WCQ: Jamaica vs Canada - Sunday, Oct 10, 6pm Eastern / 3pm Pacific - Kingston, Jamaica

[Cblake]

4 minutes ago, footballfreak said:

I find it curious that people are saying Herdman doesn’t do much rotation.

Game 1–>2:  5 changes

5 repeat starters. Davies (90/77), Johnston (90/90), Eustaquio(90/90), Larin (90/65), Laryea (90/90)

Game 2—>3: 6 changes.

4 repeat starters. Johnston (90/90), Laryea(90/90), Eustaquio (90/90), Hoilett (65/57)

Laryea would probably be starting @ Jamaica if not for the suspension. I still expect at least 5 changes. Knowing Herdman, Johnston and Eustaquio probably start and we pray the latter doesn’t get a card. 

——

 @ Mexico:

Crepeau, Laryea, Miller, Vitoria, Johnston(76), Kaye(76), Eustaquio, Osorio(77), Davies, Buchanan, David(86)

——

@Jamaica 

Crepeau, Adekugbe, Miller/Cornelius, Henry, Johnston(70), Kaye(70)/Piette/Fraser, Eustaquio, Osorio(70), Millar, Hoilett, Shaffelburg

Davies and David as super subs. Swap in one to the starting lineup for Shaff/Millar if you like, but almost certainly not both. 

——

vs Panama

Crepeau, Laryea, Miller, Vitoria, Johnston, Eustaqio (hopefully), Kaye/Piette/Fraser, Osorio, Davies, Buchanan, David

 

He certainly does rotate, you can certainly see that from your post. How many playing tomorrow are on a yellow card? I hope that does not play into his lineup choices considering how many will be back come Wednesday. Man love your Shaff choice , just want to see this kid out there and this is the type of game where it makes sense all things considering. 

[gator]

The thing that many don't seem to take into account is some of the starters from the Azteca could very well still be gassed and unavailable after their heroic 90 minutes, we can't make assumptions of who is available after a match like that!

[Cblake]

3 minutes ago, gator said:

The thing that many don't seem to take into account is some of the starters from the Azteca could very well still be gassed and unavailable after their heroic 90 minutes, we can't make assumptions of who is available after a match like that!

Absolutely, I was at the game in Nashville and I the moment I saw Phonzie walking off the field I highly doubted he would be available vs El Salvador, which in the end proved to be the case. Games can certainly take it out of a player. Will be interesting to see who can play and not over the next two games. 

[Joe Keeper]

 

I'm trying to advocate for looking at the overall schedule and points table as a whole cycle over the long haul.

Both this and the Panama game are worth 3 points for a winner which has drastic implications if we lose either. However, a loss to Jamaica brings them right back in to this and that or a draw leaves us far more vulnerable to the other teams who will get results over time. 

Second, we must win on the road at some points. Taking this game as seriously as the home games at this stage in the schedule is vital, especially against an ailing Jamaica who will get better. Look at Herdman's interview from today; he is not taking this Jamaican side as lightly as you are. This is a massive two games for us. 

Third, take your argument that we must consider Jamaica away versus Panama home and away and bring the rest of the schedule in to this. Panama home or away will be tough, yes, but we have already dropped valuable home points to Honduras we arguably need to try to make up the earlier the better. Say we undervalue Jamaica and draw or loose to them and then also drop points to Panama, we are in trouble. We have to go to Honduras, Costa Rica and El Salvador after this. 

14 games is alot more than we are used to, but every game has to be planned for and valued the same. This whole race might come down to us making it or not on 1 to 4 points. Plus, the difference is massive between a top 3 finish and having to go in to a very risky international qualifyer (posdibly against a CONMEBOL side). 

Squad rotation as we all know is somewhat inevitable. The more we rotate the squad right now away from our best players, the higher the likelihood we come away with a couple bad results in these 2 games if we undervalue Jamaica, and put more stock in running the table at home. That may not even work for the US and Mexico in qualifyers that have demonstrated increasing parity in concacaf right now. On the other side, the closer in points we run to the big two, tbthe e greater our chances of qualifying. 

This team, if we take a winning approach to all games, could still finish second or better if we start believing we can. The team is already frustrated by not winning more already. They want this...

This leads to my final point really;  all too often Canada has failed because we dont take all games seriously enough. Its not just down to player quality in the last 2 decades or so. We have been so intimidated and mystified by away WCQers we often have mailed them in. This has to be changed now. 

