WCQ: Third Round - Window 3 (November 12-16, 2021)

[scullion44]

Any videos of the players with the drums post match?

[Free kick]

23 minutes ago, jonovision said:

I know a lot of people are nervous about Panama lurking, and with good reason. But the good thing about being in first place (!) is that there are two other teams that can drop points and help us. USA and Mexico have looked far from invincible, and there's no reason to think they flip a switch and run the table from here on out.

And, say, on the next match day we get 3 points and Panama none. That's a 5 point gap to make up in 5 games, with us likely holding the tiebreaker. Not so easily done, despite any schedule advantages. The opposite could happen but we have to remember that none of the top 4, least of all Panama, are world beaters.

also, with last night's results,  there are now teams that have pretty much fallen out of it or are close.   one of them is Honduras.  and we have our away game against them to start the next cycle.   the timing is great for that game.  By the time we play ES away in the 3rd game,  they too might have fallen off

Edited November 17, 2021 by Free kick

[Kadenge]

I don't like American arrogance but given the number of Canadians playing for and being developed by US based MLS teams, its really in our interest that the US qualifies for Qatar (along with us naturally). With MLS expansion and our performance in WCQ, there is going to be more opportunities for young Canadians. There is a mutual interest here.

[boris4c]

15 minutes ago, scullion44 said:

Any videos of the players with the drums post match?

 

[Bison44]

3 minutes ago, Kadenge said:

I don't like American arrogance but given the number of Canadians playing for and being developed by US based MLS teams, its really in our interest that the US qualifies for Qatar (along with us naturally). With MLS expansion and our performance in WCQ, there is going to be more opportunities for young Canadians. There is a mutual interest here.

What difference does it make? USA didnt qualify last time and we still have our kids (buchanon/Johnston/Miller) going through US colleges and into MLS.  I dont think that will change if the USMNT shits the bed.  Canada qualifying might open up other pathways and put more eyes on our young kids, and less of them might be forced into the NCAA/MLS route.  

[mrstepp817]

I want four CONCACAF teams in the World Cup and I want it to be the 4 best with a shot to make noise...its better for the region and better for the individual teams.....and its pretty clear who the four best teams are at this point 

[Free kick]

28 minutes ago, mrstepp817 said:

I want four CONCACAF teams in the World Cup and I want it to be the 4 best with a shot to make noise...its better for the region and better for the individual teams.....and its pretty clear who the four best teams are at this point 

Yes.  when i have watched the WC i have always rooted for the Concacaf teams and that's because they dont get the  respect they deserve.   Look at the Asian Confederation for example,  they get more WC slots than concacaf but if you go back and look at results in past WC's you will be hard pressed to find head to head matches involving Concacaf and Asia where the Asian side prevailed.  whereas, with concacaf, they have more than held their own versus the European middle powers and occasionally prevail (eg.: Mex) against the larger Europe nations.  But to hear the voices and chatter from old continent, you would think that they believe that we play a game that is grade school level.   

even today,  go to the big eurpean outlets and see what you find on Concacaf WCQ.  There is absolutely nothing,   but you will find plenty on SA and even Africa.   

Edited November 17, 2021 by Free kick

[footballfreak]

2 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

John Herdman got a card yesterday. At the same time as one of Tata's assistants. From what the fourth official seemed to be saying, they were jawing at each other and he called the ref over to card them. 

Yeah I wasn’t sure whether I should include Herdman/Tata on the list. Can managers get a suspension for yellow card accumulation?

 

15 minutes ago, Bison44 said:

What difference does it make? USA didnt qualify last time and we still have our kids (buchanon/Johnston/Miller) going through US colleges and into MLS.  I dont think that will change if the USMNT shits the bed.  Canada qualifying might open up other pathways and put more eyes on our young kids, and less of them might be forced into the NCAA/MLS route.  

