WCQ: Third Round - Window 3 (November 12-16, 2021)

[Kent]

25 minutes ago, boris4c said:

Why are there no fans in Panama? And why were there no fans in Jamaica when we played them? Some sort of FIFA sanction I assume? 

I'm not sure why for Panama, but the Jamaica vs Canada game was due to COVID rules from the Jamaican government.

[urdiub]

36 minutes ago, boris4c said:

Why are there no fans in Panama? And why were there no fans in Jamaica when we played them? Some sort of FIFA sanction I assume? 

1 game stadium ban due to discriminatory chants during their game vs USA.

http://www.insideworldfootball.com/2021/10/18/panama-el-salvador-sanctioned-closed-stadia-fans-homophobic-chants-us/

[Sal333]

37 minutes ago, footballfreak said:

Draws WERE the best results when everyone was close together. Now, virtually any bottom 4 win against the top 4 is the best result for us.

You forgot, we're a top 4 team.

[maplebanana]

2 hours ago, Kent said:

So today, we obviously want El Salvador to beat Panama, and we want Honduras to beat Costa Rica. The less obvious one is Jamaica vs USA. I think I want Jamaica to beat USA, but maybe only if we also beat Mexico. If we lose to Mexico, Jamaica being at 9 points makes me a bit more nervous.

I am still worried about Jamaica, as they are the only team that has played only 2 home games thus far. i.e. they have 5 home games out of the next 7! 

Before this window I was ready to say that we would be fighting with JAM for 3rd/4th, assuming PAN would fall off eventually. Now I'm thinking it's a 3 way fight. So that means I'm hoping for a USA win or draw.

[EJsens1]

I saw some others mention it earlier but still no word on whether the US-Jamaica will be broadcasted on OneSoccer’s YouTube channel?  Because it sure isn’t mentioned on their own site 

[footballfreak]

31 minutes ago, Sal333 said:

You forgot, we're a top 4 team.

I didn’t forget. I just took for granted that people would understand that a loss for us is bad. In retrospect, the last two years of Covid probably should have taught me never to assume people understand basic math.

[EJsens1]

15 minutes ago, EJsens1 said:

I saw some others mention it earlier but still no word on whether the US-Jamaica will be broadcasted on OneSoccer’s YouTube channel?  Because it sure isn’t mentioned on their own site 

I just tweeted with One Soccer.  They got back to me and said IT IS on their YouTube channel.  Great news!!

[Neil R.]

55 minutes ago, Kent said:

I'm not sure why for Panama, but the Jamaica vs Canada game was due to COVID rules from the Jamaican government.

Panama was fined 50,000 Swiss francs and given a 1 match spectator ban for homophobic chants.

There could be fans tonight, however. Panama appealed the decision and as of a week ago, FIFA agreed to suspend those disciplinary measures until a decision was made on the appeal, so tonight's match may not be the one that is played behind closed doors, if the appeal is rejected.

I wonder how long it takes the Appeals Committee to render a decision. If they wanted to wait until March 25th, that would be perfectly fine with us.

[mrstepp817]

At this point as weird as it sounds rooting for US and Mexico wins against anyone not Canada is probably best for Canada...and for the US and Mexico its best to root for Canada..the more points taken off those 5 teams who could challenge the better for them IMO

Edited November 16, 2021 by mrstepp817

[footballfreak]

49 minutes ago, maplebanana said:

I am still worried about Jamaica, as they are the only team that has played only 2 home games thus far. i.e. they have 5 home games out of the next 7! 

Before this window I was ready to say that we would be fighting with JAM for 3rd/4th, assuming PAN would fall off eventually. Now I'm thinking it's a 3 way fight. So that means I'm hoping for a USA win or draw.

Jamaica could still go on a run, but I think the concern is overblown at this point. We keep saying they’re dangerous, and they keep putting up duds. They have 1 win, against a terrible Honduras team - and they were handily outplayed in that game. They have been outshot and out possessed in every game they have played. El Salvador had 59% possession and outshot them 18-8.