I get the impression the other teams will be gunning for wins when they play us up here. They know that is how to stop us if they see us put our home games too far above our away dates. This time, we must value away games very highly, especially if we ever expect to truly break through long term. 

 

 

[footballfreak]

26 minutes ago, gator said:

The thing that many don't seem to take into account is some of the starters from the Azteca could very well still be gassed and unavailable after their heroic 90 minutes, we can't make assumptions of who is available after a match like that!

I initially proposed a lineup with much more rotation for precisely that reason, but Herdman made some key subs that probably make a few key guys available for 45-70 mins.

David is almost  certainly out. Almost the full 90, didn’t play well, and Herdman doesn’t like to start him two games in a row.

Davies 50-50. I’d rather use him in the second half, but others disagree.

Kaye saw a lot of the ball due to Eustaquio being marked so tightly, and he’s also the most replaceable out of the midfield 3, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him sit.

Eustaquio is a question mark. He doesn’t seem to tire, but he played 90 and he’s on a yellow. With so many starters out out, i think he needs to start anyways to provide stability, even if he only goes 60. If he gets a yellow, leave him on and run him into the ground.

Pretty sure Oso starts. Hopefully we can get him off after 60-70. Not sure if that’s wishful thinking on my part.

ZBG for Johnston possible if he needs it, but the dude is a tank. 

Cornelius was likely brought back as an option to deal with Shamar Nicholson in the air. Not sure if I want to run a pairing of Henry/Cornelius, but needs must if Miller can’t go.

Hoilett, Henry and Adekugbe for Buchanan, Vitoria and Laryea are pretty much a given.

[Joe Keeper]

5 hours ago, footballfreak said:

I bolded that passage because I vehemently disagree. The Panama game is more important - they are the team closest to us in the standings, and are very difficult to beat when they are at home. If we draw or lose to them at home, it puts us in position of either needing a result on the road, or making up a 3/6 point deficit in the rest of our games. 

Six points is still the goal with squad rotation, but the die was already cast by going for it against Mexico. Players needed rest somewhere, and it’s not going to be at home to Panama.

If you go for it from the first whistle, you run into the same problem as the Mexico game - when do you sub off the stars? If it’s 0-0 at half? at 70 mins? Rotating the squad allows us to run Jamaica hard from the first whistle, still have weapons in reserve if things go pear shaped, and be ready to stick it to Panama on Wednesday.

Jamaica has no central midfield. We will have the lions share of possession almost regardless of who we start. That’s not disrespect. It is an honest assessment of their squad right now. They brought a 37 year-old Je-Vaughn Watson back, having played just 5 USL Championship games in the last 2 years, and he played 90 minutes against the USA. They are dangerous up front and we need to respect that, but our backline pretty much picks itself regardless of which strategy you employ. We need energy and defensive grit in the first half, and incisiveness to kill them off in the second.

I'm trying to advocate for looking at the overall schedule and points table as a whole cycle over the long haul.

Both this and the Panama game are worth 3 points for a winner which has drastic implications if we lose either. However, a loss to Jamaica brings them right back in to this and that or a draw leaves us far more vulnerable to the other teams who will get results over time. 

Second, we must win on the road at some points. Taking this game as seriously as the home games at this stage in the schedule is vital, especially against an ailing Jamaica who will get better. Look at Herdman's interview from today; he is not taking this Jamaican side as lightly as you are. This is a massive two games for us. 

Third, take your argument that we must consider Jamaica away versus Panama home and away and bring the rest of the schedule in to this. Panama home or away will be tough, yes, but we have already dropped valuable home points to Honduras we arguably need to try to make up the earlier the better. Say we undervalue Jamaica and draw or loose to them and then also drop points to Panama, we are in trouble. We have to go to Honduras, Costa Rica and El Salvador after this. 

14 games is alot more than we are used to, but every game has to be planned for and valued the same. This whole race might come down to us making it or not on 1 to 4 points. Plus, the difference is massive between a top 3 finish and having to go in to a very risky international qualifyer (posdibly against a CONMEBOL side). 

Squad rotation as we all know is somewhat inevitable. The more we rotate the squad right now away from our best players, the higher the likelihood we come away with a couple bad results in these 2 games if we undervalue Jamaica, and put more stock in running the table at home. That may not even work for the US and Mexico in qualifyers that have demonstrated increasing parity in concacaf right now. On the other side, the closer in points we run to the big two, the greater our chances of qualifying. 

