WCQ: Third Round - Window 3 (November 12-16, 2021)

[Free kick]

21 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Take a look at the Panama goals, that seems suspicious.

I don't have any basis to say this, but the Honduras back line was an ode to passivity on all three goals, like they gave up. 

Thing is: both Honduras goals are also similar, a defender weak clearing or controlling as the last man and getting picked by a striker.

So that is really all five goals like that. You can see them embedded in this article:

https://elcomercio.pe/deporte-total/futbol-mundial/panama-vs-honduras-en-vivo-como-y-donde-ver-gratis-el-partido-por-las-eliminatorias-qatar-2022-futbol-en-vivo-partidos-de-hoy-nczd-dtbn-noticia/

 

 

I agree.  I looked at the highlights.  On YouTube.  It looks to me that the first two of the Panama goals were gifted.   If there was ever an investigation,  one would think that the Honduran defender #3 (Figueroa) should be first one interrogated.  

I read a book a couple of years ago that touched briefly on match fixing in soccer.  It’s never a whole team that has to be in in the collusion but rather a few select players.  One being a central defender. 

Edited November 14, 2021 by Free kick

[Kent]

21 hours ago, Floortom said:

Panama became the first team in World Cup qualifying history to win an away match that they were down by 2 in the 75th minute. Pretty wild.

I’m already thinking of that last qualifying match in Panama…. 

Is this true? Just in CONCACAF or world wide? Do you have a source? Sorry for the third degree, I'm just curious about this. As you say, it's pretty wild.

[Strait Red]

Another twitter page and their percentage odds for World Cup qualification.

We’re sitting pretty according to them.

 

[trc2014]

Should I book my March flight to Panama yet?

[footballfreak]

1 hour ago, Strait Red said:

Another twitter page and their percentage odds for World Cup qualification.

We’re sitting pretty according to them.

 

Those odds include the possibility of qualifying via playoff, which is probably why they look so bullish compared to the other model. If you take El Noido’s numbers and do a little back of the napkin fudgery:

Qualify via top 3: 79.1%

Qualify via playoff: 16.6% x 0.5 = 8.3% 

79.1% + 8.3% = 87.4%

So We Global Football likes us perhaps a hair more than El Noido, but not by much. I would also guess that their model for predicting the playoffs gives us better odds than my coin flip. If you take a pool of Canada, New Zealand, Asia 5 (ex Australia) and CONMEBOL 5, we’re probably better than 50/50 to win at least 2 of those matchups. 

Seems like the two models are pretty similar tbh.

[SthMelbRed]

1 hour ago, footballfreak said:

Those odds include the possibility of qualifying via playoff, which is probably why they look so bullish compared to the other model. If you take El Noido’s numbers and do a little back of the napkin fudgery:

Qualify via top 3: 79.1%

Qualify via playoff: 16.6% x 0.5 = 8.3% 

79.1% + 8.3% = 87.4%

So We Global Football likes us perhaps a hair more than El Noido, but not by much. I would also guess that their model for predicting the playoffs gives us better odds than my coin flip. If you take a pool of Canada, New Zealand, Asia 5 (ex Australia) and CONMEBOL 5, we’re probably better than 50/50 to win at least 2 of those matchups. 

Seems like the two models are pretty similar tbh.

I'd be confident against any of the AFC likely candidates (Japan, Saudi, Australia - I reckon whoever finishes 3rd in Group B will easily dispose of the Group A 3rd place), other than Japan. I definitely like our chances against NZ, and I'd be quietly confident against all but 1 or 2 of the likely South American 5th place finishers.

[WestHamCanadianinOxford]

Really hope Antonio can do something similar to his goal last night against the States.

Keep Jamaica in with a chance and interested in January.  A couple points taken off Mexico or Panama or both would not be unappreciated.

[trc2014]

On 11/12/2021 at 10:05 PM, CanadianSoccerFan said:

Our draw against Honduras really burns in hindsight.

The way I look at that, we were lucky to get a draw; could have easily been a loss.  As such, stings less to me.

[pod818]

it would be nice if El Salvador can get a draw in Panama, that would make it sting less too

[dyslexic nam]

For me, the inability to win away in Jamaica is at least as frustrating as the home game against Honduras.   Those 2 extra points would have had the same overall effect on our total, but would have also confirmed (early) to the boys that we can win away, and it would have knocked Jamaica further out of contention.  With their weakened team and lack of crowd, it was the perfect chance to grab 3 road points.  Despite the subsequent point in Mexico I am still not entirely convinced we approached that window the right way.   

[Kadenge]

There are going to be games where we get results we did not expect  and games where we drop points. At the start of the octagon the consensus was 21 points for Qatar. Half way we are at 13.  The schedule is not balanced but this team has proven it can get results away. Honduras and ES are in 8th and 7th place at present. Some of the US pundits have stated we may be better suited to play away with our speed on the  counter. The odds are that Panama will falter at some stage. I'm just hoping we can get a result on Tuesday. 