Allocation of World Cup slots to the confederations is based, at least in part, on performance. The better CONCACAF does as a whole at World Cups, the easier it is to justify more slots/protect the slots we already have. Other confederations are already grumbling about us getting 6 in 2026. As much as it might be satisfying to see the US or Mexico falter, it is better for CONCACAF to have them there.

“My brother and I against my cousin ; my cousin and I against strangers.”

———

Unrelated, but I don’t want to make a separate post just for this stupid thing I made.

[sstackho]

11 hours ago, rkomar said:

I'm surprised that Panama's odds are so low, despite being tied with Mexico for third.  What is bringing their percentage so far down?

Their Elo rating.  Since Panama's is significantly lower than the Top 3 teams, the model expects their future results to be less favourable than the others.  Their Elo has been increasing with each win, but there is still a large gap.

[Bison44]

5 minutes ago, footballfreak said:

Allocation of World Cup slots to the confederations is based, at least in part, on performance. The better CONCACAF does as a whole at World Cups, the easier it is to justify more slots/protect the slots we already have. Other confederations are already grumbling about us getting 6 in 2026. As much as it might be satisfying to see the US or Mexico falter, it is better for CONCACAF to have them there.

“My brother and I against my cousin ; my cousin and I against strangers.”

MLS and chances for CDN kids was mentioned in the original post.  MLS didnt seem to be to affected by USMNT not qualifying (the league stands on its own now).  The 100's of NCAA college programs just keep chuggin along with dozens and dozens of CDN kids whether the USA makes the WC or not.  Obviously I would like CONCACAF to do well and to have the more spots, but I dont care if its Panama or Jamaica that play the best and goto the WC, and have USA sit again.  

[mrstepp817]

2 hours ago, Bison44 said:

MLS and chances for CDN kids was mentioned in the original post.  MLS didnt seem to be to affected by USMNT not qualifying (the league stands on its own now).  The 100's of NCAA college programs just keep chuggin along with dozens and dozens of CDN kids whether the USA makes the WC or not.  Obviously I would like CONCACAF to do well and to have the more spots, but I dont care if its Panama or Jamaica that play the best and goto the WC, and have USA sit again.  

I think the reality is Panama, Jamaica, Costa Rica etc have much worse odds of putting on a good performance in Qatar at this stage than any of the big three nations in CONCACAF...Canada and the US with the youth in both squads will be even better in late 2022 and have a chance to make some noise and Mexico simply because of pedigree and depth is always going to be a factor even though they are a bit of a mess right now...maybe I need to quit underestimating Panama but I just have this feeling they are going to hit a wall...

[boris4c]

Panama certainly did not have a pleasant time in Russia at the 2018 WC with 3 losses in as many games (-9 goal differential). 

Belgium 3-0 Panama
England 6-1 Panama
Tunisia 2-1 Panama

[footballfreak]

24 minutes ago, mrstepp817 said:

I think the reality is Panama, Jamaica, Costa Rica etc have much worse odds of putting on a good performance in Qatar at this stage than any of the big three nations in CONCACAF...Canada and the US with the youth in both squads will be even better in late 2022 and have a chance to make some noise and Mexico simply because of pedigree and depth is always going to be a factor even though they are a bit of a mess right now...maybe I need to quit underestimating Panama but I just have this feeling they are going to hit a wall...

Re: Panama. Tempted to agree they will fall off, but they’ve gotten some very impressive results.

Next window for them definitely has some tricky games:

@ Costa Rica

vs Jamaica

@ Mexico

Panama is such a wildcard I would not be surprised by anything from 1-7 points. If we can stretch the lead over them to 3 points by the end of those games, then we would be well positioned. 

If we want to daydream though. A Canada sweep in Jan/Feb and a 1 point window from Panama would mathematically clinch us. 

[jonovision]

Looking at those matches for Panama, 4 points looks the likeliest outcome to me. We need to match or beat at this point. Doable.

[Unnamed Trialist]

6 hours ago, Kadenge said:

I don't like American arrogance but given the number of Canadians playing for and being developed by US based MLS teams, its really in our interest that the US qualifies for Qatar (along with us naturally). With MLS expansion and our performance in WCQ, there is going to be more opportunities for young Canadians. There is a mutual interest here.