This team, if we take a winning approach to all games, could still finish second or better if we start believing we can. The team is already frustrated by not winning more. They want this...

This leads to my final point really;  all too often Canada has failed because we dont take all games seriously enough. Its not just down to player quality in the last 2 decades or so. We have been so intimidated and mystified by away WCQers we often have mailed them in. This has to be changed now. 

I get the impression the other teams will be gunning for wins when they play us up here. They know that is how to stop us if they see us put our home games too far above our away dates. This time, we must value away games very highly, especially if we ever expect to truly break through long term. 

 

Edited October 10, 2021 by Joe Keeper

[CanadaFan123]

@Joe Keeperwe’ve already made up for the Honduras draw. We dropped two points and have collected 2 vs the USA and Mexico now.

[Joe Keeper]

24 minutes ago, CanadaFan123 said:

@Joe Keeperwe’ve already made up for the Honduras draw. We dropped two points and have collected 2 vs the USA and Mexico now.

Mathematically, i get your point but its based on the assumption the team were expecting to lose both those away games. I dont think they were... 

Many fans and people in the media ( as always) automatically do that due to our past. 

[footballfreak]

10 minutes ago, Joe Keeper said:

I'm trying to advocate for looking at the overall schedule and points table as a whole cycle over the long haul.

Both this and the Panama game are worth 3 points for a winner which has drastic implications if we lose either. However, a loss to Jamaica brings them right back in to this and that or a draw leaves us far more vulnerable to the other teams who will get results over time. 

Second, we must win on the road at some points. Taking this game as seriously as the home games at this stage in the schedule is vital, especially against an ailing Jamaica who will get better. Look at Herdman's interview from today; he is not taking this Jamaican side as lightly as you are. This is a massive two games for us. 

Third, take your argument that we must consider Jamaica away versus Panama home and away and bring the rest of the schedule in to this. Panama home or away will be tough, yes, but we have already dropped valuable home points to Honduras we arguably need to try to make up the earlier the better. Say we undervalue Jamaica and draw or loose to them and then also drop points to Panama, we are in trouble. We have to go to Honduras, Costa Rica and El Salvador after this. 

14 games is alot more than we are used to, but every game has to be planned for and valued the same. This whole race might come down to us making it or not on 1 to 4 points. Plus, the difference is massive between a top 3 finish and having to go in to a very risky international qualifyer (posdibly against a CONMEBOL side). 

Squad rotation as we all know is somewhat inevitable. The more we rotate the squad right now away from our best players, the higher the likelihood we come away with a couple bad results in these 2 games if we undervalue Jamaica, and put more stock in running the table at home. That may not even work for the US and Mexico in qualifyers that have demonstrated increasing parity in concacaf right now. On the other side, the closer in points we run to the big two, the greater our chances of qualifying. 

This team, if we take a winning approach to all games, could still finish second or better if we start believing we can. The team is already frustrated by not winning more. They want this...

This leads to my final point really;  all too often Canada has failed because we dont take all games seriously enough. Its not just down to player quality in the last 2 decades or so. We have been so intimidated and mystified by away WCQers we often have mailed them in. This has to be changed now. 

I get the impression the other teams will be gunning for wins when they play us up here. They know that is how to stop us if they see us put our home games too far above our away dates. This time, we must value away games very highly, especially if we ever expect to truly break through long term. 

 

Regarding the importance of each game, we are simply not going to see eye to eye. The idea that every game has the same value doesn’t stand up to even the slightest scrutiny. A game between teams closer in the standings means more because it can produce a greater swing in the overall table. Maybe the standings change by the end and Jamaica overtakes Panama. Maybe. But as of right now, Panama are the #1 challenger to our automatic spot, and we cannot lose at home to them under any circumstances. Period. 

All that is moot though, because the whole point of squad rotation is to maximize the points we get out of BOTH games. It improves the collective odds over both games, and it improves the individual odds of each game.

I also have no idea where you get the idea I’m not taking Jamaica seriously. What I said was that they are dangerous on attack and that our defense is all but picked for us based on who is available. Adekugbe, Miller/Cornelius, Henry, Johnston/ZBG. That’s who we’ve got available. There’s a couple conversations to be had. The tradeoff between a tired Miller/Johnston and a fresh Cornelius/ZBG is up for debate, but whichever path we take it’s not some massive concession tantamount to spotting Jamaica a free goal. 

