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WCQ: Third Round - Window 3 (November 12-16, 2021)


dyslexic nam

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Updating my preferred result for Costa Rica/Honduras on the fly. 

If El Salvador win —> draw/CRC win

Panama win or draw —> Costa Rica win

The whole justification for the CRC win is somewhat undercut if Panama lose, but we also don’t want Honduras to get back into the fray, so I’m hesitant to abandon that position.

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5 hours ago, sstackho said:

el_noido's simulation model suggests a draw is the marginally best result for Canada in this match.  But not a big impact regardless. 

Impact to Canada's chances of finishing Top 3 based on each possible result tonight (Home Win / Draw / Away Win):

image.png.9df36de2a34114d106040da8703753e2.png

@footballfreak's analysis about keeping teams interested in playing their best roster also has merit - and the simulation model doesn't consider that. 

So with the Costa Rca, Panama, Canada wins and US tie. Our odds went up 8.2% (10.9 - 0.5 - 2.8 + 0.6)

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