WCQ: Third Round - Window 3 (November 12-16, 2021)

[Addona]

Even when Honduras loses, they fuckin screw us!

[CanadianSoccerFan]

Our draw against Honduras really burns in hindsight.

[sstackho]

39 minutes ago, sstackho said:

FFS Honduras.  How do you manage to find new ways to screw us?  And you think I disliked you before...

Thanks to Honduras, there isn't much change in our chance of finishing in the Top 3.

And here is the expected change to Canada's theoretical 78.7% chance of making the Top 3, based on the potential results of each of the Matchday 8 matches.

Let's go, El Salvador...

 

Edited November 13, 2021 by sstackho

[footballfreak]

Updated cards & suspensions. Let me know if you spot an error. 

New colour scheme:

Bright yellow card = active yellow

pale yellow card = previously served yellow

bright red card = active red

pale red card = previously served red

Red player = suspended for next match

Yellow player = on a yellow

Green player = previous infractions cleared

 

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

8 minutes ago, footballfreak said:

Updated cards & suspensions. Let me know if you spot an error....

pale red card = previously served red

https://digitalhub.fifa.com/m/1380cb79426a8218/original/FIFA_Disciplinary-Overview_2022-FWC-qualifiers_01-Nov-2021_Full.pdf

I guess Narciso Orellana should be pale red for two matches because FIFA extended his red card suspension by a match.

Really great work to keep track of all of that!

Edited November 13, 2021 by Olympique_de_Marseille

[cronaldo7]

1 hour ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Take a look at the Panama goals, that seems suspicious.

I don't have any basis to say this, but the Honduras back line was an ode to passivity on all three goals, like they gave up. 

Thing is: both Honduras goals are also similar, a defender weak clearing or controlling as the last man and getting picked by a striker.

So that is really all five goals like that. You can see them embedded in this article:

https://elcomercio.pe/deporte-total/futbol-mundial/panama-vs-honduras-en-vivo-como-y-donde-ver-gratis-el-partido-por-las-eliminatorias-qatar-2022-futbol-en-vivo-partidos-de-hoy-nczd-dtbn-noticia/

 

 

This first Panamanian goal looks especially suspicious. 

[footballfreak]

4 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

https://digitalhub.fifa.com/m/1380cb79426a8218/original/FIFA_Disciplinary-Overview_2022-FWC-qualifiers_01-Nov-2021_Full.pdf

I guess Narciso Orellana should be pale red for two matches because FIFA extended his red card suspension by a match.

Really great work to keep track of all of that!

Orellana just served his second match. He’s clear. 

[rkomar]

26 minutes ago, sstackho said:

And here is the expected change to Canada's theoretical 78.7% chance of making the Top 3, based on the potential results of each of the Matchday 8 matches.

Let's go, El Salvador...

 

I have a stupid question.  What the Hell are H, D and A?

[footballfreak]

4 minutes ago, rkomar said:

I have a stupid question.  What the Hell are H, D and A?

Home Win, Draw, Away Win

[footballfreak]

Someone asked that I continue this, so here are modified H/A standings after match 7. 

[footballfreak]

Honduras and El Salvador are a combined 1-4-4 at home. Before qualifying started we might have targeted 4 or 5 points from the January window. With Panama’s result tonight, 5 is probably the bare minimum, and 6+ should be the expectation.

[Ruud]

9 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Take a look at the Panama goals, that seems suspicious.

I don't have any basis to say this, but the Honduras back line was an ode to passivity on all three goals, like they gave up. 

Thing is: both Honduras goals are also similar, a defender weak clearing or controlling as the last man and getting picked by a striker.

So that is really all five goals like that. You can see them embedded in this article:

https://elcomercio.pe/deporte-total/futbol-mundial/panama-vs-honduras-en-vivo-como-y-donde-ver-gratis-el-partido-por-las-eliminatorias-qatar-2022-futbol-en-vivo-partidos-de-hoy-nczd-dtbn-noticia/

 

 

Clearly Honduras win would have given them some momentum - I can’t imagine them giving this game away.  However. I’m very concerned that Panama will get some breaks in their upcoming games that we won’t get 

[apbsmith]

It's crazy for Honduras, that is 2 games at home this cycle where they were winning and came away with 0 points. 

Honduras could be 10 points backs of 4th when they play us depending on results on Tuesday.

Edited November 13, 2021 by apbsmith

[zeelaw]

So many reasons to hate Honduras, add another.  I hope we smoke them away.

[Cheeta]

Honduras' campaign is as good as done, and it'll be tough sledding for points after this window for us so maybe a famous, and massive victory in Honduras is in the works?  Hell, next window even with all the travel we could see some joy coming back with the boys from Central America.

It's wonderful being able to feel so optimist.

Panama is interesting.  Too interested for my likings.

