WCQ: Third Round - Window 3 (November 12-16, 2021)

[sstackho]

32 minutes ago, rydermike said:

So with the Costa Rca, Panama, Canada wins and US tie. Our odds went up 8.2% (10.9 - 0.5 - 2.8 + 0.6)

Approximately.  Here is how the model looks now.  

 

Edited November 17, 2021 by sstackho

[jonovision]

I can see two things happening with Mexico. They continue to stumble and fall out of the top 3.

Or they fire Tata, get their ass in gear and resume ass kicking.

Both are good for Canada.

[Floortom]

1 minute ago, jonovision said:

I can see two things happening with Mexico. They continue to stumble and fall out of the top 3.

Or they fire Tata, get their ass in gear and resume ass kicking.

Both are good for Canada.

i dont believe they will fall out of top 3 - they have by far the easiest remaining schedule of any team in top 5. Really, they just played their toughest two matches of the Octagonal consecutively which is why things look so bad. 

[jonovision]

2 minutes ago, Floortom said:

i dont believe they will fall out of top 3 - they have by far the easiest remaining schedule of any team in top 5. Really, they just played their toughest two matches of the Octagonal consecutively which is why things look so bad. 

I don't really think they fall out. (And the biggest reason their remaining schedule is so easy is they don't have to play us again!)

[rkomar]

13 minutes ago, sstackho said:

Approximately.  Here is how the model looks now.  

 

I'm surprised that Panama's odds are so low, despite being tied with Mexico for third.  What is bringing their percentage so far down?

[footballfreak]

I’ll post the full card update in the Window 3/4 thread, but the icing on the cake from that game is that Chucky Lozano is suspended against Jamaica due to yellow card accumulation.

Edit: I am apparently in the Window 3 thread, so here’s the card update. 😂 o

Zack Steffen also has a yellow but I didn’t want to take another screenshot.

Edited November 17, 2021 by footballfreak

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

1 minute ago, footballfreak said:

I’ll post the full card update in the Window 3/4 thread, but the icing on the cake from that game is that Chucky Lozano is suspended against Jamaica due to yellow card accumulation.

He probably doesn't care too much as it gives him more time to fly in from Europe. He'll simply play in Mexico's 2 home matches after that.

[maplebanana]

1 hour ago, rkomar said:

I'm surprised that Panama's odds are so low, despite being tied with Mexico for third.  What is bringing their percentage so far down?

The simulation inputs for determining probability of victory is based on Elo rating, and Panama still has to play @MEX, @USA, vs CAN. So that's probably why. I think this model underestimates Panama a bit. 

[TOCanada115]

25 minutes ago, maplebanana said:

The simulation inputs for determining probability of victory is based on Elo rating, and Panama still has to play @MEX, @USA, vs CAN. So that's probably why. I think this model underestimates Panama a bit. 

If they lose away to Mexico and the US, the max amount of points they can get is 26. I don’t think they win out the rest. 24 points for us clinches a spot, with 23 points and a good GD SHOULD clinch us 3rd. 
 

Anything below that starts getting a bitch sketchy. 

[scullion44]

One of the best parts of these two wins for me is we did it without Davies needing to pull off some magic.

Edited November 17, 2021 by scullion44

[Unnamed Trialist]

Did anyone watch the US at Jamaica? I only saw the 2nd half but it was not very smooth, the pitch was rough and was not, frankly, playing better than Commonwealth. Jamaica are sloppy but try to get something from little. The US was not overly sharp. It was like watching a mid-table Championship match, more push and pace and only a bit of quality. 

Jamaica are not really that good, and if they do not call in their bigger guns for the qualifier away to us, we really should be able to handle them. In fact: for the final 6 games I prefer to see the best possible conditions, and for the team to play to its strengths and try to win every match by outplaying the rival. I think we need to go for an attractive football, practical but as beautiful as we can make it. Even home to the US, we need optimal conditions as this is not the match to look for some sneaky advantage. If BMO pitch is in conditions, I'm fine with it. As I would be with Hamilton, excepting that Hamilton is that much close to a US fan base.

Edited November 17, 2021 by Unnamed Trialist

[mrstepp817]

Jamaica is playing better soccer at the moment...they probably deserved six points from this window...US was their last realistic stand..I'll be very interested to see how they, Honduras and El Salvador handle these final two windows considering they are longshots for 4th at best....Costa Rica hosting Panama to open the next window is a massive fixture

[narduch]

43 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Did anyone watch the US at Jamaica? I only saw the 2nd half but it was not very smooth, the pitch was rough and was not, frankly, playing better than Commonwealth. Jamaica are sloppy but try to get something from little. The US was not overly sharp. It was like watching a mid-table Championship match, more push and pace and only a bit of quality. 