It is never in the interest of any country that another country qualifies for or wins anything. Okay, except when they get a result that benefits you in a league like this, but only in pure self-interest (they beat Panama, I'll take that win, the same as I'd have taken Jamaica beating the States). If the States, Panama and Mexico lose all remaining games, I'll take it.

I don't get this sort of argument. Have the US stopped developing players in MLS because they were not in the last WC? You are basically arguing the opportunites for Canadians dried up since Russia because the US did not qualify. Which is simply untrue. If we had reciprocity in terms of MLS status, which we do not because the CSA has refused to demand it, the problem would be solved. What is outrageous is that the US has imposed a rule whereby any American can play carte blanche on a Canadian MLS team and no Canadian has that privilege on a US MLS team.

Edited November 17, 2021 by Unnamed Trialist

[Kadenge]

1 hour ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

It is never in the interest of any country that another country qualifies for or wins anything. Okay, except when they get a result that benefits you in a league like this, but only in pure self-interest (they beat Panama, I'll take that win, the same as I'd have taken Jamaica beating the States). If the States, Panama and Mexico lose all remaining games, I'll take it.

I don't get this sort of argument. Have the US stopped developing players in MLS because they were not in the last WC? You are basically arguing the opportunites for Canadians dried up since Russia because the US did not qualify. Which is simply untrue. If we had reciprocity in terms of MLS status, which we do not because the CSA has refused to demand it, the problem would be solved. What is outrageous is that the US has imposed a rule whereby any American can play carte blanche on a Canadian MLS team and no Canadian has that privilege on a US MLS team.

Good points. Perhaps MLS in the US is established sufficiently that if their national team don't go to the WC in 2022 ( twice in a row) it wouldn't adversely impact the sport.  MLS is still far behind NFL, NBA and MLB though and I'm sure they want to narrow the gap. More publicity and casual fans watching and backing their team at the WC has to increase the popularity of the sport and give it more exposure....fans, sponsorship, investors, new teams etc. It sucks that Americans are considered domestics in Canada but given that we are now top 3 in the region, it's clear that Cdn players are on par (we have known that for a while) so perhaps the CSA does start to flex their power. There's also the home grown rule that allows Cdn players to be domestics in the US...and players who have been  in the US for several years are domestics. I just don't see the advantage of Panama/CR/ etc over the US in the WC in terms of benefit to Cdn players.

[Bdog]

9 hours ago, footballfreak said:

Unrelated, but I don’t want to make a separate post just for this stupid thing I made.

We should hold a big cheeseburger picnic for Panama before all of their games. I heard the Panamanians can eat over 15 cheeseburgers in one sitting.

[sstackho]

22 hours ago, sstackho said:

Their Elo rating.  Since Panama's is significantly lower than the Top 3 teams, the model expects their future results to be less favourable than the others.  Their Elo has been increasing with each win, but there is still a large gap.

Out of curiousity, I ran a simulation where I bumped up Panama's current Elo to match Canada's.  In that scenario, Canada has a 79% chance of Top 3 compared to Panama's 49%. 

That is likely due to Panama still needing to play USA and Mexico away, while we have seemingly favourable matches against the two lowest rated teams.  The model does give an Elo boost to the home team, but does not consider the fact that Honduras and ES can be exceptionally hard places to play. 

Edited November 18, 2021 by sstackho

[theaub]

Yeah the ELO absolutely loves us in Central America which is...questionable.  Here are the "match odds" for each remaining match (they don't predict ties, just chances of winning)

• Honduras 25-75 Canada
• Canada 54-46 USA
• El Salvador 25-75 Canada
• Costa Rica 40-60 Canada
• Canada 85-15 Jamaica
• Panama 42-58 Canada

I'd be interested to see what it looks like if we bump our ELO down to Panama's for the away matches.  