I also said their midfield three is weak. It is. Any one of our central midfield subs would walk into the current Jamaica roster and start. Any one. That’s not hubris, that’s MLS quality players vs USL/Belgian 2nd division/Semi-retired. 

@ USA 38% possession 

@ Costa Rica 43%

vs Panama 39%

@Mexico 27%

@USA (gold cup) 33%

They’re also tired and thin across the entire lineup, which means that running them to death with fit, ball-winning midfielders will almost certainly pay dividends as the match progresses and ensures we are able to regain possession quickly after we lose it. We still have the option to pull those guys out and bring in our jelly-legged superstars at any time. Except this way, it’s in the second half playing against Jamaica’s tired starters or thin bench. 

You keep talk about rotation being mailing it in, when I’m talking about playing a strategic partial rotation filled with talented, hungry, rested players who are willing to run their socks off, and desperate to prove they belong on a World Cup roster. 

It gives us the best shot at WINNING BOTH games. It puts two solid lineups out that can play at a high level for all 180 minutes. That’s the whole point.

I suppose I’ll close on this. What is your actual plan for managing minutes over BOTH GAMES, besides apparently playing all our available starters 250+ mins for the window. Three are out on suspension. Of the remaining 7, all played 76 mins or more at 2200m altitude less with less than 72 hours between games, and a travel day. David played 86 and was not very good. Davies, Eustaquio, and Miller played the full 90. Predicted temperature at kickoff is 30C with a humidex of 35.

 

______

Also, can we please not get bogged down with tangents about supposed Canadian victim mentality, baseless suppositions about being targeted for road wins (all the more reason to prioritize Panama tbh, so I’m not sure why you’re sashaying down that cul de sac), and meaningless rhetoric like “winning approach”? A winning approach is whatever wins games.

I’ll take my answers off the air. Goodnight.

[dyslexic nam]

 

CANADA:

 

JAMAICA:

 

Let’s go boys!!!!

[Unnamed Trialist]

I'm just as nervous today as last Thursday. Anyone else?

And would folks stop putting these lame predictor charts that have no basis in statistical veracity? If you want I'll get my best friend who's a sociologist and gets hired to fix statistical analysis for government reports, and he'll tear most of them apart for you, and with charm and grace.

What exactly do you think that garbage accomplishes, other than helping delude fans four games into a 14-game league?

[dyslexic nam]

Just now, Unnamed Trialist said:

I'm just as nervous today as last Thursday. Anyone else?

And would folks stop putting these lame predictor charts that have no basis in statistical veracity? If you want I'll get my best friend who's a sociologist and gets hired to fix statistical analysis for government reports, and he'll tear most of them apart for you, and with charm and grace.

What exactly do you think that garbage accomplishes, other than helping delude fans four games into a 14-game league?

But what do you really think?

[JamboAl]

1 minute ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

I'm just as nervous today as last Thursday. Anyone else?

And would folks stop putting these lame predictor charts that have no basis in statistical veracity? If you want I'll get my best friend who's a sociologist and gets hired to fix statistical analysis for government reports, and he'll tear most of them apart for you, and with charm and grace.

What exactly do you think that garbage accomplishes, other than helping delude fans four games into a 14-game league?

Relax…it’s just people with nervous energy.  You can pay as little attention to it as I do.

[Unnamed Trialist]

9 hours ago, dyslexic nam said:

But what do you really think?

Predictors are used to assist decision-making. Anticipate scenarios and then raise reliabilty of action of a speculative nature (whether financial or not). 

No one is going to be booking for Qatar until March or April anyways, don't think. Unless they are Italy fans.

[gator]

40 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

I'm just as nervous today as last Thursday. Anyone else?

 

I am more nervous, I really didn't expect anything Thursday, the point was a bonus, today's match I will say is more crucial because Jamaica can get right back in the mix or they can tank and most of our rivals will take points in their corresponding fixture!

[CanadaFan123]

I’m not too worried about our guys being tired for Panama at home because:

1) Panama will be just as tired and with less depth

2) BMO field Wednesday will be unlike any home atmosphere Canada has ever experienced. It’s going to breathe life into the squad. 

[Addona]

Are Vitoria, Laryea, and Tajon already in Toronto?

[king1010]

6 minutes ago, Addona said:

Are Vitoria, Laryea, and Tajon already in Toronto?