[dyslexic nam]

6 minutes ago, Kadenge said:

There are going to be games where we get results we did not expect  and games where we drop points. At the start of the octagon the consensus was 21 points for Qatar. Half way we are at 13.  The schedule is not balanced but this team has proven it can get results away. Honduras and ES are in 8th and 7th place at present. Some of the US pundits have stated we may be better suited to play away with our speed on the  counter. The odds are that Panama will falter at some stage. I'm just hoping we can get a result on Tuesday. 

For me one of the biggest things is whether or not Panama stumble and drop a few key points.   I have no idea what will happen on Tuesday, but I think we will generally continue to accumulate points at a solid pace.  But Panama slipping up to give us some breathing room would be a huge help - and one I really hope materializes.  

[Unnamed Trialist]

1 hour ago, trc2014 said:

The way I look at that, we were lucky to get a draw; could have easily been a loss.  As such, stings less to me.

I personally think our penalty was gifted to us, I am just in denial about this, but really think we were very lucky to get it. 

[Floortom]

24 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

For me one of the biggest things is whether or not Panama stumble and drop a few key points.   I have no idea what will happen on Tuesday, but I think we will generally continue to accumulate points at a solid pace.  But Panama slipping up to give us some breathing room would be a huge help - and one I really hope materializes.  

Panama likely has to win all of their remaining homes matches (El Salvador, Jamaica, Honduras and Canada) to get a top 3 spot. That seems like a tall task to not have a slip up or two (ie one loss or a couple of draws).

their last three away matches are very tough (USA, Mexico and Costa Rica). Of course we need them to lose all three of those are get one draw at most 

[narduch]

 

[CanadianSoccerFan]

On 11/13/2021 at 12:28 AM, cronaldo7 said:

This first Panamanian goal looks especially suspicious. 

Figueroa with shady decision making on all three goals.  2nd goal he just lets the whole Panama team in behind without tracking the run and hardly appeals for offside.  The play leading to the free kick of the third goal was a shady header back to the keeper that was never getting there.  And the first goal?  WTF!  He's so experienced!  38 years old with years in the Premier League.  Guys like that don't make decisions that poor.

[Jedi Ram]

20 hours ago, Free kick said:

I agree.  I looked at the highlights.  On YouTube.  It looks to me that the first two of the Panama goals were gifted.   If there was ever an investigation,  one would think that the Honduran defender #3 (Figueroa) should be first one interrogated.  

I read a book a couple of years ago that touched briefly on match fixing in soccer.  It’s never a whole team that has to be in in the collusion but rather a few select players.  One being a central defender. 

After watching on YouTube, I kind of disagree.  1st Panama goal was simply a mistake by the defender who had one of those days.  2nd Panama goal was definitely an off-side but thanks to CONCACAF no VAR.  3rd goal was simply brilliant.

They earned this victory.  Honduras just simply shut down in the latter part of the game thinking it's in the bag.

[footballfreak]

Threw this together for fun. We’re a bunch of shit disturbers apparently. Hopefully El Salvador can get Panama to break from their disciplined start.

Edited November 14, 2021 by footballfreak
“Cards Created” = Cards given to the opposition

[Jedi Ram]

 

[Neil R.]

Costa Rica, Jamaica, and El Salvador must also be disappointed with the Honduran collapse on Friday night. If Honduras had defeated Panama, no one would be more than 2 points out of the intercontinental playoff spot right now.

[Free kick]

Yes, with 5 pts separating 4th from 5th,  there is a risk that if that gaps widens then 5th thru 8th might fall out of contention and have nothing to play for.  Which could mean that it will be harder for canada to distance itself from panama in 4th.    Our last game is in Panama in March, we dont want that game to decide who gets 3rd place and 4th place. 

Edited November 14, 2021 by Free kick

[Kadenge]

9 minutes ago, Free kick said:

With 5 pts separating 4th from 5th,  there is a risk that if that gaps widens then 5th thru 8th might fall out of contention and have nothing to play for.  Which could mean that it will be harder for canada to distance ourself from panama in 4th.    Our last game is in Panama in March, so we dont want that game to decide who gets 3rd place and 4th place. 

Panama still has to play Mexico and USA away.

[jonovision]

3 minutes ago, Kadenge said:

Panama still has to play Mexico and USA away.

Panama will stumble. So will we. Who stumbles harder may decide things.

Or we could just win the group.

[Free kick]

40 minutes ago, Kadenge said:

Panama still has to play Mexico and USA away.

Yes.  But they got one more home game than we do.  Of the remaining 7, four are home games for Pan.  We have only three left.  
 

Also,  the 21 points theory that we have all been banking on, might hold anymore.  Not if we want 3rd place.  They could realistically be on 21 pts before their final match against us. This is assuming that they lose their away games against the US and Mex.  

Edited November 15, 2021 by Free kick

[jonovision]

3 minutes ago, Free kick said:

Yes.  But they got one more home game than we do.  Of the remaining 7, four are home games for Pan.  We have only three left.  

They have a better schedule. We have a better team. Let's see how it shakes out.