Jamaica are not really that good, and if they do not call in their bigger guns for the qualifier away to us, we really should be able to handle them. In fact: for the final 6 games I prefer to see the best possible conditions, and for the team to play to its strengths and try to win every match by outplaying the rival. I think we need to go for an attractive football, practical but as beautiful as we can make it. Even home to the US, we need optimal conditions as this is not the match to look for some sneaky advantage. If BMO pitch is in conditions, I'm fine with it. As I would be with Hamilton, excepting that Hamilton is that much close to a US fan base.

BMO Field definitely has under soil heating and they do have heat lamps.

The Argos have a home game on December 5, which complicates matters a little as it means less time to prep.

Everybody is worried about playing Jamaica in Toronto but I'm actually more worried about how strong the American support will be. American fans travel well and will be bouyed by their recent win v Mexico. Toronto is a major destination hub.

There is supposed to be a big border announcement today. That will probably mean more ease of travel too.

[mrstepp817]

54 minutes ago, narduch said:

BMO Field definitely has under soil heating and they do have heat lamps.

The Argos have a home game on December 5, which complicates matters a little as it means less time to prep.

Everybody is worried about playing Jamaica in Toronto but I'm actually more worried about how strong the American support will be. American fans travel well and will be bouyed by their recent win v Mexico. Toronto is a major destination hub.

There is supposed to be a big border announcement today. That will probably mean more ease of travel too.

If the game is in Toronto I have several friends from Texas who want to come up and stay with me in Cambridge and go to the game....I imagine there will be a decent contingent that comes up from Buffalo/Detroit area as well...but on the flip side demand for tickets in Canada is going to skyrocket...be really interested to see where the Jan home games end up

[kungfucious]

8 hours ago, jonovision said:

Or they fire Tata, get their ass in gear and resume ass kicking.

im too lazy to look it up, and im still too drunk to believe what i saw last nite, but if that happens, is that the second time the boys will have caused somebody to be fired?

[mrstepp817]

I think firing Tata would be a rash decision but the press and fanbase in Mexico is different...big picture Mexico is fine on qualifying they are through the two toughest games in the Octo...3 losses to the US in a year is hard for that country to swallow though....

[Unnamed Trialist]

8 hours ago, footballfreak said:

I’ll post the full card update in the Window 3/4 thread, but the icing on the cake from that game is that Chucky Lozano is suspended against Jamaica due to yellow card accumulation.

Edit: I am apparently in the Window 3 thread, so here’s the card update. 😂 o

Zack Steffen also has a yellow but I didn’t want to take another screenshot.

John Herdman got a card yesterday. At the same time as one of Tata's assistants. From what the fourth official seemed to be saying, they were jawing at each other and he called the ref over to card them. 

[Free kick]

for all the talk about the US fans coming up.   its worth noting that they have not been factor  (in terms of numbers nor ambiance) in games played in Canada during the nations league (which i attended)  nor that friendly several years back for which i also attended but dont much more about the details.    but i was at both of those games. 

Granted,  that nations league game was on weekday evening, so that matters because it harder to get away and drive up.  Ii seem to recall that that freindly i talked about was on weekend and again,  there were americans at both games but they werent a factor   

 

 

Edited November 17, 2021 by Free kick

[Free kick]

51 minutes ago, mrstepp817 said:

....I imagine there will be a decent contingent that comes up from Buffalo/Detroit area as well...but on 

i suspect that Buffalo and Detroit residents wont be a factor for this reason:   They dont have MLS teams and hence dont have organized groups that can come up as groups.   Thats what changes the atmosphere and makes a difference.  lets say you have 2-5K americans who all buy tickets on their own and drive up individually in groups of 2-3 in cars, when you are at the stadium, you wont even notice them

Central american countries, on the other hand,  do have some loosely organized community groups capable of some form of organizing.   

Edited November 17, 2021 by Free kick

[Pottsy3]

3 minutes ago, Free kick said:

for all the talk about the US fans coming up.   its worth noting that they have not been factor  (in terms of numbers nor ambiance) in games played in Canada during the nations league (which i attended)  nor that friendly several years back for which i also attended but dont much more about the details.    but i was at both of those games. 

Granted,  that nations league game was on weekday evening, so that matters because it harder to get away and drive up.  Ii seem to recall that that freindly i talked about was on weekend and again,  there were americans at both games but they werent a factor   

I remember a pretty strong contingent of American Outlaws (including a pre-game march to the stadium) for that Nations League game. The big difference if I recall, was that they mostly all actually bought tickets in the designated "away support section" (104 at BMO I think), so you couldn't hear/see the away support as prevalently throughout the stadium. I'd expect similar this time around, although I don't think they'll nearly be as noticeable as the Salvadorans.