Id assume no. Would be beneficial to still have them practicing with the team as opposed to training on their own in Toronto. 

[Kadenge]

The quality of our squad depth in this window is weaker than for window 1 and that's a fact. We don't have Atiba & Larin. Both were big contributors and I'm not including Kennedy, Cav and Borjan as Scott/Cav played less than a half and Crepeau  can do the job. Fatigue and load management is key and I trust JH and his staff to evaluate that.  Hoilett, Adekugbe and Henry are experienced quality "A" players you can start without question. I would even include ZBG and probably Millar based on his recent form. Shaff starting his first game for Canada in an away WCQ???  Look I hope I'm wrong but we can't wing it v Jamaica. We need to put our "best team" out there to win from the start. Get an early goal and ramp up pressure on Jamaica and them make early subs. 

[MtlMario]

After the lousy game David had I do not know if we bench him for this game and start him vs Panama or start him again and have him redeem himself with a great game (which I'm sure he wants to)? As for predictions, I don't believe in them especially if they concern the future, that's why I leave it up to my crystal ball.😀

BTW we are getting 6 more points this window as previously stated.

Edited October 10, 2021 by MtlMario

[Sal333]

6 minutes ago, MtlMario said:

After the lousy game David had I do not know if we bench him for this game and start him vs Panama or start him again and have him redeem himself with a great game (which I'm sure he wants to)? As for predictions, I don't believe in them especially if they concern the future, that's why I leave it up to my crystal ball.😀

BTW we are getting 6 more points this window as previously stated.

If you remember my cheap crystal ball predicted a draw while your deluxe shiny rosebud claimed a victory. Usually my ball doesn't give scores. It did this time. Three nil for the good boys. That's the good boys, not the reggae boyz.

Edited October 10, 2021 by Sal333

[gator]

4 minutes ago, MtlMario said:

After the lousy game David had I do not know if we bench him for this game and start him vs Panama or start him again and have him redeem himself with a great game (which I'm sure he wants to)? As for predictions, I don't believe in them especially if they concern the future, that's why I leave it up to my crystal ball.😀

BTW we are getting 6 more points this window as previously stated.

I didn't think David was lousy, just starved for service, he didn't see much of the ball and at times had to drop deep to help out in the midfield, he did make a mess of that 3 on 2 late on but that was also a poor pass from Davies, David pressed well I thought for 80 minutes! I am not concerned about him whatsoever, I am sure he will play well whether that is tonight or Wednesday!

[dyslexic nam]

19 minutes ago, gator said:

I didn't think David was lousy, just starved for service, he didn't see much of the ball and at times had to drop deep to help out in the midfield, he did make a mess of that 3 on 2 late on but that was also a poor pass from Davies, David pressed well I thought for 80 minutes! I am not concerned about him whatsoever, I am sure he will play well whether that is tonight or Wednesday!

I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle.  He did some things well (pressed high lots) but he also didn’t do anything offensively.  Starved for service or not, an elite striker needs to be able to either make chances for himself or get into positions where his teammates can find him (based on the run of play).  

But he is quality and everyone can have a tough night.  No idea if he starts tonight (I expect he is fit enough to do so - especially with how thin we are up front) but whenever he plays I think he will do the job. 

Whether starting or subbing, I think JD bangs in a goal tonight.  

Edited October 10, 2021 by dyslexic nam

[Approve My Account Pls]

49 minutes ago, Kadenge said:

The quality of our squad depth in this window is weaker than for window 1 and that's a fact. We don't have Atiba & Larin.

For sure our depth is weaker, but I wouldn't necessarily say the guys we're plugging in make me lack confidence. If anything, in addition to the guys you named, this could be a huge opportunity for Wotherspoon to show his worth to our program. I've liked what he's brought in limited minutes, but to be fair, he's only played weaker teams earlier in qualifiers and meaningless minutes once the win is secured against ES. Today or Wednesday could be a big chance for him.

but ya up top is where i'm also shitting it a bit 

[CanadaFan123]

24 minutes ago, gator said:

I didn't think David was lousy, just starved for service, he didn't see much of the ball and at times had to drop deep to help out in the midfield, he did make a mess of that 3 on 2 late on but that was also a poor pass from Davies, David pressed well I thought for 80 minutes! I am not concerned about him whatsoever, I am sure he will play well whether that is tonight or Wednesday!

He did well with his positioning but when you’re starved for service you need to find a way to contribute and show quality in build up. He didn’t do that.