 

[lamptern]

12 hours ago, footballfreak said:

Tonight may have solidified Panama the most targeted team in the Ocho. The bottom 4 no longer have much chance of catching the top 3, so Panama represents the only target they can overtake. Every single Panama game is going forward is going to be desperate. 

Agreed. Every game vs Panama is a 6 point game going forward. 

[CanadaFan123]

13 hours ago, footballfreak said:

Tonight may have solidified Panama the most targeted team in the Ocho. The bottom 4 no longer have much chance of catching the top 3, so Panama represents the only target they can overtake. Every single Panama game is going forward is going to be desperate. 

Panama is just 2 points back of us and headed into their easiest match. If they win and we lose they pass us for 3rd.

Panama winning last night was a disaster.

[MauditYvon]

More or less. Bright side is that Honduras is winless in 7 games and might be eliminated soon.

[footballfreak]

3 minutes ago, CanadaFan123 said:

Panama is just 2 points back of us and headed into their easiest match. If they win and we lose they pass us for 3rd.

Panama winning last night was a disaster.

Fully aware of that. Wasn’t implying otherwise. IF we can get a point or better against Mexico, we will be ahead of Panama (on goal difference) regardless of what they do against El Salvador.

We have Honduras first up in January, who are pretty much done no matter who is in 4th place going into that game.

The Costa Rica-Honduras game actually has a big indirect effect on our chances of qualifying. If Costa Rica wins, they’re on 9 points and still in contention for 4th, with a huge home game against Panama on January 27.  If Costa Rica lose to Honduras, both of them are on 6 points and Costa Rica is done. We need a hungry Costa Rica against Panama.

 

[SpursFlu]

You know what else was fishy last night.. our yellow cards

[Jedi Ram]

UPDATED simulations with new ELO ratings and after our victory against Costa Rica.  Based on this data, at minimum 21 points is required to qualify for being top 3.  3rd Place has gone down from 61.4% to 52.9% | 4th Place has gone up from 32.8% to 43.6% ~ Thanks to shocking Panama comeback win.

We need to keep performing well and continue to take maximum points at home and at minimum draws on away games. Looking back at earlier qualifying games, one thing stood out to me is the Home draw to Honduras which now kind of look disappointing given the current state of Honduras.

[footballfreak]

9 minutes ago, Jedi Ram said:

UPDATED simulations with new ELO ratings and after our victory against Costa Rica.  Based on this data, at minimum 21 points is required to qualify for being top 3.  3rd Place has gone down from 61.4% to 52.9% | 4th Place has gone up from 32.8% to 43.6% ~ Thanks to shocking Panama comeback win.

We need to keep performing well and continue to take maximum points at home and at minimum draws on away games. Looking back at earlier qualifying games, one thing stood out to me is the Home draw to Honduras which now kind of look disappointing given the current state of Honduras.

With respect to road draws, I think we really need to update our expectations given the way the standings have stratified into a top and bottom 4. Those bottom 4 teams are going to start looking ahead to next cycle soon - trying new things with young players, firing coaches, etc. Draws in those games probably aren’t going to be enough. We need multiple road wins barring an unlikely sweep of our remaining home games.

If we set 25 points as a target, we need 12 points from 7 games.  

• 3 from USA or Mexico
• 3 from Jamaica

That leaves 6 points from 4 road games.

@ Honduras, @ El Salvador, @ Costa Rica are all winnable. If we can’t take 6 points from those games, we probably go into the Panama away match needing a result. 

[Yoginess]

Now that collective CONCACAF media firmly agrees Davies is the best player in the region, I find myself happy seeing Pulisic doing well again. He can be the man in the mirror. 

[SthMelbRed]

6 hours ago, SpursFlu said:

You know what else was fishy last night.. our yellow cards

Which one? The cards to Laryea and Vittoria were nailed on yellows. I have zero issues with the refereeing from yesterday. I'd be happy to have that guy do all of our CONCACAF matches.

[SthMelbRed]

4 hours ago, footballfreak said:

With respect to road draws, I think we really need to update our expectations given the way the standings have stratified into a top and bottom 4. Those bottom 4 teams are going to start looking ahead to next cycle soon - trying new things with young players, firing coaches, etc. Draws in those games probably aren’t going to be enough. We need multiple road wins barring an unlikely sweep of our remaining home games.

If we set 25 points as a target, we need 12 points from 7 games.  

• 3 from USA or Mexico
• 3 from Jamaica

That leaves 6 points from 4 road games.

@ Honduras, @ El Salvador, @ Costa Rica are all winnable. If we can’t take 6 points from those games, we probably go into the Panama away match needing a result. 

We'll be on 23 points going into the last game in Panama. We'll still be unbeaten. The only question will be whether that's enough to make the last game meaningless, or not, with regards to 3rd and 4th place.