of the ball caught his bum on the way in.

[Hawkguy]

On 6/12/2021 at 7:41 PM, frmr said:

Larin scores an all important goal in a an important match away from home in Concacaf. Is everybody happy now?

Would have been happier if he scored the second.

This thread was never about him being bad. Anyone who took it that way is silly. 

[LeoH037]

hopeless

[trc2014]

17 hours ago, Hawkguy said:

Would have been happier if he scored the second.

This thread was never about him being bad. Anyone who took it that way is silly. 

Exactly - I rate him but game 1 hasn’t changed my vote that Cav should start game 2.  No chance that Herdman does it though given the flack he would be given if Canada loses given Larin’s game 1 goal.

[LeoH037]

LARIN SLANDER WILL NOT BE TOLERATED