They have 7 games left and would max out at 27 points if they win out. But they’re not going to to win out. Even if we give them Honduras and El Salvador at home, which are not givens, they still have 5 hard games left: USA (H), Mexico (H), Panama (A), Costa Rica (H), Canada (A).

Mexico is Mexico, Panama are rock solid at home and already spanked Jamaica 3-0 in Kingston, Costa Rica don’t concede many goals, and we are arguably their hardest game left after today.

The ELO model pegs them finishing with 15.1 pts - 9.1 pts from the back half. I think that underestimates them and can see them taking somewhere between 10-15 points, but even 15 points only puts them on 21 total. 21 is looking exceedingly unlikely to threaten third place.

[footballfreak]

53 minutes ago, mrstepp817 said:

At this point as weird as it sounds rooting for US and Mexico wins against anyone not Canada is probably best for Canada...and for the US and Mexico its best to root for Canada..the more points taken off those 5 teams who could challenge the better for them IMO

Respectfully, it is really very much not this. The bottom 4 are no longer serious threats to the top 3 barring a long string of unlikely results from one of them.

We want the bottom 4 close enough to 4th that they don’t give up and roll over against Panama. Given the sequencing of matches, the ideal scenario is Costa Rica and Jamaica acting as foils for Panama in January, only to fall by the wayside before we play them in March. We play both teams 3 match days after Panama. 

Panama is THE threat in something like 90% of the scenarios remaining. Every result that in some way contributes to making them more uncomfortable is good for us. For the forseeable future, the rules for a Canada fan should be, in descending order:

1. Panama loses
2. USA loses unless rule 1
3. Mexico loses unless rule 1 or 2
4. Jamaica loses unless rule 1, 2, or 3
5. Costa Rica wins the next 2 games (vs Honduras to stay close to Panama, And against Panama for obvious reasons). After that, we want them to lose.

Edit: Forgot to add, the reason for rules 2 and 3 are twofold.

1. We can still finish ahead of the US or Mexico, and one of them could easily drop into 4th. Particularly the US, who has 4 road games left like us, including Mexico away. Losses for them marginally increase our odds of a top 3 finish. 

2. Potentially more important: we don’t want either of them getting comfortable and dropping points to Panama. USA plays Panama on match day 13. Do you really want them to have already qualified and trot out the B side in that game?

Edited November 16, 2021 by footballfreak

[narduch]

1 hour ago, EJsens1 said:

I just tweeted with One Soccer.  They got back to me and said IT IS on their YouTube channel.  Great news!!

Thanks.

I don't understand why they don't widely advertise when they have free streams

[Bison44]

43 minutes ago, narduch said:

Thanks.

I don't understand why they don't widely advertise when they have free streams

They want to get some late people to sign up for the short term deals.  My mom told me if you give the milk away for free, no one will marry your sister.  

[narduch]

 

[narduch]

 

[jonovision]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but is this the first match of the Octagon to have started so early in the day (local time)?

[Approve My Account Pls]

47 minutes ago, narduch said:

 

 

39 minutes ago, narduch said:

 

This has upset written all over it to me

[Floortom]

Classic trap game - wouldnt be at all surprised if US drops points here. 

[narduch]

15 minutes ago, jonovision said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but is this the first match of the Octagon to have started so early in the day (local time)?

We played them at 6pm I think. I wonder if they always stick to Standard Time.

[Kadenge]

Weird that the US would start such a young team away to Jamaica with Antonio, Reid and Bailey up front

[narduch]

Jamaica v USA is underway.

 

[Floortom]

Is it just me or does the Jamaican pitch look decent?

[Metro]

1 hour ago, narduch said:

 

Here is the link:

Edit: I see Narduch posted it above.  Sorry for the double post.

Edited November 16, 2021 by Metro

[canuckgbp]

3 minutes ago, Floortom said:

Is it just me or does the Jamaican pitch look decent?

Think Bailey just looked at it in disgust when the ball went out of bounds lol. 

Edited November 16, 2021 by canuckgbp

[canuckgbp]

Nope. When it zooms it you can see it starting to come up in big chunks lol.