[Unnamed Trialist]

1 minute ago, Free kick said:

for all the talk about the US fans coming up.   its worth noting that they have not been factor  (in terms of numbers nor ambiance) in games played in Canada during the nations league (which i attended)  nor that friendly several years back for which i also attended but dont much more about the details.    but i was at both of those games. 

Granted,  that nations league game was on weekday evening, so that matters because it harder to get away and drive up.  Ii seem to recall that that freindly i talked about was on weekend and again,  there were americans at both games but they werent a factor   

But we still want to control and dominate the stadium atmosphere. While you may be right, and we won't even get a supporter contingent in a separate section, they'd be dispered, since they are dumb af and just mix in. My perspective is I don't want them in any significant numbers. If only we could get the Canada Soccer and Voyageur sales so far along, maybe with doing deals with other locals before general sales, that we'd half solve it that way.

The US fans also have the arrogance to think we are somehow allied, and that we all want each other to qualify. That we are buddies in the end. I guess it comes from the whole MLS things, where, fair enough, the MLS Extratime guys are generous to Canada and do a decent job. I am glad they do, but that is not my view. I want Canada to qualify and watch the US on the outside, like we have been for decades. We are not their kid brother and I am sick of how we behave like we are, so docile

If we qualify top three with Panama and Costa Rica, that'd be my best case scenario (yes, and best scenario is that Panama and Canada play to a tame draw last day to both make the final 3!). 

 

[Wayverider]

First off, huge kudos go out to the city of Edmonton for their ability to host both games this window. Edmonton is not nearly the size of Toronto or Vancouver and yet they had no problem putting 100,000 butts on frozen seats, clearly demonstrating the area’s passion for Canadian sports. Did we expect anything less from the city of champions? Furthermore it’s refreshing to know we can always revisit these sub-Arctic conditions in the future as a northern Concacaf advantage tailor made for the boys in red!

i made the trip to Edmonton for the first Costa Rica game. I believe those of us who made the journey from afar were in the several thousands. If you didn’t get the opportunity to participate I highly suggest you consider in the future - it was a festive atmosphere and non-stop party (five days later I’m still drying out)! Hopefully this (Edmonton) window serves as a catalyst whereby more and more Canadian supporters travel to home and away games. It really feels like the momentum for supporting this team is not only growing fast (duh!) but it is powering up at a behemoth-leviathan rate! How fast this has all happened! 

Before we, and I, get too far ahead of ourselves let’s not forget we still have an extremely difficult road ahead, and particularly in the next window (2 Central American away destinations where we have historically struggled, and a very talented US team at home). In one single game we could conceivably be in 4th place. Don’t get me wrong, I’ve never been so resoundingly confident in the national team as the present (duh #2), but let’s not count our chickens and let’s keep our eye on the prize (says the guy whose now asking friends, “Can we get fireball body shots in Qatar”?). 

Let’s relish this time my friends - it’s been soooooo long coming! 

[jonovision]

I know a lot of people are nervous about Panama lurking, and with good reason. But the good thing about being in first place (!) is that there are two other teams that can drop points and help us. USA and Mexico have looked far from invincible, and there's no reason to think they flip a switch and run the table from here on out.

And, say, on the next match day we get 3 points and Panama none. That's a 5 point gap to make up in 5 games, with us likely holding the tiebreaker. Not so easily done, despite any schedule advantages. The opposite could happen but we have to remember that none of the top 4, least of all Panama, are world beaters.

[narduch]

1 hour ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

But we still want to control and dominate the stadium atmosphere. While you may be right, and we won't even get a supporter contingent in a separate section, they'd be dispered, since they are dumb af and just mix in. My perspective is I don't want them in any significant numbers. If only we could get the Canada Soccer and Voyageur sales so far along, maybe with doing deals with other locals before general sales, that we'd half solve it that way.

The US fans also have the arrogance to think we are somehow allied, and that we all want each other to qualify. That we are buddies in the end. I guess it comes from the whole MLS things, where, fair enough, the MLS Extratime guys are generous to Canada and do a decent job. I am glad they do, but that is not my view. I want Canada to qualify and watch the US on the outside, like we have been for decades. We are not their kid brother and I am sick of how we behave like we are, so docile

If we qualify top three with Panama and Costa Rica, that'd be my best case scenario (yes, and best scenario is that Panama and Canada play to a tame draw last day to both make the final 3!). 

 

Apparently Herdman and Berhalter talk to each other 

[canuckgbp]

3 minutes ago, narduch said:

Apparently Herdman and Berhalter talk to each other