[Yoginess]

On 11/17/2021 at 6:43 AM, Unnamed Trialist said:

But we still want to control and dominate the stadium atmosphere. While you may be right, and we won't even get a supporter contingent in a separate section, they'd be dispered, since they are dumb af and just mix in. My perspective is I don't want them in any significant numbers. If only we could get the Canada Soccer and Voyageur sales so far along, maybe with doing deals with other locals before general sales, that we'd half solve it that way.

The US fans also have the arrogance to think we are somehow allied, and that we all want each other to qualify. That we are buddies in the end. I guess it comes from the whole MLS things, where, fair enough, the MLS Extratime guys are generous to Canada and do a decent job. I am glad they do, but that is not my view. I want Canada to qualify and watch the US on the outside, like we have been for decades. We are not their kid brother and I am sick of how we behave like we are, so docile

If we qualify top three with Panama and Costa Rica, that'd be my best case scenario (yes, and best scenario is that Panama and Canada play to a tame draw last day to both make the final 3!). 

 

I'm somewhat disagree. I absolutely love to watch the US crash and burn, it's very entertaining but ultimately I want them at the World Cup. Maybe this will change when Canada is actually in a world cup but I end up cheering for top teams in our region (US, Mexico, CR.. never Panama or Honduras though haha). Puts our region on the map. Mexico getting that result vs Germany was huge. 

What I would LOVE to happen, is just as the US is finally at a stage where they are edging ahead of Mexico we pull ahead of them. That would be bring me such joy (sort of like how Davies completely overshadowed mirror boys rise to fame) 

[Kent]

Canada doesn't need the USA to qualify for the World Cup. I was once cheering for them, for the good of MLS, and then as a trickle down effect, good for Canada. But I'm over it. I kind of cheer for the CONCACAF teams generally in the World Cup, so the region gets more respect, but I don't think it will result in more spots for the region. I did some number crunching way back in 2014 after that edition of the World Cup and found that CONCACAF does better than CAF, AFC, and OFC, but we don't get rewarded with more spots. I wrote this article about it for anyone curious.

https://www.wakingthered.com/2014/6/28/5853508/world-cup-evaluating-the-also-rans

MLS is healthy enough that I'm no longer worried about it's survival. Now I am concerned with the survival of the CPL, and the USA has nothing to do with that league. MLS is nice to have around but if we can get the CPL healthy enough that it stabilizes, grows, and can start selling on players that do well in better leagues, then we greatly reduce our reliance on the USA. Besides, in the event that MLS becomes massive, on a scale like the NBA, NFL, MLB, and NHL, that might end up reducing opportunities for Canadians. If we rely on that league, we are at the mercy of that league. They might reduce the domestic player quotas in favour of highly paid established players. That kind of thing is why the CPL is so important. If it succeeds, we can shape it to fit our needs, rather than the needs of Don Garber or the billionaires that own MLS franchises.

[Kent]

Haha, I was just reading the comments on that article of mine from my previous post. Here is a comment from me about if CONCACAF had 4.5 spots instead of 3.5 spots in the World Cup.

"Yeah, we haven’t made it into the top 6 in so long. If a spot was added, they potentially could change the format so that the hex is expanded, and thus we might have a better chance of making it to the final round. That would be exciting if it happened."

Well, they expanded the hex this time around, and we did make it, and I would argue so far it has met the bar of "exciting"!

[Approve My Account Pls]

I think we need to change our mentality in looking at the other games from "Draws and US/Mexico Wins are Best" to becoming the biggest fan of Honduras, ES, Jamaica, and CR against everyone that isn't us.

Let Jamaica and CR make it a battle to qualify 4th, if they can steal points from Mexico and Panama next window and we handle our business, that would be huge for us. We need some space at the top of the group now.

[jonovision]

^ Agreed. The bottom 4 are far enough back that we don't need to be worried about them catching us. Even if Panama improbably keeps it up, it's not inconceivable that we drop fewer points than USA or Mexico over the final 6 matches.

[MtlMario]

I think Panama will be lucky to get 2 pts next window.